South Wales electrification

[Markdvdman]

Bit of a strange question - are you saying that we should only spend money on things that improve the life of people in Maesteg? (though, realistically, people in Maesteg are probably more likely to visit London than Londoners are to visit Maesteg)

I'd rather spend the money based on the number of people benefitting from it, which is why I'd rather spend money electrifying the Valley lines rather than on rural routes in the middle of Wales, but also why I can see the justification for investing in busy stations in central London.



The point is that the MML has a better business case, but wasn't done - the line to Cardiff is getting wired (with a weaker business case). Yet some posters on this thread* seem to think there's an anti-Welsh agenda

It therefore looks like politics comes into things at least as much as economics does.

(* - not Greenback)

I think you are wrong as I stated.

This is the UK NOT London!

As I said London CAUSED the recession here at least with its wastril nonsense. You can say what you like that it MAKES more money but it also loses VAST amounts.

I can see a future where people want to escape London!

It is not quite as simple as you make it out to be!

 

[Greenback]

The point is that the MML has a better business case, but wasn't done - the line to Cardiff is getting wired (with a weaker business case). Yet some posters on this thread* seem to think there's an anti-Welsh agenda

It therefore looks like politics comes into things at least as much as economics does.

(* - not Greenback)

Thanks! Of course politics comes into everything. Just like the political first class restaurant car train to and form North Wales!

I wouldn't knock MML electrification, I see electrifying lines as important, possibly more important than HS2.

What I fail to understand is an individual line, or even a section of a line can be declared as unjustified in terms of electrification. By fail to understand, I mean I cna't understand what analysis has been done, or factors taken into account to come to that conclusion.

If the government said 'We will electrify to Bargoed, to Aberdare, and to Barry, but not to Barry Island, Penarth, Treherbert etc', I would have to know how they came to that conclusion!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I think you are wrong as I stated.

This is the UK NOT London!

As I said London CAUSED the recession here at least with its wastril nonsense. You can say what you like that it MAKES more money but it also loses VAST amounts.

I can see a future where people want to escape London!

It is not quite as simple as you make it out to be!

Arguing for more investment in Wales without any relevant facts can be self defeating.

The recession is a largely global phenomenon which was caused, as is usually the case with capitlaism, by a boom which no one thought would come to an end. The banks are certainly culpable, but so is anyone who borrowed large amounts of money base don an expectation that their assets would increase in value.

To blame a recession on a particular city is overlooking the deeper causes.

Futhermore, London will remain a big tourist draw. Visitors like the history, the pagaentry of the Royals, and the iconic attractions such as the museums.

London needs excellent transport infrastructure more than places that do not attract the same number of people, that is a simpel fact that is diffcult to escape from.

 

[tbtc]

I think you are wrong as I stated.

This is the UK NOT London!

As I said London CAUSED the recession here at least with its wastril nonsense. You can say what you like that it MAKES more money but it also loses VAST amounts.

I can see a future where people want to escape London!

It is not quite as simple as you make it out to be!

Your thesis on the recession is fascinating but it doesn't explain why you think that Maesteg should have investment instead of TCR.

The Crossrail website states that:

150,000 passenger journeys that are now made through the station every day

...talking just about the Underground services. When Crossrail arrives, this flagship station could mean significantly more passengers. Doesn't it make sense to invest in the busiest parts of the UK?

 

[Gwenllian2001]

Your thesis on the recession is fascinating but it doesn't explain why you think that Maesteg should have investment instead of TCR.

The Crossrail website states that:



...talking just about the Underground services. When Crossrail arrives, this flagship station could mean significantly more passengers. Doesn't it make sense to invest in the busiest parts of the UK?

I don't think that anyone is suggesting that investing in Crossrail is wrong. It is just that the amount needed to do a proper job in south Wales is miniscule by comparison. We are tax payers too so why should we have to suffer leaky, draughty and smelly Pacers? I notice that no one has ever dared to use them in the London area.

 

[Markdvdman]

Thanks! Of course politics comes into everything. Just like the political first class restaurant car train to and form North Wales!

I wouldn't knock MML electrification, I see electrifying lines as important, possibly more important than HS2.

What I fail to understand is an individual line, or even a section of a line can be declared as unjustified in terms of electrification. By fail to understand, I mean I cna't understand what analysis has been done, or factors taken into account to come to that conclusion.

