EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[krus_aragon]

Do you really want proportional representation? And have the major parties rely on fringe groups with their own agendas to push through votes - example: despite only having list MPs, the Tree Huggers have a disproportionate leverage on policy at Holyrood

As I said, let's leave that topic for another thread. (Is there an existing one, or would you care to create one?)

 

[Howardh]

Judging by the news, if we get an extension then there could be indicitive votes to start to water down Brexit. That's probably a threat to get Day's rotten deal through at the third time pf pleading. Will the ERG finally relent?

 

[Esker-pades]

Judging by the news, if we get an extension then there could be indicitive votes to start to water down Brexit. That's probably a threat to get Day's rotten deal through at the third time pf pleading. Will the ERG finally relent?

I hope they don't. Currently, they are our [people who wish to remain] best bet at stopping Brexit altogether.

 

[jellybaby]

would you vote for a 53% income tax+NI

Yes and I'm a higher rate tax payer so it would cost me. Great public services cost money to provide.

 

[bramling]

Judging by the news, if we get an extension then there could be indicitive votes to start to water down Brexit. That's probably a threat to get Day's rotten deal through at the third time pf pleading. Will the ERG finally relent?

I suspect more depends on what the DUP decide.

And of course ultimately with Westminster having flushed themselves down the proverbial toilet, the final decision on what happens at this stage may end up resting with the EU, and in particular to what extent have they lost patience and want to get on with ever-closer-union without Britain (albeit without its contribution of however many millions every week).

One way or another, I suspect the events of this week probably guarantee leave would win any new referendum.

 

[bramling]

Yes and I'm a higher rate tax payer so it would cost me. Great public services cost money to provide.

Given people in my office will squabble over a few £s worth of overtime, I suspect you might well be in the minority!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Like Singapore you mean?

Singapore?

Very much a dystopia beneath the surface, and a member of ASEAN which is slowly developing towards being, er, a bit like the EU.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes and I'm a higher rate tax payer so it would cost me. Great public services cost money to provide.

I think figures are distracting, but I would certainly vote for a significant increase if it meant quality public services in the manner of Scandinavia, yes.

 

[Howardh]

I suspect more depends on what the DUP decide.

And of course ultimately with Westminster having flushed themselves down the proverbial toilet, the final decision on what happens at this stage may end up resting with the EU, and in particular to what extent have they lost patience and want to get on with ever-closer-union without Britain (albeit without its contribution of however many millions every week).

One way or another, I suspect the events of this week probably guarantee leave would win any new referendum.

Which then brings us back to what sort of leave and the arguments start all over again? More roundabouts than Swindon.
if there was a definition of "leave", eg WTO rules, I don't think that would get anywhere near 50% as I would imagine the 48% are against it and then add those who vote leave but think that's too extreme.
I take it the 48% would still be allowed another vote...???!!

 

[Journeyman]

As for Scotland, they voted to remain part of the U.K. in their referendum. Consequences come with that decision. Is public opinion in Scotland quite so entrenched towards the EU as the SNP advocate? I’ve heard it said that the Scottish EU referendum result was partly an attempt to avoid Sturgeon re-igniting the independence debate, as opposed to a love of the EU. How true is this? I’ve heard it suggested by a number of Scottish people.

I think a lot of hardcore Scottish nationalists are shocked and angry by the failure of Brexit to significantly shift opinion in favour of independence. It would seem that Scottish voters are more emotionally attached to the UK than they are to the EU. If an IndyRef was held tomorrow, despite the extremely ill feeling most Scottish people have towards the farce in Westminster, I suspect it would be a win for staying part of the union, albeit on a somewhat smaller majority than last time.

Sturgeon has to keep the issue going to keep the support of the hardcore nats, but she knows she can't do it yet, especially because she'd never get consent from Westminster, and a unilateral vote would be illegitimate.

Personally, I'm getting heartily sick of the Scottish government's increasing tax take from my fairly modest salary, and their continual pushing of independence, while allowing a lot of things they can fix now to get worse, just to keep people sufficiently aggrieved to support them.

