EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[433N]

I don’t need or want to move, I have the house I want, fully paid off. Ironically I may well have on paper benefited as its value has climbed heavily in the last decade. However I have friends and family on good incomes who simply can’t afford property which would have been readily available to them a generation ago, that bugs me far more than the prospect of a few retirees not being able to retire to Spain.

The question is really whether your friends and family on good incomes can't afford property because of immigration or poor fiscal policy.

To say that it is the fault of immigration seems rather paradoxical. Economic migrants are, almost by definition, poorer and so how can they possibly buy houses particularly in areas where locals are complaining of being priced out of the market ? It is rather the same argument that immigrants are coming here and stealing our jobs AND our benefits.

The nub of the issue for me should be seen as the financial crisis. In the early noughties, people took on loans they couldn't afford. In the past, there would have been a house price crash and repossessions would have increased. Technically, when a mortgage is taken out, the borrower (ie. bank) has first dibs on the house if a lender defaults. But in the financial crisis, we bailed out the banks and they no longer needed cash from mortgage repayments. We pursued a fiscal policy whereby people who had over-borrowed were suddenly rewarded with cheap money via low interest rates ... thus, no house price crash. Little Britain is happy and we are all rich ... except savers and those who didn't get a house in time.

I remain unconvinced that this was the correct fiscal policy. It is sort of a Keynesian-max approach which might have worked if the cheap money stayed within the British economy to support the British economy ... but it doesn't. We are a net importer and buy imported goods, so that cheap money essentially floats abroad. For each pound spent, a few pence leaks abroad and the problem becomes compounded over many transactions. It is ironic that the Tories who always veer towards free market economics have meddled to such a large extent in the housing market.*

As a country, we are (boringly) obsessed with house price rises, neglecting the fact that if your property falls in value then any property you may wish to purchase in the future will also be lower in price.

All this has nothing to do with immigration.

The British people have a startling reluctance to put the blame where it belongs.


* I know the BoE is 'independent' of government but they are not going to be allowed to follow a completely different fiscal approach to that which the government wants are they ?

 

[433N]

Studying in Europe is free!? Who comes up with this stupid statement. At least not in the Netherlands.

We see the 'Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam' and assume it's true to its word.

 

[Groningen]

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam 2019/2020 collegemoney:
EU student 2.083 euro
Non EU student often the same as EU student, but also possible from 5.000 to nearly 20.000 euro.

 

[anme]

It's possible one will happen if the next leader tries to push the Tories towards no deal or otherwise rightwards and their more moderate MPs join Change UK or just vote down their own government. However with the Brexit party riding high in the polls and Change UK likely to be wiped out, the result could actually be a Parliament with a majority for no deal, especially if the election is all about Brexit. In the view of anyone that doesn't have an axe to grind, that would be an absolute disaster.

At the moment the only way out I can see is for the backbenchers to take control again and try to force a referendum. Or revoke if no other option exists, but as I posted previously that would be very dangerous.

It's interesting to think what might happen in a general election. A conservative/brexit party alliance might well get a majority in parliament with 40-45% of the vote, especially if the remain parties did not make their own alliance. The new government could then force through a no-deal brexit, even if there was a remain majority in the country.

 

[radamfi]

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam 2019/2020 collegemoney:
EU student 2.083 euro

So a lot cheaper than the £9,000 a year tuition fees charged by most UK universities.

 

[radamfi]

thus, no house price crash.

Except in most of the UK. The house price boom has only persisted in the south.

 

[Groningen]

In the Amsterdam / Utrecht (Randstad) area the rent prices for students are rising and rising. Last year Amsterdam stood at 571 euro average per month. All those things are leading to 25 % burn out.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Buy to let Landlords have their part in this.

They have their part in driving up prices and making buying difficult, but they do not in any way contribute to the housing shortage - there's still one family unit living in each house, whether they happen to be renting or buying.

The main contributing factor, as I understand it, to the housing shortage, is the increasing number of one person households.

 

[433N]

Except in most of the UK. The house price boom has only persisted in the south.

Well, I suppose that depends on your definition of a house price crash.

The house prices : average earnings ratio in almost all areas of the country is way above historical averages. Obviously this is due to pursuance of a fiscal policy in which money is cheap - remember this was supposed to be short term and after 10 years, we are still at 0.75%.

Any recent weakness in house prices, I would only view as a minor correction.

 

[Darandio]

So she leaves on 7th June and leaves the lectern in floods of tears. Yet I cannot bring myself to feel one bit sorry for her.

 

[nidave]

They have their part in driving up prices and making buying difficult, but they do not in any way contribute to the housing shortage - there's still one family unit living in each house, whether they happen to be renting or buying.

The main contributing factor, as I understand it, to the housing shortage, is the increasing number of one person households.

So how can all these people (who people are claiming are undercutting the wages for the rest of the UK workers) afford to live alone in these houses if the people you know who are on higher wages also not able to afford the housing. Your math just does not add up.

 

[433N]

So she leaves on 7th June and leaves the lectern in floods of tears. Yet I cannot bring myself to feel one bit sorry for her.

Best not try then.

 

[Kite159]

So when does Boris take over?

Or a hard leaver who will leave the EU without a deal to 'respect' the result 3 years ago, and give us those wonderful blue passports

 

[Struner]

So June will be the end of May

 

[d9009alycidon]

Should that not read: the end of May will now take place in June, postponed like everything else to do with Brexit

 

[Struner]

We see the 'Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam' and assume it's true to its word.

It is free as in wee frees or free presbyterian.

 

[radamfi]

Except in most of the UK. The house price boom has only persisted in the south.

