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Old 20th March 2017, 22:52   #6091
47802
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Originally Posted by bramling View Post
So on the one hand we allegedly have a massive shortage of workers such that immigration is allegedly vital, yet if we leave the EU there will allegedly be mass unemployment. Doesn't quite square up.
Or to put it bluntly better quality better paying jobs will be reduced, while poorer quality and poorer paying jobs will have to be covered by UK workers or do without. While there still may be shortages in some key skilled areas because there isn't enough British Skilled workers and some moving to better opportunities abroad.

A comment from a friend visiting from Canada recently, some tradespeople very difficult to get in Canada not many Polish Plumbers there.

Of course in reality any deal with the EU will still likely have a certain level of immigration from EU countries, and other non EU countries are already talking about linking trade deals to immigration. So anybody who thinks that there will be hardly immigration after brexit is in cloud cuckoo land which is essentially why I voted to stay in.

Governments never control immigration to the level many of the population want. The Labour party particularly Corbyn don't seem to believe in immigration Controls while the Tories know that a certain level of immigration is required for skills shortages and a good pool of cheap Labour.

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Old 20th March 2017, 23:14   #6092
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It really isn't that hard to explain. The EU is one of our largest trading partners, and we currently trade completely freely. If we end up on WTO terms our products get more expensive overnight while the same product produced inside the EU continues to be tariff-free. If I was a manufacturer/service provider I know I would look at relocating.
If that's your mindset you'd have gone already. Tariffs on most manufactured goods are nothing like the differences that already exist in salary and rental costs. In many cases they would already be cancelled out by the correction in the pound.
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Old 20th March 2017, 23:47   #6093
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Tariffs on most manufactured goods are nothing like the differences that already exist in salary and rental costs.
Oh, right. Sorry. I forgot that manufacturers are currently flocking to move to the UK from Europe to take advantage of our low costs.
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Old 21st March 2017, 01:05   #6094
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I didn't realise UK citizens will be losing their freedom to travel after Brexit? As it happens, I haven't been outside the UK since 2003, and can't envisage a situation where I may wish to work outside the UK. In any case, if I did there's no guarantee I'd want to work within one of the EU countries. In short, I'm not interested in the additional rights the EU brings me. Furthermore, the disbenefits outweigh these rights.
That's your perspective for your life, but it's not all about you. There are plenty of others who value the freedom to travel (as well as work and study).
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Old 21st March 2017, 01:15   #6095
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Perhaps quite as many as care that much amongst the 52%? Why should you feel the Remainers are any less strongly committed to their deep involvement with the EU than the Brexiteers are to theirs of Little Englanderism?
Or Little Waleserism or even nearly 40% Little Scotlanderism, the latter being something somewhat overlooked by the likes of Sturgeon?

From personal experience there's a lot less passion on the remain side. My workplace had flyers posted for four separate celebratory garden parties on the weekend after the referendum, and I wouldn't describe my workplace as particularly politically motivated normally. I can't imagine such celebration had remain won. Meanwhile I know a *lot* of people who found their heart was telling them leave, but their head in the end told them status quo was the less risky option. Perhaps if the EU put pragmatism over ideology the EU would be less divisive.

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Old 21st March 2017, 01:17   #6096
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I was pretty confused which way to vote but in the end I voted Remain, if the vote was held again I would vote Leave as all the end of the world predictions haven't materialised.
There may well be difficult times in the years ahead but it's long term that is important and the EU only has one way of solving problems which is more and more EU.

