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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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pt_mad

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Quite, all this talk of extra coaches, electrification, etc. for the Chiltern line would help, but not by very much.

Currently there's 3tph London to Birmingham on the WCML, let's assume that they have 1,640 seats (so a 9 coach 390 and 2*11 coach 390). To provide a 50% increase in seats (820 seats) by providing extra coaches would require about 12 extra coaches with 70 seats in each on the Birmingham services.

However what do you then do to provide the extra capacity for Manchester? The simple way is to remove trains from Birmingham on the WCML and divert then to Manchester, however that would then require even more coaches being added to Chiltern services. Let's say another 10, so that's a total of 22 extra coaches on Chiltern services. Could you even for in that many extra coaches to Chiltern services?

However Coventry has gone from 3tph to 2tph, which is something that those opposed to HS2 would say wasn't acceptable.

Whether it's a strategy for Chiltern to lengthen their loco hauled Silver Sets by adding coaches later I dont know? It's not a bad idea. Would it possible to have 7 car sets?

Coventry might remain to be seen. The service spec is only the minimum isn't it? And what if LNR end up getting the chance to use the fast line south of Rugby once HS2 opens? There wouldn't be too much of a loss imo.
 
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Clip

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Whether it's a strategy for Chiltern to lengthen their loco hauled Silver Sets by adding coaches later I dont know? It's not a bad idea. Would it possible to have 7 car sets?

Not really adding much capacity by doing this are you compared to brand new trains.
 

pt_mad

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0730 does New St to Euston in 73 minutes, 0750 which is a 221 does it in 83. 0810 which is a Pendo does it in 83 minutes.
That looks very impressive on the face of it. Why not more with this journey time? Or are journeys along that route not that time sensitive?
 
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The Planner

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That looks very impressive on the face of it. Why not more with this journey tine? Or are journeys along that route not that time sensitive?
How do you deal with the other stops that train doesn't pick up? The 0741 from International mops up those the 0730 doesn't take and to do it that quick for the rest of the day means someone loses out.
 

Dr Hoo

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That looks very impressive on the face of it. Why not more with this journey time? Or are journeys along that route not that time sensitive?
Because the 0730 is the only non-stop train. There is a 'shadowing' 0741 from Birmingham International that picks up what would otherwise be 'standard' intermediate calls. These trains get to Euston before the full intensity of typical hourly patterns from further north has built up.
There is no capacity for regular 'duplication' of fast services to and from Birmingham. More non-stop services might be possible but only at the expense of significantly fewer calls at Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Milton Keynes and Watford Junction. These form part of the franchise specification.
 

Grumpy

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Or maybe "the person of whom we speak" hopes £100bn for the NHS means he'll get a pay increase? :D
Probably deserves one. That we are paying train drivers 2-3 times more than doctors shows how barmy the railway industry is.
 

AndrewE

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One thing that has proven very successful in terms of additional capacity for Scotland where people are more price than time sensitive is VTWC's masterstroke of combining Euston-Wolves with Brum-Scotland. This is quite possibly the best decision they have made in recent years, as it has opened extra journey opportunities and added capacity to near enough nobody's disadvantage ...
I could reply "Oh, No it's not!" or "That's what you think!!
Those trains are often f&s northbound from Crewe as they are the only long distance trains on the WCML that call at Crewe (not counting the Liverpools and Manchesters, which you can't use to get to Warrington or anywhere further north.) I can see the advantages from rolling stock utilisation and better services for Coventry and the airport across Brum, but what is the point of overloading (with London passengers) a service that only runs to Glasgow alternate hours and which with the Edinburghs provides the other service to make it hourly northbound?
I think I know the answer, which is in your comment: it gives a very nice (slower and therefore cheaper) service for London passengers! Sod the people from Shrewsbury and Stoke...
p.s. just spotted that this is post no. 2,500!
 

Ianno87

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How do you deal with the other stops that train doesn't pick up? The 0741 from International mops up those the 0730 doesn't take and to do it that quick for the rest of the day means someone loses out.

Because the 0730 is the only non-stop train. There is a 'shadowing' 0741 from Birmingham International that picks up what would otherwise be 'standard' intermediate calls. These trains get to Euston before the full intensity of typical hourly patterns from further north has built up.
There is no capacity for regular 'duplication' of fast services to and from Birmingham. More non-stop services might be possible but only at the expense of significantly fewer calls at Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Milton Keynes and Watford Junction. These form part of the franchise specification.

Doing such 'bespoke' journeys is easier in the morning peak, as trains are generally on their first runs in from the depot.

