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Trog

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Not necessarily, since the station is only a few hundred metres long you could cut and cover the fast lines underneath the station. Its just you can't tunnel the entire approach without it becoming absurdly expensive.

So now we need extra land both sides of the line and both sides of the station, so we can fit in the ramps down into the tunnels under the stations. It would also make maintenance difficult and a dipped tunnel is going to be a drainage liability as it may well need pumping to keep it dry.
 
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HSTEd

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I'm having difficulty picturing how this allows the loops without excessive land take - any chance of a sketch?

Something like this

The two tracks approach, as we get close to the station then they move apart slightly with pointwork generating the two inner 'loop' lines.
As trains will already have decelerated below 300kph before this work (As demonstrated by the Bombardier OOC study) these inner lines can be put relatively close together.

As we approach the station the fast lines on the outside will drop (using our allowed 2.5%+ gradients) into concrete trenches and go into cut and cover tunnels, allowing the loop lines (where trains will be moving relatively slowly this late in the station approach) to flare out so they are directly over them.
This will provide the space between them for the regulation platform, that can be built to the minimum allowable width because it has a low train passing speed as every train passing is stopping.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
So now we need extra land both sides of the line and both sides of the station, so we can fit in the ramps down into the tunnels under the stations. It would also make maintenance difficult and a dipped tunnel is going to be a drainage liability as it may well need pumping to keep it dry.
Slab track in the station vicinity would reduce the need for regular maintenance access.
And I very much doubt you would need the 9m of total spacing you would otherwise need if you flared the high speed lines around the outside of the stopping lines. [And if the tunnels are more epensive than the extra space then the land take problem clearly isn't critical in the first place]

Additionally the tunnels would be short enough to reduce the problems caused by overpressures in the tunnels that would allow for relatively compact cross sections despite the high speed.

And the cost of a few low power redundant pumps is not going to make any difference to the cost of the project. Pumping arrangements were not an enormous part of the cost of Stratford International After all.
 
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Deerfold

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this is such an interesting topic

i am doing it for my dissertation and would be very grateful if anybody could fill in my 5 min survey about the perception of hs2

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/VMCKJMX

thanks guys

You could do with having that proofread. Lots of mistakes in the English and missing punctuation.

Why do questions 5 and 8 not have a comment box - these are both questions where I'd have preferred to be able to clarify my answer as they're not as simple as the answers suggest? The same applies to all the questions on the final sheet of questions about HS2.
 

irish_rail

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So 10-15 years down the line and HS2 is running. What will likely happen to current WCML tracction, ie will Pendolinos be replaced with commuter/ metro type stock or with something bordering on Intercity?

Is for example a passenger at Liverpool going to have to choose between a metro interior with doors all along the coach and lots of standing room etc at standard fare for a trip to London, or have to pay a premium fare for a better level of comfort on HS2? Or will they have a CREDIBLE alternative to HS2 service? I do hope that the Virgin operation (or whoever is running it by then) doesnt become a glorified metro forcing people onto HS2 ....

Just want some thoughts on the probable state of play on the future none HS2 traction please....
 
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Ianno87

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So 10-15 years down the line and HS2 is running. What will likely happen to current WCML tracction, ie will Pendolinos be replaced with commuter/ metro type stock or with something bordering on Intercity?

Is for example a passenger at Liverpool going to have to choose between a metro interior with doors all along the coach and lots of standing room etc at standard fare for a trip to London, or have to pay a premium fare for a better level of comfort on HS2? Or will they have a CREDIBLE alternative to HS2 service? I do hope that the Virgin operation (or whoever is running it by then) doesnt become a glorified metro forcing people onto HS2 ....

Just want some thoughts on the probable state of play on the future none HS2 traction please....

Not much different to today really then? Get a cheap ticket on metro stock to London (London Midland) or pay a premium fare to get there on a Pendolino.
 

Ironside

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So 10-15 years down the line and HS2 is running. What will likely happen to current WCML tracction, ie will Pendolinos be replaced with commuter/ metro type stock or with something bordering on Intercity?