If the government said 'We will electrify to Bargoed, to Aberdare, and to Barry, but not to Barry Island, Penarth, Treherbert etc', I would have to know how they came to that conclusion!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Arguing for more investment in Wales without any relevant facts can be self defeating.

The recession is a largely global phenomenon which was caused, as is usually the case with capitlaism, by a boom which no one thought would come to an end. The banks are certainly culpable, but so is anyone who borrowed large amounts of money base don an expectation that their assets would increase in value.

To blame a recession on a particular city is overlooking the deeper causes.

Futhermore, London will remain a big tourist draw. Visitors like the history, the pagaentry of the Royals, and the iconic attractions such as the museums.

London needs excellent transport infrastructure more than places that do not attract the same number of people, that is a simpel fact that is diffcult to escape from.

Royalty is getting a smack of hatred lately, as people are struggling big time to balance their own books.

Royalty in the UK really is probably facing a dying death. London is a tourist draw but one has to beggar as to why? It is a total nightmare!

You are WRONG. In terms of banking LONDON is the root of it in the UK. Talk about globality as to offset the blame is wrong. The UK is a BIGGIE in that context, and whoare WE to say we did not start the downward spiral towards recession?

It really needs us to admit blame. We are at fault, and I laugh at the Arriva contract when they are not spenders. They are a private company that costs us bigtime so why don't they invest? They make horrendous profits from us! It is pure capitalism that stinks and ultimately the blatant capitalism is to blame.

You have to have some form of capitalism, but greed put us where we are. I do not understand why there is no party prepared to be 50-50 on socialism and capitalism to get the best of both worlds and give everybody a chance - even the economy itself!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I don't think that anyone is suggesting that investing in Crossrail is wrong. It is just that the amount needed to do a proper job in south Wales is miniscule by comparison. We are tax payers too so why should we have to suffer leaky, draughty and smelly Pacers? I notice that no one has ever dared to use them in the London area.

Agreed. It is London or nothing and is a complete joke just like the Olympic flame nonsense.

 

[tbtc]

I don't think that anyone is suggesting that investing in Crossrail is wrong. It is just that the amount needed to do a proper job in south Wales is miniscule by comparison. We are tax payers too so why should we have to suffer leaky, draughty and smelly Pacers? I notice that no one has ever dared to use them in the London area.

Similarly we here in Sheffield are tax payers, we here in Sheffield are stuck with Pacers etc, we here in Sheffield have a good business case for electrification of the MML yet the line from London to Cardiff is being electrified instead (on political rather than economic grounds).

However Crossrail will be much busier than any of the local stations we are talking about in this thread - and if Crossrail weren't being built (with the help of contributions from London businesses) then it's unlikely that the money would be diverted to Maesteg instead.

 

[Markdvdman]

Similarly we here in Sheffield are tax payers, we here in Sheffield are stuck with Pacers etc, we here in Sheffield have a good business case for electrification of the MML yet the line from London to Cardiff is being electrified instead (on political rather than economic grounds).

However Crossrail will be much busier than any of the local stations we are talking about in this thread - and if Crossrail weren't being built (with the help of contributions from London businesses) then it's unlikely that the money would be diverted to Maesteg instead.

I agree I mean that EVERYONE deserves a fair slice of the pie!

London has way too much investment. The electorate is the UK yet we all outside of London get a raw deal!

The truth is a plan needs to be put forward to get the WHOLE of the network electrified! No bias then

 

[tbtc]

Royalty is getting a smack of hatred lately, as people are struggling big time to balance their own books.

Royalty in the UK really is probably facing a dying death

Really?

As the Queen prepares to celebrate her diamond jubilee, the royal family is enjoying record popularity

(link from that well known bunch of monarchists at the Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/may/24/queen-diamond-jubilee-record-support?newsfeed=true)

 

[Markdvdman]

Really?



(link from that well known bunch of monarchists at the Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/may/24/queen-diamond-jubilee-record-support?newsfeed=true)

Believe that rubbish as much as you like!

I speak to people that hate them and what they stand for.

I personally could not care less. I am no royalist, but for me I hate seeing them having special treatment.

It is an anathema to say royalty deserves this money, when we have to work hard to pay taxes and the vast majority of them do not. Not pay taxes, I mean in jobs that actually matter!

