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Crossrail opening delayed (opening date not yet known)

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700007

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They do kind of need the revenue if they are going to keep delaying the rest of the core. The project is already over budget so it will all help. The quicker it's opened, the quicker the money comes in. It is quite easy to test alongside existing trains. Night testing would have no trains and during the day, they can work them inbetween normal trains. Much like what happens in the rest of the UK when new trains are being tested.

But this testing is different to the testing you are referring to. When new trains are tested, majority of it centres around the actual trains and whether it can cope in the environments it is planned to - not much in most cases is about infrastructure for the most of it unless you factor in stuff like signal interference.

All Crossrail testing is related to testing the brand new trains, signals, tracks and stations - every brick laid, every bolt drilled and every cable mounted is going to be rigorously tested to check it is safe and can operate.

Rather than startup the Abbey Wood line then, you can still divert the existing Shenfield services. Off peak, the frequency being 6tph, it would work turning at LST Low Level. Peak time you would have to split between low and high level but that is already part of the plan for XR. This still provides the benefit of less services into Liverpool Street for GA To make improvements to services.
Unfortunately that brings no benefits to TfL or Crossrail opening up the same station just downstairs. It would increase operating costs in the short term if anything and would not change revenue as it is the same passengers and connections offered.

It is also not in TfL's interests quite bluntly if Greater Anglia cannot improve their services as a result of delays to Crossrail. TfL, like most other companies, only care about their own balance sheet and objectives and will not lose sleep about disrupting others'.
 
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AM9

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... Rather than startup the Abbey Wood line then, you can still divert the existing Shenfield services. Off peak, the frequency being 6tph, it would work turning at LST Low Level. Peak time you would have to split between low and high level but that is already part of the plan for XR. This still provides the benefit of less services into Liverpool Street for GA To make improvements to services.
All that does is ramp up the costs, slow down the completion of the core from Liverpool St eastwards, and create more confusion for some passengers, - especially in times of disruption.
 

hwl

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They do kind of need the revenue if they are going to keep delaying the rest of the core. The project is already over budget so it will all help. The quicker it's opened, the quicker the money comes in. It is quite easy to test alongside existing trains. Night testing would have no trains and during the day, they can work them inbetween normal trains. Much like what happens in the rest of the UK when new trains are being tested.


Rather than startup the Abbey Wood line then, you can still divert the existing Shenfield services. Off peak, the frequency being 6tph, it would work turning at LST Low Level. Peak time you would have to split between low and high level but that is already part of the plan for XR. This still provides the benefit of less services into Liverpool Street for GA To make improvements to services.
They actually get the majority of additional revenue just from running stage 5a from Paddington to Reading (and more Heathrow T4 when they can use the 345s in the Heathrow Tunnels). The second (minority) chunk of additional revenue is Paddington - Abbey Wood. Joining up both GEML and GWML services to the core is low single digit % additional revenue.

In some case opening the core loses TfL money e.g. Thameslink MML to Canary Wharf commuters where they change to Jubilee at West Hampstead (Z2 interchange) currently but will change to Crossrail at Farringdon in the future (Z1 interchange) so GTR get the big Z1-Z2 fare increment.

The Testing required is often a prerequisite to any core running. This isn't about testing new trains for fault free running, this is about testing besting the infrastructure and software in situ. No test completion = no running i.e. no testing along side till the minimum functionality requirements are met if they decide to split delivery
 

hwl

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Talk on the testing trains are that an Abbey Wood > Canary Wharf service could be a viable start. Crossovers at Custom House would certainly help facilitate this, leaving the main core to get its stuff done. Canary Wharf Station is in better shape than most though Woolwich seems to be less so. There are other logistical plus-points for this including a dedicated west depot start point at Westbourne Park, with an eastern start point at Pudding Mill Lane where some current weekend work takes place. It's always been a bug bear of mine that getting to Canary Wharf from the south-east is difficult enough but that utilising the Abbey Wood branch would most certainly yield significant numbers.
Abbey Wood - Canary Wharf also avoid having to pay penalties to Canary Wharf group from 2021 if there aren't services running!
 

hwl

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I had too also known this quite some time before it was announced.
It was fairly obvious from Christmas '16 - New Year '17 onwards that things were so behind it was always going to end up in delayed opening.
The contract financials from mid 2016 onwards are also interesting in that billing for planned work was behind schedule but billing totals overall were about right because of all the variations coming in. That can only go on for so long before the bills for the delayed planned works come in (followed by all the extra variations).