Is for example a passenger at Liverpool going to have to choose between a metro interior with doors all along the coach and lots of standing room etc at standard fare for a trip to London, or have to pay a premium fare for a better level of comfort on HS2? Or will they have a CREDIBLE alternative to HS2 service? I do hope that the Virgin operation (or whoever is running it by then) doesnt become a glorified metro forcing people onto HS2 ....

Just want some thoughts on the probable state of play on the future none HS2 traction please....

There should be intercity style trains for the faster WCML trains that will be the fast trains for Milton Keynes. A ticket for these trains (Liverpool to London) unlikely to be cheaper than HS2 as the high speed line will have a lot of capacity to fill and lower running costs.
 

quantinghome

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I imagine the pendos will carry on but with connectivity the priority rather than end to end speed, so more intermediate stops. Not sure whether 11 carriages would be needed. The interesting decision will be what the pendos are replaced with when they come to the end of their life.
 

absolutelymilk

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I imagine the pendos will carry on but with connectivity the priority rather than end to end speed, so more intermediate stops. Not sure whether 11 carriages would be needed. The interesting decision will be what the pendos are replaced with when they come to the end of their life.

Yes, something like Cross-country is now, running through from Scotland to Penzance but with very few people doing the entire journey. Most people will be going to or from a station that isn't on the HS2 route. The 2013 economic case for HS2 had 6 (non-HS2) fast trains an hour out of Euston, with all of them calling at Milton Keynes (as opposed to 3 currently)
 
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Chester1

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I imagine the pendos will carry on but with connectivity the priority rather than end to end speed, so more intermediate stops. Not sure whether 11 carriages would be needed. The interesting decision will be what the pendos are replaced with when they come to the end of their life.

Yes, something like Cross-country is now, running through from Scotland to Penzance but with very few people doing the entire journey. Most people will be going to or from a station that isn't on the HS2 route. The 2013 economic case for HS2 had 6 (non-HS2) fast trains an hour out of Euston, with all of them calling at Milton Keynes (as opposed to 3 currently)

Lord Adonis suggested last year that Pendalinos could be cascaded to Manchester to Sheffield services post electrification. That maybe slightly optimistic and perhaps cascading Voyagers is more likely!

North Wales and Blackpool will need fast services post HS2 which means one tilting train service per hour after HS2 is likely. Between 2026 and 2033 some of the existing Scotland, Liverpool and Manchester services could be retained if there is a huge shortgage of capacity before HS2 captive stock can reach Manchester.
 

LesF

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I expect there'll be a new generation of tilting trains to replace the Pendos when they die. WCML will be just as bendy as it is now and it'll be unacceptable for the new stock to be slower - especially to Scotland (if they're still in the UK - if not Pacers will do).
X Country have locked the tilting mechanisms out of use on their 221 Voyagers, probably because of the cost of maintenance.
HS2 now intend to use only UK gauge trains on phase 1.
We don't know what stock will be available in 2026 but Talgo's passive tilting models do not need power or trackside actuators in order to tilt. Being exceptionally short, there's less throw therefore more space inside. Hopefully the replacement will have Pendo's speed, smooth ride and quietness, but not the cramped and claustrophobic cabins, or the smelly toilets that Virgin claimed to have cured then said they would have another try at rectifying.
So my choice for a replacement is a passive tilting, articulated train at UK gauge, made in Britain and exported all over the world.
 

The Ham

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Given that passenger numbers have broadly doubled since 2000 and could broadly double again by 2033 it is likely that by then there could be 400 passengers for every 100 at privatisation.

If 75% of passengers move over to HS2 then that would mean that on the WCML there would be same number of passengers as there was in 2000 (100 for every 100 in 2000).

If the percentage of passengers moving to HS2 is higher, say 87.5% then there would be half the number of passengers (50 for every 100 in 2000).

