Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[Gareth Marston]

I'd actually quite like to see something which Bletchleyite suggested about reforming units, but using the 22 185s coming off lease, not the 175s (let's be honest with the 175 track record any kind of major structural or electronic changes are likely to cause chaos for reliability!).

New timetable for Manchester to South Wales; an hourly Manchester to Swansea service calling only at principle stations (ie. not Leominster, Craven Arms, Pyle, Nantwich etc). Nine units required, these being 4-car 185s with a similar refurb standard to that which TPE are applying now. First class section retained but perhaps a little smaller, if possible. Two more 4-car units booked for maintenance at Ardwick making a reformed 185 fleet comprising of 11 x 4-coach (with FC) and 11 x 2-coach units (FC removed but still refurbished). I think that would work well.

As for the 11 remaining 2-coach 185s, let's say if 10 are in service then I guess they'd be suitable for a Liverpool to Llandudno stopping service, perhaps running as 4-coach portion trains as far as Chester, with the other set going to Wrexham or even to Shrewsbury via Crewe and thus incorporating the two current shuttle services.

I don't know how the numbers add up here but ideally it would mean the whole 175 fleet could be concentrated on Manchester to Bangor/Holyhead (hourly and mixture of 3-coach and strengthened), Holyhead to Cardiff (realistically hourly; fast until Chester and then all stops from Chester to Cardiff) and finally some or all of an hourly Cardiff to West Wales stopping service.

The 4 car conversions of the 185's actually works quite well in that you need 9 diagrams covering an hourly Swansea to Manchester service and covers the core Mainline of the franchise. Having 15 3 car Class 175's, 12 2 Car Class 175's and 11 2 Car Class 175's gives you a lot of flexibility in what else you do.

 

[CommuterPigeon]

Forgive me if I'm wrong but are there not a load of speed differentials on the Marches line which means 185s cannot run at line speed on large sections of it?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Forgive me if I'm wrong but are there not a load of speed differentials on the Marches line which means 185s cannot run at line speed on large sections of it?

Between Shrewsbury and Onibury (south of Craven Arms), there are about half a dozen locations, mostly 20mph less than MU limits.
Between Shrewsbury and Crewe the whole route is pretty much 70/MU90, so yes, a long stretch of differential.
South of Onibury there are no differentials and the line speed is mostly 90mph as far as Pontypool.
It seems to be the legacy of the different treatment of the line by the WR and LMR in BR days.
I'm pretty sure the 175s had to take the lower differentials initially, but were passed at MU speeds when they took over the bulk of the service.
I don't know if there is scope for the same thing to happen to 185s or similar overweight DMUs.

 

[Philip]

Between Shrewsbury and Onibury (south of Craven Arms), there are about half a dozen locations, mostly 20mph less than MU limits.
Between Shrewsbury and Crewe the whole route is pretty much 70/MU90, so yes, a long stretch of differential.
South of Onibury there are no differentials and the line speed is mostly 90mph as far as Pontypool.
It seems to be the legacy of the different treatment of the line by the WR and LMR in BR days.
I'm pretty sure the 175s had to take the lower differentials initially, but were passed at MU speeds when they took over the bulk of the service.
I don't know if there is scope for the same thing to happen to 185s or similar overweight DMUs.

I guess where time will be lost through the speed differentials, time will be made up through their superior acceleration and potentially with less stops to make than at present. If the Manchester to South Wales route became entirely 185 traction as I've suggested and the timetable designed around that, then I wouldn't think it'd be a problem.

The door layout arrangement and whether it makes the train feel 'intercity-like' is a personal taste thing. What is not in doubt is that the interior is comfortable and popular with passengers (going by the surveys) and importantly they are mechanically sound, so that makes them suitable for longer distance routes. I think the one big drawback which might turn a TOC away from taking them on is the poor fuel consumption.

 

[PR1Berske]

A general, maybe trivial question for the thread: in this current era of a clear pattern of franchise names, what name will be given to Wales and Border services? "Rheilffordd Cymru" perhaps to test the auto announcer?

 

[DT611]

I guess where time will be lost through the speed differentials, time will be made up through their superior acceleration and potentially with less stops to make than at present. If the Manchester to South Wales route became entirely 185 traction as I've suggested and the timetable designed around that, then I wouldn't think it'd be a problem.