 

[Gareth Marston]

I remember going to meetings with the Strategic Rail Authority and repeatedly having the line thrust that London has 7 out of 10 of the network passengers start or finish their journeys in it as the justification for no investment away from there.
The recent ORR figures says London has 60.7% of all UK rail journeys - clearly its relative importance has declined considerably in the last ten years.

I'm all for wires to Sheffield too - as I said earlier in the thread we cant afford as a nation to have the "perfect" road network and a modern rail network. These arguments about politics and one area having wires instead of another boil down to the fact were still chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow promised by the road lobby - we just haven't got enough road space yet supposedly.

I suggest tbtc looks at the websites of all the local authority's between St Pancras and Sheffield and finds out how many relief roads/bypasses are being pushed - the money for your wires is there.

 

[OxtedL]

Markdvdman:
Please try not to drag this any further into ideology. It has no bearing on the outcome whether or not you like royalty, or whether you hate bankers, and indeed it might not even matter if this happened to apply to absolutely everyone living in the Valleys at this current moment in time. It's irrelevant. Stop bringing it up, you'll sink the thread.

Saying that South Wales "deserves" electrification is not much better than irrelevant either. I'm all for it myself, but there's a limit on how much can be spent. The argument is always going to be that spending the money elsewhere (for example on Crossrail) will benefit more people and have a far more beneficial effect on the economy than spending it where someone else would prefer it to be spent. This is what I'm going to call a FACT in capitals letters, because by putting it in capitals it becomes a FACT that EVERYONE has to believe. Clearly.

There's a practical side to this whole issue, as well as your ideological views and the wider political nightmare.

 

[Rhydgaled]

When Crossrail arrives, this flagship station could mean significantly more passengers. Doesn't it make sense to invest in the busiest parts of the UK?

Nothing wrong with spending billions on Crossrail, but as the article says it is being classed as UK spending, meaning Wales misses out on £1.9bn. London can have its many, many billions for Crossrail if Wales can have an equivent spend, per head of population, on electrification.

Similarly we here in Sheffield are tax payers, we here in Sheffield are stuck with Pacers etc, we here in Sheffield have a good business case for electrification of the MML yet the line from London to Cardiff is being electrified instead (on political rather than economic grounds).

Good point, but the MML has some Intercity trains that are complient with disability regs and aren't 30 years old until around 2035. While some IC125s can be kept going until 2035, we can't keep them all going that long so some will need to be replaced by 2020 (probably more than EMT use). So, even if politics is involved in putting GWML wires before MML wires (which I hope will happen too), it isn't the only reason.

 

[Greenback]

Believe that rubbish as much as you like!

I speak to people that hate them and what they stand for.

I speka to people that love them, and what they stand for. But it's still not evidence of anything, except that some hate the royals and some love them

I personally could not care less. I am no royalist, but for me I hate seeing them having special treatment.

Thiose two statements appear to be mutually exclusive

It is an anathema to say royalty deserves this money, when we have to work hard to pay taxes and the vast majority of them do not. Not pay taxes, I mean in jobs that actually matter!

It's bizarre! I am a republican, and I want to see the royal family abolished, yet your posts are causing me to defend them!

Anyway, to go back on topic, the most populous and economically important areas are going to have the most money spent on them. That is a fact, regardless of what we might want and argue for.

 

[tbtc]

Believe that rubbish as much as you like!

I speak to people that hate them and what they stand for

I'm no Monarchist, but the popularity of the royal family appears to be higher now than for many years (even if that doesn't suit your politics)

Nothing wrong with spending billions on Crossrail, but as the article says it is being classed as UK spending, meaning Wales misses out on £1.9bn. London can have its many, many billions for Crossrail if Wales can have an equivent spend, per head of population, on electrification.

Good point, but the MML has some Intercity trains that are complient with disability regs and aren't 30 years old until around 2035. While some IC125s can be kept going until 2035, we can't keep them all going that long so some will need to be replaced by 2020 (probably more than EMT use). So, even if politics is involved in putting GWML wires before MML wires (which I hope will happen too), it isn't the only reason.

People from all over the UK (and abroad) will benefit from Crossrail, so I can understand why it's a "national" issue as far as spending goes. For example, anyone going from south Wales to the City Of London/ Docklands etc will use it.