Actually, views on Scottish independence are very, very hard to shift, with most people extremely entrenched in their opinion. Probably about 80% of the voters on each side will never, ever, change their opinion on the subject, whatever information you give them, and so if independence is ever going to happen, you're depending on winning over almost everyone who is currently unsure. That's going to be quite a challenge.

 

[Mag_seven]

I saw David Cameron on the TV this morning - you know the idiot that let this whole Brexit genie out of the bottle just because he was worried about losing Tory votes to UKIP.

 

[bramling]

I think a lot of hardcore Scottish nationalists are shocked and angry by the failure of Brexit to significantly shift opinion in favour of independence. It would seem that Scottish voters are more emotionally attached to the UK than they are to the EU. If an IndyRef was held tomorrow, despite the extremely ill feeling most Scottish people have towards the farce in Westminster, I suspect it would be a win for staying part of the union, albeit on a somewhat smaller majority than last time.

Sturgeon has to keep the issue going to keep the support of the hardcore nats, but she knows she can't do it yet, especially because she'd never get consent from Westminster, and a unilateral vote would be illegitimate.

Personally, I'm getting heartily sick of the Scottish government's increasing tax take from my fairly modest salary, and their continual pushing of independence, while allowing a lot of things they can fix now to get worse, just to keep people sufficiently aggrieved to support them.

Actually, views on Scottish independence are very, very hard to shift, with most people extremely entrenched in their opinion. Probably about 80% of the voters on each side will never, ever, change their opinion on the subject, whatever information you give them, and so if independence is ever going to happen, you're depending on winning over almost everyone who is currently unsure. That's going to be quite a challenge.

Very informative post - thanks for taking the time to write it.

 

[radamfi]

Has anyone considered the possiblity that people might not be able to go abroad because of Brexit? Insurers won't insure all medical conditions, or at least at reasonable rates.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Has anyone considered the possiblity that people might not be able to go abroad because of Brexit? Insurers won't insure all medical conditions, or at least at reasonable rates.

Yes, this is quite possibly the case. There will be quite a lot of people who post Brexit can no longer travel outside the UK.

 

[radamfi]

Neither of those much use in our system. If they have a safe seat, once they're in they're impervious to lobbying and in many cases safe against all but a swing of 1945-type proportions. For myself, I've always lived in safe seats held by a party that I would never consider voting for.

Voting is a waste of time for the vast majority of UK residents.

 

[radamfi]

Yes, this is quite possibly the case. There will be quite a lot of people who post Brexit can no longer travel outside the UK.

How is this acceptable?

 

[Bletchleyite]

How is this acceptable?

It isn't. One of the many reasons not to leave.

The great irony is that as the Leave vote tended towards older people, it's Leave voters who will be primarily affected (as they won't get insurance with medical conditions).

 

[radamfi]

It isn't. One of the many reasons not to leave.

The great irony is that as the Leave vote tended towards older people, it's Leave voters who will be primarily affected (as they won't get insurance with medical conditions).

It is obvious to most sensible people it is unacceptable, but I want to see excuses from Leavers.

 

[Journeyman]

Very informative post - thanks for taking the time to write it.

Thanks - that's the way I see it, speaking as an Englishman in Scotland, who is centre-left, and voted Remain in the EU referendum, and No in the IndyRef. Other opinions are available.

 

[d9009alycidon]

....
Actually, views on Scottish independence are very, very hard to shift, with most people extremely entrenched in their opinion. Probably about 80% of the voters on each side will never, ever, change their opinion on the subject, whatever information you give them, and so if independence is ever going to happen, you're depending on winning over almost everyone who is currently unsure. That's going to be quite a challenge.

I was an ardent Nationalist in my younger years, particularly when Thatcher was in power and it seemed to many Scots that all government policy was geared to suiting London and the SE. One part of this perception was that interest rates were being raised to cool the economy of the SE while it had a negative impact on Scotland (which was effectively in recession) and the cry went up that a Scottish Government should have powers to set their own interest rates. That all changed at the referendum where the proposal was to keep any future Scottish currency tied to the Bank of England, something that I could not comprehend as being a cornerstone of "independence" and I came to the conclusion that what was being proposed by the SNP was not true independence and as a result I voted against in the referendum.