If you look at the North, as defined by Nationwide, the average house price in Q1 2019 was £129K, compared to £132K in Q1 2008, so a fall in actual cash terms yet inflation has been about 30% over that time. If you go back to 1999, the average price was £48K (£82K in todays' money) so there was a big rise over the last 20 years, but interest rates were much higher in 1999 so probably not much difference in affordability. Terraced houses in the North are still available for under £100,000 so on a 4 times multiplier only a £25K income is required to get a mortgage with a minimum deposit.

 

[bramling]

It's interesting to think what might happen in a general election. A conservative/brexit party alliance might well get a majority in parliament with 40-45% of the vote, especially if the remain parties did not make their own alliance. The new government could then force through a no-deal brexit, even if there was a remain majority in the country.

I think that would only happen if the Brexit party targeted pro-leave Labour seats. Even then they would have to get a *very* strong vote share to make any headway under the FPTP electoral system. The Corbyn vote would have to collapse in heartlands like the north-east, South Wales, South Yorkshire et cetera, and I’m not sure it would to that extent.

 

[zuriblue]

You mean a government cancelled a referendum result - and there weren't riots in the streets??

Nope. There have been 2 annulled recently, both by the Supreme Court. One was because there was misleading language in the official document which is a no-no and one because of electoral shenanigans.

In neither case were the shenanigans as serious as the ones that Aaron Banks and his chums perpetrated.

 

[DerekC]

So now we say goodbye to Mrs M and wait for … who? Bookies odds seem to be:

Boris Johnson - Evens
Dominic Raab - 9:2
Michael Gove - 10:1
Jeremy Hunt - 14:1
Andrea Leadsom - 16:1
Penny Mordaunt - 20:1
Jeremy Corbyn - 20:1
Nigel Farage - 20:1

I suspect that these haven't taken the latest news into account yet.

 

[nlogax]

So now we say goodbye to Mrs M and wait for … who?

At this rate, Godot.

 

[Giugiaro]

In the Amsterdam / Utrecht (Randstad) area the rent prices for students are rising and rising. Last year Amsterdam stood at 571 euro average per month. All those things are leading to 25 % burn out.

In Portugal rent prices for students have gone up in pretty much every city with higher education. But the problem is easily pinned down to four things:

1 - There are too much demand and very little offer; Landlords have the right to choose who they want to put on their homes, meaning boys (or girls), freshman (or graduates) may have a harder time finding a place to stay.
2 - Since students come and go in around three years, landlords have a pesky tendency to jack up the rents as students are in desperation to get a place to stay, increasing their profits;
3 - New housing being built is either for Hostels/Local Accommodation or are luxury housing, which students can't afford to rent, even if the flat/house is shared.
4 - The younger generation of workers have very little buying power, so they have opted to live in shared homes even after graduation, co-living with students and putting an even bigger burden on the current housing offer.

As a student who lived in Aveiro, I went through all 4 issues myself. 1 - Had a hard time looking for a new home during Masters, and most offers were just for females. 2 - My previous home from my Undergraduate got 50€ more expensive over a year. 3 - Some places my colleagues formerly lived on became places for tourists to stay, at prices we couldn't afford anymore, while new housing has expected rents of 500€ or 600€ per capita. 4 - My last home was shared with four other people, all professionals with a salary. Their rents were from the 150€/month of the oldest resident to the 200€/month of the most recent one. I, the newcomer, was paying 250€/month for the same kind of bedroom and the smallest storage in the kitchen.

In Porto and Lisbon, the situation is pretty dire. Monthly rents are getting almost as high as the annual tuition fee.

 

[DanDaDriver]

Boris Johnson - Evens
Dominic Raab - 9:2
Michael Gove - 10:1
Jeremy Hunt - 14:1
Andrea Leadsom - 16:1
Penny Mordaunt - 20:1
Jeremy Corbyn - 20:1
Nigel Farage - 20:1

None of those would make it out of Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory unscathed.

 

[Cowley]

None of those would make it out of Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory unscathed.

That made me chuckle.

 

[Spamcan81]

I'm the second one who would like an explanation (and I'm NOT a Corbyn supporter at all).

In a word, Momentum.

 

[eastdyke]

So now we say goodbye to Mrs M and wait for … who? Bookies odds seem to be:
Boris Johnson - Evens
Dominic Raab - 9:2
Michael Gove - 10:1
Jeremy Hunt - 14:1
Andrea Leadsom - 16:1
Penny Mordaunt - 20:1
Jeremy Corbyn - 20:1
Nigel Farage - 20:1
I suspect that these haven't taken the latest news into account yet.

The Betfair Exchange prices for 'Next Conservative Leader' (as opposed to the prices above which by inclusion of Jeremy Corbyn would appear to be for 'Next Prime Minister')
Are here - and they most certainly do take account of the latest news:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963
At the time of posting the (decimal) odds were
Boris Johnson - 2.04
Dominic Raab - 7.4
Michael Gove - 13
Jeremy Hunt - 15
Andrea Leadsom - 24
Penny Mordaunt - 26
Jeremy Corbyn - N/Q
Nigel Farage - 1000
And lots of others to laugh about

 

[Giugiaro]

You can bet for politicians? WTF

 

[EM2]

So let's say the new leader is in place by early July (unlikely I know but...)
Parliament rises for Summer recess in late July and returns in early September, then rises again for the Conferences in mid-September and returns in early October.
That doesn't leave a lot of time to get things done before Hallowe'en.

 

[Struner]

You can bet on anything. Including betting on politicians

 

[Strat-tastic]

So June will be the end of May

As per usual