The 222s on the MML could just as easily be sent down to the GWML if it meant that we got electrification (and brand new trains) - they're not restricted to just the line they are on or anything.

 

[Markdvdman]

Markdvdman:
Please try not to drag this any further into ideology. It has no bearing on the outcome whether or not you like royalty, or whether you hate bankers, and indeed it might not even matter if this happened to apply to absolutely everyone living in the Valleys at this current moment in time. It's irrelevant. Stop bringing it up, you'll sink the thread.

Saying that South Wales "deserves" electrification is not much better than irrelevant either. I'm all for it myself, but there's a limit on how much can be spent. The argument is always going to be that spending the money elsewhere (for example on Crossrail) will benefit more people and have a far more beneficial effect on the economy than spending it where someone else would prefer it to be spent. This is what I'm going to call a FACT in capitals letters, because by putting it in capitals it becomes a FACT that EVERYONE has to believe. Clearly.

There's a practical side to this whole issue, as well as your ideological views and the wider political nightmare.

I am not dragging this into ideology!

It is always the case if someone has any controversial points it becomes ideology!

I have had enough of this and will not contribute any more to this thread.

 

[Gwenllian2001]

Similarly we here in Sheffield are tax payers, we here in Sheffield are stuck with Pacers etc, we here in Sheffield have a good business case for electrification of the MML yet the line from London to Cardiff is being electrified instead (on political rather than economic grounds.

So if you can't have what you want, you believe that no one else should? What 'political grounds' are involved in electrification to Cardiff? What 'political grounds' are involved with electrification to Bristol?

 

[HSTEd]

So if you can't have what you want, you believe that no one else should? What 'political grounds' are involved in electrification to Cardiff? What 'political grounds' are involved with electrification to Bristol?

The fact that the project had a worse financial and social case than the MML project which really should have been first for funding (the MML had a positive financial case whereas the GWML does not)

 

[anthony263]

The fact that the project had a worse financial and social case than the MML project which really should have been first for funding (the MML had a positive financial case whereas the GWML does not)

That is true however the GWMl was already getting partially wired for crossrail and perhaps it did make sense to extend to Oxford, Newbury for example to make use of the displaced class 319's which still had a number of years left in them.
Maybe then while planning of this someone took a look and proposed to continue the wiring through to Bristol and south wales.

Also you have to consider the fact the GWML is worked by hst's while the Midland Miainline has newer class 222's

 

[ChiefPlanner]

That is true however the GWMl was already getting partially wired for crossrail and perhaps it did make sense to extend to Oxford, Newbury for example to make use of the displaced class 319's which still had a number of years left in them.
Maybe then while planning of this someone took a look and proposed to continue the wiring through to Bristol and south wales.

Also you have to consider the fact the GWML is worked by hst's while the Midland Miainline has newer class 222's

Good answer .... MML will be electrified , - however (being an exiled Welshman) getting the wires beyond the commitment to Swansea is as important as getting wires north of Sheffield to Leeds on MML. Both will happen - lets not lay the "we are hard one by in region xxx)

 

[Gwenllian2001]

The fact that the project had a worse financial and social case than the MML project which really should have been first for funding (the MML had a positive financial case whereas the GWML does not)

Er no, that's called a government decision. I ask you again. What 'political grounds'? Do you think, perhaps, that the present government is anxious to please Tory voters in South Wales?

 

[Nym]

The fact that the project had a worse financial and social case than the MML project which really should have been first for funding (the MML had a positive financial case whereas the GWML does not)

The DfT for some reason doesn't seem to remember that stock can be moved around the country and did the GW Electrification to remove HSTs, the same reason that the Chiltern Main Line is quite low priority because they have reasonably new rolling stock. (And yes, I have seen that published somewhere)

(Chiltern is a bad example, but there are others, Snow Hill for example is a reasonable BCR, but artificially lowered in priority because it already has new rolling stock)

 

[Rational Plan]

That is true however the GWMl was already getting partially wired for crossrail and perhaps it did make sense to extend to Oxford, Newbury for example to make use of the displaced class 319's which still had a number of years left in them.
Maybe then while planning of this someone took a look and proposed to continue the wiring through to Bristol and south wales.