Crossrail were quoting X% completion in reports, unfortunately the reality was the total wasn't "100%" but "115%" in reality. 92% quoted in July vs reality of a rebased 92/115 = 80%...

It turns out that some of the 2010-11 value engineering /cost cutting actually did neither.
 

Esker-pades

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I don't understand the proposals on this forum to open little bits of CrossRail by "just installing a set of points at Custom House" or whereever. There is absolutely no point diverting resources to short-term builds, thus taking resources from completing the main project meaning the whole thing opens later than it could have done.
 

hwl

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I don't understand the proposals on this forum to open little bits of CrossRail by "just installing a set of points at Custom House" or whereever. There is absolutely no point diverting resources to short-term builds, thus taking resources from completing the main project meaning the whole thing opens later than it could have done.
Agreed - though Custom House is the only place you wouldn't need to install anything as it has 3 sets already: trailing and facing to the west and trailing to the east
 

MarlowDonkey

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The Guardian now has a report that it might not even make 2021.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ld-be-delayed-beyond-2021-target-admits-chief

Crossrail could be delayed beyond 2021 target, admits chief
Uncertainty over software behind £17.6bn rail line linking west and east of London

Gwyn Topham Transport correspondent

The new 2021 target for the opening of Crossrail is liable to slip further due to continuing uncertainty about the software behind the new rail line, its chief executive has admitted.

Crossrail on Thursday confirmed reports last week that services in central London would not start until as late as March 2021.

A six-month window from autumn 2020 is the new target, the first public commitment since the December 2018 opening was abandoned. Crossrail said it was “a robust and realistic plan” to put the project back on track. But it warned that Bond Street, one of the main central stations, would not be ready to open by then.

Hundreds of maintenance workers hired for Crossrail will be paid to “practise” until services start, it has emerged.

Unions said the plan to start services in central London could mask further delays to the full running of the £17.6bn rail line, integrating the central and eastern sections. Twelve trains an hour will run across the central section when it opens, rather than the 24 trains an hour eventually planned.

The Crossrail chief executive, Mark Wild, who was brought in to review the project when the original management team departed as problems emerged, said the date remained uncertain because engineers still did not know what they would find in testing.

“This project is of immense engineering complexity,” Wild told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme. “The work we’ve done is working out the very careful sequence of knitting together all these very complex systems.”

He said that while they were testing trains at full line speed in tunnels under London, and hoped to complete much of the infrastructure in the months ahead, intensive testing would be needed in 2020. “We don’t know what software bugs we’ll find in that phase and there’s no short cuts,” he said.

He gave no assurance that it would definitely be open by 2021: “Our uncertainty is simply that when we get into proper train reliability growth next year, we don’t know what we’ll find.”

Wild said that if there was a lesson for HS2, the high-speed rail network that will be Britain’s next transport infrastructure megaproject, it was that as a “digital installation” there were different risks from other engineering works. “When you get into software development and bringing that to fruition, there is obviously uncertainty and people should be honest about that,” he said.

Wild also admitted that hundreds of staff were not doing the work they had been hired to do in anticipation of services starting. Speaking to LBC, Wild said that while 500 train drivers were “fully utilised” in testing and operating Transport for London rail services, “the drivers are not actually the significant issue. The issue we have is our maintenance technicians. There are about 200 highly trained maintenance technicians who are practising.”

He said it was “frustrating for them and disappointing”.

On Thursday, the TfL commissioner, Mike Brown, told the London assembly that he would not quit, despite being urged to consider his position. A transport committee report found he had “watered down” the problems and risks of delay at Crossrail in communications with the London mayor, Sadiq Khan.

Transport unions also doubted the new target dates. The TSSA general secretary, Manuel Cortes, said it was more “jam tomorrow” from Crossrail: “Londoners who are footing the bill for this delay will not be fooled – there’s nothing concrete here about when full services will commence.” He called for a public inquiry into a “fiasco which has seen private contractors carry on making millions despite their failure to deliver”.

