• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

What next for LU? At full capacity...

Status
Not open for further replies.

mrmartin

Member
Joined
17 Dec 2012
Messages
1,011
It seems to me that TfL has managed to somewhat 'keep' pace with increased population by two main things:

1) People travelling more to the shoulders of the peak, eg travelling in earlier or later than before to avoid congestion

2) Upgrading existing lines to have higher frequencies.

I think 1) is masking some of the unmet demand. I will always get a train after 9-9:30 to work if I can as the central line is just so horrible it completely ruins my morning beforehand. However, looking at the stats (and loadings) increasingly more people are having the same idea and even at 10am it's unlikely you'll get a seat/have plenty of room to stand now. I am not sure how much more demand can be shifted this way.

2) on vic, central, jubilee and SSR soon will surely be at capacity. as will northern and pic soon after, with 30+ tph, where it is impossible to run anymore.

At this point I can't really see where any future 'supply' can come. Obviously Crossrail and Crossrail 2, but those new lines only seem to happen every 15-20 years and I think there must be a limit on interchange stations like TCR at some point.

It seems to me we are hitting a limit on rapid transit, in a similar way to us realising that building urban motorways didn't really solve the problem. We have a few more years of space to do upgrades on some lines but most are literally at full capacity.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

jopsuk

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2008
Messages
12,771
Additional lines are very expensive. More remote working/time shifted working has been talked about for a couple of decades and just doesn't seem to be happening. The cycle superhighways are one capacity improvement- bikes taking up much less surface space than cars (incredibly, there's still people driving to work in London that could easily use public transport or bikes).
 

mrmartin

Member
Joined
17 Dec 2012
Messages
1,011
Additional lines are very expensive. More remote working/time shifted working has been talked about for a couple of decades and just doesn't seem to be happening. The cycle superhighways are one capacity improvement- bikes taking up much less surface space than cars (incredibly, there's still people driving to work in London that could easily use public transport or bikes).

The thing is:

a) some jobs can't be done remotely
b) something like 15% of people in London already work at home. it seems very common for people in my industry to work at home 1 or 2 days a week.

the point i'm trying to make is there actually has been really significant shifts already in remote/flexible working that aren't apparent and despite that, passenger demand is still skyrocketing. and that all the (relatively) 'low hanging' fruit for improving capacity has been done or will be done in the next couple of years. I can't see where London can go from this if population keeps on rising.
 

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
16,636
It will have to be new lines I would think.
Not much else to be done.
 

swt_passenger

Veteran Member
Joined
7 Apr 2010
Messages
31,275
Any new tube sized lines are unlikely IMHO, it'll have to be a couple more 'Crossrails'. However they'll need to steer clear of existing interchanges with other lines and provide new and different ones to avoid overwhelming the likes of TCR and Oxford Circus. More intersections and less hub and spoke...
 

baz52

Member
Joined
7 Aug 2015
Messages
62
Hi all, well after thinking, ref to mrmartains point ref public transport, I had a quick look at some info about trolly buses the modern type single decker and also some that can run on own power also, I belive there are some that are like bendy buses so can carry more passengers, I think might be a good idea to look at say on some long main roads that run from outer london to the cbd ereas also much cleaner than normal buses, anyway sorry if slightly of topic and also sorry if not posted correct topic area. But if the tlf ug is pretty full apart from crossrail I cant see another way thats not to exspensive.
 

mrmartin

Member
Joined
17 Dec 2012
Messages
1,011
It will have to be new lines I would think.
Not much else to be done.

I agree, but is this actually practical? Demand for the tube (and NR services) is going up by 3+%pa. Crossrail, which will deliver a 10% improvement on the number of seats into central London. But it will take about 15 years of planning & construction to build it. In which time, demand for passenger journeys has increased by (assuming 3%pa) some 55%. That's an enormous difference.

Ok, there's stuff like thameslink and LO improvements. But again, these are sort of 'one off' improvements, I don't think they'll be able to get more than 24tph through the TL core. We've totally ran out of upgrade options.
 

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
16,636
Well you could have more than one Crossrail line under construction in parallel.
 
Last edited:

baz52

Member
Joined
7 Aug 2015
Messages
62
Just been reading on the tfl website crossrail, that the new crossrail trains will be 7 car formation, the southend line used to have great eastern class 312 emus and was 4 car and most times used to be class 312 emus coupled togeather , im not sure if the new trains will have greater capacity than the 312s , but maybe thats one way could cope with increased traffic, I think I read some where that will be 12 trains per hour offpeak, and as said already 24 trains max peak hours.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Sorry ment to say 2 x 4 cars class 312 ,
 

Haydn1971

Established Member
Joined
11 Dec 2012
Messages
2,099
Location
Sheffield
Well you could have more than one Crossrail line under construction in parallel.


Exactly, Crossrail 3 is already appearing in aspirational discussions, I'd expect it to start before Crossrail 2 is finished - with the next big idea starting before Crossrail 3 is finished.

