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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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Senex

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Good news, article 50 will be triggered on the 29th March

And on the 30th march a new trade deal with North Korea will be announced
And the media will no doubt tell us what a wonderful and important new trading partner we have just signed a deal with, with the state visit of Kim Jong Un following a few months later. Funny how quickly one can make important new friends, isn't it?

More seriously, will 29th March ultimately be seen by history as a day of infamy, and in anticipation of that, should we all be wearing black armbands?
 
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Dave1987

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Well Mrs May's tenure as PM could definitely go down in history as the most catastrophic for the UK economy. Literally thousands of jobs are on the line. The EU sound very very prepared for the 29th. Sounds like they are about to give the Brexit Secretary and PM a big fat bill for leaving the EU. If they refuse to pay it then we can pretty much guarantee the UK will be going to WTO rules with the resulting tariffs on goods and services. And at the same time Mrs May is desperately trying to keep the country together. I've seen lots and lots of Tory MPs on social media saying 'there are no remainers or leavers any more so let's all get behind the PM'. Who are they kidding? The country has never been more divided.
 
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May is telling the country that we now need to be united about Brexit, but she and our government hasn't actually done anything to warrant this unity.

They are driving for a hard Brexit, deal or no deal, we're leaving which completely ignores that 48% that wanted to stay. Where is the compromise?

Everyone goes on about 'remoaners' but 48% is a heck of a lot of people. We are more divided than ever.

I can't wait to see what absolute drivel the Daily Fail comes out with when the EU doesn't bow down to exactly what we want.
 

bramling

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Well Mrs May's tenure as PM could definitely go down in history as the most catastrophic for the UK economy. Literally thousands of jobs are on the line. The EU sound very very prepared for the 29th. Sounds like they are about to give the Brexit Secretary and PM a big fat bill for leaving the EU. If they refuse to pay it then we can pretty much guarantee the UK will be going to WTO rules with the resulting tariffs on goods and services. And at the same time Mrs May is desperately trying to keep the country together. I've seen lots and lots of Tory MPs on social media saying 'there are no remainers or leavers any more so let's all get behind the PM'. Who are they kidding? The country has never been more divided.

I have yet to see evidence that the situation in Scotland has been heavily influenced by Brexit. Sturgeon and her SNP will look for any opportunity to push for a referendum - independence is Sturgeon's raison-d'etre in life. Despite the SNP's stirring things up, nearly 40% of Scots voted *leave* in the EU referendum, and I've seen nothing suggesting those who voted remain felt/feel very strongly about the issue. Sturgeon may try to whip up strong feelings, however if Scotland's place in the UK is so weakly cemented then it's probably for the best if we get the inevitable break-up over with now. Meanwhile Northern Ireland's position will be more decided by demographics than anything else in my opinion, and that tipping point has been fast approaching for the last couple of decades. The gist of what I'm saying is that if England and Wales want Brexit, which apparently they do, they may as well get on with it, as any issues involving Scotland and NI would probably have happened anyway IMO.
 

bramling

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May is telling the country that we now need to be united about Brexit, but she and our government hasn't actually done anything to warrant this unity.

They are driving for a hard Brexit, deal or no deal, we're leaving which completely ignores that 48% that wanted to stay. Where is the compromise?

Everyone goes on about 'remoaners' but 48% is a heck of a lot of people. We are more divided than ever.

I can't wait to see what absolute drivel the Daily Fail comes out with when the EU doesn't bow down to exactly what we want.

How many of those 48% actually care that much? Especially if the economic doom forecasts don't come to fruition, which so far has been the case? Were it not for worries about economic impact, I bet the leave vote would have been a lot higher.

As for compromise, personally I want nothing to do with the EU, yet for the first four decades of my life I've had to be part of it - against my will - so I'm more-than happy for the second half of my life to be free from it, so forgive me if I don't feel too guilty about the 48% who have had their way for long enough. Maybe if the *EU* had chosen to compromise a little more, when Cameron tried, Britain might have chosen remain. The EU's ideological attachment to certain policies, like the single currency or free movement or people, is the root cause of a lot of problems. In my view Britain can well do without being ideologically tied to certain policy dreams, this is the same problem which is currently dividing Scotland thanks to the ideological dream of a few people.
 
