Future Southeastern Class 395 order?

[ScotGG]

Twitter is often full of pics of overcrowded HS1 trains as some only run as 6 cars in the peak. In addition to this I've been reading that a huge theme park from Paramount (akin to Disneyland in visitor numbers) is to be built by Ebbsfleet so that will place a fair bit of extra pressure. In addition Ebbsfleet garden city is forecast to have 20k homes, and tens of thousands at other towns served by HS1 such as Stratford and also in Kent.

All this means more Class 395s will surely be needed wont it, or can the existing stock cope? If all goes to plan (and it's a big if) then the park and HS1 catchment area could mean tens of thousands of extra people in 5 years.

 

[telstarbox]

It depends on where and when Crossrail 3 gets built as well.

 

[ainsworth74]

I thought, because of the six-car running, there was actually a lot of slack in the 395 fleet? In which case it should be possible to introduce 12-car services without extra stock I would have thought.

 

[TheJRB]

There is not much slack in the 395 fleet at all, especially since the January timetable change with the introduction of the 3 hour 30 minute loop service via the Kent Coast which uses a good number of trains. There are 12 car workings too in the peaks and on Saturday mornings. In fact on weekdays there are 26 diagrams for the fleet of 29 units.

I use HS1 regularly and I can say from experience that it's always popular. Even the mid afternoon and Sunday departures from Ashford to London are well used.

Although I don't commute, I understand that things have changed in the new timetable. The frequency between Ashford and London has doubled from two to four trains per hour in the peak but quite a few are 6 car now that used to be 12. This has caused people to stand from Ashford to London which I believe was quite rare previously. A few changes have been made since the timetable change to ease this a bit but I think it's understood that there's less capacity than would be ideal. What's also interesting is that the 16:09 and 16:37 from St Pancras are now much busier than they used to be (and indeed almost as busy if not busier than some later peak trains). The 16:37 (formerly the 16:40) used to be 12 car and both are now 6.

All in all, I'd say it's about time there were more 395s. More doubled services on Saturdays would be welcomed too as currently it's just the 08:53 and 09:53 from Margate with no 12 car returns.

 

[Aictos]

If they can get the GoAhead (pun intended) from the DfT then maybe they could piggy back onto the South West Trains orders for the Class 707s and order a number of them for their Metro routes which would help with the overcrowding not sure on the numbers needed but no less then 15 units especially if ordered as 10 car trains.

As to the Class 395s, again I'm not sure on the numbers needed but enough to run all services as 12 cars plus have the capacity to run peak busters would go a long way toward improving a already popular service yes I know there are some services which can cope as 6 cars but if enough Class 395s are available to make overcrowded 6 car services into 12 car services with plenty of seats well it's best for business to do so.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

My gut feeling is that you won't see any future orders of class 395s, if they do order extra stock it'll probably be class 801s but with TVM installed as well as conventional signalling

 

[Haydn1971]

Class 395 cascades to.... Northern haha

Blah Blah Blah, again we get the cast offs from the south

 

[RobShipway]

Class 395 cascades to.... Northern haha

Blah Blah Blah, again we get the cast offs from the south

Other than you, no one has said about cascading the class 395s to Northern and I doubt that would happen anyway as they are the perfect train for the Commuter HS1 services.

If any new trains are added I think that it would be the AT300 rather than any of the class 800/801 and suspect that if GWR get the go ahead to order some AT300's, then I have no doubt that an extra order for South East Trains could be added to that order.

 

[Kentish Paul]

My gut feeling is that you won't see any future orders of class 395s, if they do order extra stock it'll probably be class 801s but with TVM installed as well as conventional signalling

Surely 801s at 26m will be far too long for the classic lines once off HS1. MK3s never made it to Kent.

I used the 09:43 from Ashford (first off peak HS service) to St P a few times during the easter holidays and despite being 12 cars from Ashford was standing room only. Obviously not as bad during term time but still quite full.

Stopped commuting recently but during that time noticed passenger numbers grow and grow.

I shall miss Tap East at Stratford.

 

[jopsuk]

The AT300 would be able to be ordered in six carriage, 20m long, no diesel back up, flat floor versions if desired. This would look very much like a Class 395- indeed, I think Hitachi already consider the 395s to be AT300s. Whether a fleet expansion order would be Class 395/1, class 396 or Class 80x is a matter for the Rolling Stock Library, operator etc.

 

[Mikey C]

The AT300 would be able to be ordered in six carriage, 20m long, no diesel back up, flat floor versions if desired. This would look very much like a Class 395- indeed, I think Hitachi already consider the 395s to be AT300s. Whether a fleet expansion order would be Class 395/1, class 396 or Class 80x is a matter for the Rolling Stock Library, operator etc.

Yes, the 800s will be pretty different from the 395s, which have shorter carriages, 1/3 2/3 doors, a higher top speed, don't need a diesel engine and need to run on the 3rd rail network as well!

 

[jopsuk]

Yup, but Hitachi explicitly say the 395 is an AT300:

Super Express: Our newest AT-300 derivative is designed to build on the great tradition of the iconic British Rail designed HST.

High speed and longer journeys: The modular train concept allows high-speed operation to be achieved with the AT-300. The versatility of the body shell design and system options delivers 225 km/h operation with options up to 250 km/h available.

Our AT 300 product is the basis for our very successful Class 395 unit built for HS1 operation.

And look at the "technical details" re door positions, number of carriages, carriage length etc.

 

[Pugwash]

They would be lovely stock to replace the 90's plus mk3 to Norwich on the GEML.

I think even the door placement is appropriate.

 

[Clip]

Is the main problem with the 395 fleet is that it seems to have too many stops and for some reason goes to Maidstone? Surely if you took that out then you free up some more of the fleet to strengthen others?

