Yes it’s amazing how long the Euro tunnel has been going and it’s took this long to expand. Eurostar have started going more places in France so they seem to be expanding. In terms of the Amsterdam route Antwerp would be the next logical step and Airport if they can get the infustructure in the stations sorted in the future. Also a direct express too. I imagine the Amsterdam route will be a success. I went there on holiday recently and also went to Cologne and must admit I prefer Germany. I will probably stick to using Euro star for Paris and Brussels.
A question I’ve never asked yet is would say Switzerland be possible with the Paris section of the line? I know it’s only 3 hours from Paris. Barcelona could be another one if people we’re willing to spend say 8 hours on a train?
There was a thread on this about a year ago, possibly even this thread.
Eurostar only works in high volume flows. Also it will only work where that flow can compete door to door with air, or at least be close enough to air that people will be willing to trade journey time for more comfort / convenience. It is very unlikely that Eurostar will win on price, particularly for longer flows. Realistically, around 6 hours from London is going to be the limit for a regular service (as opposed to say the ski trains which only run at weekends for a very specific, high flow, high value market).
The issue is that a Eurostar will need to fill 600-700 seats to be viable. An A319 needs to fill about 130, and can therefore offer a much higher frequency (which is more attractive to passengers) for the same capacity.
As always, a good indicator of international market size is available by looking at Civil Aviation Authority data for air passenger numbers. Potential markets From London, with estimated journey times if calling at only the most major stations en route:
Amsterdam (under 4 hours non stop)
Frankfurt (5hrs) via Cologne (4hrs)
Geneva (5hrs)
Zurich (6hrs) via Basle (5hrs)
Marseille (6hrs) via Lyon (4 1/2h) (already done by Eurostar summer weekends only)
Bordeaux (4 1/2hrs)
Barcelona, Munich, Berlin, Nice, Hamburg, Stuttgart are all just too far to make a realistic rail market from London with current arrangements. Now, if UK joined Schengen and was border free, I think it quite likely that a London - Barcelona or London- Nice service that could pick up in Lille, Paris, Lyon would be viable. Ditto London-Münich calling at Brussels, Cologne, Frankfurt & Stuttgart or Nuremburg. But this isn't going to happen any time soon, unfortunately.
As it stands, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that all London - Brussels services will eventually be extended to either Amsterdam, or Frankfurt via Cologne. A twice daily London - Geneva service might also hold water, although finding paths on the LGV-PSE will be an issue. Finally a London-Bordeaux summer weekend service would also probably be a goer now that the LGV-SEA is open, although onward travel would be an issue here.