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EM2

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The home of the concrete cow
C7X7hWzX4AAd0bO.jpg
 

najaB

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For those who use screen readers:
A short history of Britain's relationship with the EU
UK: We want a rebate on the fees
EU: OK
UK: We don't want to be in the Euro
EU: OK
UK: We don't want to be in Shengen
EU: OK
UK: We want a restriction on benefits until people have worked here for some time
EU: OK
UK: We want to stop child benefit being paid for children who aren't in the UK
EU: OK
UK: We want to kick out people who come here but don't work and can't afford to support themselves.
EU: That's fine, you already can.
UK: We want loads of preferential treatment that other countries don't get
EU: Errr, can't really give that without everyone agreeing
UK: Don't give us what we want and we'll leave
EU: That's a bit of an over reaction, but your choice
UK: OK we're leaving
EU: Bye then
UK: Now we're leaving, we want all the things we had before
EU: Errr, no, it doesn't work like that
UK: Don't give us what we want and we'll leave with nothing,
EU: (Scratches head) OK, umm, well, yeah
UK: We're serious, we'll walk away with nothing to teach you a lesson
EU: Bye (again)
 

KN1

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Well Mrs May's tenure as PM could definitely go down in history as the most catastrophic for the UK economy. Literally thousands of jobs are on the line. The EU sound very very prepared for the 29th. Sounds like they are about to give the Brexit Secretary and PM a big fat bill for leaving the EU. If they refuse to pay it then we can pretty much guarantee the UK will be going to WTO rules with the resulting tariffs on goods and services. And at the same time Mrs May is desperately trying to keep the country together. I've seen lots and lots of Tory MPs on social media saying 'there are no remainers or leavers any more so let's all get behind the PM'. Who are they kidding? The country has never been more divided.

I was pretty confused which way to vote but in the end I voted Remain, if the vote was held again I would vote Leave as all the end of the world predictions haven't materialised.
There may well be difficult times in the years ahead but it's long term that is important and the EU only has one way of solving problems which is more and more EU.

I am actually looking forward to leaving now and to be honest the sooner the better.
 

DynamicSpirit

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As for compromise, personally I want nothing to do with the EU, yet for the first four decades of my life I've had to be part of it - against my will

Can you clarify what exactly the EU has prevented you from doing? In what way your life has been significantly damaged by your having EU citizenship? Or any burdens that your EU citizenship has placed on you?

I'm asking because it's not hard to find ways that leaving the EU is going to cause significant harm to many people's lives, as well as depriving them of significant rights. Yet I've never seen any good rationale for why that should happen the other way round. Being a part of the EU gives you additional rights (such as the freedom to travel) but imposes no responsibilities on you - so it's hard to see why anyone would have good reasonable grounds to object to it on a personal level, even if you think there are political/national grounds for preferring to leave. But that's exactly what you appear to be claiming.
 
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miami

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If we walk away from our international obligations (say not paying the EU exit bill), I wonder how much other countries will trust us in the future when it comes to trade agreements.

Even setting aside the issue of WTO tarrifs when trading with europe, what about the rest of the world? Our membership of EFTA means we currently benefit from tariff free exports to the following countries

Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Canada (Canada-European Free Trade Association Free Trade Agreement), Central American States (Costa Rica, Panama), Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Gulf Co-operation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates), Hong Kong (China), Israel, Jordan, South Korea, Lebanon, Macedonia, Mexico, Montenegro, Morocco (excluding Western Sahara), Palestinian National Authority, Peru, Serbia, Singapore, Southern African Customs Union (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland), Tunisia, Turkey and the Ukraine

Not to mention those we're currently in discussion with in Algeria, Central American States (Guatemala, Honduras), India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia / Belarus / Kazakhstan, Thailand and Vietnam.

We throw all those away at the end of March 2019, even if we agree a deal with EFTA. Even if we get a great deal, which of the 46 other countries listed above are top of the list for negotiations starting April 2019?

Canada took about 8 years to come to an arrangement with europe, 9 years for Canada-south korea, 9 years Canada-Colombia, so we could expect a deal with them as soon as 2027.

South Korea took a mere 6 years to come to agreement with Peru, so if we prioritise them we could have one in 2025 - before HS2 opens!

China-South Korea is unusual, it took under 4 years to complete, and with that timetable we should be grilling by Christmas 2023.
 

Senex

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How many of those 48% actually care that much?
Perhaps quite as many as care that much amongst the 52%? Why should you feel the Remainers are any less strongly committed to their deep involvement with the EU than the Brexiteers are to theirs of Little Englanderism?
 

Barn

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Even setting aside the issue of WTO tarrifs when trading with europe, what about the rest of the world? Our membership of EFTA means we currently benefit from tariff free exports to the following countries

Err, we aren't in EFTA. We left it to join the EU. And as you demonstrated, it has been rather more successful at concluding trade deals than its bigger, clunkier brother.
 

miami

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Can you clarify what exactly the EU has prevented you from doing? In what way your life has been significantly damaged by your having EU citizenship? Or any burdens that your EU citizenship has placed on you?