Mind you the uproar that would happen would be immense.

 

[Blamethrower]

Other than you, no one has said about cascading the class 395s to Northern and I doubt that would happen anyway as they are the perfect train for the Commuter HS1 services.

If any new trains are added I think that it would be the AT300 rather than any of the class 800/801 and suspect that if GWR get the go ahead to order some AT300's, then I have no doubt that an extra order for South East Trains could be added to that order.

He could've said it as a joke, that's what emoticons were invented for.

Welcome to the internet

 

[Kentish Paul]

At least the announcements have changed. At Ashford they used to say " South Eastern High Speed sevice to Margate/Dover", when after Ashford it was a normal service with normal fares.

Now the high speed bit is left out, same on board.

 

[jopsuk]

They would be lovely stock to replace the 90's plus mk3 to Norwich on the GEML.

I think even the door placement is appropriate.

Though door placement (corners or thirds) is one of the options. For a GEML fleet, I'd go with 11-car, 23m carriage, end doors with buffet counter catering. Though of course without serious investment the top speed would be wasted, even in 200km/h configuration.

 

[Haydn1971]

Other than you, no one has said about cascading the class 395s to Northern and I doubt that would happen anyway as they are the perfect train for the Commuter HS1 services.

Humour via a forum post is often missed

 

[RobShipway]

Humour via a forum post is often missed

Sorry the state of SWT trains is getting to me lately, like the fact that they have been running half trains. But that is a subject for a different thread.

 

[CosherB]

He could've said it as a joke, that's what emoticons were invented for.

Welcome to the internet

I was wondering that too! Maybe humour and irony are in chronic shortage?! lol

 

[Haydn1971]

Yep, meant in jest, but.... Given the drive for consistent fleets for operators, swelling the numbers of the HS1 commuter fleet could potentially see a larger fleet of new longer units procured and the 395's cascaded elsewhere.... Where ? Who knows !

Working on the ECML / GWML alongside the 800/801 fleets as commuter units, MML post electrification, TPE routes using heading to Newcastle or the Scotland legs ?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Southeastern's franchise ends in March 2018.
Why does anybody think the DfT will make major changes to the franchise when it was only granted a 4-year direct award 8 months ago?
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/rail-franchising-south-eastern-direct-award

 

[ScotGG]

No ones saying they will. It's about what changes will be needed when the franchise is renewed, as its looking very likely there will need to be additional stock pretty soon after 2018.

To those that doubt it It's worth looking at house building plans at areas served by HS1. Population rises of 100k around Ebbsfleet alone. A massive theme park (bigger than other UK equivalents and more like the huge ones around the world) with 50k visitors a day

However, the DfT have hardly been on the ball with prediction population and passenger rises. Frequently underestimated, and they don't seem to be working too closely with the Deprtments relevant to housebuilding, as they'd know North Kent and Stratford are 2 of the biggest growth areas in the entire country.

The plans for housing have bumbled along but every party now seems to recognise the UK is storing up big problems and will have to get building, and Ebbsfleet is the flagship project for parties.

 

[TheJRB]

Is the main problem with the 395 fleet is that it seems to have too many stops and for some reason goes to Maidstone? Surely if you took that out then you free up some more of the fleet to strengthen others?

Mind you the uproar that would happen would be immense.

You do raise an interesting point. Having HS1 available for domestic use has caused people from stations between Dover and Ramsgate in particular to ask for a direct St Pancras train in an hour and a half instead of being stuck on the slower Charing Cross train for two hours (although this is so much slower largely because of the all stations nature of the service between Ashford and Tonbridge). I think they are entitled to have such a service and they do in fact now have two an hour, albeit one of which takes the route via Herne Bay.

I hear that the Maidstone West peak services are well used and have catered for new property developments at Snodland.

I don't think we should be thinking in terms of reducing the service to extend trains but rather that we ought to be getting extra trains to allow a further increase in capacity.

 

[petersi]

Not to forget The Kings cross area is becoming a employment arae and eating destination with the Francis crick institute and st'pancreas square.

 

[RobShipway]

You do raise an interesting point. Having HS1 available for domestic use has caused people from stations between Dover and Ramsgate in particular to ask for a direct St Pancras train in an hour and a half instead of being stuck on the slower Charing Cross train for two hours (although this is so much slower largely because of the all stations nature of the service between Ashford and Tonbridge). I think they are entitled to have such a service and they do in fact now have two an hour, albeit one of which takes the route via Herne Bay.

I hear that the Maidstone West peak services are well used and have catered for new property developments at Snodland.

I don't think we should be thinking in terms of reducing the service to extend trains but rather that we ought to be getting extra trains to allow a further increase in capacity.

The extra trains to my mind should be AT300's as that is what the class 395's are in fact with 20M carriages.

However, I presume that the AT300 would have to be supplied from Japan as the Hitachi factory here would be at capacity building both the Class 800 and the Scottish AT200 trains.

 

[ag51ruk]

If these trains are now busy most of the time, it would be cheaper to extend the existing sets to 12 cars by buying additional coaches rather than brand new trains (assuming the order was big enough to make it viable for Hitachi) - although I appreciate that would make the fleet less flexible at quiet times and remove the possibility of splitting trains to different destinations. I don't think there is much spare capacity on HS1 or at STP itself to run lots of extra trains at peak times, so longer trains have to be the way to go.

 

[hulabaloo]

As a completely leftfield suggestion would it ever be possible to lease TGVs from France to run solely from Ashford to STP? As I say, leftfield.

 

[jopsuk]

I doubt TGVs could use the domestic platforms on HS1

 

[D365]

How about the Class 373 North of London sets? Shorten them maybe and reinstate the third rail equipment :P