He's already proposed a former Fox News presenter as the new UN ambassador, IIRC.
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Donald Trump and the aftermath of his presidency
- Thread starter backontrack
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This could be a long one...
There are three parties (not political) involved here: congressional Democrats, congressional Republicans, and the President. Two of them already agreed a continuing resolution that didn't include Border Wall funding. It did, crucially, include $1B or so for border security. The president would have signed it if not for Fox and Friends, Ann Coulter, etc. telling him that he was going soft.
So, we have a President on 34% approval rating shutting down the government for something that neither Congressional party want. The original CR is still on the table for him to sign - well, it would need to have the house amendments removed as there's no way it will get 60 votes in the current form (and it's doubtful it would even get 50 if they invoke the nuclear option).
What's on everyone's mind is that the midterm elections represented a 14-15% swing away from the Republican party to the Democrats, the 2020 election cycle starts in earnest in a month or two, and 56% of potential voters blame Trump for the shutdown.
This is Trump's shutdown, and the longer it drags on the more it hurts him.
The Dems have no reason to blink, and more and more congressional GOP members are starting to question if loyalty to Trump is helping or hindering their future electability. There's already talk of a challenge for the GOP nomination for 2020 - it's extremely rare for an incumbent president to face a serious internal challenge of they're seeking a second term.
If the shutdown drags on past the first week of January, if the markets continue to fall (despite the rebound yesterday they're still down sharply for the year), or if Mueller submits his report in January/February I expect a schism in the GOP between the Trumpists and the traditionalists.
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43 has now threatened to completely close the southern border unless he gets his border money:
I'm willing to bet that he hasn't the foggiest idea how to actually do this, and the massive impact that it would have on the US economy if he did.
The Guardian: Trump threatens to shut border 'entirely' unless Democrats fund wall.
I'm willing to bet that he hasn't the foggiest idea how to actually do this, and the massive impact that it would have on the US economy if he did.
I think he knows what he is doing - maybe fewer goods and fewer cheap labourers available but more money stays in the US. Limited movement by sea/air, especially for goods, would still be possible.
Busaholic
Veteran Member
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Well, there's a first time for everything
With respect, I don't think you appreciate how much crosses the US/Mexico border on a daily basis. Just one crossing (Brownsville) handles over a quarter of a million passenger vehicles, over 20,000 trucks and almost 9,000 rail cars per month.
And that's just one of the 48 crossing points. Close the southern border? Think Operation Stack times one hundred.
nlogax
Established Member
April 1st is still quite some way off.
Has he actually taken action or just threatened again?
I know he's been fuming about it for ages, I wasn't sure if he had actually done anything.
It's bonkers though: he thinks (well, Fox News tells him that he thinks) there's a "problem" with too many economic migrants coming up to the US from Central America, so let's try and cripple the economies of those countries. Countries whose economies are only in the state that they are because of American meddling in their internal politics in the 1970s and 80s. (Propping up vicious dictatorships to stop the spread of communism and all that).
Fox News (friend of Donald Trump) are now calling it now the SchumerShutdown. As if Schumer is the president! The brexit and Trump will be the issues next year.
Donald Trump pulling out of Syria. No talk with the UK, France, Netherlands or any other country. Turkey, Syria, Kurds, IS and what not more will battle for years to come. The Kurds now are seeking protection from Assad against Turkey!
Donald Trump pulling out of Syria. No talk with the UK, France, Netherlands or any other country. Turkey, Syria, Kurds, IS and what not more will battle for years to come. The Kurds now are seeking protection from Assad against Turkey!
Furloughed staff do not get paid - that's what being furloughed means.
A Challenge
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Does anyone know if the people who are working anyway (essential jobs) will get paid?
Yes, they will get paid but not until the first pay period after the shutdown ends (they're currently working for free). As an aside, Congress can vote to restore missing pay for furloughed workers, but there's no obligation to do so.
... even then, the two houses have to agree on a bill. That may be very awkward even before Mr Trump comes into play. Apparently the Senate will not consider any Democrat bills to end the shutdown.
Bear in mind that if both Houses of Congress cannot agree (as in ^Congress^ and ^The Senate^), then the President and actions are a moot point. The President can only sign off once both Houses have agreed on something.
Bear in mind that if both Houses of Congress cannot agree (as in ^Congress^ and ^The Senate^), then the President and actions are a moot point. The President can only sign off once both Houses have agreed on something.
Which means he now 100% owns the shutdown.
A Challenge
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But in the eyes of the American people who voted for him, and who believe he did no wrong?
Don't forget, a minority of the American people voted for him. His current approval rating is 39% (against an average 56% in their second December) - I dare say it won't be improved by this.
See what happens with his ratings when these people don't get any tax refunds paid to them due to the shutdown. It's also estimated that many think they will get a massive refund due to trump's tax cuts but are going to end up owing more.
nlogax
Established Member
Think we already know how this bit will play out. In spite of everything, Trump will blame IRS refund delays on the Democrats lack of willingness to play ball with him on wall-related matters.
That'll be an interesting situation for those affected which will include a large swathe of Trump voters.
Going to be Intresting to see how they spin it.
RailWonderer
Established Member
The media is very deceptive on both sides of the Atlantic on creating this idea Trump is perceived as being unpopular when in Fact the Rasmussen polls show his approval at near 35%, best case scenario for a president after all the grief the media give him, and many show up at his rallies, there is a major effort to denigrate his anti establishment rhetoric in the establishment legacy media, bar for Fox.
As for the wall, it is purely strategic so if the Dems win in this war over govt shutdown, Trump fails on a major campaign promise on wall funding and doesn't get reelected. They have already pledged $12bn for foreign aid and zero for a wall, despite Dems promising it in '06 and '13. But it shows that this, plus their continuous impeachment diatribe, shows they are weak and cannot appeal to ordinary Americans. They are doubling down on a losing strategy and this why Trump will be re elected.