EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[fowler9]

We (in Netherlands) see a country that does not really know what to do next.

We (In the UK) see a country that doesn't really know what to do next (Or at least some of us do and we never wanted to be in this situation in the first place).

 

[AM9]

BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42249854

The government has not carried out any impact assessments of leaving the EU on the UK economy, Brexit Secretary David Davis has told MPs.
Mr Davis said the usefulness of such assessments would be "near zero" because of the scale of change Brexit is likely to cause.
He said the government had produced a "sectoral analysis" of different industries but not a "forecast" of what would happen when the UK leaves the EU.

and

When Mr Benn suggested this was "strange", the minister said formal assessments were not needed to know that "regulatory hurdles" would have an impact, describing Brexit as a "paradigm change" of similar impact to the financial crash, which could not be predicted.

and

Third, Mr Davis probably didn't help his own reputation by telling the committee he had been handed two chapters of the 850 pages of analysis but hadn't read them. At times Mr Davis even chided the committee over the time they were taking.

and

Third, Mr Davis probably didn't help his own reputation by telling the committee he had been handed two chapters of the 850 pages of analysis but hadn't read them. At times Mr Davis even chided the committee over the time they were taking.

sigh

The Benn-Davis interchange very much reminded me of the Monty Python cheese shop sketch, - see here:

- in fact the whole government handling of such a serious issue is looking like a source of comedic ridicule for years to come. It may then be the only thing to laugh about!

 

[DarloRich]

In a further Kafkaesque moment it turns out that not only is there no Brexit impact assessment but the government hasn't even had a chat about what the final Brexit landscape should look like!

isnt hindsight wonderful!! Anyway, we are where we are now and just have to get on with it.

aye - if only some one knew what it was or how to start getting on with it!

 

[Moonshot]

In a further Kafkaesque moment it turns out that not only is there no Brexit impact assessment but the government hasn't even had a chat about what the final Brexit landscape should look like!



aye - if only some one knew what it was or how to start getting on with it!

Clearly we need to avoid a cliff edge in March 2019, but in the event of a no deal, thats what might happen. Seems to me that the powers that be are making attempts to get us in a decent position by then, but keep coming up against hurdles like the Irish Border issue. Interstingly , I note that there is provision for the UK to withdraw its resignation notice.

 

[nlogax]

Interstingly , I note that there is provision for the UK to withdraw its resignation notice.

Can't see the government backing out now. They won't change their mind about leaving the customs union or single market, they won't entertain being reminded that the referendum was advisory, they won't go against the 2% margin of the leave vote. Their determination to go for a car crash in spite of all warnings (from BOTH sides) is resolute.

 

[Moonshot]

Can't see the government backing out now. They won't change their mind about leaving the customs union or single market, they won't entertain being reminded that the referendum was advisory, they won't go against the 2% margin of the leave vote. Their determination to go for a car crash in spite of all warnings (from BOTH sides) is resolute.

Indeed.....unless an unforeseen event happens between now and March 2019. Id be interested to see what peoples views are on what an unforeseen event would be that stops the Brexit process in its tracks and returns us to the status quo.

 

[AM9]

Can't see this government backing out now. ...

There's a way, (note the bold italics).
The underlying fact is that the Conservatives like to be seen as the party for business and money. When it looks like the pain to their friends will be too much, they will pull back from political suicide and (try to) make it look like a good idea.

 

[AM9]

Indeed.....unless an unforeseen event happens between now and March 2019. Id be interested to see what peoples views are on what an unforeseen event would be that stops the Brexit process in its tracks and returns us to the status quo.

Defeat in a no-confidence motion and imminence of a Corbyn-led election victory.

 

[furnessvale]

Defeat in a no-confidence motion and imminence of a Corbyn-led election victory.

Would that be the nice Mr Corbyn who believes in Brexit?

 

[Howardh]

If we did end up walking out with no deal - and there is a general agreement that as it stands, that means no EU-bound flights/ferries/trains....(surely THAT won't happen - but look at our negotiating team of clowns...) then no deal could be so bad for the UK that within a couple of years we're begging and screaming to be let back in - on their expensive terms. Sure there will still be a few hard-case Brexiters left (discounting those running off to their tax-havens) but that number will diminish by the day as reality hits.

So it's a paradox - a soft Brexit could mean we're OK and never return, but a Bad Brexit and with a bit of patience we could be back before, what, 2026??

 

[trash80]

Brexit is this generation's Suez crisis and it will be just as much, if not more, of a national humiliation.

 

[Tetchytyke]

When it looks like the pain to their friends will be too much, they will pull back from political suicide and (try to) make it look like a good idea.

The hyper-rich Tory backers won't be feeling any pain, they'll be filling their boots in the carnage and chaos. Just as they did in 2007. Just as the 2007 "credit crunch" recession was a business opportunity they enthusastically took- Britain's wealthiest 1000 people doubled their net worth in the seven years 2007-2015- then Car Crash Brexit will be no different.

Us plebs will feel pain, and lots and lots of it, but the rich will get richer on the back of it. Car Crash Brexit will happen because Car Crash Brexit is a business opportunity.

 

[EM2]

Would that be the nice Mr Corbyn who believes in Brexit?

But who also believes in free movement, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

 

[Senex]

Can't see the government backing out now. They won't change their mind about leaving the customs union or single market, they won't entertain being reminded that the referendum was advisory, they won't go against the 2% margin of the leave vote. Their determination to go for a car crash in spite of all warnings (from BOTH sides) is resolute.