However it wouldn't be spread evenly. For instance there would be little need for WCML services to travel from London to Manchester. Even if some services carried on doing it so as serve the local stations there wouldn't need to be as many per hour. That then means that there scope for more services to head off​ from the main routes. By doing so they potentially could tap into markets where there is under provision and so passenger numbers could jump.

That could mean that for some services it there could still be demand for 9 coach trains, for others it could be that they Max out at 5 or 6 coaches for most of the day. Although they would probably be the reverse of where the most demand is currently.
 

Chester1

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I expect there'll be a new generation of tilting trains to replace the Pendos when they die. WCML will be just as bendy as it is now and it'll be unacceptable for the new stock to be slower - especially to Scotland (if they're still in the UK - if not Pacers will do).
X Country have locked the tilting mechanisms out of use on their 221 Voyagers, probably because of the cost of maintenance.
HS2 now intend to use only UK gauge trains on phase 1.
We don't know what stock will be available in 2026 but Talgo's passive tilting models do not need power or trackside actuators in order to tilt. Being exceptionally short, there's less throw therefore more space inside. Hopefully the replacement will have Pendo's speed, smooth ride and quietness, but not the cramped and claustrophobic cabins, or the smelly toilets that Virgin claimed to have cured then said they would have another try at rectifying.
So my choice for a replacement is a passive tilting, articulated train at UK gauge, made in Britain and exported all over the world.

I completely disagree. There will not be sufficient demand for tilting trains to justify an order of bespoke stock. Scotland's services to London (and maybe Birmingham) will be 110/220mph classic compatible HS2 trains. Tilting is basically irrelevant north of Preston because too little of the line is above 110mph. The remaining services will have more stops making the time saving between 110mph and 125mph less important. The later 350s have a 110mph top speed and are the sort of train that would be suitable for most WCML services. Residual ICWC services such as Chester/North Wales will eventually be electrified or run with non tilting stock, they don't tilt from Crewe to Holyhead anyway. Chester could justify a HS2 classic compatible service every couple of hours joining with another 10 car unit at Crewe or Birmingham Interchange. The only service that would definately get slower without new tilting stock or electrification would be London to Holyhead. The cost of keeping 10 Voyagers in use past their life expectancy to run the service will be lower than new bespoke stock. In the long term every other Voyager and Meridian could be used for spare parts and this could continue probably into the 2040s.
 

Bald Rick

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Tilting is basically irrelevant north of Preston because too little of the line is above 110mph. The remaining services will have more stops making the time saving between 110mph and 125mph less important.

Tilting is absolutely relevant north of Preston. Tilt is not required per se to get to 125mph; indeed there are long sections of the WCML where 125mph is achieved without the need for tilt (almost the whole way from Northchurch tunnel to Leighton Buzzard, or Wolverhampton to Stafford for example).

Tilt enables a speed increase of around 20% across all speed ranges, although in practice it is only used above about 50mph. There are plenty of curves north of Lancaster that have had their speeds raised from c80mph to c100mph and so on, and as every practitioner of line speed profiles knows, you save more time improving slow speed restrictions than improving fast speed restrictions.
 

Roast Veg

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All told it saves approximately 30 minutes between Preston and Glasgow.
 

RichmondCommu

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There should be intercity style trains for the faster WCML trains that will be the fast trains for Milton Keynes. A ticket for these trains (Liverpool to London) unlikely to be cheaper than HS2 as the high speed line will have a lot of capacity to fill and lower running costs.

However the Government will be looking to get a substantial return on it's investment as soon as possible which will mean that the TOC will be looking for huge profit margins. North of Birmingham I think the HS2 TOC will struggle to fill its trains so the onus will be on making as much money as they can from Birmingham to London which I think will include charging passengers a premium. I think it's worth noting here that many LGV routes do not generate enough revenue to make a profit.
 

Bald Rick

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North of Birmingham I think the HS2 TOC will struggle to fill its trains so the onus will be on making as much money as they can from Birmingham to London which I think will include charging passengers a premium.