The door layout arrangement and whether it makes the train feel 'intercity-like' is a personal taste thing. What is not in doubt is that the interior is comfortable and popular with passengers (going by the surveys) and importantly they are mechanically sound, so that makes them suitable for longer distance routes. I think the one big drawback which might turn a TOC away from taking them on is the poor fuel consumption.

could they be re-engined? Or would it be to costly to do?

 

[Dai Corner]

A general, maybe trivial question for the thread: in this current era of a clear pattern of franchise names, what name will be given to Wales and Border services? "Rheilffordd Cymru" perhaps to test the auto announcer?

I dont know, but I'd put a fiver on it promoting more discussion in some quarters than boring things like rolling stock and timetables

 

[PR1Berske]

I dont know, but I'd put a fiver on it promoting more discussion in some quarters than boring things like rolling stock and timetables

If they put the Welsh bit first, you'd win that bet

 

[gareth950]

A general, maybe trivial question for the thread: in this current era of a clear pattern of franchise names, what name will be given to Wales and Border services? "Rheilffordd Cymru" perhaps to test the auto announcer?

How about "The next train to arrive on Platform 1 is the 1530 Wales and Borders service to.........". I guess that's too simple though . I know for sure the services in the Metro area will be branded as 'Transport for Wales', it wouldn't surprise me if that branding is used for the whole franchise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

could they be re-engined? Or would it be to costly to do?

It's more them being a bit heavy. I suppose you could remove an engine, though that would reduce reliability.

As for the doors...ATW don't have any true IC services nor will they have, political pawns like Gerald aside. They are all long distance regional express services[1], for which the Class 185 style door layout is fine. Indeed, as a 4-car unit that wasn't quite so overweight the 185 would be ideal, or indeed the 170/172-with-armrests-and-tables-added. (The 170s have performed just fine on Scottish "IC" services over the years - the only real problem with them has been them being too short).

[1] Other example of such: Liverpool-Norwich, on which Class 170s worked very well in CT days (to the extent that anything worked on CT ).

 

[DT611]

It's more them being a bit heavy. I suppose you could remove an engine, though that would reduce reliability.

You really wouldn't need to remove an engine, it's much better for each car to continue having one. what i was thinking of was how to deal with the fuel consumption issue, hence suggesting that maybe if a re-engining could be done with something modern if able to fit, it would make the units more attractive to other TOCS. i think the weight while a bit of an issue, is something that can't really be dealt with. but if they were able to be made more fuel efficient, then the weight probably could be looked away from?

As for the doors...ATW don't have any true IC services nor will they have, political pawns like Gerald aside. They are all long distance regional express services[1], for which the Class 185 style door layout is fine. Indeed, as a 4-car unit that wasn't quite so overweight the 185 would be ideal, or indeed the 170/172-with-armrests-and-tables-added. (The 170s have performed just fine on Scottish "IC" services over the years - the only real problem with them has been them being too short).

[1] Other example of such: Liverpool-Norwich, on which Class 170s worked very well in CT days (to the extent that anything worked on CT ).

I see.

 

[edwin_m]

You really wouldn't need to remove an engine, it's much better for each car to continue having one. what i was thinking of was how to deal with the fuel consumption issue, hence suggesting that maybe if a re-engining could be done with something modern if able to fit, it would make the units more attractive to other TOCS. i think the weight while a bit of an issue, is something that can't really be dealt with. but if they were able to be made more fuel efficient, then the weight probably could be looked away from?

I doubt engine technology has progressed enough in the last decade or so to make any cost savings from re-engining worthwhile. Also a new engine would be subject to the latest emission regulations so space would have to be found for extra equipment to clean up the exhaust. I guess it would be possible to replace hydrostatic transmissions with mechanical ones, though apparently the fuel saving didn't justify the cost when it was experimentally done on a 158.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You really wouldn't need to remove an engine, it's much better for each car to continue having one. what i was thinking of was how to deal with the fuel consumption issue

The main cause of the fuel consumption issue is that they are very heavy units. The side issue of large engines using too much fuel *to run* has been dealt with already by only having two in use at once on rotation.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well at least if they do come to the Manchester to Cardiff run the fuel will be used to carry worthwhile quantity's of fare paying passengers from whee they live/work to where they wont to go unlike the fleet Class 802's Transport for Wales want on the hourly Cardiff to Holyhead service!