 

[Journeyman]

Has anyone considered the possiblity that people might not be able to go abroad because of Brexit? Insurers won't insure all medical conditions, or at least at reasonable rates.

It's going to make things return to the way they were 50 years ago, when going to France, Spain or Germany felt like a very big deal, and involved quite a lot of preparation. I think we've forgotten how easy it is just to pop over to Europe for the weekend, but that's going to change for the worse, and make it possibly as complicated as going somewhere that needs an electronic visa waiver, and a very extensive insurance policy.

 

[Journeyman]

I was an ardent Nationalist in my younger years, particularly when Thatcher was in power and it seemed to many Scots that all government policy was geared to suiting London and the SE. One part of this perception was that interest rates were being raised to cool the economy of the SE while it had a negative impact on Scotland (which was effectively in recession) and the cry went up that a Scottish Government should have powers to set their own interest rates. That all changed at the referendum where the proposal was to keep any future Scottish currency tied to the Bank of England, something that I could not comprehend as being a cornerstone of "independence" and I came to the conclusion that what was being proposed by the SNP was not true independence and as a result I voted against in the referendum.

I was open to persuasion and thought carefully about how I was going to vote in the IndyRef - as I've said, I'm English, but I've lived in Scotland since 2009, and I intend to stay here for the rest of my life (which is still a long time, hopefully). I thought the idea of the currency union was one of the far more ridiculous ideas the SNP came up with, and the lack of power it would give Scotland would, as you say, give a newly-independent country much less financial wiggle-room. The suggestion now is a Scottish pound, again an idea I'm not fond of.

I suspect Scotland will be independent sooner or later. I'm not fond of the idea, personally, but given the way things are going, I'll probably vote for it, because I'm aghast with horror at what Brexit has done. Personally, I think an independent Scotland should look seriously at using the Euro, but I guess there's a lot of downsides to that too.

At least I qualified for an Irish passport, so I can avoid having to hang my head in shame when travelling.

 

[radamfi]

That all changed at the referendum where the proposal was to keep any future Scottish currency tied to the Bank of England, something that I could not comprehend as being a cornerstone of "independence" and I came to the conclusion that what was being proposed by the SNP was not true independence and as a result I voted against in the referendum.

They had no choice, because the euro crisis was very recent in people's memory.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's going to make things return to the way they were 50 years ago, when going to France, Spain or Germany felt like a very big deal, and involved quite a lot of preparation. I think we've forgotten how easy it is just to pop over to Europe for the weekend, but that's going to change for the worse, and make it possibly as complicated as going somewhere that needs an electronic visa waiver, and a very extensive insurance policy.

For those who don't have a condition that would exclude an insurance policy, going to the US or Canada is *not* complicated in the slightest.

Spend 5 minutes doing ESTA/ETA, another 5 taking out an insurance policy, and then book flights the same as you would for Europe.

It's the Internet that has made preparing for a trip much less of a big deal, and that isn't going anywhere.

 

[Journeyman]

For those who don't have a condition that would exclude an insurance policy, going to the US or Canada is *not* complicated in the slightest.

Spend 5 minutes doing ESTA/ETA, another 5 taking out an insurance policy, and then book flights the same as you would for Europe.

It's the Internet that has made preparing for a trip much less of a big deal, and that isn't going anywhere.

I think you're missing the point. You have to apply for an ESTA early, in case there's any delay in approving it, and if you do have a number of conditions, foreign travel isn't very straightforward.

If I decide to go to a foreign country on a whim, going to one within Europe is just about as simple and easy as travelling from one end of this country to the other. Banking works, phones work and don't charge extortionate fees, and everything is designed to be simple and integrated.

