2016 fare increases

[Cletus]

Next year's increases are based upon the July inflation figure.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33971890

The UK's inflation rate turned positive in July, with the Consumer Prices Index measure rising to 0.1% from June's 0%.

The Retail Prices Index measure of inflation was unchanged at 1% - the figure that will be used to calculate rail fare increases next year.

Also on the BBC website:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33968318

Rail fares have risen nearly three times faster than wages over the past five years, new analysis suggests.

Regulated fare prices jumped 25% between 2010 and 2015, while average pay rose 9% over the same period, according to a study by the TUC.

Rail unions are campaigning for train lines to be run by the public sector, which they say will cut prices.

The report comes ahead of inflation data, which will be used to calculate fare rises for next year.

The government has already announced that regulated rail fares in England will rise by no more than inflation for this parliament.

Regulated fares cover about half of all tickets sold including season tickets and day returns.

A restriction limiting increases in these fares to RPI (retail prices index) inflation has been in place for the past two years under the coalition government.

Rail minister Claire Perry said the government's plans would put an end to "inflation-busting fare increases".

"Next year's fares will see some of the lowest increases for decades," she added.

But TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady said many commuters were "seriously out of pocket" due to the sharp rise in fares.

"If ministers really want to help hard-pressed commuters they need to return services to the public sector.

"It would allow much bigger savings to be passed onto passengers," she added.

Action for Rail - the TUC and rail union-led campaign pushing to bring the railways back into public ownership - claims £1.5bn could be saved over the next five years if routes, including the Northern, Transpennine and West Coast Main Line, were returned to the public sector.

A third of this would come from recouping the money private train firms pay in dividends to shareholders, according to Action for Rail which
commissioned the research from transport consultancy Transport for Quality of Life.

The analysis comes as a separate report from transport charity Campaign for Better Transport found the UK lags behind the rest of Europe on flexible rail tickets.
Currently season ticket holders only save if they use their tickets for five out of seven days, but it said shorter season tickets such as a four or three-day-a-week tickets would enable part-time commuters to also make savings.

"The UK government and train operators are dragging their feet, meaning many part-time workers are being priced off the railway," said the charity's public transport campaigner Martin Abrams.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This is the DfT line: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/earnings-outstrip-rail-fare-increases-for-first-time-in-a-decade

The move by the government to keep regulated rail fare increases at Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation and no more for the life of this Parliament will save season-ticket holders around £425 each - enough for a new iPad or a weekend break - by 2020. Most journeys in 2014 were made using a regulated fare

Apparently the government has just gifted you an iPad!
The stock photo used at the top of the press release was, I think, taken at Edinburgh Waverley.
Which is misleading, because the DfT announcement actually only applies to England (except TfL and Merseyrail), and does not cover Wales or Scotland which have their own fares policy.

 

[swt_passenger]

The usual sweeping generalisation:

"Currently season ticket holders only save if they use their tickets for five out of seven days, but it said shorter season tickets such as a four or three-day-a-week tickets would enable part-time commuters to also make savings."

Round here (Winchester/Southampton) a weekly season to London pays for itself if you make two peak journeys. I don't think this is the only area with such large savings...

 

[Simon11]

To add to SWT_passenger

I personally enjoyed:
"Rail unions are campaigning for train lines to be run by the public sector, which they say will cut prices."

"Action for Rail - the TUC and rail union-led campaign pushing to bring the railways back into public ownership - maintains that £1.5bn could be saved over the next five years if routes, including the Northern, Transpennine and West Coast Main Line, were returned to the public sector."

No way are these realistic

 

[swt_passenger]

I personally enjoyed:
"Rail unions are campaigning for train lines to be run by the public sector, which they say will cut prices."

"Action for Rail - the TUC and rail union-led campaign pushing to bring the railways back into public ownership - maintains that £1.5bn could be saved over the next five years if routes, including the Northern, Transpennine and West Coast Main Line, were returned to the public sector."

No way are these realistic

It is the newspaper silly season after all. Don't the TUC etc launch this story in mid August every year?

 

[pemma]

It is the newspaper silly season after all. Don't the TUC etc launch this story in mid August every year?

They could cut their own admin costs by getting a developer to write a script which automatically sends out the same press release every August.

 

[Aldaniti]

This is the DfT line: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/earnings-outstrip-rail-fare-increases-for-first-time-in-a-decade



Apparently the government has just gifted you an iPad!
The stock photo used at the top of the press release was, I think, taken at Edinburgh Waverley.
Which is misleading, because the DfT announcement actually only applies to England (except TfL and Merseyrail), and does not cover Wales or Scotland which have their own fares policy.

Utterly patronising... as if they're doing you a favour...

 

[pemma]

Utterly patronising... as if they're doing you a favour...

Given Labour promised to freeze regulated rail fares for 2016 you could just as easily argue the Conservatives are depriving hard working people of two family trips to the cinema next year.

 

[infobleep]

Given Labour promised to freeze regulated rail fares for 2016 you could just as easily argue the Conservatives are depriving hard working people of two family trips to the cinema next year.

Depends on which cinema you attend. Someone has told me one in Bognor is under £5 for adults.

 

[pemma]

Depends on which cinema you attend. Someone has told me one in Bognor is under £5 for adults.

I agree cinema ticket prices vary between towns but then so do rail fares. The DfT iPad claim seems to presume that people in PTE areas can get iPads cheaply while people in central London pay a higher rate.