Much, much harder later in the day once the standard pattern has got going, that you'd need to break and then resume.
 

The Ham

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Whether it's a strategy for Chiltern to lengthen their loco hauled Silver Sets by adding coaches later I dont know? It's not a bad idea. Would it possible to have 7 car sets?

Coventry might remain to be seen. The service spec is only the minimum isn't it? And what if LNR end up getting the chance to use the fast line south of Rugby once HS2 opens? There wouldn't be too much of a loss imo.

I'm not suggesting that Chiltern couldn't have improvements, rather the level of improvements required to even serve Birmingham and Manchester (and the consequences of that) without HS2 probably wouldn't be possible and even if it were it wouldn't be that palatable for some.
 

Bletchleyite

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I could reply "Oh, No it's not!" or "That's what you think!!
Those trains are often f&s northbound from Crewe as they are the only long distance trains on the WCML that call at Crewe (not counting the Liverpools and Manchesters, which you can't use to get to Warrington or anywhere further north.) I can see the advantages from rolling stock utilisation and better services for Coventry and the airport across Brum, but what is the point of overloading (with London passengers) a service that only runs to Glasgow alternate hours and which with the Edinburghs provides the other service to make it hourly northbound?
I think I know the answer, which is in your comment: it gives a very nice (slower and therefore cheaper) service for London passengers! Sod the people from Shrewsbury and Stoke...

They are far less overcrowded (and I use them a lot) than they were in the days of it being a 5-car Voyager starting at Brum on which there were basically no Advances. Those "ex XC" services were so bad I used to avoid them by going via Manchester and using TPE - and given the overcrowding record of that TOC that is really saying something.

If they're getting too busy, that's an issue of them selling too many Advances, LNR-stylee.

The masterstroke of the change was that by removing 1tph from Wolves to Brum (which hardly anybody used) they were able to rejig the fleet to allow longer trains on a route that direly needed them. That they could flog a few more Advances was a side benefit.
 
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Ianno87

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They are far less overcrowded (and I use them a lot) than they were in the days of it being a 5-car Voyager starting at Brum on which there were basically no Advances. Those "ex XC" services were so bad I used to avoid them by going via Manchester and using TPE - and given the overcrowding record of that TOC that is really saying something.

If they're getting too busy, that's an issue of them selling too many Advances, LNR-stylee.

A large part of the reason for the join-up in the first place was to:

-Free up a Pendolino otherwise carting fresh air between Brum and Wolves
-Enable swapping of capacity north and south of Brum so 5 car Voyagers on some quiet Euston-Brum services to free up Pendolinos to cover a busier Brum-Scotland working.

Quite well thought through, all in all.
 

Bletchleyite

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A large part of the reason for the join-up in the first place was to:

-Free up a Pendolino otherwise carting fresh air between Brum and Wolves
-Enable swapping of capacity north and south of Brum so 5 car Voyagers on some quiet Euston-Brum services to free up Pendolinos to cover a busier Brum-Scotland working.

Quite well thought through, all in all.

I stand by my view that it is quite possibly the best decision they ever made.
 

Ianno87

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I stand by my view that it is quite possibly the best decision they ever made.

And also why taking Brum-Scotland off XC was ultimately a good idea (as much as people wibble on about not being able to get a direct train from Penrith to Tiverton Parkway)
 

AndrewE

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They are far less overcrowded (and I use them a lot) than they were in the days of it being a 5-car Voyager starting at Brum.
Well they would be wouldn't they? 11 coaches instead of 5, and whoever thought that would work (given that they replaced loco-hauled trains from Brum and through trains fom Bristol) should be demoted to a goods guard.

A large part of the reason for the join-up in the first place was to:
-Free up a Pendolino otherwise carting fresh air between Brum and Wolves
-Enable swapping of capacity north and south of Brum so 5 car Voyagers on some quiet Euston-Brum services to free up Pendolinos to cover a busier Brum-Scotland working.
Quite well thought through, all in all.
That's all as may be, but it doesn't excuse selling cheap tickets from London to Scotland on them when there isn't enough capacity for the passengers from the west midlands and further north.
 

Neen Sollars

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Probably deserves one. That we are paying train drivers 2-3 times more than doctors shows how barmy the railway industry is.
Not sure that train drivers earn three times more than doctors? Stats anyone? If true it shows how powerful the rail unions are.
 
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Ianno87

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Well they would be wouldn't they? 11 coaches instead of 5, and whoever thought that would work (given that they replaced loco-hauled trains from Brum and through trains fom Bristol) should be demoted to a goods guard.