Why do you think that? There will be only one TOC* operating Manchester / Liverpool / Chester / Preston / Glasgow / Edinburgh to London. It will be in their interests to fill the trains via HS2 and price accordingly for all routes.

* excluding the sleeper. But, then, post Phase 2, and the reality of a c3h30 London - Glasgow / Edinburgh, I think the lowland sleeper will be in trouble.
 

RichmondCommu

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Why do you think that? There will be only one TOC* operating Manchester / Liverpool / Chester / Preston / Glasgow / Edinburgh to London. It will be in their interests to fill the trains via HS2 and price accordingly for all routes.

Where do all these extra customers come from? It seems to me that the real growth market is in the South East which with HS2 will extend to Birmingham. I can't for the life of me see how London to Manchester / Liverpool / Leeds / Sheffield will be a growth market.
 

Chester1

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Tilting is absolutely relevant north of Preston. Tilt is not required per se to get to 125mph; indeed there are long sections of the WCML where 125mph is achieved without the need for tilt (almost the whole way from Northchurch tunnel to Leighton Buzzard, or Wolverhampton to Stafford for example).

Tilt enables a speed increase of around 20% across all speed ranges, although in practice it is only used above about 50mph. There are plenty of curves north of Lancaster that have had their speeds raised from c80mph to c100mph and so on, and as every practitioner of line speed profiles knows, you save more time improving slow speed restrictions than improving fast speed restrictions.

HS2 CC trains should have significantly faster acceleration than Pendolinos and certainly Voyagers which will reduce the time penalty. The planned HS2 services to Scotland should provide all the capacity neccessary between London/Birmingham to Glasgow and most the capacity neccessary between London and Edinburgh. There has been no signal from the government that there will be tilting trains in Scotland after 2033.
 

Roast Veg

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Quite the opposite, the government has specifically said that it is not a requirement (a mistake IMO). However, Alstom featured a tilting AGV as their public bidding intention way back, and some other manufacturers have tilt-capable products, so there is a possibility.
 

quantinghome

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Where do all these extra customers come from? It seems to me that the real growth market is in the South East which with HS2 will extend to Birmingham. I can't for the life of me see how London to Manchester / Liverpool / Leeds / Sheffield will be a growth market.

Passenger numbers in the south east are obviously higher, but the major cities outside the south-east have actually experienced a higher rate of growth over the past 20 years. I can't find the data to check how this growth is split between commuter or intercity traffic. However, my experience of peak time trains between Leeds and London would indicate that a strong market exists. Given how busy these trains are, and how expensive the tickets, it would appear there is plenty of demand which is not currently satisfied.
 

edwin_m

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I don't believe anybody has seriously looked at allowing non-tilt stock to run faster than 110mph on the WCML, because there has never been any serious proposal to do so. Indeed it was in VT's interest not to allow possible competing trains to match its schedules without buying expensive tilting trains. There might be a few minutes saving here for classic compatibles north of Golborne (pretty straight either side of Preston, and round Lockerbie?).
 

Bald Rick

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Where do all these extra customers come from? It seems to me that the real growth market is in the South East which with HS2 will extend to Birmingham. I can't for the life of me see how London to Manchester / Liverpool / Leeds / Sheffield will be a growth market.

50 years ago, the Manchester to London demand was comfortably accommodated in a service every 2 hours. Now it is 6 times as frequent.

It is not so long ago that Sheffield - London had a train every 90 minutes, and now it is half hourly.

Birmingham to London was half hourly 30 years ago, now there are 8 trains an hour.

It is 16 years until HS2 phase 2 opens, so there is plenty of time for the growth, and it won't be full on day 1.
 
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Bald Rick

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HS2 CC trains should have significantly faster acceleration than Pendolinos...

Should they? The limit on acceleration for the Pendolinos is the power supply, not the train. It follows that getting HS2 CC trains to have significantly faster acceleration requires a rather expensive power supply upgrade.
 

The Ham

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50 years ago, the Manchester to London demand was comfortably accommodated in a service every 2 hours. Now it is 6 times as frequent.