If I decided, sitting here at my office, that I fancied a quick break to Europe, I could act now, and in less than three hours walk off the plane into another EU nation without having to think about it for a second. I could use my UK driving licence to hire a car, and it would all be incredibly straightforward. In future, it may well be a lot more difficult.

 

[Howardh]

Has anyone considered the possiblity that people might not be able to go abroad because of Brexit? Insurers won't insure all medical conditions, or at least at reasonable rates.

Yes, this is quite possibly the case. There will be quite a lot of people who post Brexit can no longer travel outside the UK.

*Waves*
Hoping my tests prove I'm OK, or at worst easily treatable; but if not the thought of excessive insurance premiums - say over £400 annually - would make me a virtual prisoner to the UK and even the Channel Islands would be off limits. The EHIC card would help but as alluded to earlier it doesn't help with repatriation. But the idea is that without the EHIC then we are held to ransom by the insurers who can charge what they want.

If any Brexiter who thinks holidaying in Britain is fantastic and would never ever go abroad would like to swap places with me...??

Note - before dad died I checked (out of interest) what a quote for him would be for a week's holiday, he had bladder/postrate issues + recovering from a broken hip and if i remember the quotes weren't too bad for an 85-yr-old, thing around the £200 mark, not sure if that was per trip or annual. if it were annual I'd be happy with that; if that's per trip it's a non-starter unless it's a very long trip!

 

[Howardh]

I think you're missing the point. You have to apply for an ESTA early, in case there's any delay in approving it, and if you do have a number of conditions, foreign travel isn't very straightforward.

If I decide to go to a foreign country on a whim, going to one within Europe is just about as simple and easy as travelling from one end of this country to the other. Banking works, phones work and don't charge extortionate fees, and everything is designed to be simple and integrated.

If I decided, sitting here at my office, that I fancied a quick break to Europe, I could act now, and in less than three hours walk off the plane into another EU nation without having to think about it for a second. I could use my UK driving licence to hire a car, and it would all be incredibly straightforward. In future, it may well be a lot more difficult.

In London and the south-east I wouldn't be surprised if many got home from work on a Friday and decided to spend the evening in a pub in Calais or Lille (Eurostar) - that easy (as it should be). I've done many a day-trip by air to the near continent from Manchester, passport, EHIC, credit card and it's all so easy.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In London and the south-east I wouldn't be surprised if many got home from work on a Friday and decided to spend the evening in a pub in Calais or Lille (Eurostar)

I doubt it because of E*'s pricing policy. If there was an Off Peak Return for about 100 quid I'd have done that on many occasions, but booking E* at the last minute is just too expensive. Perhaps ironically, the chance of doing that cheaply is much higher by air.

I often *do* get up on a Saturday morning and decide on a rail day trip to somewhere in the UK relatively far-flung (North Wales is a particular favourite), but as a result of ticketing policies doing that outside the UK is just not happening.

 

[Journeyman]

In London and the south-east I wouldn't be surprised if many got home from work on a Friday and decided to spend the evening in a pub in Calais or Lille (Eurostar) - that easy (as it should be). I've done many a day-trip by air to the near continent from Manchester, passport, EHIC, credit card and it's all so easy.

Agreed. Saying "but it won't be any different to going to America" is not going to wash with me, because going to America requires more planning, more admin and more risk, and that's not just down to distance.

Right now, you can visit 27 other countries with absolutely no restriction, to the point that if you like any of them enough, you can stay and never come back.

 

[Senex]

That may have been the prudent choice anyway - EHIC just gets you what the locals get, which may not be 100% free treatment and definitely doesn't include repatriation if that was to be necessary.

It's going to make things return to the way they were 50 years ago, when going to France, Spain or Germany felt like a very big deal, and involved quite a lot of preparation. I think we've forgotten how easy it is just to pop over to Europe for the weekend, but that's going to change for the worse, and make it possibly as complicated as going somewhere that needs an electronic visa waiver, and a very extensive insurance policy.

But that's what the Leavers wanted, isn't it? Put up the barriers certainly makes it harder for Johnny Foreigner to come here, but it does tend to have reciprocal consequences.