 

[Dai Corner]

Well at least if they do come to the Manchester to Cardiff run the fuel will be used to carry worthwhile quantity's of fare paying passengers from whee they live/work to where they wont to go unlike the fleet Class 802's Transport for Wales want on the hourly Cardiff to Holyhead service!

Well , we can't have passengers travelling to north Wales in inferior trains to those going to London can we? That electric capability will help the environment between Cardiff and Newport and the 125mph top speed will be attained, er, how much did you say for upgrading the Marches line (not the bits in England, obviously)?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well , we can't have passengers travelling to north Wales in inferior trains to those going to London can we? That electric capability will help the environment between Cardiff and Newport and the 125mph top speed will be attained, er, how much did you say for upgrading the Marches line (not the bits in England, obviously)?

Some nice modern bi-modes would be good if the money was there, but I'd go FLIRT rather than 80x, there is no need for the high top speed unless there was a plan to replace VT on the North Wales IC runs.

But my view remains that Cardiff to Holyhead is not a train service that itself suits demand, but is instead a political construct. The old pattern of Chester to south Wales and North Wales to Birmingham far more usefully reflected actual travel patterns.

 

[Dai Corner]

Some nice modern bi-modes would be good if the money was there, but I'd go FLIRT rather than 80x, there is no need for the high top speed unless there was a plan to replace VT on the North Wales IC runs.

But my view remains that Cardiff to Holyhead is not a train service that itself suits demand, but is instead a political construct. The old pattern of Chester to south Wales and North Wales to Birmingham far more usefully reflected actual travel patterns.

It would be interesting to know how many passengers (are forced to) change at Shrewsbury.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Well , we can't have passengers travelling to north Wales in inferior trains to those going to London can we? That electric capability will help the environment between Cardiff and Newport and the 125mph top speed will be attained, er, how much did you say for upgrading the Marches line (not the bits in England, obviously)?

Some nice modern bi-modes would be good if the money was there, but I'd go FLIRT rather than 80x, there is no need for the high top speed unless there was a plan to replace VT on the North Wales IC runs.

But my view remains that Cardiff to Holyhead is not a train service that itself suits demand, but is instead a political construct. The old pattern of Chester to south Wales and North Wales to Birmingham far more usefully reflected actual travel patterns.

I'm sure all the bidders have looked at the financial implications of a fleet of 12/14 802's and kicked it in the long grass no matter how many times the clueless TfW drop hints, though I'm sure there will be bonus points a plenty for buying CAF DMU's screwed togethar at Newport.

Perhaps a mini Gerald Fleet of Class 802's might tickle some bidders fancy of scoring brownie points. 4/5 of them could see a couple a day Flagship trains to West Wales as well as Holyhead?

 

[Gareth Marston]

It would be interesting to know how many passengers (are forced to) change at Shrewsbury.

The last figures I came across showed the market for N Wales to S Wales as being a bit more than the annual footfall here @ Newtown. Which is why basing the whole strategy of the franchise around the needs of a few vocal public sector worker in North Wales is such a folly, its the tail wagging the dog....

 

[pemma]

A general, maybe trivial question for the thread: in this current era of a clear pattern of franchise names, what name will be given to Wales and Border services? "Rheilffordd Cymru" perhaps to test the auto announcer?

Given the automated announcements at Chester station contain 2 mispronunciations of Cheshire stations, I think there may be complaints if the announcements could get a foreign language name correct but not two local stations!

 

[DT611]

I doubt engine technology has progressed enough in the last decade or so to make any cost savings from re-engining worthwhile. Also a new engine would be subject to the latest emission regulations so space would have to be found for extra equipment to clean up the exhaust. I guess it would be possible to replace hydrostatic transmissions with mechanical ones, though apparently the fuel saving didn't justify the cost when it was experimentally done on a 158.

The main cause of the fuel consumption issue is that they are very heavy units. The side issue of large engines using too much fuel *to run* has been dealt with already by only having two in use at once on rotation.

Thank you both for your replies.

 

[squizzler]

The Heart of Wales line's Facebook page just posted to say that Arriva Trans Wales MD Tom Joyner will be responding to questions on their Twitter from 5pm today - hashtag #TalkToTom.