I've said before that there comes a point also when the terminal stations will need distributing - TfL is already worried about HS2 pumping passengers at Euston, Waterloo is at breaking point, Paddington has had a part reprieve with Crossrail but when these projects are taking 20 years, actions need early starts.
 

Chris125

Established Member
Joined
12 Nov 2009
Messages
3,074
Just been reading on the tfl website crossrail, that the new crossrail trains will be 7 car formation

When Crossrail is fully operational all trains will be 9-cars long, but equivalent in overall length to to a 10-car 312.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
29,070
There's a limit on the number of new lines that can go across Central London, simply because of the depth they would have to be at the interchanges. This makes it much more difficult to dig out the new interchanges, and also means passengers have a long vertical journey.
 

rebmcr

Established Member
Joined
15 Nov 2011
Messages
3,845
Location
St Neots

matt_world2004

Established Member
Joined
5 Nov 2014
Messages
4,504
I reckon, Oxford Street may get some kind of tram only service, this will reduce the polution from the vehicles but will also increase road transport capacity on oxford street
 

JamesRowden

Established Member
Joined
31 Aug 2011
Messages
1,709
Location
Ilfracombe
A cheap way to meet demand might be to ban all motor vehicles in Central London at peak times except for buses and the emergency services. Make better use of all of those tarmac lines on the surface.
 

jopsuk

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2008
Messages
12,771
Not that crazy a suggestion- there's a lot of European cities moving in that direction
 

glbotu

Member
Joined
8 Apr 2012
Messages
644
Location
Oxford
Is there the demand for the lines that run south of the Thames to be extended?

But that doesn't increase capacity. Extending lines results in bringing more passengers onto existing lines. Unless you vastly improve capacity on those lines within London, extending them worsens the problem.
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
14,192
Location
St Albans
But that doesn't increase capacity. Extending lines results in bringing more passengers onto existing lines. Unless you vastly improve capacity on those lines within London, extending them worsens the problem.

The Bakerloo has lower maximum passenger numbers than most of the other lines. Both Northern branches are also lower than the top three (Jubilee, Central and Victoria) so there would be some capacity for expansion.
 

jopsuk

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2008
Messages
12,771
Just been reading on the tfl website crossrail, that the new crossrail trains will be 7 car formation, the southend line used to have great eastern class 312 emus and was 4 car and most times used to be class 312 emus coupled togeather , im not sure if the new trains will have greater capacity than the 312s , but maybe thats one way could cope with increased traffic, I think I read some where that will be 12 trains per hour offpeak, and as said already 24 trains max peak hours.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Sorry ment to say 2 x 4 cars class 312 ,

When in full operation the new stock will be 9 car long, but the carriages will be longer so the whole train will be 200m long- equivalent to a 10 car 312, 321, 315 etc.. The core stations I believe have been built to allow future operation of 250m max trains.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
one of the ideas of the "Crossrail" concept is that, especially if you have a small number of balanced branches, you can get much better capacity than by terminating in the centre of London. Terminating trains, especially packed high frequency suburban services, is bad for capacity.
 

glbotu

Member
Joined
8 Apr 2012
Messages
644
Location
Oxford
The Bakerloo has lower maximum passenger numbers than most of the other lines. Both Northern branches are also lower than the top three (Jubilee, Central and Victoria) so there would be some capacity for expansion.

Yeah, I mean, that's why the Bakerloo is mooted for extension to Lewisham/Hayes, but that is specifically due to the nature of the Bakerloo.

While the Northern is below the Jubilee/Victoria/Central in terms of tph, I think that due to the age/bendyness of the tunnels etc, it's much closer to its theoretical maximum.
 

TheNewNo2

Member
Joined
31 Mar 2015
Messages
1,008
Location
Canary Wharf
I personally want to see Oyster card flights between Heathrow and City Airport. Sure it wouldn't help capacity, but I just want it...
 

Taunton

Established Member
Joined
1 Aug 2013
Messages
10,020
Crossrail is going to make a substantial impact on the current overcapacity lines, it will relieve significantly both Central and Jubilee, along with a raft of others like the east end of the District. The Bakerloo's busiest point is Paddington transfers from the main line, which will be notably reduced.

Indeed, I am concerned that Crossrail may well be over capacity from day one, as it will be so much quicker than these established lines. There is scope in the underground section platforms apparently to add another two cars, not done at first because I believe of budget restrictions, but this will need more work on the surface sections.

Canary Wharf looks likely to be a crunch point, being a "core" generator (and ever more so as years pass and future developments come on stream) but down one of the branches and thus getting only half the service. At 5.30 this is surely going to become an issue. I also feel they have not ordered enough cars, they only have half the number that Thameslink ordered and there doesn't seem scope to increase frequency without ordering more.
 
Last edited:

jopsuk

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2008
Messages
12,771
Comparing the number of carriages between Thameslink and Crossrail is a bit of a red herring. The Crossrail stock uses longer carriages and the railway itself is far shorter
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top