Theresa May calls General Election on 8th June.

pemma · 23 Apr 2017

edwin_m said:
The alternative for the LibDems (or anyone else who may get the relevant numbers) is to agreed to support another party on specific issues but not to be part of a formal coalition. Potentially the smaller party is more able to stop things they don't like and can perhaps avoid what the LibDems reaped in 2015. But they don't get any seats on the front bench, probably don't get any of their own proposals into law, and could be seen as wreckers rather than a constructive contributor.

If this happened and the supporting party totally lost confidence in the government, an election could still be triggered by a vote of no confidence even if the Parliament Act is still in force - but I think they'd have to wait 14 days before calling it to give a chance for an alternative government to be formed.

In 2010 you make remember the Conservatives did a Party Election Broadcast where they went through what would happen if no parliament was formed after an election and then going on to claim the only way to prevent that was to Conservative. (They didn't suggest a coalition was an option!)

It's also worth remembering in the event of a hung parliament Mrs May will remain in charge until either some form of government is formed or another election is called.

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pemma · 23 Apr 2017

southern442 said:
The only other one that seems obvious is the SNP but I doubt the Tories would want to join forces with them.

Labour would also be apprehensive about forming a coalition with the SNP because being willing to form a coalition would reduce the chance of Labour winning back seats in Scotland.

47802 · 23 Apr 2017

I actually didn't mind the 2010 coalition gov, but I don't want this time it would be a nightmare for Brexit negotiations.

Butts · 23 Apr 2017

jcollins said:
More election news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39682388

A few points with Corbyn's Bank Holiday idea:
1. It would need to be in conjunction with changing the legislation that requires employers to give a minimum of 28 days off a year for full time workers, otherwise we could end up with Bank Holidays when most people are working.
2. Phasing in extra Bank Holidays would normally sense. However, I can see objections if St David's Day was made a Bank Holiday 2 years after St Patrick's Day.
3. It would make sense to move one of the May Bank Holidays to later in the year, otherwise there would be a total of 6 Bank Holidays during March, April and May and quite a few months without any.

It should be noted that St Andrews Day is not a "real" Bank Holiday in Scotland at least in respect of "premium payments" for most people working. Also Good Friday was not paid at "premium rates" where I worked as they were instead made on January 2nd. So as in England and Wales there were only 8 :idea:

pemma · 23 Apr 2017

It seems the BBC misquoted Tim Farron. He actually said

"There is no way we can countenance any kind of arrangement or coalition with the Conservative party and likewise with the Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn, he accepted hard Brexit, he voted for it, he enabled it. It has put us in the situation we are now in.

So he's ruled out any kind of deal with the Conservatives but not actually ruled out one with Labour if they replace Corbyn with a leader who is in favour of keeping us in the single market.

Groningen · 23 Apr 2017

Jeremy Corbyn will stop the bombing of Syria if gets to be PM. Maybe he should first ask Russia, Iran and all Assad allies to keep the planes on the ground.

najaB · 23 Apr 2017

jcollins said:
Labour would also be apprehensive about forming a coalition with the SNP because being willing to form a coalition would reduce the chance of Labour winning back seats in Scotland.

I've never understood that: surely being cooperative is likely to soften the negative opinions that people have formed of you more than being combative is likely to?

pemma · 23 Apr 2017

najaB said:
I've never understood that: surely being cooperative is likely to soften the negative opinions that people have formed of you more than being combative is likely to?

They think along the lines of needing the Scottish seats to be able to form a majority government so want the Scots to think a vote for the SNP will keep the Tories in power.

pemma · 23 Apr 2017

Groningen said:
Jeremy Corbyn will stop the bombing of Syria if gets to be PM. Maybe he should first ask Russia, Iran and all Assad allies to keep the planes on the ground.

Westminster originally voted against military involvement in Syria when Cameron wanted us to start arming rebels. With hindsight it wasn't surprising Cameron didn't get his way as our weapons could have got in to the hands of IS.

najaB · 23 Apr 2017

jcollins said:
They think along the lines of needing the Scottish seats to be able to form a majority government so want the Scots to think a vote for the SNP will keep the Tories in power.