I am actually looking forward to leaving now and to be honest the sooner the better.
Wow, so the end of the world predictions haven't happened before we have left? Can you explain this one to me as no one else seems to be able to. Why would you expect to see car manufacturers etc. leave the UK before they know what the trade deals will be? We are still very much in the EU at the moment and no agreements have been made. It is going to get very real soon.
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Old 21st March 2017, 01:28   #6097
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Oh, right. Sorry. I forgot that manufacturers are currently flocking to move to the UK from Europe to take advantage of our low costs.
Costs are higher in the UK. My point was that companies base themselves here for reasons other than pure cost and, if they were so cost sensitive, there are plenty of reasons to have relocated to places like Bulgaria already.
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Old 21st March 2017, 01:54   #6098
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That's your perspective for your life, but it's not all about you. There are plenty of others who value the freedom to travel (as well as work and study).
Not just me, a majority of the UK population (out of those who felt strongly enough to be bothered to vote). That's how democracy works. Evidently plenty of people also don't care about losing these rights, or feel that the benefits that come alongside losing them outweigh the costs. For me the costs of uncontrolled population growth FAR outweigh the benefits of the rights you speak of. All very nice to study in an EU country, but hardly a concern if one can't afford a house in one's chosen location.

A former workplace of mine had something similar when trying to agree on a roster for 11 people. It was like children in a sweetshop who had been given a finite amount of money to spend, but the greedy children wanted every sweet and couldn't prioritise which sweets they wanted most. In the end one has to go with what the majority wants, and in so doing the things that matter most to most people have to be prioritised. Maybe if there are mass job losses associated with Brexit then the majority priorities may change, although I think most Brexit voters fully expected there may be a short-term hit, my entire household (along with about 90% of my current workplace) voted leave, and certainly factored in things like savings as a cushion if needed.

As for freedom to travel, we're hardly likely to lose that.

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Old 21st March 2017, 02:06   #6099
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If that's your mindset you'd have gone already. Tariffs on most manufactured goods are nothing like the differences that already exist in salary and rental costs. In many cases they would already be cancelled out by the correction in the pound.
Have a look at post #5936.
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A third of European companies expect to cut investment spending due to Brexit uncertainties and a tenth of those with operations in the Britain plan to pull out of the country, a survey of 600 euro zone firms, by Swiss bank UBS, found.

Over half the companies said they did not expect Britain leaving the European Union to change their investment plans, but 24 percent anticipated reducing investment "somewhat", and 8 percent "significantly", the survey, published on Friday, showed.

Thirty-nine percent of those said they would modify their investment plans within 6-12 months, and around 17 percent said they would respond immediately.

Of the firms surveyed, in a range of sizes and sectors chosen to represent the European market, 74 percent have operations in Britain.

Of those, a tenth said they planned to relocate all their capacity away from Britain, while 31 percent said they would remove a large amount. A fifth said they would not relocate any capacity, and 3 percent planned to increase UK operations.

Euro zone countries were the most preferred new destinations for nearly half of respondents, while central and Eastern Europe was preferred by 30 percent.
The survey found uncertainty related to Brexit was top of the companies' worry list. A close second was uncertainty over the new U.S. administration, while only 14 percent were most concerned about the French presidential election.

The survey was conducted between Jan. 10 and Feb. 13.
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Old 21st March 2017, 02:10   #6100
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Check this out. The director of the leave campaign admits that they wouldn't have won (In his opinion) if they hadn't lied. http://www.thelondoneconomic.com/new...-public/08/02/ Even if he is wrong and leave would have won anyway he admits they lied about some pretty fundamental stuff.
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Old 21st March 2017, 02:14   #6101
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Not just me, a majority of the UK population (out of those who felt strongly enough to be bothered to vote). That's how democracy works. Evidently plenty of people also don't care about losing these rights, or feel that the benefits that come alongside losing them outweigh the costs. For me the costs of uncontrolled population growth FAR outweigh the benefits of the rights you speak of. All very nice to study in an EU country, but hardly a concern if one can't afford a house in one's chosen location.
If you have work long/hard/smart enough to save up some money, but are now not allowed to live in one's chosen location, what then?

Besides, you're going to be very disapointed. Even setting aside the fact most immigrants come from outside of the EU, and the massive draw that London is to people inside the UK (easy to buy a house in Haltwhistle. Pain to buy one there if you work 50 hours a week in london), you've still got the fact a large number of EU immigrants are the "ones we want", so will still be able to come.

