What if rail travel was charged strictly by the mile.

What would the effect on rail travel be in the UK if fares on the NR network were charged strictly by the distance travelled

£1 per mile for a journey of 1-15 miles
95p per mile for a journey of 15-35 miles
80p per mile for a journey of 35-60 miles
75p per mile for a journey of 60-90 miles
65p per mile for a jouney of 90-125 miles
60p per mile for a journey of 125-170 miles
50p per mile for a journey of over 170 miles

7-day seasons would be calculated at 75% of the above rates
Monthly seasons would be calculated at 65% of the above rates.
Annual seasons would be calculated at 55% of the above rates

can I give you some example journeys for you to calculate the fares for me?



1) Please give me the proposed fares from York to Whitby for a day return, avoiding Darlington, and tell me how this fare is calculated and whether you think it will be competitive with the coach service provided by Coastliner that costs only slightly more than the current rail ticket price but offers a shorter journey time? Also if I was to start the journey at Church Fenton, would that add to the cost?

2) Please give me the proposed fares from York to London for a day return, and if this is lower than current prices, tell me where the revenue will be brought in to compensate EC for the revenue loss?

3) Please give me the proposed fares for a return from Peterborough to Leicester, and also Peterborough to Nottingham, and let me know how you are calculating the mileage and whether under your system it will be permitted to travel from Peterborough to Nottingham via Leicester or not, and if someone does go via Leicester what excess will be charged (if any)?

4) Please give me the proposed fares for a return from London St Pancras to Ashford Intl (and any routeing options you wish to provide) and would those fares apply from, say, London Charing Cross to Ashford Intl? Please give me your calculations for different termini, if they vary.

You can get mileages from the NRT, or the "carbon emissions" options on WebTIS-powered sites, or from sites such as Railmiles.

In the highly unlikely event that these questions can be answered in a way that would be satisfactory to the DfT, ATOC, the TOCs, and passengers, then I will be quite shocked.

I don't use trains very often - I'd use them less under such a charging regime. Car would be far cheaper.

Harlesden said:

What would the effect on rail travel be in the UK if fares on the NR network were charged strictly by the distance travelled

£1 per mile for a journey of 1-15 miles
95p per mile for a journey of 15-35 miles
80p per mile for a journey of 35-60 miles
75p per mile for a journey of 60-90 miles
65p per mile for a jouney of 90-125 miles
60p per mile for a journey of 125-170 miles
50p per mile for a journey of over 170 miles

7-day seasons would be calculated at 75% of the above rates
Monthly seasons would be calculated at 65% of the above rates.
Annual seasons would be calculated at 55% of the above rates

Click to expand...

Seems sensible in theory. How do you encourage useage of alternative lines though? Like trying to get Leeds Sheffield passengers off the XC and onto Sheffield Semi fasts.

Harlesden said:

What would the effect on rail travel be in the UK if fares on the NR network were charged strictly by the distance travelled

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It would be as if we had learned nothing in the last 230 years *.

There would be no understanding of Market Economics, no appreciation that the interests of suppliers and consumers can be used to influence demand and supply.

In short, I expect we would have widespread anger from passengers at the overcrowded trains, anger from the operators at incurring the expense of running empty services, and ultimately, a market failure.

* [I'm thinking of the chap on the £20 note, here :]

Could the system mentioned above be used for off peak tickets, with a percentage increase for anytime tickets and decrease for super off peak? Advance tickets could still be sold at a discount.

I'm sure it wouldn't be the case for all journeys, but for Retford to London Kings Cross, the fare is comparable to what it is currently:

Retford is 138 miles from London Kings Cross.
138 x .60= £82.80

An Any Permitted Off Peak Return (can't see a single fare) is £114. An Any Permitted Anytime Return is £174. An Anytime single, by comparison, is £87.

The cheapest single ticket that you can buy on the day is Super Off Peak Single, Route Hull Trains Only for £49.

It would certainly allow passengers to understand how the fare is calculated as there is no real pattern to the fares at present. That said, the discounted advanced tickets and route/TOC specific tickets would need to stay. The other problem would be the splitting of the revenue.

I don't think it matters how the fares are calculated particularly.

For instance passengers travelling west from London on the slower SWT services are offered cheaper fares because it's slower than FGW.