Crossrail’s budget was blown last year, with two bailouts and contingency loans bringing the total bill to an expected £17.6bn, almost £3bn more than planned.

The Elizabeth line, as Crossrail will be known, will eventually link Heathrow and Reading in the west of the capital to Shenfield and Abbey Wood to the east, and carry 200 million passengers a year.
 

jfowkes

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I read "beyond 2021 target" as "beyond the target in the year 2021" and therefore "beyond March 2021", so still within the year 2021.
 

Bald Rick

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It turns out that some of the 2010-11 value engineering /cost cutting actually did neither.

Value Management and Value Engineering never realises savings once you are in construction of the things you apply it to.
 

hwl

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Value Management and Value Engineering never realises savings once you are in construction of the things you apply it to.
Yep you always end up paying more later but enough people reckon they will have moved on by the time reality strikes. ( and got the credit for miraculous savings)

Some... because I'm not sure reality has struck in all cases yet!
 

colchesterken

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I assume this will delay the platform 18 withdrawal at Liv st. In that case will the remaining cl315 be replaced by more shortened 345 s. It seems a shame to keep shiny new toys in store when they could be used
 

hwl

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I assume this will delay the platform 18 withdrawal at Liv st. In that case will the remaining cl315 be replaced by more shortened 345 s. It seems a shame to keep shiny new toys in store when they could be used
Don't worry they extended the lease on enough 315s to cover several years ago.
The problem is that you need enough units to enable the 7 car units to be lengthened en mass as the western services have swapped to 345s and presumably the Paddington - Abbey Wood services my have started.
 

PR1Berske

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Timeline of delays and possible future timeframe from the Diamond Geezer website:

Source:.
http://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2019/04/later-and-later-and-later.html?m=1

Aug 2018: First delay announced
Sep 2018:
Oct 2018:
Nov 2018:
Dec 2018: Original opening date (Paddington - Abbey Wood) Second delay announced
Jan 2019:
Feb 2019:
Mar 2019:
Apr 2019: Third delay announced ←[We Are Here]
-----
May 2019: Original opening date (Paddington - Shenfield)
Jun 2019:
Jul 2019:
Aug 2019:
Sep 2019:
Oct 2019:
Nov 2019:
Dec 2019: Original completion date (through Paddington to Reading)
Jan 2020:
Feb 2020:
Mar 2020:
Apr 2020:
May 2020: Mayoral election
Jun 2020:
Jul 2020:
Aug 2020:
Sep 2020:
Oct 2020: Earliest opening date (Paddington - Abbey Wood, minus Bond Street)
Nov 2020:
Dec 2020: Two years late
Jan 2021:
Feb 2021:
Mar 2021: 'Latest' opening date (Paddington - Abbey Wood, minus Bond Street)
Apr 2021: Queen Elizabeth's 95th birthday (fingers crossed)
 

jayah

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Hmm, this slide from the February meeting seems to suggest to me that the idea that everything seemed huncky-dory till August was rather a lie.

View attachment 61700
It is very banal reading:

Risk / Issue - we need to finish the infrastructure.
Mitigation - we need to prioritise programme wide activity to err... finish the infrastructure.
Status - Red
What happens if we miss target - there is no infrastructure.
 

hwl

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It is very banal reading:

Risk / Issue - we need to finish the infrastructure.
Mitigation - we need to prioritise programme wide activity to err... finish the infrastructure.
Status - Red
What happens if we miss target - there is no infrastructure.
You can't prioritise everything though!
 

317 forever

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Infact, there are points at Whitechapel aren't there. They could start Abbey Wood to Whitechapel (possible single line working to Liverpool Street but this would be a reduced frequency). Though this doesn't have the same ring to it, it allows soft openings of Crossrail and at least gets people used to the system partly. Any revenue is better than nothing. You can then focus all staff and resources onto the other central stations.

I think it was a similar story with the Jubilee Line extension. The eastern end opened initially from Stratford to North Greenwich and progressively extended westbound, until it finally merged with the established Jubilee Line service (albeit with the section from Green Park to Charing Cross closing).
 

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I think it was a similar story with the Jubilee Line extension. The eastern end opened initially from Stratford to North Greenwich and progressively extended westbound, until it finally merged with the established Jubilee Line service (albeit with the section from Green Park to Charing Cross closing).