Brexit won't reduce immigration -- according to Vote Leave.

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/25/brexit...igner-5966910/
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One of the key figures in engineering the Brexit said the number of people coming to Britain will not go down – and said Vote Leave never promised it would.
Daniel Hannan, Conservative, made the admission to BBC Newsnight presenter Evan Davis, who said the free movement of labour was ‘completely at odds with what the public think they’ve just voted for’.
Your version of democracy is two wolfs and a sheep deciding on dinner. That's not a world I like to live in.

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Old 21st March 2017, 02:33   #6102
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If you're not allowed to live in one's chosen location.

Besides, you're going to be very disapointed. Even setting aside the fact most immigrants come from outside of the EU, and the massive draw that London is to people inside the UK (easy to buy a house in Haltwhistle. Pain to buy one there if you work 50 hours a week in london), you've still got the fact a large number of EU immigrants are the "ones we want", so will still be able to come.

Brexit won't reduce immigration -- according to Vote Leave.

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/25/brexit...igner-5966910/


Your version of democracy is two wolfs and a sheep deciding on dinner. That's not a world I like to live in.
So you don't think over a million people arriving in a few years has had any effect on housing availability and/or prices in the London area? There has been a massive effect, not just in London but increasingly outwards from London. Associated with all this the south east is seeing more commuting and more commuting over longer distances. There are plenty of threads elsewhere on this forum referring to increasingly crowded trains in the south-east. When you find your train to work is becoming unboardable and there are no plans to enhance capacity on your route (save perhaps by removing seats) freedom to study elsewhere is just not such a salient issue by comparison. Haltwhistle's 1tph pacer service may be easy to have capacity added, the south-east is reaching the point where everything is approaching it's realistic limit.

Time will tell if immigration goes down. There's more chance outside the EU than inside, and I'd rather have the policy pragmatically decided by an elected Westminster than ideologically dictated by mostly unelected EU institutions. Ideology normally leads to bad policy.
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Old 21st March 2017, 02:35   #6103
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So you don't think over a million people arriving in a few years has had any effect on housing availability and/or prices in the London area? There has been a massive effect, not just in London but increasingly outwards from London. Associated with all this the south east is seeing more commuting and more commuting over longer distances. There are plenty of threads elsewhere on this forum referring to increasingly crowded trains in the south-east. When you find your train to work is becoming unboardable and there are no plans to enhance capacity on your route (save perhaps by removing seats) freedom to study elsewhere is just not such a salient issue by comparison. Haltwhistle's 1tph pacer service may be easy to have capacity added, the south-east is reaching the point where everything is approaching it's realistic limit.

Time will tell if immigration goes down. There's more chance outside the EU than inside, and I'd rather have the policy pragmatically decided by an elected Westminster than ideologically dictated by mostly enelected EU institutions. Ideology normally leads to bad policy.

I hope I am wrong but you watch as absolutely nothing changes for the better after leaving the EU. Our country is run by Neo Liberals who are very similar to those that run the EU but there will be less checks and balances.
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Old 21st March 2017, 02:42   #6104
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Apologies if this offends anyone but if you think that leaving the EU will result in our government having more concern for your own personal interests you are naive at best.
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Old 21st March 2017, 02:44   #6105
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I hope I am wrong but you watch as absolutely nothing changes for the better after leaving the EU. Our country is run by Neo Liberals who are very similar to those that run the EU but there will be less checks and balances.
You may well be right, all political eras tend to have a shelf-life though, things go stale after a while no matter how well embedded they seem. The centre ground, where the votes naturally lie, is currently sitting a little to the right of where it has been for some time. A political party who correctly identifies this could do very well electorally, and it seems the Conservatives have done that (with a little unexpected help from Mr Farage and Mr Corbyn!).
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