That's fairly easy to understand and offers a sensible choice. Likewise on London Midland as compared with Virgin, or Southern compared with SWT to Southampton, and others besides. The price is what it is there's no point trying to break it down.

ryan125hst said:

Could the system mentioned above be used for off peak tickets, with a percentage increase for anytime tickets and decrease for super off peak? Advance tickets could still be sold at a discount.

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I have my doubts but I am willing to be proved wrong

Can I give you some journeys for you to calculate the cost of?

If so, how about these three to begin with:

• York - Sheffield : Please give me the details of the fares I would pay for a return journey at the 3 price levels you state, and what restrictions would apply to the (Super) Off Peak fares please?
• York - Derby: Please give me the details of the fares I would pay for a return journey at the 3 price levels you state, and what restrictions would apply to the (Super) Off Peak fares please?
• Sheffield - Derby: Please give me the details of the fares I would pay for a return journey at the 3 price levels you state, and what restrictions would apply to the (Super) Off Peak fares please?

Harlesden said:

What would the effect on rail travel be in the UK if fares on the NR network were charged strictly by the distance travelled

£1 per mile for a journey of 1-15 miles
95p per mile for a journey of 15-35 miles
80p per mile for a journey of 35-60 miles
75p per mile for a journey of 60-90 miles
65p per mile for a jouney of 90-125 miles
60p per mile for a journey of 125-170 miles
50p per mile for a journey of over 170 miles

7-day seasons would be calculated at 75% of the above rates
Monthly seasons would be calculated at 65% of the above rates.
Annual seasons would be calculated at 55% of the above rates

Click to expand...

Blimey mate, that would cost me £9 to get to town and back and its only a ten to fifteen minute journey, 4 1/2 miles each way. Currently it costs £2.80 off peak or £3.60 on peak.

ryan125hst said:

for Retford to London Kings Cross, the fare is comparable to what it is currently:

Retford is 138 miles from London Kings Cross.
138 x .60= £82.80

An Any Permitted Off Peak Return is £114. An Any Permitted Anytime Return is £174.

Click to expand...

For a return, it's unclear if Harlesden's proposed discount for greater mileage is intended to the cumulative mileage or not, but let's assume it does, so for a return we're looking at 276 x £0.50, so £138.

That's a reduction compared to the Anytime Return at £174, so big business is happy and there's revenue loss to the railway from premium customers.

But that's a lot more than the Off Peak Return, which is £114 and astronmical compared to the Super Off Peak Return at £59.00.

This would see most walk-up passengers boycotting East Coast services, and instead crowding onto the limited number of Hull Trains services.

So I don't think Harlesden's flat mileage rate would work.

Your idea of discounts and increases for Super Off Peak and Anytime respectively, is more sensible, but until you find the figures all I can say is that I am very sceptical it could actually be viable.

So, over to you....!

ryan125hst said:

The other problem would be the splitting of the revenue.

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That's a different matter entirely, and is determined through ORCATS.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

fowler9 said:

Blimey mate, that would cost me £9 to get to town and back and its only a ten to fifteen minute journey.

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Fares aren't determined by journey time as that would not work.

Value cannot be determined by journey time, though the faster any given journey is, the more attractive it is to the customer. This means a lower journey time can actually attract a premium.

My main concern about such a system would be that it would not enable operators to effectively discriminate between passengers with higher and lower willingness to pay.

OK. Dumb idea.
Perhaps current fare structures are not so bad after all.
Mr. Yorkie, sir, I did PM you about a Fares Workshop but you never got back to me.
Thread can be removed if desired now.
Actually, fowler9, £9 to "get to town and back" isn't so bad when you consider that a certain rail company operating largely in tunnel charges a whopping £4.50 cash for journeys of less than a mile within the centre of town, taking 2-3 minutes.

Any change to the fare structure would have to:
- be revenue neutral for the TOC/NR (so the cash coming in to run the service stays the same)
- provide EVERY passenger with a ticket that is at worst the same price, (but everybody really wants a cheaper ticket for their journey under a new system).
- be low cost to implement (as otherwise there is no chance the money will be available to do it)
- be easy to understand (as the main moan about tickets is they are too difficult to follow)

If anybody can come up with a system that ticks all these boxes, they deserve a Nobel Prize (probably the one for fiction!)

yorkie said:

For a return, it's unclear if Harlesden's proposed discount for greater mileage is intended to the cumulative mileage or not, but let's assume it does, so for a return we're looking at 276 x £0.50, so £138.