This is a very interesting question, and I wonder if it comes down to the split between those that think freedom is freedom to control others (where they live, who they talk to etc), and those that think freedom is freedom from control of others. I found out the other day that 16% of the country think gay sex should be illegal (down from 23% in 2002 fortunatly)!

There is a clear cost of an average £3.84/week to be a member of the EU, which is obviously weighted by how much tax you pay. If you're retired on a pension of £14k you'll pay hardly anything (maybe 50p a week). If you earn £100k a year you'll pay far more (say £15 a week). The benefits you draw from that membership fee vary, just like the membership fee to live in the UK (£150/week) has benefits that vary from person to person.

I look forward to seeing some answers.
 

Dave1987

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I was pretty confused which way to vote but in the end I voted Remain, if the vote was held again I would vote Leave as all the end of the world predictions haven't materialised.
There may well be difficult times in the years ahead but it's long term that is important and the EU only has one way of solving problems which is more and more EU.

I am actually looking forward to leaving now and to be honest the sooner the better.

The devaluation of the pound is just starting to bite. British companies are becoming ripe for hostile takeovers because of the weakness in the pound. Inflation is on the rise but the BoE dare not raise interest rates because of how fragile the economy is. Yes the economy has not taken a nose dive yet but we still have not left the EU yet. The repercussions from doing so have yet to happen.
 

bramling

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Can you clarify what exactly the EU has prevented you from doing? In what way your life has been significantly damaged by your having EU citizenship? Or any burdens that your EU citizenship has placed on you?

For a start, a million and a half "EU citizens" increasing the UK's population in the last few years alone, with consequential effects on housing, transport, utilities and public services. We have a well-publicized issue with availability and price of housing, particularly in the London area, and there's no way that such a fast and uncontrolled swell in the population size can't have contributed to this - 1.5 million people aren't living on the streets after all. I wish for immigration policy to be decided and controlled by our government, representing the wishes of the UK's citizens. I also object to subsidising the EU's budget and for my tax to be funding spending in other countries or in welfare payments to EU citizens, with our elected government having no direct say. Meanwhile the structural failings of the single currency has produced very poor growth across Europe in recent years, with effects on Europe as a whole.

I'm asking because it's not hard to find ways that leaving the EU is going to cause significant harm to many people's lives, as well as depriving them of significant rights.

If we're concerned about things like workers' rights, I'd prefer our system of government to enforce these. This is how representative democracy works - if enough people vote for a salient issue then governments respond. I want some control in the process, which I don't feel I have through the EU institutions.

Being a part of the EU gives you additional rights (such as the freedom to travel)

I didn't realise UK citizens will be losing their freedom to travel after Brexit? As it happens, I haven't been outside the UK since 2003, and can't envisage a situation where I may wish to work outside the UK. In any case, if I did there's no guarantee I'd want to work within one of the EU countries. In short, I'm not interested in the additional rights the EU brings me. Furthermore, the disbenefits outweigh these rights.


but imposes no responsibilities on you

So the UK taxpayer contribution to the EU budget is zero then? I'd say contributing to the budget is very much a responsibility on you & I. I'm looking forward to what my tax is spent on being decided by the UK government. Sooner we leave the better, as hard as possible. Personally I don't think the EU will exist in its current form within a generation, so the whole argument will probably be academic anyway.
 
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bramling

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I think it's got 10 years tops.

Less if Le-Pen hits success in France, although I suspect on balance that probably won't happen. Likewise the Euro is susceptible to structural failure, thank goodness we didn't join it. The EU's survival may well depend on how they react to the Euro's inevitable downfall - a pragmatic response may well recover the situation, an ideological response will cause terminal decline.
 

bramling

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Not being part of Schengen or joining the Euro sounds a lot like a EU compromise to me.

Assuming our referendum hadn't happened, what would have been the chance of the UK government being able to secure an out-out on free movement?

The answer I think is pretty close to zero.

That position is simply untenable to many UK citizens now, the EU had their opportunity to show compromise and they didn't.
 

meridian2

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Assuming our referendum hadn't happened, what would have been the chance of the UK government being able to secure an out-out on free movement?

The answer I think is pretty close to zero.

That position is simply untenable to many UK citizens now, the EU had their opportunity to show compromise and they didn't.
Correct. They could have given Cameron a sop to wave Chamberlain style, and head off Brexit, but the EU mandarins chose to close ranks and present compromise on border control as unthinkable.
 