Also you have to consider the fact the GWML is worked by hst's while the Midland Miainline has newer class 222's

Also If I remember correctly The GreatWestern was due for a complete resignal about now and Network rail wanted to electrify at the same time to save money.

Like how Waterloo to Clapham is due for replacement in the early 2020's and thats why they are pushing up the rebuilding plans for Waterloo and will onlt sort out track platforms at Clapham junction at that time.

 

[Solaris]

Fyi....found this www.clickonwales.org/2012/05/critical-moment-for-the-cardiff-and-valleys-metro/

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Fyi....found this www.clickonwales.org/2012/05/critical-moment-for-the-cardiff-and-valleys-metro/

That's a very good and reasoned analysis.
One other political aspect is that by July the Gov may be very keen to approve such projects to kick-start the economy.
Trouble is it will be 4-5 years before any work on the ground can start.
We need some "shovel ready" rail projects.

 

[bailey65]

I think there is a good case for london to cardiff electrification they are two capital cities and south wales particularly newport and cardiff are seeing quite a bit of regeneration.
Cardiff bay area and city centre and newport dock area are being regenerated and if the valleys get electrified it will hopefully bring more growth and jobs to south wales.
I have a feeling once cardiff is complete the wires could well be extended to swansea.

 

[Batman]

If George Osborne does a bit of scratching his head over summer and decides to go for Plan A+, which involves another £5 billion on transport infrastructure projects, I'm guessing that electrification from Bedford to Nottingham and Long Eaton to Sheffield will almost certainly be announced in this years spending review.

Walsall to Aldridge and Barnt Green will depend on business cases.

But it will take a lot of lobying from the rail industry and local authorities/business leaders to get Sheffield to Hemsworth wired up as short sighted politicians won't be able to see how that will like in with the ICE project meaning that Edinburgh-Plymouth trains can up/down the pantograph at Derby instead of Wakefield.

And Cardiff - Swansea and the Valley lines will depend on how willing the WG are to come up with finding.

And that's still ignoring some of the mainlines I'd like to see electrified but are probably unaffordable in today's economic climate. These include Chester - Hollyhead, Derby to Bristol Parkway and Bristol to Plymouth.

 

[HSTEd]

Well once GWML and Midland project is done, the Cross Country infill between Plymouth/Paignton and Leeds ends up with a BCR of 5.4 (since Leeds-York is covered under TPE North apparently).

 

[paul1609]

I think (despite being a rail enthusiast) that if you are looking for transport infrastructure projects to boost the economy you would almost certainly go for for road projects. Main artery congestion M1, M6 etc is clearly killing the Northern economy. No amount of High speed passenger services are going to fix that when 99% of general goods go by road
Given the amount of Rail projects that are currently authorised in the period to 2020 supply and demand in whats a laregly specialist industry is just going to push project costs sky high.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I think (despite being a rail enthusiast) that if you are looking for transport infrastructure projects to boost the economy you would almost certainly go for for road projects. Main artery congestion M1, M6 etc is clearly killing the Northern economy. No amount of High speed passenger services are going to fix that when 99% of general goods go by road
Given the amount of Rail projects that are currently authorised in the period to 2020 supply and demand in whats a laregly specialist industry is just going to push project costs sky high.

Why invest in a declining mode? Haven't you heard road traffic is in its sixth year of decline.

 

[Rhydgaled]

I think there is a good case for london to cardiff electrification they are two capital cities and south wales particularly newport and cardiff are seeing quite a bit of regeneration.
Cardiff bay area and city centre and newport dock area are being regenerated and if the valleys get electrified it will hopefully bring more growth and jobs to south wales.
I have a feeling once cardiff is complete the wires could well be extended to swansea.

Doing electrification from London to Cardiff but not Swansea is stupid, you put the wires up but then have to run diesel trains anyway (ok so you don't burn so much diesel as you would if there were no wires, but you don't really get any of the other benifts of electric traction).

If they don't start on extending the wires to Swansea as soon as Paddington to Cardiff, Bristol and Oxford is done, they'll need to order the bi-mode IEPs, which means Swansea won't get electrified until 2030 at the earliest unless they decide to force underfloor engines on the Paddington - Plymouth/Penzance route (apparently stakeholders rejected a plan to use class 222s on that route, partly because of underfloor engines).