That's a reduction compared to the Anytime Return at £174, so big business is happy and there's revenue loss to the railway from premium customers.

But that's a lot more than the Off Peak Return, which is £114 and astronmical compared to the Super Off Peak Return at £59.00.

This would see most walk-up passengers boycotting East Coast services, and instead crowding onto the limited number of Hull Trains services.

So I don't think Harlesden's flat mileage rate would work.

Your idea of discounts and increases for Super Off Peak and Anytime respectively, is more sensible, but until you find the figures all I can say is that I am very sceptical it could actually be viable.

So, over to you....!

That's a different matter entirely, and is determined through ORCATS.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Fares aren't determined by journey time as that would not work.

Value cannot be determined by journey time, though the faster any given journey is, the more attractive it is to the customer. This means a lower journey time can actually attract a premium.

Click to expand...

I know value cannot be determined by journey time but if you think anyone is going to pay £9 to get from West Allerton to Lime Street and back on a 142 you are frankly barking mad. Not when an off peak Saveaway is just over a third of that price and a daily Arriva pass costs less than half.

Harlesden said:

Actually, fowler9, £9 to "get to town and back" isn't so bad when you consider that a certain rail company operating largely in tunnel charges a whopping £4.50 cash for journeys of less than a mile within the centre of town, taking 2-3 minutes.

Click to expand...

That is of course problem with zonal systems by its very nature some journeys are very expensive (Kings Cross to Euston for instance) whilst for the same price you could travel from Kings Cross all the way to Wimbledon a journey of around half an hour.

Personally speaking I do not believe it fair to compare a zonal structure with the more traditional point to point structure.

Harlesden said:

OK. Dumb idea.
Perhaps current fare structures are not so bad after all.

Click to expand...

Damn! I was looking forward to seeing some figures! This always happens....

(Hopefully ryan125hst will not disappoint )

In fact someone did some calculations using the much lower rate of 25p/mile here.

Some journeys such as York - Whitby would be totally unviable, and rail ceases to be able to compete with road transport at such high prices.

The really popular journeys would reduce in price, with an unrestricted York - London return being lower than the current Super Off Peak, and local journeys in the London area halving in price.

Harlesden said:

Mr. Yorkie, sir, I did PM you about a Fares Workshop but you never got back to me.

Click to expand...

Sorry, there are no fares workshops currently planned in the London area, but we will post on the Fares Workshops thread when we have any idea of possible dates. Spring or Summer 2014, maybe.

Harlesden said:

Thread can be removed if desired now.

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We don't desire that.

Harlesden said:

Actually, fowler9, £9 to "get to town and back" isn't so bad when you consider that a certain rail company operating largely in tunnel charges a whopping £4.50 cash for journeys of less than a mile within the centre of town, taking 2-3 minutes.

Click to expand...

For a journey less than a mile, involving deep tunnels, rail would not normally be the most appropriate mode of transport, and the single fares would reflect that. Also the vast majority of people wishing to undertake such journeys would absolutely not be paying cash single fares anyway.

Harlesden said:

OK. Dumb idea.
Perhaps current fare structures are not so bad after all.
Mr. Yorkie, sir, I did PM you about a Fares Workshop but you never got back to me.
Thread can be removed if desired now.
Actually, fowler9, £9 to "get to town and back" isn't so bad when you consider that a certain rail company operating largely in tunnel charges a whopping £4.50 cash for journeys of less than a mile within the centre of town, taking 2-3 minutes.

Click to expand...

Its not dumb mate, any idea is worth debating especially given the current wacky fare structure. One thing I will say though is that £9 for a return from West Allerton to Lime Street is certainly not a not so bad fare. Northern Rail would be better off closing West Allerton and Mossley Hill, they'd loose less money by not having to pay the staff. While they are at it the various companies involved could also close Cressington, Aigburth, St Michaels and pretty much any commuter station within 15 miles of Liverpool.

yorkie said:

(Hopefully ryan125hst will not disappoint )

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I'm able to have a look now! Apologies for the wait. My mum broke her cuboid bone in her right foot (see diagram here) about a week an a half ago. As a result, my sister, Dad and I have had to do everything that she normally would do. I made a start for you, and then she shouted me to go and take the washing downstairs- you can't carry anything when on crutches! At least it will prepare me for University and later life.