47802

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For a start, a million and a half "EU citizens" increasing the UK's population in the last few years alone, with consequential effects on housing, transport, utilities and public services. We have a well-publicized issue with availability and price of housing, particularly in the London area, and there's no way that such a fast and uncontrolled swell in the population size can't have contributed to this - 1.5 million people aren't living on the streets after all. I wish for immigration policy to be decided and controlled by our government, representing the wishes of the UK's citizens. I also object to subsidising the EU's budget and for my tax to be funding spending in other countries or in welfare payments to EU citizens, with our elected government having no direct say. Meanwhile the structural failings of the single currency has produced very poor growth across Europe in recent years, with effects on Europe as a whole.

If we're concerned about things like workers' rights, I'd prefer our system of government to enforce these. This is how representative democracy works - if enough people vote for a salient issue then governments respond. I want some control in the process, which I don't feel I have through the EU institutions.



I didn't realise UK citizens will be losing their freedom to travel after Brexit? As it happens, I haven't been outside the UK since 2003, and can't envisage a situation where I may wish to work outside the UK. In any case, if I did there's no guarantee I'd want to work within one of the EU countries. In short, I'm not interested in the additional rights the EU brings me. Furthermore, the disbenefits outweigh these rights.




So the UK taxpayer contribution to the EU budget is zero then? I'd say contributing to the budget is very much a responsibility on you & I. I'm looking forward to what my tax is spent on being decided by the UK government. Sooner we leave the better, as hard as possible. Personally I don't think the EU will exist in its current form within a generation, so the whole argument will probably be academic anyway.

So you going to be paying the unemployment benefit of all those that get made redundant by your hard brexit then. No thought not still as long as it doesn't affect you personally and are alright jack i'm sure it will be fine.

Until recently I worked for a Multi-National company, people used to work between European offices for short to long periods with ease, that maybe more difficult in future and be yet another disadvantage for UK offices against European ones.
 
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Tetchytyke

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I was pretty confused which way to vote but in the end I voted Remain, if the vote was held again I would vote Leave as all the end of the world predictions haven't materialised.
There may well be difficult times in the years ahead but it's long term that is important and the EU only has one way of solving problems which is more and more EU.

I am actually looking forward to leaving now and to be honest the sooner the better.

We haven't left yet, and already the value of the pound has been trashed. It is way too early to decide if the predictions of doom will come true. I think some of it was hyperbole, but I think most of them will actually come true if we get the Hard Brexit the kippers want.
 

bramling

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So you going to be paying the unemployment benefit of all those that get made redundant by your hard brexit then. No thought not still as long as it doesn't affect you personally and are alright jack i'm sure it will be fine.

Until recently I worked for a Multi-National company, people used to work between European offices for short to long periods with ease, that maybe more difficult in future and be yet another disadvantage for UK offices against European ones.

So on the one hand we allegedly have a massive shortage of workers such that immigration is allegedly vital, yet if we leave the EU there will allegedly be mass unemployment. Doesn't quite square up.
 

DynamicSpirit

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This is a very interesting question, and I wonder if it comes down to the split between those that think freedom is freedom to control others (where they live, who they talk to etc), and those that think freedom is freedom from control of others. I found out the other day that 16% of the country think gay sex should be illegal (down from 23% in 2002 fortunatly)!

As an aside, it's sad if so many people still think gay sex should be illegal. I do wonder though about a survey analysis that unquestioningly accepts a mathematically somewhat contradictory - and therefore completely implausible statement such as

Guardian said:
Men, on average, have had 12 partners, while women have had just seven
 

Tetchytyke

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So on the one hand we allegedly have a massive shortage of workers such that immigration is allegedly vital, yet if we leave the EU there will allegedly be mass unemployment. Doesn't quite square up.

if you can't recruit the best talent to run your company, you move your company to somewhere where you can. And then nobody in the original country has a job.

Simple, really.
 

najaB

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So on the one hand we allegedly have a massive shortage of workers such that immigration is allegedly vital, yet if we leave the EU there will allegedly be mass unemployment. Doesn't quite square up.
It really isn't that hard to explain. The EU is one of our largest trading partners, and we currently trade completely freely. If we end up on WTO terms our products get more expensive overnight while the same product produced inside the EU continues to be tariff-free. If I was a manufacturer/service provider I know I would look at relocating.
 

Tetchytyke

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As an aside, it's sad if so many people still think gay sex should be illegal. I do wonder though about a survey analysis that unquestioningly accepts a mathematically somewhat contradictory - and therefore completely implausible statement such as

Men overestimating the notches on their bedpost and women underestimating them is one of the oldest phenomena in the book. It goes all the way back to when the bride- but only the bride- was supposed to be a virgin on her wedding night. It's the age old thing: men are supposed to be proud of sexual partners, women ashamed.

And if one thinks a woman's a slag for sleeping with as many people as you, then one is probably going to be just as enlightened about gay sex.
 
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