Who do you think will win the new Greater Western franchise?

[Class 33]

Who do you think will win the new Greater Western franchise?

First Great Western
Stagecoach
National Express
Deutche Bahn

I think it will be First Great Western again. Simply because they've been running it for so long now, and I can't really see another operator taking over. However, with them now taking over the West Coast franchise does this mean it is more likely now they'll lose the Greater Western franchise from 2013? But I still say they'll most likely win it again. I can see the headlines now "First retain Greater Western franchise for next 15 years". I would be VERY surprised if another operator takes over.

 

[F Great Eastern]

I hope it is FGW but if it is not them NX would be the one I'd least like to get it.

 

[Morgsie]

Interesting Question

 

[fairysdad]

I hope it is FGW but if it is not them NX would be the one I'd least like to get it.

Surely even the government at the moment can see just how bad NX are at running a railway...

 

[Monty]

Virgin were one of only two TOCs still in possession of an original franchise on the privatisation of BR (the other being Stagecoach's South West Trains). Yet they still lost it to First, so that does not make FGW safe by any stretch of the imagination. Though I agree currently they are in a strong position and are one of the favourites for the new Great Western Franchise.

However I would not be at all suprised Stagecoach went all out to outbid first and regain their loss of the market share. NatEx I think is a non starter for obvious reasons and I think Arriva's parent company DB will not risk over bidding and making promises they can't keep. Only my opinion of course.

 

[Aictos]

I hope it's either First or Stagecoach, NX no way!!!!

 

[Realfish]

I hope it is FGW but if it is not them NX would be the one I'd least like to get it.

It's difficult to guess, but given what's happened to their share price this morning, there's a good chance that First will have gone bust by 2013.

But after 25 yrs in the Civil Service I can confidently say that the end of the day, Civil Servants will decide who THEY want, and not necessarily against the bid criteria that they set.

 

[Morgsie]

The bids have to be submitted by October. When is the formal announcement made?

 

[MidnightFlyer]

I have to hand it to FGW, they've done a brilliant job; the transformation over the last 7 or so years is very impressive. I'd like them to keep it, but I wouldn't mind really if DB or SC got their hands on it, I don't think they're bad companies.

 

[Pumbaa]

I've got a feeling it will be the company with the most compliant bid.

Now there's a novel idea.

 

[sprinterguy]

The bids have to be submitted by October. When is the formal announcement made?

The winning bidder is expected to be announced in late February/early March next year.

 

[The Ham]

It may be interesting to see DB or Stagecoach running GW as they have services which "overlap" (Oxford/London and Exeter/London). I could imagine that you might see new routes which protect their revenue from certain services if they were to miss out on renewing their existing services. Either by means of new services and/or timetable "improvements" at the end of their franchise to make it difficult for the new comer to have a good market share.

 

[tbtc]

I've got a feeling it will be the company with the most compliant bid.

Now there's a novel idea.

Tsch, you and your facts...

 

[HH]

Hope is one thing. Want is another. But the question who do you think will win. I expect NX to win it. Why? Like First and West Coast, it will be seen as a "must win" bid. And based on West Coast, the DfT will not make the penalties high enough to discourage 'optimistic' revenue lines.

 

[ainsworth74]

Virgin were one of only two TOCs still in possession of an original franchise on the privatisation of BR (the other being Stagecoach's South West Trains).

Chiltern?

Who do you think will win the new Greater Western franchise?

First Great Western
Stagecoach
National Express
Deutche Bahn

Personally I think First have to win it. The first five+ years of the new GW franchise are going to a nightmare as from about 2014 onwards you're going to have wires going up, remodelling of stations/track and the introduction of IEP all within a short space of time. Personally I think handing the franchise to a new company with a new top management would not be a good idea as they'd still be learning how to run the railway when everything's fine let alone running it when chaos reigns. Whist First would already have a handle on the day to day running meaning they can focus more in delivering the various infrastructure and rolling stock programs.

 

[Monty]

Chiltern?

Chiltern have changed hands twice since it started out as a managment buyout from BR. The only real difference from FGW or C2C is that they haven't been rebranded..

I guess why I did'nt include it as being one of the last original TOCs, point taken though.