From what I have already seen, the price per mile suggested is far too high for shorter routes (you'll see what I mean shortly). I'll probably tweak it slightly to show how it could work with lower fares in addition to using the figures Harlesden provided.

ryan125hst - I look forward to seeing your proposals, though I hope you won't mind me critiquing them

One of the claims of mileage based pricing (and I am not suggesting you are claiming this) is that it "eliminates anomalies" and "avoids the need to use a combination of tickets", but I believe neither of these are the case, and in fact, it means more use of combinations (aka 'splitting') would need to be done to get affordable fares when travelling at times considered to be 'peak'.

fowler9 said:

Northern Rail would be better off closing West Allerton and Mossley Hill, they'd loose less money by not having to pay the staff. While they are at it the various companies involved could also close Cressington, Aigburth, St Michaels and pretty much any commuter station within 15 miles of Liverpool.

Click to expand...

It's certainly not up to a Train Operating Company to close any station! I would suggest any such discussions take place in a separate thread (in Stations & Infrastructure) though, as it's well beyond the scope of this one.

yorkie said:

It's certainly not up to a Train Operating Company to close any station! I would suggest any such discussions take place in a separate thread (in Stations & Infrastructure) though, as it's well beyond the scope of this one.

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Apologies mate. Didn't mean to drag things off subject. I know it wouldn't be down to the TOC. Just that I think that station closures would happen if that fare structure was brought in. I do however feel that if I had put that in the stations and infrastructure section someone would say it was about train fares.

fowler9 said:

Apologies mate. Didn't mean to drag things off subject. I know it wouldn't be down to the TOC. Just that I think that station closures would happen if that fare structure was brought in.

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It may be that if TOCs are forced to have fares they don't want, they may try to request a closure, but it would be very bad PR, and they would not be able to make the decision so it wouldn't necessarily mean anything happens.

I think market based pricing is very much here to stay, in fact fares are becoming more and more based on yield management techniques all the time. Any proposals to take things back to the 19th century would not go down well with many.

yorkie said:

It may be that if TOCs are forced to have fares they don't want, they may try to request a closure, but it would be very bad PR, and they would not be able to make the decision so it wouldn't necessarily mean anything happens.

I think market based pricing is very much here to stay, in fact fares are becoming more and more based on yield management techniques all the time. Any proposals to take things back to the 19th century would not go down well with many.

Click to expand...

Spot on mate. I'm relatively happy with the fare structure anyway. Its a bit mad sometimes but such is life.

yorkie said:

I have my doubts but I am willing to be proved wrong

Can I give you some journeys for you to calculate the cost of?

If so, how about these three to begin with:

• York - Sheffield : Please give me the details of the fares I would pay for a return journey at the 3 price levels you state, and what restrictions would apply to the (Super) Off Peak fares please?
• York - Derby: Please give me the details of the fares I would pay for a return journey at the 3 price levels you state, and what restrictions would apply to the (Super) Off Peak fares please?
• Sheffield - Derby: Please give me the details of the fares I would pay for a return journey at the 3 price levels you state, and what restrictions would apply to the (Super) Off Peak fares please?

Click to expand...

You certainly can While you have kind of thrown me in at the deep end so to speak, given that Harlesden has not explained how return fares would be calculated (would it be double the single fare, or discounted as now. Often, the return fare is only tens of pence more than a single ticket I believe). I was also only suggesting adding a percentage on for anytime tickets, and taking a percentage off for super off peak tickets.

I’m prepared to give it a go though

From what I worked out for Retford to London Kings Cross, it would appear that the fares calculated would be suitable as Off Peak fares. Based on this:

•York – Sheffield is 46 miles (I’ll round the chains up or down for the purposes of ticketing ). This would mean that a single would be:

46 x £0.80 = £36.80

By comparison, an Anytime Day Single (there’s no Off Peak single fare shown on BR Fares), is £17.70. This is clearly too expensive, particularly if you were to double that fare to £73.60 for a return journey!

If I was to divide £17.70 by 46 miles, it works out at £0.3848 per miles (so about 40p).

If this was the case, for a return fare, I would add about 10%. Clearly paying almost £40 return would be unreasonable, but the difference between a single and a return ticket is sometimes ridiculously low!

From this then:
Off Peak Single: £17.70
Off Peak Return: £17.70 x 1.1 = £19.47 (It’s currently £19).
Super Off Peak Return: £19.47 x 0.70 (a 30% discount) = £13.70 (This fare doesn’t exist on this flow at present).
Anytime Return: £19.47 x 1.3 (a 30% increase) = £25.31 (It is currently £23).