That's the kind of thinking that doesn't make sense to me - surely Labour realise they can get more done in a coalition with the SNP than they'll ever manage in opposition.

pemma · 23 Apr 2017

najaB said:
That's the kind of thinking that doesn't make sense to me - surely Labour realise they can get more done in a coalition with the SNP than they'll ever manage in opposition.

They want to scare the Scots in to voting for them so they get a majority government and don't have to compromise on policies to get them voted through. Also forming a coalition with the SNP will lose them votes in England and they'll probably be calls to allow a Welsh and a NI party in to the coalition for fairness.

najaB · 23 Apr 2017

jcollins said:
Also forming a coalition with the SNP will lose them votes in England and they'll probably be calls to allow a Welsh and a NI party in to the coalition for fairness.

If that's what it takes to stop the Tories, then I can't see the problem.

gareth950 · 23 Apr 2017

So the Tories strapline for this election is vote for a majority Conservative govt to avoid a 'Coalition of chaos', every time I see a Conservative being interviewed the phrase is shoe-horned into answers somewhere.

So why doesn't a journalist then point out that we've had 2 years of a majority conservative govt and what feels like a state of almost permanent chaos since May 2015, with budgets falling apart as soon as they are announced, U-turns one after another and total political chaos since the EU referendum was announced last February.

The 2010-2015 coalition was one of the most stable governments we've had in the past decade.

EM2 · 23 Apr 2017

In the words of David Cameron:

Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband

https://twitter.com/david_cameron/status/595112367358406656

hock:

pemma · 23 Apr 2017

EM2 said:
In the words of David Cameron:

https://twitter.com/david_cameron/status/595112367358406656
hock:

In the past week he said

Brave - and right - decision by PM @Theresa_May. My very best wishes to all Conservative candidates

If it was 'the right thing to do' as you were always saying Mr Cameron, why didn't you trigger the election before you stood down?

gareth950 · 23 Apr 2017

EM2 said:
In the words of David Cameron:

https://twitter.com/david_cameron/status/595112367358406656
hock:

And now we know it would have been the other way around.

The Conservatives spin doctors also have left out how a vote for Theresa May's Conservatives and her hard brexit is almost certainly a vote for Scotland leaving the UK and huge political instability in Northern Ireland.

pemma · 23 Apr 2017

najaB said:
If that's what it takes to stop the Tories, then I can't see the problem.

The risk of Labour losing votes in England after going in to coalition with the SNP could let the Tories back in where they could end up staying for a long time!

najaB · 23 Apr 2017

jcollins said:
The risk of Labour losing votes in England after going in to coalition with the SNP could let the Tories back in where they could end up staying for a long time!

To me that is like not wanting to launch a lifeboat on the Titanic because it will scratch the paint!

tspaul26 · 23 Apr 2017

gareth950 said:
So the Tories strapline for this election is vote for a majority Conservative govt to avoid a 'Coalition of chaos', every time I see a Conservative being interviewed the phrase is shoe-horned into answers somewhere.

Which would you rather have:

a nasty coalition of chaos, full of back-biting and shady deals where each party denies responsibility; or
transparent unitary chaos, where you know exactly who is to blame?

This is clearly the key message that the Tories want people to take home in advance of the election.

Sarcasm aside, regardless of what you think of the Conservatives' policy prospectus, the strapline is working because we're discussing it here. Does Labour have a strapline at the moment? I've not come across one yet.

fowler9 · 23 Apr 2017

I'd be more likely to vote Labour if they promised to collaborate to keep the Tories out than I would otherwise.

fowler9 · 23 Apr 2017

tspaul26 said:
Which would you rather have:

a nasty coalition of chaos, full of back-biting and shady deals where each party denies responsibility; or

transparent unitary chaos, where you know exactly who is to blame?

This is clearly the key message that the Tories want people to take home in advance of the election.

Mmmmm, such choice.

southern442 · 23 Apr 2017

jcollins said:
So he's ruled out any kind of deal with the Conservatives but not actually ruled out one with Labour if they replace Corbyn with a leader who is in favour of keeping us in the single market.

I have a feeling that Labour will campaign for single market access because it's so popular. They had better do, anyway.

bramling · 23 Apr 2017

gareth950 said:
And now we know it would have been the other way around.