 

[VTPreston_Tez]

To be fair I always thought RENFE would be perfect for this franchise. I'm placing my bets on Stagecoach or National Express (NX could make a great comeback with the GW franchise if they play their cards right)

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Stagecoach now has access to a ready-made management team from VT.
I can see them being used to work on the GW bid, and run it if they win.
Trying to look on the bright side...

 

[RobShipway]

Stagecoach now has access to a ready-made management team from VT.
I can see them being used to work on the GW bid, and run it if they win.
Trying to look on the bright side...

That is my thoughts as to what will happen as well, with the team from First currently running FGW moving over to FWC.

 

[Class 33]

The winning bidder is expected to be announced in late February/early March next year.

Aaah that's ages to wait yet! I thought it was going to be December when the winner was announced.

 

[andypops]

Personally I think handing the franchise to a new company with a new top management would not be a good idea as they'd still be learning how to run the railway when everything's fine let alone running it when chaos reigns. Whist First would already have a handle on the day to day running meaning they can focus more in delivering the various infrastructure and rolling stock programs.

IMHO I strongly disagree. All 4 companies have experience of the day-to-day running of the railways in the UK - they are / have already had large franchises, and led them through severe problems. If management experience was a problem, surely the first place they would look to would be headhunting from the previous franchise, which would be reasonably straightforward.


In fact, DB would be particularly useful if they do win it, as they already operate a whole heap of freight all along the S Wales ML and areas in the West, so already have internal people who know the route covered, and can see what FGW are doing right / wrong. Think too of Arriva (also owned by DB) who would reap the benefits of combining services if the GW franchise could be brought under the DB umbrella. As an example, could you imagine a new service to Birmingham or Worcester from Cardiff via Hereford and the Marches line? Or a better connected service between S (and N) Wales, Shrewsbury, Bristol, west of England and London? Doesnt seem such a bad idea to me...!


Although having said that, my vote is still with First keeping the franchise - but there would have to be a serious, watertight backup plan in case of First failing with the additional stress of having to run the West Coast franchise too

So whilst the familiarity of First is comforting, maybe their other interests could prove a hinderance, not a help?

 

[ainsworth74]

IMHO I strongly disagree. All 4 companies have experience of the day-to-day running of the railways in the UK - they are / have already had large franchises, and led them through severe problems.

I agree that all are experienced my point was that they aren't experienced in the operation of the GW franchise specifically.

 

[anthony263]

My money as I have said before is on First for many reasons including the fact that they have previous experience of running the GW franchise so can handle all the upgrades etc over the next few years.

 

[richw]

The question is Who do i think WILL win the franchise. I cant make judgement on this without further information. I have therefore voted an answer to Who do I WANT to win the franchise.
I would like First to carry on, the improvements in the last 4-5 years have been remarkable and I would like to see them carry on the good effort.

 

[curly42]

I personally don't have a favourite,although I would not choose First,as I feel that they have made a pigs ear of a job of running it.

 

[Retorus]

I personally don't have a favourite,although I would not choose First,as I feel that they have made a pigs ear of a job of running it.

How? The early years were a bit dodgy but they've done a pretty good job since then.

 

[mallard]

I'd quite like to see somebody "new" on British railways, rather than just another one of the "usual suspects".

Realistically though, it'll probably go to one of the bus companies.

 

[cjp]

How? The early years were a bit dodgy but they've done a pretty good job since then.

Including taking the option to walk away from the last years of their franchise to avoid paying millions back to us the taxpaying travellers .

So anyone but First please

 

[mallard]

Including taking the option to walk away from the last years of their franchise to avoid paying millions back to us the taxpaying travellers .

So anyone but First please

You mean choosing not to take up the option of extending their franchise agreement for another three years beyond the original planned term because the business case wasn't there?

 

[richw]

Including taking the option to walk away from the last years of their franchise to avoid paying millions back to us the taxpaying travellers .

So anyone but First please

They didnt take that option. Their contract was for 7 years with an option for 3 years wrote in by Labour which they chose not to take up, as no longer good value for the last 3 years, as the optional 3 years was negotiated on the basis IEP and electrification would be in place by 2013.