 

[Starmill]

I'm still reeling from this year's increases. Their effect seemed more punishing than previous January rises. Maybe it's because I have been wanting to do more travelling. There is no doubt my demand is being suppressed by the ridiculous prices we are asked to pay!

 

[Hadders]

Blimey - I'm not condoning fares increases (and many do increase more than they need to) but I can remember when inflation was running at more than 10%.

Imagine what that would do to fares today...

 

[westv]

Blimey - I'm not condoning fares increases (and many do increase more than they need to) but I can remember when inflation was running at more than 10%.

Imagine what that would do to fares today...

I remember when inflation exceeded 20%.

 

[pemma]

Blimey - I'm not condoning fares increases (and many do increase more than they need to) but I can remember when inflation was running at more than 10%.

Imagine what that would do to fares today...

Two points:
1. If people's earnings are going up at the rate of inflation and the cost of tickets is increasing at the rate of inflation then it doesn't really matter what the rate of inflation is as people will have more money to spend on tickets.
2. The RPI formula only applies to regulated fares. Many leisure travellers using operators such as Virgin, TPE and XC have seen ticket prices go up at a much higher rate in recent years and rises at or above 10% have been applied to unregulated fares.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

If people's earnings are going up at the rate of inflation and the cost of tickets is increasing at the rate of inflation then it doesn't really matter what the rate of inflation is as people will have more money to spend on tickets.

One point constantly gets me annoyed...
If my earnings go up by 3%, and my season ticket goes up by 3%, I am told that I am 'no worse off' in real terms. I beg to differ. My pay may have gone up 3%, but the effect of income tax and NI means I am actually only 2% better-off in terms of real take-home pay. So, in such a scenario, I am actually worse off !!!

 

[Camden]

Outside of the rail industry, especially at the lower end of the wage scale, static wages are common including people who basically will always bob around inside one narrow wage band. It's easy enough to find someone today earning £18 grand a year today who was still earning £18 grand a year in 2005, it's easy enough to find jobs advertised for the same salaries today as 10 years ago too. A 2% rise is cumulative on top of all the rises that have happened previously, and each year fares go up by a single penny it makes it a penny harder for many to afford it.

Why do we accept that rail fares have to go up each and every year? All it suggests is a lazy approach and no handle on costs.

 

[pemma]

One point constantly gets me annoyed...
If my earnings go up by 3%, and my season ticket goes up by 3%, I am told that I am 'no worse off' in real terms. I beg to differ. My pay may have gone up 3%, but the effect of income tax and NI means I am actually only 2% better-off in terms of real take-home pay. So, in such a scenario, I am actually worse off !!!

It's easy enough to find someone today earning £18 grand a year today who was still earning £18 grand a year in 2005, it's easy enough to find jobs advertised for the same salaries today as 10 years ago too.

Let's use £18,000 as an example and presume the person has a pre-2011 student loan as well so the deductions are as high as they can be.

Using an online tax calculator http://www.listentotaxman.com/ (which isn't 100% accurate) a gross salary of £18,000 in 14/15 would have produced a net salary of £15,096.72. With no pay rise in 15/16 that has become a net salary of £15,229.20 (a 0.9% increase), with a 3% pay rise that would become a net salary of £15,547.40 (a 2.99% increase.)

 

[Camden]

Which, even if they do receive a pay rise at all, has to cover a lot more in life's rising costs than just their season ticket.

 

[pemma]

Which, even if they do receive a pay rise at all, has to cover a lot more in life's rising costs than just their season ticket.

If their cost of living and net salary both go up at the rate of RPI then they are no better or no worse off. However is the cost of diesel taken in to account for RPI, as that has been falling this year.

 

[arb]

My pay may have gone up 3%, but the effect of income tax and NI means I am actually only 2% better-off in terms of real take-home pay.

Your gross pay will have gone up by 3% of your old gross salary. Similarly your take-home net pay will have gone up by 3% of your old take-home pay (ignoring effects caused by boundaries in tax levels). You are 3% better off.

It's true that your net pay will only have gone up by 2% of your old gross pay, but then you're not comparing like with like.

 

[kieron]

If their cost of living and net salary both go up at the rate of RPI then they are no better or no worse off. However is the cost of diesel taken in to account for RPI, as that has been falling this year.

Yes it is. Table 44 seems like the most relevant one.

It gives Rail Fares a similar weighting to Biscuits and Cakes in the figures, so perhaps it would be more useful to think of next years average regulated fare rise in terms of fig rolls.

 

[Howardh]

Given Labour promised to freeze regulated rail fares for 2016 you could just as easily argue the Conservatives are depriving hard working people of two family trips to the cinema next year.

Would they go by train?

 

[IanXC]

This is the DfT line: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/earnings-outstrip-rail-fare-increases-for-first-time-in-a-decade



Apparently the government has just gifted you an iPad!
The stock photo used at the top of the press release was, I think, taken at Edinburgh Waverley.
Which is misleading, because the DfT announcement actually only applies to England (except TfL and Merseyrail), and does not cover Wales or Scotland which have their own fares policy.

Hmm, maybe it's just me but has the picture been changed?!

 

[Starmill]

Looks like Sheffield to me?

 

[pemma]

Would they go by train?

Huh?

The Conservatives are claiming they are effectively gifting an iPad to commuters by reducing the increase to RPI, I was providing the counter claim they are costing them two family trips to the cinema given Labour promised a 0% increase for 2016 in their manifesto and the Conservatives are increasing fares by 1%.