That's all as may be, but it doesn't excuse selling cheap tickets from London to Scotland on them when there isn't enough capacity for the passengers from the west midlands and further north.

Looking at Advances for Euston-Carlisle via Coventry for 28th March, 'cheap' fares seem to be available for everything between 0643 and 1443 from Euston, except the 1143 and 1243.

So basically no cheap Advances from Euston after 1615 from New St, so looks like they're price managing demand quite well to keep space free for peak Birmingham commuters.
 

AndrewE

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So basically no cheap Advances from Euston after 1615 from New St, so looks like they're price managing demand quite well to keep space free for peak Birmingham commuters.
What have Birmingham commuters got to do with it? On their season tickets they crowd out every limited-stop train to Wolves anyway. I am talking about the lack of capacity for long-distance passengers from the west midlands and Crewe to all stations north thereof for a lot of the day
It looks (pace Bletchleyite and the Planner) as though some things might get better from May though. Just not this, I suspect.
 

Bletchleyite

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That's all as may be, but it doesn't excuse selling cheap tickets from London to Scotland on them when there isn't enough capacity for the passengers from the west midlands and further north.

I use them quite a lot and I don't recall having to stand since the single Voyagers went. I guess there must be a few problem trains.
 

The Ham

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Not sure that train drivers earn three times more than doctors? Stats anyone? If true it shows how powerful the rail unions are.

From 2012

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/he...re-not-paid-six-figure-sums-figures-show.html

How doctors salaries compare to other public sector workers

GPs - £103,000 a year for partners and £81,158 for GPs

Hospital consultants - £74,504 to £100,446 a year

Trainee doctors - £23,533 a year rising to £65,392 a year.

Tube driver - £45,000 to £46,000 a year.

Teachers - Up to £41,500 a year

Police constable - £21,000 to £36,500 a year

Average primary school headteacher (local authority controlled) - £51,800

Averaeg secondary school headteacher (local authority controlled) - £60,900

Sources: British Medical Association, Police Federation of England and Wales, Transport for London, Department for Education
 

pt_mad

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Perhaps they should have published an economic report: the economic benefit of HS2 and possible service expansion for the next 50 years vs the existing WCML VHF timetable for the next 50 years. And point out in which year freight paths would be totally taken up on the WCML and freight growth would have to stop.

Have they published any economic reports like that?
 
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6Gman

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It is still not worth the cost especially when there are other parts of the country are in desperate need of rail investment. The environmental impact is far to great. The money would be better spent on upgrading existing routes as well as re opening old ones.

That's a valid opinion to express. I was merely correcting your factual error.
 

The Ham

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It is still not worth the cost especially when there are other parts of the country are in desperate need of rail investment. The environmental impact is far to great. The money would be better spent on upgrading existing routes as well as re opening old ones.

Could we do both?

Has HS2 resulted in less money being spent on the existing network?

Could HS2 not make a better business case for reopenings, in that there could be paths on ECML and the WCML for services to connect with reopenings?

For example what is likely to lead to more traffic for the Camp Hill Line, having a major HS2 station near one end or not?

Show me that HS2 is drawing money away from the existing network and I will listen. However given the £4bn spent on enhancements to the existing network last year you will need to go a long way to prove that.

HS2 is a good scape goat for the lack of progress on people's pet project. It's due to HS2 that the Snowdon Mountain Railway hasn't been upgraded to 125mph running!
 

DynamicSpirit

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It is still not worth the cost especially when there are other parts of the country are in desperate need of rail investment. The environmental impact is far to great. The money would be better spent on upgrading existing routes as well as re opening old ones.

Would it? That's a claim that those against HS2 keep making without any analysis to justify it. So.... Let's suppose that (hypothetically) it became possible to scrap HS2 and spend that £55bn on upgrading existing routes and re-opening old ones. Could you get better value?

Let's do a rough estimate. HS2 will put 18 tph between London and Birmingham. I make that about 300 trains per day, probably carrying something like 500 passengers each on average for about 100 miles. So that's about 15 million passenger miles each way per day. And probably something like a similar number North of Birmingham (2 routes each with maybe about 10tph. I'm sure someone with a better idea of the proposed outline frequencies could make a better estimate, but that suggests the ballpark is 30 million passenger miles/day in each direction. 60 million total. Or to put it another way, each £1000 that you spend in construction costs etc. gives you one passenger mile/day every day, which seems pretty good value to me.