That’s exactly what happened. Westminster was the JLE’s Bond Street, opening later than the rest of the stations.

There ended up being an immovable deadline for the opening of the JLE as it was the centrepiece of transport arrangements for the Millennium Celebrations at the Dome.
 

ForTheLoveOf

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Passengers using the current GWR Electrostar Reading stoppers will no doubt be severely disappointed by most of the changes brought by the change to TfL Rail. Non-season ticket holders will receive an enormously lower amount of compensation for delays if they dare to extend their journey beyond the contactless area, this being calculated at the miserly NRCoT mandated 50% minimum for 1 hour with an "entirely out of the rail industry's control" exemption. And even if they stay within the contactless area, it's still only a 30 minute exempted policy. This is a massive step down from the current 15 minute Delay Repay scheme they are currently able to enjoy.

Not to mention the substantial downgrade in the comfort, onboard facilities and number of seats offered by the rolling stock, and the considerably more onerous conditions and Byelaws for passengers. And all this without a hint of the benefits of the takeover (an integrated cross-London service), let alone the improvements that other rolling stock renewal schemes (e.g. Thameslink) have offered to offset the downsides.

I'm certainly very glad my local station isn't at risk of being commandeered by TfL. Unless and until they work on the above detractors (quite ignoring the political nonsense that comes from TfL being hamstrung by a total loss of grant) I will be heavily against any further expansion of TfL Rail.
 

bramling

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That’s exactly what happened. Westminster was the JLE’s Bond Street, opening later than the rest of the stations.

There ended up being an immovable deadline for the opening of the JLE as it was the centrepiece of transport arrangements for the Millennium Celebrations at the Dome.

One key difference with the JLE was that they broadcast quite early that the original opening date was unrealistic.

The concerning aspect to Crossrail is not so much that it's late, but the fact that the management surrounding this lateness has been shambolic, and quite possibly positively deceitful. No Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, in JLE days of course!
 

Hadders

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One key difference with the JLE was that they broadcast quite early that the original opening date was unrealistic.

The concerning aspect to Crossrail is not so much that it's late, but the fact that the management surrounding this lateness has been shambolic, and quite possibly positively deceitful. No Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, in JLE days of course!

Good point. I do remember that there were 3 years (I think) of very negative media coverage about the delays and cost overrun. I suspect it would've take them even longer were it not for 31 December 1999 and the Millennium Celebrations becoming an immovable deadline. In the end didn't the final bit between Green Park and Waterloo open, to much relief, on something like 21st December 1999, with Westminster Station following a few days later?
 

Goldfish62

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One key difference with the JLE was that they broadcast quite early that the original opening date was unrealistic.

The concerning aspect to Crossrail is not so much that it's late, but the fact that the management surrounding this lateness has been shambolic, and quite possibly positively deceitful. No Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, in JLE days of course!
Indeed, no TfL or Mayor back then and London Underground was a government-owned organisation. TfL, increasingly under successive mayors, has turned into a massive spin machine pumping out "positive" news.
 

evergreenadam

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Presumably we do not yet know what the now promised initial 12tph will consist of or over which parts of the line it will operate.
 

hwl

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Presumably we do not yet know what the now promised initial 12tph will consist of or over which parts of the line it will operate.
The Crossrail Press release linked to on the previous page on Thursday evening says Paddington - Abbey Wood.
 

Geswedey

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Perhaps by the time it opens it could accurately be called the LATE Elizabeth Line, on a serious note I think the planned name is an now an embarrassment
 

nickswift99

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Perhaps by the time it opens it could accurately be called the LATE Elizabeth Line, on a serious note I think the planned name is an now an embarrassment
There is a risk that by the time the line is open the reigning monarch may be called Charles.
 

Class 170101

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No diference to the Jubilee line that opened in 1979. It was meant to open in 1977 for the Queen's Silver Jubilee, hence its colour on the tube map.
 
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Don't worry they extended the lease on enough 315s to cover several years ago.

I'd say the worry isn't so much "there won't be enough 315s", but that it's now almost physically impossible to board 315s at stations like Ilford, Forest Gate, Maryland etc. during the morning peak. The 345s are so much better at swallowing a crowd.

That said, as someone who lives near Forest Gate and works out near Hayes and Harlington once a week… I just want anything to open as soon as possible.
 
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