As long as May sees it as far more important to keep her noisy right-wing Brexiteers happy, whatever harm that might do to the country whose benefit she is entrusted with looking after, then the car-crash is inevitable—especially as there is no clear alternative policy on offer from queenie's loyal opposition. Why is May so in thrall to her old-fashioned right-wing Little Englanders when (from what we have been told — it's hard to know what her own principles are, or if she has any at all) her own views may well be rather different?

 

[pemma]

Defeat in a no-confidence motion and imminence of a Corbyn-led election victory.

Would that be the nice Mr Corbyn who believes in Brexit?

Personally I think if we have another election we'll have another hung parliament even if the biggest party changes. The only parties likely to have enough seats to prop up another party are likely to be the DUP and Lib Dems. The DUP won't work with Labour and the Lib Dems have made it clear that they'd work with Labour but not Corbyn led Labour. I actually think there's more chance of Keir Starmer walking in to 10 Downing St following another election than Corbyn - he's not centralist to annoy the 'hard left' at Labour but also not too left wing for the Lib Dems to work with.

 

[furnessvale]

But who also believes in free movement, the Single Market and the Customs Union.

Just add ECJ to the list and you have a full house of EU membership!
So he doesn't believe in Brexit then.

 

[pemma]

Just add ECJ to the list and you have a full house of EU membership!
So he doesn't believe in Brexit then.

The parts Corbyn believes in all have caveats attached. If Corbyn was negotiating with the EU instead of David Davies the overall outcome might be different but Corbyn wouldn't get there any quicker.

 

[EM2]

Just add ECJ to the list and you have a full house of EU membership!
So he doesn't believe in Brexit then.

But you just said that he did? Are you saying that your post was ill-researched?

 

[EM2]

A Tory politician co-drafted the European Convention on Human Rights (Maxwell-Fyfe).
A Tory politician co-created the Single Market (Cockfield).
UK has entirely red-tape-free, tariff-free access to the largest market on the planet. A free trade ideal. Any economic liberal should be ecstatic with this.
And the UK is throwing it all away.

I despair. I really do.

 

[furnessvale]

But you just said that he did? Are you saying that your post was ill-researched?

Perhaps I should have added a question mark for the pedantic.

He has a track record of being anti EU. Now YOU tell me he believes in accepting the major planks of EU membership. Maybe he will say anything to get power (such as ending student loans and writing off all student debt, a cool unfunded gbp100bn to you and me).

 

[furnessvale]

A Tory politician co-drafted the European Convention on Human Rights (Maxwell-Fyfe).
A Tory politician co-created the Single Market (Cockfield).
UK has entirely red-tape-free, tariff-free access to the largest market on the planet. A free trade ideal. Any economic liberal should be ecstatic with this.
And the UK is throwing it all away.

I despair. I really do.

Only available if you allow your country to be absorbed into the European project which will inexorably lead to a United States of Europe.

No thanks, I will go for trade with the other 90% of the world as an independent sovereign country.

 

[EM2]

He has a track record of being anti EU. Now YOU tell me he believes in accepting the major planks of EU membership. Maybe he will say anything to get power (such as ending student loans and writing off all student debt, a cool unfunded gbp100bn to you and me).

Is it so different to Theresa May, who has always been pro-EU, voted Remain, and now she has the key to No.10, is intent on driving the country over a cliff?

 

[EM2]

Only available if you allow your country to be absorbed into the European project which will inexorably lead to a United States of Europe.

No thanks, I will go for trade with the other 90% of the world as an independent sovereign country.

Over which we had a veto.

 

[furnessvale]

Over which we had a veto.

Yes, which we would increasingly have had to use.
When you are the only club member consistently vetoing, you have to ask what is the point of membership.
Better we leave now and save everybody the pain.

 

[furnessvale]

Is it so different to Theresa May, who has always been pro-EU, voted Remain, and now she has the key to No.10, is intent on driving the country over a cliff?

Couldn't agree more. Put a remainer in charge and that's what you get.
One would almost think she didn't want Brexit to succeed.

 

[EM2]

Yes, which we would increasingly have had to use.
When you are the only club member consistently vetoing, you have to ask what is the point of membership.
Better we leave now and save everybody the pain.

In fact, we would never have had to use it:

"It is recognised that the United Kingdom, in the light of the specific situation it has under the Treaties, is not committed to further political integration into the European Union. The substance of this will be incorporated into the Treaties at the time of their next revision in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Treaties and the respective constitutional requirements of the Member States, so as to make it clear that the references to ever closer union do not apply to the United Kingdom."

 

[furnessvale]

In fact, we would never have had to use it:

Same difference really. A "United" States of Europe of 27 countries + the UK.
All the energies of the 27 going into decisions to benefit the USE.
And the UKs role in all this?............... keeping paying in the money and keeping our borders open for all those lovely EU exports.

 

[DerekC]

The Theresa May track record of incompetence is now so total that it's hard to see where she can go next. The only proper solution is for her to resign and call an election in which one of the parties offers to end our Brexit madness by offering a second referendum, the result of which should no longer be in doubt. Unfortunately it won't happen because the majority of Conservative MPs are too worried about keeping their seats - despite the fact that no sane person should ever vote Conservative again.

 

[EM2]

furnessvale so what do you actually want?
To trade solely under WTO rules?
Can you name any other country that does this, especially one with an economy as big as the UK?

 

[furnessvale]

furnessvale so what do you actually want?
To trade solely under WTO rules?
Can you name any other country that does this, especially one with an economy as big as the UK?

No. I want the UK to negotiate trade agreements with like minded countries, including the EU, when its mindset changes from punishing the UK for having the temerity to leave the club.

Initially it will be difficult because the club rules forbid us from signing new agreements while still a member, and of course we have always played by the rules, much to our disadvantage. I would like to believe that, behind the scenes, we are talking to like minded countries, but given the track record of our remainer PM, I have my doubts.