 

[Dai Corner]

The Heart of Wales line's Facebook page just posted to say that Arriva Trans Wales MD Tom Joyner will be responding to questions on their Twitter from 5pm today - hashtag #TalkToTom.

This is the the only interesting question and answer I saw

https://mobile.twitter.com/aniceenglishman/status/930472663285411841

Managing Director for Arriva Trains Wales, Tom Joyner, will be joining the Twitter team today from 5pm to answer your questions. Join the conversation using #TalkToTom

1:43 pm · 14 Nov 2017
1

Like



Chris Boots
@aniceenglishman
·
2h

Replying to @ArrivaTW
Can you tell us anything about why Arriva has decided not to bid for the new franchise? #TalkToTom
1




Arriva Trains Wales
@ArrivaTW
·
1h

Chris - good question. It was a decision for Arriva Group and we only recently heard that they were leaving the bidding process so I cant give any details - but what I do know is that we still want to continue to invest in 2018. Tom
1




Chris Boots
@aniceenglishman
·
1h

So the bid team worked in complete isolation from their colleagues managing the existing franchise? Interesting.
2



Arriva Trains Wales
@ArrivaTW
·
1h

The competition process is rightly being run by Transport for Wales. Here at Arriva Trains Wales our role is to keep improving our services which is what I know our colleagues are doing on a daily basis. Tom



Chris Boots
@aniceenglishman
·
2h

Replying to @ArrivaTW

 

[CommuterPigeon]

Just to clarify the above, as far as I understand it in a normal bid the incumbent isn't allowed to communicate with the current franchise except for normal "day to day" stuff as it's deemed to give a competitive advantage, all communication has to go through the DfT. I assume this will have been the same for this franchise too.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Here's how the lack of transparency and the lack of explanation as to why Arriva pulled out is effecting Stakeholders. Machynlleth Town Council has launched a "Save Machynlleth Depot" Campaign

A Welsh Government spokesperson said it could not yet comment on the future of the Machynlleth depot as the three bidders would put forward their own plans for maintenance facilities.

http://www.cambrian-news.co.uk/arti...of train depot&sectionIs=News&searchyear=2017

http://www.cambrian-news.co.uk/arti...th train depot&sectionIs=News&searchyear=2017

 

[PaulHarding150]

Just to clarify the above, as far as I understand it in a normal bid the incumbent isn't allowed to communicate with the current franchise except for normal "day to day" stuff as it's deemed to give a competitive advantage, all communication has to go through the DfT. I assume this will have been the same for this franchise too.

Correct.

It would give ATW a hugely unfair advantage over the other three bidders if their existing management team were working on the bid. As difficult as it might be to explain to the average passenger on the platform (or dare I say it via twitter) it makes perfect sense.

 

[Dai Corner]

Correct.

It would give ATW a hugely unfair advantage over the other three bidders if their existing management team were working on the bid. As difficult as it might be to explain to the average passenger on the platform (or dare I say it via twitter) it makes perfect sense.

I can see the reason for doing it this way from the competition point if view, but looking at the wider picture the more a bid team know about current operations the more likely they are to be able to put in an optimum bid.

As a result the system is likely to lead to a sub-optimal bid winning which is then set in stone for the duration of the franchise?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I must admit I don't see why it shouldn't be on the basis of the incumbent being able to bid with full knowledge with the presumption that the others are challenging to make it better, and if they can't it's best to leave the incumbent in place.

Does EU or UK law preclude that? As to me it is likely to have a better outcome and prevent change for change's sake.

 

[HH]

I must admit I don't see why it shouldn't be on the basis of the incumbent being able to bid with full knowledge with the presumption that the others are challenging to make it better, and if they can't it's best to leave the incumbent in place.

Does EU or UK law preclude that? As to me it is likely to have a better outcome and prevent change for change's sake.

It wouldn't be an equal competition, so it would undoubtedly be challenged. In any case it wouldn't work - if the position has changed such that the current position is better than the bids then the incumbent is likely to want to chuck the towel in.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I can see the reason for doing it this way from the competition point if view, but looking at the wider picture the more a bid team know about current operations the more likely they are to be able to put in an optimum bid.

As a result the system is likely to lead to a sub-optimal bid winning which is then set in stone for the duration of the franchise?

Given that its Transport for Wales and 3 foreign bidders left its all going to be the blind leading the blind and crayons on the map anyway.