This looks reasonable at the minute as the fares are close to the present day figures. The 30% increase and decrease was a figure that I made up to see if it worked. Given the fact that it is reasonable close to the Anytime Return fare, I would say it isn’t too bad.

•York – Derby is 80 miles

80 x £0.75 = £60

Again, this is a little high as the Off Peak Single is currently £40.60, and an Off Peak Return is £41.60. (a difference of just £1, or 2.46% (3s.f.) )
Adjusting it again to make the fares more reasonable,

80 x £0.5 = £40

This is 10p per miles more than the fare above, and is just 60p cheaper than the current fare. Looking at this, it seems that (so far at least), Harlesden has got it wrong by charging a higher price for a shorter distance. It appears that the greater the distance, the higher the price per miles should be. Don’t forget that travelling a greater distance regularly means higher speed trains with greater comfort (air conditioning, catering, plug sockets, WiFi, more toilets) as well as infrastructure that is suitable for higher speed running).

Based on this then:
Off Peak Single: £40
Off Peak Return: £40 x 1.1 = £44 (slightly more than at present, but reasonable).
Super Off Peak Return: £44 x 0.7 = £30.80 This fare doesn’t exist on this flow at present).
Anytime Return: £44 x 1.3 = £57.20 (This is £32.30 less than the current fare). It seems more reasonable to me as the Anytime return fare is currently 215% more than the Off Peak Return!)

Is this looking reasonable so far Yorkie? The only problem would be the revenue lost from the cheaper SOR (Anytime Return) fare. However, could this be minimised as more passengers may choose to buy the SOR ticket due to it being more reasonably priced?

•Sheffield – Derby is 36 miles (I see what you are doing here )

36 x £0.8 = £28.80

The current Off Peak Single is £10.70, so this fare is approaching triple the price. As with the previous two examples, this would never work as there would be masses of complaints and people choosing to drive or use the bus.

Going back to my pricing structure, however:

Off Peak Single: 36 x £0.4 = £14.40 (the current fare is £10.70, so slightly more expensive).

Off Peak Return: £14.40 x 1.1 = £15.84 (cheaper than the £19.60 it would currently cost you [this is for the SVR, not the CDR fare]).

Super Off Peak Return: £15.84 x 0.7 = £11.09

Anytime Return: £15.84 x 1.3 = £20.59

The Anytime Return is actually just 29p more than the current Anytime Day Return (SDR) fare, but is £13.91 cheaper than the Anytime Return (SOR) fare. It is likely that the percentages used to calculate the Anytime fares need to be slightly higher, maybe a 35% to 40% increase. It should, however, be reasonable. The 215% increase mentioned above is ridiculous!

As a final point, putting the two Off Peak Return fares together:

York to Sheffield: £19.47
Sheffield to Derby: £15.84
York to Derby (direct ticket): £44
York to Derby (split ticket): £35.31

Here, a split ticket would save £8.59. In my defence, split ticketing is common at present anyway, so I doubt if it would cause too many problems.

Also, if the York to Derby fare was calculated at 40p per mile:
Off Peak Single: 80 x £0.4 = £32
Off Peak Return: £32 x 1.1 = £35.20

This is (very slightly) cheaper than a split ticket, and £6.40 cheaper than the current Off Peak Return.

It’s worth pointing out that buying split tickets would also save money on the York to Derby fare currently:
York to Sheffield Off Peak Return: £19
Sheffield to Derby Off Peak Return: £10.70
York to Derby Off Peak Return (direct ticket): £41.60
York to Derby Off Peak Return (split ticket): £19 + £10.70 = £29.70

This is a saving of £11.90. If I have worked everything out correctly, that means that it will actually generate more revenue for the TOC’s as buying a split ticket, while still cheaper, will save passengers (sorry, customers ) less than they currently do.

What do you think everyone?

yorkie said:

ryan125hst - I look forward to seeing your proposals, though I hope you won't mind me critiquing them

Click to expand...

Over to Yorkie to go over my new pricing structure with a fine tooth comb and probably rip it to pieces (I’m fine with that by the way. I’ve probably missed something somewhere!).

I can never see the fares being changed to a different model:

If fares on a route go up, the public will complain

If fares on a route go down, the TOC's will complain with tax payers footing the bill.

