East Coast franchise discussion (Previously: Rumour VT/Stagecoach to win)

[arfortune]

As many have said the Express is hardly a bastion of truth, let alone highly complex railway knowledge; It's also not the paper of choice for Whitehall leaks!

The announcement will be made whenever both sides, and their lawyers, are satisfied with the negotiations. Billions at stake so best not to rush.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Keolis should be aware of the standards expected of them by British rail passengers by now

If they are then there doing a good job of hiding it from me, certainly in the case of transpenine. Never had issue with Southern but by and large I like Govias opperations so this would explain it! i certainly look forward to the announcement and hope DFT Woant cock up again!↲

 

[GNER 373]

Well whoever it ends up in the hands of im just hoping they do a decent job, as well as EC has done over the last 5 years or so in my opinion. SNCF seem a pretty determined railway company in my (albeit limited) experience of French railways I hope they do the same for the ECML.

 

[jon0844]

It must be pretty hard to co*k up a route like this, whoever gets it. With new trains on the way, assuming they don't have loads of teething problems, the only real risk is those pesky wires.

 

[richardderby]

firstgroup and stagecoach shares are on a downward spiral, looking almost certainly like Eurostar/ keolis...

why can't this bloody goverment leave things as they are... :roll:

http://www.theguardian.com/business...talk-it-will-miss-out-on-east-coast-franchise

 

[jon0844]

Or someone stands to make a lot of money by getting people to think it's one company when it isn't. If it turned out to be First or Stagecoach, shares could bounce back nicely for someone...

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well whoever it ends up in the hands of im just hoping they do a decent job, as well as EC has done over the last 5 years or so in my opinion. SNCF seem a pretty determined railway company in my (albeit limited) experience of French railways I hope they do the same for the ECML.

Don't be taken by the quality of TGV - the rest of SNCF is basic at best.

Neil

 

[Tetchytyke]

Or someone stands to make a lot of money by getting people to think it's one company when it isn't. If it turned out to be First or Stagecoach, shares could bounce back nicely for someone...

Are you trying to imply that Civil Servants at DafT might possibly be corrupt?

What, given their glorious past history of transparent competence, would make you think that?

 

[Deerfold]

Are you trying to imply that Civil Servants at DafT might possibly be corrupt?

What, given their glorious past history of transparent competence, would make you think that?

I think they're suggesting someone might be planting stories to drive share prices down so they can buy them for less.

 

[jon0844]

I think they're suggesting someone might be planting stories to drive share prices down so they can buy them for less.

Yes, I wasn't blaming the DfT for this one.

 

[falcon]

It looks like First Group have got it then.The usual rubbish saying they have not( when those on the inside know they have) so the share price drops, they then buy the shares at reduced price. The official announcement that First have got it and the share price goes up and they are quids in. In 18 months time they hand the keys back saying they cannot make it pay.Good old fashioned capitalism.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I think they're suggesting someone might be planting stories to drive share prices down so they can buy them for less.

Ah, makes a bit more sense.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It looks like First Group have got it then.The usual rubbish saying they have not( when those on the inside know they have) so the share price drops, they then buy the shares at reduced price. The official announcement that First have got it and the share price goes up and they are quids in. In 18 months time they hand the keys back saying they cannot make it pay.Good old fashioned capitalism.

People can go to jail for that.

 

[Manchester77]

The official announcement that First have got it and the share price goes up and they are quids in. In 18 months time they hand the keys back saying they cannot make it pay.Good old fashioned capitalism.

While I am by no means a supporter of the system we have what evidence do you have that First Group will default on their newly won franchise and 'hand the keys back' as you say? It's just first group haven't done that on a franchise yet.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The Telegraph has picked it up now, and seems to endorse Keolis/Eurostar.
However, it's still based on watching the shares of First Group and Stagecoach, so it's not inside information.
You could argue the DfT dropped a strong hint in October when it said it was selling off its stake in Eurostar.
Maybe that's all it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...y-rumours-East-Coast-will-go-to-Eurostar.html

And the Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/business...talk-it-will-miss-out-on-east-coast-franchise

 

[ChiefPlanner]

As did the "Evening Standard" tonight. ....more when known as you say.

