Lines that will be lost due to Climate Change

[ChiefPlanner]

Dovey Junction - Ynyslas / Borth must be quite at risk - badly damaged in 1975 but thankfully restored. Also the Cambrian from DJ towards Aberdovey.

 

[HSTEd]

The value of property in the wider area is much lower than the UK average. £75m would be my guess for the real value of the 450 homes. If Fairbourne was a town of 10,000 or 20,000 people then a Dutch scheme would make sense. Its just 450 homes on land that is barely above sea level and surrounded on three sides by the sea and a river estuary. Its easy to see why the decision to abandon Fairbourne has been made. Gwynedd Council should not be paying compensation. A demolition and compensation scheme should be funded by the Welsh Government (environment being a devolved area).

If the council is the body required to pay for flood defences, it should also be the body required to compensate people when it fails to pay for said flood defences.
Otherwise you create a perverse incentive where the council would simply condemn everything because they aren't paying the bill for that, but do pay the bill for not condemning.

And £75m will buy you quite a bit of flood defence.....

 

[Chester1]

If the council is the body required to pay for flood defences, it should also be the body required to compensate people when it fails to pay for said flood defences.
Otherwise you create a perverse incentive where the council would simply condemn everything because they aren't paying the bill for that, but do pay the bill for not condemning.

And £75m will buy you quite a bit of flood defence.....

It should not be automatic for the reason you point out but that doesn't stop the Welsh government choosing to step in and help in this instance. The risk of loss of life probably outweighs the financial argument in favour of maintaining the sea defenses vs paying compensation. Its basically at sea level, on a river estuary and in an area prone to storms. Its easy to see why Gwynedd Council want to demolish the whole village and turn the area back to salt marsh. The railway would probably be the location of the new line of sea defenses.

 

[kylemore]

Sir John Franklin set off in 1845 to find the North West Passage. As everyone knows he was frozen in and his expedition came to grief. In the 19th century no-one ever succeeded in getting through from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Ever. However today cruise ships do it every summer. Funny that. I wonder what changed? Why has all the ice suddenly gone away?

No idea - maybe we've got very powerful icebreakers now!

Wherever it's gone it's not gone into increased sea level, if you grew up in a coastal town or on an island, and are of a certain age, you would know that.

I see my point above regarding the Maldives has gone unanswered - would big money invest in long term investments at sea level if there was any possibility of risk? It would be impossible to get a mortgage anywhere east of Doncaster or even in London! You can be sure that the people behind big money will know a damn sight more than the likes of you and me - they're not worried - they know fine it's garbage - it's a scam. The reasons for the scam can only be guessed at by people at our level.

So to keep on topic - the railways are fine!

 

[whittlesfordok]

it is most likely where the water is not drained well. If the Thames barrier goes down some of the underground is very at risk.

 

[Cowley]

No idea - I see my point above regarding the Maldives has gone unanswered - would big money invest in long term investments at sea level if there was any possibility of risk? It would be impossible to get a mortgage anywhere east of Doncaster or even in London!

The mortgage needs to be paid back no matter what happens.
The risk is in the insurance, and many people will find out that their houses may well be uninsurable in a few decades time after being flooded a few times.

 

[John S2]

Wherever it's gone it's not gone into increased sea level..

It is correct that the melting of ice that is already in the ocean does not directly contribute to sea level rise. The two main factors causing sea level rise are thermal expansion and the melting of land based ice.
Global sea level is currently rising at a rate of over 3mm per year. This might not sound very much, but the cumulative effect is considerable.
It is not practical to protect every section of vulnerable coastline, so hard decisions will need to be taken by central government about which railway lines are to be protected and which ones have to be let go as part of a managed retreat.

 

[bramling]

If the council is the body required to pay for flood defences, it should also be the body required to compensate people when it fails to pay for said flood defences.
Otherwise you create a perverse incentive where the council would simply condemn everything because they aren't paying the bill for that, but do pay the bill for not condemning.

And £75m will buy you quite a bit of flood defence.....

It might buy a lot of defence, but this doesn’t address the risks associated with the defences being overwhelmed, which is on paper one of the reasons quoted for abandoning the town.

Staying in Barmouth recently and being fortunate enough to be in a hotel room overlooking the Mawddach with Fairbourne in the distance, it’s obvious just how low-lying and vulnerable Fairbourne is. The residents may be comfortable with that risk, but I don’t think I would be happy to put my signature to it.

 

[reddragon]

It's just a hunch but my guess is that no lines will be lost to climate change and in 30 years time the usual eco-nutters will still be banging on hysterically about the impending climate emergency, just like they've been doing for the past 30 years.

We"ve all read the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf, haven't we?

Put your money where your mouth is then & move to the coast!

 

[reddragon]

My hunch as well, and there are plenty of "Top scientists" who agree or at least are uncomfortable with the alarmist hysteria.

So please don't "be quiet"!

You will note that their funders are the oil, gas & coal industry!

 

[reddragon]

If global warming, resulting in climate change, is not taking place then 150 years of physics is wrong. Expecting a sea level rise of 20m is being realistic. Alarmism is saying it could happen within 50 years.

(Editted because I accidentally hit the ‘post’ button)

Sadly, concerns are now being raised about tipping points when ice melt / sea level rise might irreversibly accelerate dramatically, making alarmist ideas a possibility. Already measured predictions have more than doubled the sea rise curve!

 

[reddragon]

No idea - maybe we've got very powerful icebreakers now!

Wherever it's gone it's not gone into increased sea level, if you grew up in a coastal town or on an island, and are of a certain age, you would know that.

I see my point above regarding the Maldives has gone unanswered - would big money invest in long term investments at sea level if there was any possibility of risk? It would be impossible to get a mortgage anywhere east of Doncaster or even in London! You can be sure that the people behind big money will know a damn sight more than the likes of you and me - they're not worried - they know fine it's garbage - it's a scam. The reasons for the scam can only be guessed at by people at our level.

So to keep on topic - the railways are fine!

There is a simple answer. If you look at the age band of the investors, they are happy to get a return in their life time / career span the **** it once they've got their pension!

Investors have dropped investment in coal simply because the investment return period is too short and with fail far too soon for them to move on.

I guess The Maldives need an airport for evacuation

 

[jfowkes]

It's just a hunch but my guess is that no lines will be lost to climate change and in 30 years time the usual eco-nutters will still be banging on hysterically about the impending climate emergency, just like they've been doing for the past 30 years.

We"ve all read the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf, haven't we?

We should note that at the end of The Boy Who Cried Wolf, there really is a wolf.

 

[reddragon]

Really scary news on the ice melt front. Greenland's ice shelf (which will add 7m to sea levels) has gone into super melt! Alaska the same

This map show what area is melting - nearly 50%

This chart shows that the melt rate in 2019 is far worse than any previous year, already beating past records by 12th June instead of late July.

 

[matacaster]

Many years ago I was involved in producing sea level rise maps, now it will take seconds, back then it took weeks.

Doncaster would be a seaside town with a 5m rise.

I'm off out buying a bucket and spade now!!

 

[Jon125]

The answers easy, store all the extra water in plastic bottles.

 

[Esker-pades]

The answers easy, store all the extra water in plastic bottles.

I really hope that's a joke.