Could you devise a way to spend that 55 billion on upgrades and new lines in a way that would generate about 60 million new passenger miles/day? That seems a bit implausible to me, but if anyone can come up with some reasonable estimates to show how it might be done...
 
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PR1Berske

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But we don't claim "spend the money to get the same results". We claim "spend the money elsewhere "
 

squizzler

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Could we do both?

Has HS2 resulted in less money being spent on the existing network?

Could HS2 not make a better business case for reopenings, in that there could be paths on ECML and the WCML for services to connect with reopenings?

For example what is likely to lead to more traffic for the Camp Hill Line, having a major HS2 station near one end or not?

Show me that HS2 is drawing money away from the existing network and I will listen. However given the £4bn spent on enhancements to the existing network last year you will need to go a long way to prove that.

HS2 is a good scape goat for the lack of progress on people's pet project. It's due to HS2 that the Snowdon Mountain Railway hasn't been upgraded to 125mph running!

Apparently before the M1 motorway was built the main objections were not from the environmentalists, as that had not been invented yet. It was the motoring community who were concerned that it was to the detriment of their rights to use regular roads (I think, other transport historians on this forum might fill in details). Their concerns were unfounded.

HS2 Will be a sturdy new trunk which will invigorate the branches, I have no doubt.
 
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Would it? That's a claim that those against HS2 keep making without any analysis to justify it. So.... Let's suppose that (hypothetically) it became possible to scrap HS2 and spend that £55bn on upgrading existing routes and re-opening old ones. Could you get better value?

Let's do a rough estimate. HS2 will put 18 tph between London and Birmingham. I make that about 300 trains per day, probably carrying something like 500 passengers each on average for about 100 miles. So that's about 15 million passenger miles each way per day. And probably something like a similar number North of Birmingham (2 routes each with maybe about 10tph. I'm sure someone with a better idea of the proposed outline frequencies could make a better estimate, but that suggests the ballpark is 30 million passenger miles/day in each direction. 60 million total. Or to put it another way, each £1000 that you spend in construction costs etc. gives you one passenger mile/day every day, which seems pretty good value to me.

Could you devise a way to spend that 55 billion on upgrades and new lines in a way that would generate about 60 million new passenger miles/day? That seems a bit implausible to me, but if anyone can come up with some reasonable estimates to show how it might be done...
At no point did I ever say “spend the money elsewhere to achieve the same results”. I said spend the money on something else to ahcube differsnt results. Why does passenger miles matter when many haven’t got a rail connection at all?
 

The Ham

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But we don't claim "spend the money to get the same results". We claim "spend the money elsewhere "

What is often claimed is that we need investment in the existing network, has spending on HS2 reduced spending by NR on enhancements?

If it has then people would be more willing to listen, the "problem" is that there's been a continued spend elsewhere.

In fact since HS2 has been announced NPR had been announced, which would bring massive benefits across the North (not least by removing TPE services with limited stopping patterns from the existing lines allowing more local services to be run).

Yes there's a need for more investment in rail, however saying that getting rid of HS2 would help with that is currently a bit of a stretch given the large amounts of other rail investment which is also happening.

As you have admitted, rail growth is higher than that assumed under the business case for HS2. As such there needs to be something comparable to HS2 in terms of capacity and but just money for rail for the sake of it.

Given no one accepted the invitation to increase capacity by 50%, can anyone come up with something that increases capacity by 25%? Anyone? Or am I yet again going to be met with no responses, like is always the case when I ask for the alternatives for HS2?

Anyone at all? I don't mind who.

[Awaits the vista of tumble weeds which normally follows such a request].
 

LNW-GW Joint

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A large part of the reason for the join-up in the first place was to:
-Free up a Pendolino otherwise carting fresh air between Brum and Wolves
-Enable swapping of capacity north and south of Brum so 5 car Voyagers on some quiet Euston-Brum services to free up Pendolinos to cover a busier Brum-Scotland working.
Quite well thought through, all in all.

Plus diverting some through passengers from the direct Preston/Glasgow to the via Brum train, thus relieving what in my view is the most crowded current service on the WCML.
 

gallafent

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(re adding another coach to the Chiltern mk3 loco-hauled sets)

Not really adding much capacity by doing this are you compared to brand new trains.

Not really spending much money by doing this are you compared to brand new trains. ;)
 

Clip

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(re adding another coach to the Chiltern mk3 loco-hauled sets)



Not really spending much money by doing this are you compared to brand new trains. ;)

apart from possible platform lengthening and signal realignment along with the same for any point works associated with some stations - soon the costs add up quite high for an extra 150 seats per hour
 
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