 

[Manchester77]

The Telegraph has picked it up now, and seems to endorse Keolis/Eurostar.
However, it's still based on watching the shares of First Group and Stagecoach, so it's not inside information.
You could argue the DfT dropped a strong hint in October when it said it was selling off its stake in Eurostar.
Maybe that's all it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...y-rumours-East-Coast-will-go-to-Eurostar.html
]

I thought selling off our bit of eurostar was part of Cameron & Osborne's answer to anything at PMQs - their 'long term economic plan' though and wasn't related to the DfT since its shares are in the treasury?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I thought selling off our bit of eurostar was part of Cameron & Osborne's answer to anything at PMQs - their 'long term economic plan' though and wasn't related to the DfT since its shares are in the treasury?

Yes, DfT passed the Eurostar shares to the Treasury in July to avoid a "conflict of interest".
It's beginning to look like that was a prudent move.

 

[CockneySparrow]

FirstGroup slides on talk it will miss out on East Coast franchise

Reports suggest Eurostar and Keolis frontrunners for controversial privatisation of rail service

FirstGroup shares have come off the rails following reports it may miss out on yet another franchise, this time the prestigious East Coast mainline.

The government is due to announce a winner this week of the business, which runs services from London to Scotland and has successfully been in public hands for five years.

Reports over the weekend suggested Eurostar and Keolis were frontrunners, leaving FirstGroup and a joint bid from Virgin and Stagecoach on the sidelines.

This would be the latest disappointment for FirstGroup, which was passed over for the ScotRail franchise, lost out for the Thameslink Great Northern service as well as the Essex Thameside operations.

FirstGroup shares have fallen 9.6p or 8% to 110.2p, while Stagecoach has slipped 4.3p to 363.8p.

The publicly owned East Coast service has returned more than £1bn to the taxpayer since it took over from National Express, which had run into financial difficulties. Rail unions have called the plan to reprivatise the service as a “national disgrace” and launched a campaign against the proposals.

http://www.theguardian.com/business...talk-it-will-miss-out-on-east-coast-franchise
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The Telegraph has picked it up now, and seems to endorse Keolis/Eurostar.
However, it's still based on watching the shares of First Group and Stagecoach, so it's not inside information.
You could argue the DfT dropped a strong hint in October when it said it was selling off its stake in Eurostar.
Maybe that's all it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...y-rumours-East-Coast-will-go-to-Eurostar.html

And the Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/business...talk-it-will-miss-out-on-east-coast-franchise

& The Telegraph

FirstGroup hit by rumours East Coast will go to Eurostar

Shares bus and rail operator slump amid fears it has lost out on yet another UK rail contract

Shares in FirstGroup hit the buffers on Monday, falling 10.5pc at one stage, amid rumours that it may have lost out on a contract to run the prestigious East Coast Main Line to two companies, including Eurostar, which are majority owned by France’s state railway.

The Department for Transport (DfT) is expected to announce the winning bidder for the East Coast line this week from a shortlist of three.

Keolis, an operator 70pc owned by France’s state railway, SNCF, submitted a joint bid with Eurostar, which has the same majority shareholder.

FirstGroup, plus a joint venture between Stagecoach and Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Trains also made the shortlist.

Shares in FirstGroup closed down 9.68pc at 108.2p amid fears the bus and rail operator has missed out on yet another franchise. FirstGroup has already come away empty-handed from four rail franchise competitions this year.

Stagecoach shares also closed down 1.55pc at 362.4p.

Any decision to hand the London to Scotland East Coast line to Keolis/Eurostar will re-ignite a highly charged debate around the re-nationalisation of Britain’s railways.

The Labour Party has proposed allowing a train operator owned by the UK government to bid for lucrative rail contracts, pointing out that foreign state-owned companies are allowed to do so but Directly Operated Railways (DOR), a group owned by the British taxpayer, is not.

DOR is an operator of last resort and can only step in to run railways when a franchise goes wrong - as was the case in 2009 when National Express handed back the keys to the London to Scotland East Coast line.

The Government sparked outrage when it said it would re-privatise the East Coast line before the General Election, prioritising it above other franchises. The East Coast Main Line is the only line run by DOR.

Ministers stirred up further discontent when it was announced in October that the Government was pressing ahead with the sale of a 40pc stake in Eurostar. SNCF owns 55pc of Eurostar, while the remaining share is owned by the Belgian government.

 

[alexl92]

The ONLY good thing about saying goodbye to DOR will be seeing the back of the tacky undercoat grey livery. The purple on white or black, or even a darker grey would look so much more striking. But that's a minor issue. Do we know when during 'this week' an announcement is expected?

