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Grand Union Trains Plans to run from London to Cardiff - Now rejected by ORR

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Jorge Da Silva

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https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pd...c-equilibrium-test-oa-form-gut-2019-03-27.pdf

NOTIFICATION TO THE OFFICE OF RAIL AND ROAD OF A PROPOSED OPEN ACCESS SERVICE THAT MAY BE SUBJECT TO THE ECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM TEST
Please use this form to notify the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) of an open access service that may be subject to the Economic Equilibrium Test.
For further information, please see our published Guidance on the Economic Equilibrium Test.
Information submitted in this form regarding the planned operation of the service should cover at least the first three years and, as far as possible, the first five years of operation.
Submitted forms will be published on the ORR website and notified to the relevant parties.
If this form is submitted with incomplete information, ORR will inform the applicant that incomplete requests will not be considered and will give the applicant the possibility to complete its request within ten working days.
This form does not replace our usual access application process, which should be followed in the usual manner as set out in our published guidance.
ORR may request additional information in order to undertake the Economic Equilibrium Test.
What to send:
Please supply this form by e-mail, in plain Microsoft Word or Open Document Text format (i.e. excluding any macros, auto-para or page numbering, or other auto-formatting).
Where to send it:
Email: [email protected]
You should also send a completed copy of this notification form to the relevant infrastructure manager.
OFFICE OF RAIL AND ROAD
ONE KEMBLE STREET, LONDON, WC2B 4AN
Switchboard 020 7282 2000 • Website www.orr.gov.uk
Form OA
Applicant details:
Company: GRAND UNION TRAINS
Contact individual: IAN YEOWART
Job title: CHIEF EXECUTIVE
Address: RIVERSIDE LODGE, FULFORD, YORK
Telephone number: [redacted]
E-mail address: [redacted]
Date of Form OA submission to ORR:
27 March 2019
Planned start date of services:
December 2020
Does the applicant:
(a) hold a valid train operating licence under section 8 of the Railways Act 1993 or an exemption under section 7, or under The Railway (Licensing of Railway Undertakings) Regulations 2005, and

(b) hold a valid safety certificate under the Railways and Other Guided Transport Systems (Safety) Regulations 2006.

If the answer to (a) or (b) is no, please state the point reached in obtaining a licence, exemption and/or safety certificate.
The team consists of experienced railway personnel and advisors and the application for the licence and safety certificate will be undertaken alongside the application for access.
Summary of the proposed service:
Please include the detailed route of the proposed service, indicating departure and destination stations and all intermediate stops.
Please set out the indicative timings and frequency of the proposed service, including proposed departure and arrival times. This information may be submitted in an annex if preferred.
Please set out indicative information about the intended rolling stock.
London Paddington – Bristol Parkway – Severn Tunnel Junction – Newport – Cardiff Central
Hourly service leaving at 35 minutes past each hour. First down service at 0735 arriving Cardiff at 0920. Last down service at 2135. First up service at 0635 arriving Paddington at 0820. Last up service at 1935.
Use of Class 91 locomotives, 9 coaches and 1 DVT in each train set

Grand Union Trains has proposed an Hourly service from London Paddington to Cardiff Central calling at Bristol Parkway, Severn Tunnel Junction, Newport and Cardiff Central. It would leave London at 35 minutes past the hour.

They would use 9-car class 91 starting from December 2020.

Any thoughts?
 
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The Planner

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Standard Ian Yeowart, expect it to drag on for a couple of years and then die.
 

DarloRich

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https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pd...c-equilibrium-test-oa-form-gut-2019-03-27.pdf

Grand Union Trains has proposed an Hourly service from London Paddington to Cardiff Central calling at Bristol Parkway, Severn Tunnel Junction, Newport and Cardiff Central. It would leave London at 35 minutes past the hour.

They would use 9-car class 91 starting from December 2020.

Any thoughts?

ain't gonna happen.

PS Surely Grand Union trains should run from Paddington to Birmingham ;)
 

MatthewRead

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https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pd...c-equilibrium-test-oa-form-gut-2019-03-27.pdf

Grand Union Trains has proposed an Hourly service from London Paddington to Cardiff Central calling at Bristol Parkway, Severn Tunnel Junction, Newport and Cardiff Central. It would leave London at 35 minutes past the hour.

They would use 9-car class 91 starting from December 2020.

Any thoughts?
I thought the 91's and Mark 4's had already been snapped up by TFW and Grand North Western for their new London-Blackpool service.
 

jopsuk

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File under "not going to happen".

if they can achieve a 15 minute turnaround (otherwise they'll occupy a platform for 75 minutes, or need to shunt out and back in) then an 4 hour round trip hourly needs four trains in service, so not much stock required (say a fleet of six trains? except they'll try to go for five and be beset by reliability issues)
 

DarloRich

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File under "not going to happen".

if they can achieve a 15 minute turnaround (otherwise they'll occupy a platform for 75 minutes, or need to shunt out and back in) then an 4 hour round trip hourly needs four trains in service, so not much stock required (say a fleet of six trains? except they'll try to go for five and be beset by reliability issues)

Surely rolling stock/cost of rolling stock wont be an issue as many of the 91's will be off lease soon. More of a problem will be pathing................
 