It is not so long ago that Sheffield - London had a train every 90 minutes, and now it is half hourly.

Birmingham to London was half hourly 30 years ago, now there are 8 trains an hour.

It is 16 years until HS2 phase 2 opens, so there is plenty of time for the growth, and it won't be full on day 1.

It is also worth noting that although some historic services would have been long (as some like to point out with regards to not needing HS2 or not needing IEP) the capacity of the modern 11 coach 390's are probably higher (especially when you consider the dining cars that often were included on long distance trains).

As such it could also be that the are more available seats per train as well as there being more services.

National rail growth could double by the opening of phase 2 meaning that there could still be a significant number of people travelling on the classic lines. Yes it may be less than at Privatisation but that is still enough to run a reasonable frequency reasonable unit length service.

It could well be that rather than long(ish) distance trains that some of the fast services are replaced with metro services. In one path you could have a metro service serving London, one serving Birmingham and a third serving Manchester. Yes that would mean moving an existing service from the slows to the fasts, but it's probably possible.
 

quantinghome

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... it won't be full on day 1.

For day 1 of phase 1, I agree. If the growth we've seen over the past 20 years continues, and there's no reason to suggest it won't, I suspect the London-Birmingham leg will be full as soon as phase 2 opens. Double decked 400m trains may help relieve things for a while, but I think we'll be looking at a direct line from London to Toton sooner rather than later.
 

RichmondCommu

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50 years ago, the Manchester to London demand was comfortably accommodated in a service every 2 hours. Now it is 6 times as frequent.

It is not so long ago that Sheffield - London had a train every 90 minutes, and now it is half hourly.

Birmingham to London was half hourly 30 years ago, now there are 8 trains an hour.

It is 16 years until HS2 phase 2 opens, so there is plenty of time for the growth, and it won't be full on day 1.

There's no doubt that the last 50 years have seen a huge increase in the population of this country so it's hardly surprising that we've seen a increase in demand for rail travel. However given that we have an ageing population and couples are having less children I'm not so certain that we can expect the population to grow at the same rate. Not to mention the fact that the Government is determined to significantly reduce migration so I wonder whether these two factors will have an affect on future increases in rail travel.

As previously stated I think that HS2 between Birmingham and London will be a success but I wonder whether 8 trains an hour is simply there to give more choice as opposed to meeting current physical demand. Not only that but I would be interested to know how many of those who use the London Midland service actually travel all the way to London, especially given the length of the journey.

Sheffield to London is indeed much improved but I do wonder if any of those trains are full on leaving Sheffield and whether everyone travels through to London. Certainly in my experience that isn't the case and those trains only really start to fill up as they head through the East Midlands. Again I wonder if two trains an hour is really just there to give more choice. Given that I think Toton will be a disappointment will there be enough demand for a service from Sheffield that only really makes a station call in Birmingham?

In terms of Manchester I concur that the service is pretty good but I travel up to Manchester from London around four times a month and yet in the morning and coming back in the evening both trains are far from full. Surely all those extra services are really there just to serve different routes and provide more options as opposed to physically meeting demand.
 

RichmondCommu

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For day 1 of phase 1, I agree. If the growth we've seen over the past 20 years continues, and there's no reason to suggest it won't, I suspect the London-Birmingham leg will be full as soon as phase 2 opens. Double decked 400m trains may help relieve things for a while, but I think we'll be looking at a direct line from London to Toton sooner rather than later.

There is an easy and indeed very sensible way round that; charge passengers a premium to use HS2 as the SNCF do on their LGV routes and ensure that there is an alternative service on the WCML which is cheaper and is the same as the current timetable.
 

RichmondCommu

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National rail growth could double by the opening of phase 2 meaning that there could still be a significant number of people travelling on the classic lines. Yes it may be less than at Privatisation but that is still enough to run a reasonable frequency reasonable unit length service.

It could well do but I wonder whether that is more likely to be the case on suburban services in our major cities rather than Intercity travel.
 
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