 

[Suraggu]

The ONLY good thing about saying goodbye to DOR will be seeing the back of the tacky undercoat grey livery. The purple on white or black, or even a darker grey would look so much more striking. But that's a minor issue. Do we know when during 'this week' an announcement is expected?

Thursday or Friday is the odds on for the announcement.
I believe Grey is part of the next franchise commitment, the doors and coach/loco ends can change. Its all to do with the DfT trying to cut costs as repainting an entire fleet every 7-10 years is extremely expensive.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The Daily Mail has now joined the bandwagon and is "furious":

Fury as French bid to grab our East Coast line: State-run railway looks poised to take control after shares in other bidders fall
A bid by Channel Tunnel operator Eurostar International looks set to win the contract for the London to Edinburgh route
It is controlled by Socialist France's state-owned rail firm SCNF
If confirmed, decision is set to provoke outrage among UK rail bosses
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...h-bid-grab-East-Coast-line.html#ixzz3K4aUSsNH

It's worth remembering that the Keolis UK CEO Alistair Gordon used to work for Eurostar and led the Keolis bids with Go-Ahead for the Govia franchises.
The East Coast bid was run by Elaine Holt who would have all the inside information, having had senior roles for East Coast and Directly Operated Railways.
They seem pretty well qualified to run ICEC to me, whoever the ultimate owners of the franchise are.
Seems as close as you can get to "business continuity" in a refranchising.

That's assuming they win, of course.

 

[DownSouth]

The ONLY good thing about saying goodbye to DOR will be seeing the back of the tacky undercoat grey livery. The purple on white or black, or even a darker grey would look so much more striking. But that's a minor issue.

It's much more than a minor issue.

A new livery creates the perception that the trains are new or freshly refurbished, even if nothing else about the trains has changed.

New/refreshed trains (whether real or perceived) in turn create the perception that other aspects of the service have improved, even if they are just the same or even slightly worse.

A perception of a better service in turn leads to an increase in usage - but there's always the threat that if the service is noticeably worse than it was before, the increase in usage will be just temporary and followed by a permanent decrease.

 

[ainsworth74]

Its all to do with the DfT trying to cut costs as repainting an entire fleet every 7-10 years is extremely expensive.

Though don't trains come due for a repaint around that time anyway? Paint doesn't last forever

 

[Suraggu]

Though don't trains come due for a repaint around that time anyway? Paint doesn't last forever

Of course they do, but in the DfT eyes choosing a base paint scheme where franchise then can put embellishments on their trains akin to East Coast and TSGN with Great Northern and Thameslink fleets.

 

[Skimble19]

The whole arguement for companies not having their own livery on trains and stations to "save money" is not a particularly strong one.. Go and look at the state of trains and stations at the end of a franchise and you'll see that they need painting anyway, so what difference does it make to freshen things up slightly?!

 

[davetheguard]

The Daily Mail has now joined the bandwagon and is "furious":


It's worth remembering that the Keolis UK CEO Alistair Gordon used to work for Eurostar and led the Keolis bids with Go-Ahead for the Govia franchises.
The East Coast bid was run by Elaine Holt who would have all the inside information, having had senior roles for East Coast and Directly Operated Railways.
They seem pretty well qualified to run ICEC to me, whoever the ultimate owners of the franchise are.
Seems as close as you can get to "business continuity" in a refranchising.

That's assuming they win, of course.

Yep, I see the usual Daily Mail language is in there:

"furious"
"grab OUR"
"Socialist"
"French"
"state-owned"
"outrage"


Sounds like a lot of xenophobic poison to me.

 

[Tetchytyke]

what evidence do you have that First Group will default on their newly won franchise and 'hand the keys back' as you say? It's just first group haven't done that on a franchise yet.

They did on Great Western...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The ONLY good thing about saying goodbye to DOR will be seeing the back of the tacky undercoat grey livery. The purple on white or black, or even a darker grey would look so much more striking.

The grey was specified by DafT, and if the new franchisee wants to change it they have to pay to repaint both at the start and end of the franchise.

 

[47802]

The scots have the right idea with the Saltaire livery this business of continually repainting the trains in different livery's is crazy, glad to see there maybe some common sense developing at last

 

[55z]

Daily Mail & the Telegraph says it is Eurostar/Keolis that have got the franchise for East Coast. We wait to see.