59CosG95

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will the knitting be up by then? Including Severn Tunnel
Yes. The wiring to Cardiff Central should be complete by the end of 2019. Wires are now starting to go up in Wales too; the Easter Blockade & following weekend this month between Bristol Parkway and Newport will almost certainly see some more wires up in the STJ area.
 

jopsuk

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Surely rolling stock/cost of rolling stock wont be an issue as many of the 91's will be off lease soon. More of a problem will be pathing................
but they will absolutely try to keep costs to a minimum.
 

Envoy

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Excellent idea - nothing like having competition rather than one company having full control of a route.
 

Bletchleyite

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I agree, a bit of innovation and competition is what the industry needs - and, I'm quite optimistic about the plans too. Maintenance of the Mk4s could be easy enough at Canton.

What's innovative about running conventional LHCS on an hourly service from London to Cardiff? It's just revenue abstraction.
 

Envoy

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What's innovative about running conventional LHCS on an hourly service from London to Cardiff? It's just revenue abstraction.

If they can reduce the prices, it could attract new customers and help clear the M4 of traffic. It would be good for tourism at places served by the route as lower prices would induce people to make journeys they might otherwise not have made. I know of people who travel with National Express or Megabus on this route because they look at the rail fares and then just rule out the rail option due to the prices. (Some don’t know that you have to pre-book a specific train around 11 weeks in advance in order to get a significantly lower price - which is not a user friendly system).
 

swt_passenger

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Of course there is that, but it could allow GWR's IETs to be strengthened elsewhere.
You seriously believe the DfT would happily reduce GWR’s service level commitment to make room for an OA operator to abstract revenue from the franchise, and affect the IEP finances?
 

JonathanH

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If they can reduce the prices, it could attract new customers and help clear the M4 of traffic. It would be good for tourism at places served by the route as lower prices would induce people to make journeys they might otherwise not have made. I know of people who travel with National Express or Megabus on this route because they look at the rail fares and then just rule out the rail option due to the prices. (Some don’t know that you have to pre-book a specific train around 11 weeks in advance in order to get a significantly lower price - which is not a user friendly system).

If they can get a cheaper price using National Express or Megabus and are happy to take the longer journey time, why shouldn't they continue doing so?

How would you expect an open access operator to be able to charge lower prices if they are subject to the same costs? They might be able to only run services at 'profitable' times but otherwise have the same basic costs.
 

Bletchleyite

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If they can get a cheaper price using National Express or Megabus and are happy to take the longer journey time, why shouldn't they continue doing so?

How would you expect an open access operator to be able to charge lower prices if they are subject to the same costs? They might be able to only run services at 'profitable' times but otherwise have the same basic costs.

GWR relies on IC income to cross-subsidise the regional services to some extent. That's a benefit of one big franchise (not to mention connectivity). The OA operator will abstract that revenue.

It also offers somewhat of a Hobson's choice - a Class 800 which is a good train with terrible seats, or Mk4s which are a bad train with good seats. :)
 

Envoy

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If they can get a cheaper price using National Express or Megabus and are happy to take the longer journey time, why shouldn't they continue doing so?
Sure, they can continue to do so but it takes about twice as long to travel between London & Cardiff by bus as it does by train, but the bus fares are far lower than the train fares when buying at or near date of travel.

How would you expect an open access operator to be able to charge lower prices if they are subject to the same costs? They might be able to only run services at 'profitable' times but otherwise have the same basic costs.

Well, it seems to be working in France & Italy where there are competing companies operating high speed trains at lower fares. However, the French version (www.ouigo.com) is rather like the budget airlines - with all the nit-picking baggage allowances. The Italian version seems to be better and you can read about what the Man in Seat 61 has to say about it here:>
https://www.seat61.com/italo.htm
 

30907

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Well, it seems to be working in France & Italy where there are competing companies operating high speed trains at lower fares. However, the French version (www.ouigo.com) is rather like the budget airlines - with all the nit-picking baggage allowances.
And is wholly part of SNCF - almost as if they were getting their retaliation in first before open access finally gets allowed :)
 

Suraggu

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It will not happen for varying reason but summed up in a few points.
1) Bar Severn Tunnel Jct the entire service is revenue abstractive.
2) Class 91 + 9 Mk.4 +DVT will not match future IET timetable thanks to IET's superior acceleration.
3) Very slim picking path wise between Bristol Parkway to London Paddington once the full IET timetable has been implemented.
 

Essexman

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Surely they would need to offer more than GWR do - and not just lower cost. Either stop at different stations to GWR (and there aren't any between Bristol Parkway & Reading), start somewhere beyond Cardiff, or run by another route.
 
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