The Conservatives spin doctors also have left out how a vote for Theresa May's Conservatives and her hard brexit is almost certainly a vote for Scotland leaving the UK and huge political instability in Northern Ireland.

Not necessarily. Scotland is an unknown, however one possible path is that the SNP don't do as well as in 2015, either in terms of vote share and/or seats. This would be a headache for Sturgeon as it could quickly start to be seen as the SNP having peaked and now being on a declining trajectory, thus weakening Sturgeon's position and her case for an independence referendum. This effect would be magnified if the Conservatives (remember their full title is Conservative and Unionist Party) do well, as some are predicting may happen. Hard to predict as we don't really have any robust unbiased evidence to allow us to sense the Scottish mood at present.

Meanwhile, over the Channel one observes Marine has made it through to the final round there. If she does win in the end, the EU's waters suddenly become very muddy indeed, such that a lot of these issues may not be issues we need to worry too much about.

southern442 · 23 Apr 2017

Another thing. This is just a hypothetical situation, but what might happen if the Lib Dems field a candidate in Maidenhead, and all the other parties back that candidate? Since they voted to remain, is there any sort of chance that , in this extremely unlikely scenario, they could kick the PM out of her own constituency?

najaB · 23 Apr 2017

bramling said:
Meanwhile, over the Channel one observes Marine has made it through to the final round there. If she does win in the end, the EU's waters suddenly become very muddy indeed, such that a lot of these issues may not be issues we need to worry too much about.

It was pretty much expected that she would make it to the second round. However one would like to think that the 'anyone but Le Pen' factor will prevent her from winning outright.

Cowley · 23 Apr 2017

najaB said:
It was pretty much expected that she would make it to the second round. However one would like to think that the 'anyone but Le Pen' factor will prevent her from winning outright.

It's looking that way I'd say. It seems that most voters of the other big parties will as you say vote for 'anyone but Le Pen'.
It's interesting that neither of the big main parties have made it into the final two though.

LateThanNever · 23 Apr 2017

tspaul26 said:
Which would you rather have:

a nasty coalition of chaos, full of back-biting and shady deals where each party denies responsibility; or

transparent unitary chaos, where you know exactly who is to blame?

This is clearly the key message that the Tories want people to take home in advance of the election.

Sarcasm aside, regardless of what you think of the Conservatives' policy prospectus, the strapline is working because we're discussing it here. Does Labour have a strapline at the moment? I've not come across one yet.

Let June be the end of May!

adrock1976 · 23 Apr 2017

Regarding the upcoming General Election in June, the cynic in me says it is not necessarily to do with Brexit and what deals can be negotiated.

It is due to there being around 30 Conservative MPs that are being investigated for electoral fraud at the 2015 General Election. One of those MPs on the list is David Mundell, who has the pleasurable or dubious honour of being Scotland's sole Conservative MP.

southern442 · 23 Apr 2017

adrock1976 said:
Regarding the upcoming General Election in June, the cynic in me says it is not necessarily to do with Brexit and what deals can be negotiated.

It is due to there being around 30 Conservative MPs that are being investigated for electoral fraud at the 2015 General Election. One of those MPs on the list is David Mundell, who has the pleasurable or dubious honour of being Scotland's sole Conservative MP.

The Beast of Bolsover got quite worked up about this in PMQ's recently, and quite rightly I would say. I think other parties in those constituencies should really try to emphasise the message that these MPs are potentially criminals. 'Your local MP could be a criminal' or something like that. Slightly hyperbolic but it would get the point across nicely.

gareth950 · 23 Apr 2017

southern442 said:
Another thing. This is just a hypothetical situation, but what might happen if the Lib Dems field a candidate in Maidenhead, and all the other parties back that candidate? Since they voted to remain, is there any sort of chance that , in this extremely unlikely scenario, they could kick the PM out of her own constituency?

I guess it could happen, in theory. Theresa May isn't immune to losing her seat just because she's PM. If the Lib Dems could overturn a big majority in Richmond they can do it again. (I'm being extremely optimistic here, but I seriously will not get through the next 6 weeks without hope and optimism!)

Theresa May calls General Election on 8th June.

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