It doesn't seem worth while.....

yorkie said:

For a return, it's unclear if Harlesden's proposed discount for greater mileage is intended to the cumulative mileage or not, but let's assume it does, so for a return we're looking at 276 x £0.50, so £138.

That's a reduction compared to the Anytime Return at £174, so big business is happy and there's revenue loss to the railway from premium customers.

But that's a lot more than the Off Peak Return, which is £114 and astronmical compared to the Super Off Peak Return at £59.00.

This would see most walk-up passengers boycotting East Coast services, and instead crowding onto the limited number of Hull Trains services.

So I don't think Harlesden's flat mileage rate would work.

Your idea of discounts and increases for Super Off Peak and Anytime respectively, is more sensible, but until you find the figures all I can say is that I am very sceptical it could actually be viable.

So, over to you....!

Click to expand...

That's why I have still included the Anytime and Super Off Peak fares as the fares model suggested by Harlesden seemed more suitable for Off Peak single fares.

yorkie said:

That's a different matter entirely, and is determined through ORCATS.

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I understand that. I was wondering if the new pricing system would effect the splitting of revenue. Looking at my examples above, I see no reason why the current system couldn't remain.

ryan125hst said:

•York – Sheffield is 46 miles (I’ll round the chains up or down for the purposes of ticketing ).

Click to expand...

What route is that? Because there are at least three: Via Leeds, via Doncaster and via Ponterfract. If the price is different how do you cope with a passenger travelling on a more expensive route and how about travelling on a cheaper route? Does this mean that a passenger would have to commit to a route before travel? Currently the only single fare is valid on all routes without having to choose.

I think it could be feasible with some thought, but it isn't likely to happen.

I would have 2 classes of tickets. One priced per rail mile that allowed Break of Journey, and another priced as the crow flies where BoJ was forbidden. This would help with the York to Whitby problem.

Also, the price per rail mile would have to be charged at different rates on different lines (and be higher at the London ends), so a Via ECML would cost more than a Via MidlandMainline. I'm sure this could all be calculated quite easily by a computer

A Stoke-on-Trent to Lowestoft Via Derby Anytime single is £72.00, under your rules this would be increased to £103.75.

ainsworth74 said:

What route is that? Because there are at least three: Via Leeds, via Doncaster and via Ponterfract. If the price is different how do you cope with a passenger travelling on a more expensive route and how about travelling on a cheaper route? Does this mean that a passenger would have to commit to a route before travel? Currently the only single fare is valid on all routes without having to choose.

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The best solution would probably be to allow the ticket to be valid on all permitted routes with the ticket being priced according to the most direct/quickest route. While I'm sure there are examples where this isn't the case, it is generally how tickets currently work. For example, a York to Leeds Off Peak Day Return* Route: Any Permitted is £12.30, while a Off Peak Day Return Route: Via Harrogate is £11.10, despite it being a longer route. This would fall under the category of discounts being available for advance tickets and Route/TOC specific tickets. On the other hand, it would also be possible for tickets to state "Route: Not via x" to prevent customers from travelling on a longer route if a higher fare need to apply. In this case, an Any Permitted could be based on the longest route, with the Not via x tickets calculated for other routes. Would that work?

What would Harlesden's plan be in this situation?

* There are no examples where this is the case for an Anytime or Off Peak Return ticket.

ryan125hst said:

The best solution would probably be to allow the ticket to be valid on all permitted routes with the ticket being priced according to the most direct/quickest route. While I'm sure there are examples where this isn't the case, it is generally how tickets currently work. For example, a York to Leeds Off Peak Day Return* Route: Any Permitted is £12.30, while a Off Peak Day Return Route: Via Harrogate is £11.10, despite it being a longer route. This would fall under the category of discounts being available for advance tickets and Route/TOC specific tickets. On the other hand, it would also be possible for tickets to state "Route: Not via x" to prevent customers from travelling on a longer route if a higher fare need to apply. In this case, an Any Permitted could be based on the longest route, with the Not via x tickets calculated for other routes. Would that work?

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In which case why change anything?!

You have just literally described the existing system. The only difference is that rather than using market based pricing you're using mileage based pricing. And because that leads to some fares jumping in price and others falling dramatically you're also applying other modifiers to boost/lower the price. Also you're now introducing a whole raft of TOC/Route specific tickets where once there was just an Any Permitted. I'm unclear how any of this is an improvement for the passenger?!