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WCML InterCity Franchise

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FManc

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It looks like Stagecoach are starting legal proceedings against the DfT in regards to the East Midlands franchise. There is also a reference to the WCP bid and possible legal proceedings being instigated.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/SGC/14067002.html
Commencement of legal action against the Department for Transport

Stagecoach Group plc ("Stagecoach" or "the Company") confirms that its wholly owned subsidiary, Stagecoach East Midlands Trains Limited, has today commenced legal action against the Department for Transport ("DfT").

A claim has been issued today at the High Court in London under Part 7 of the Civil Procedure Rules (a "Part 7 claim"). The claim alleges that the Department for Transport breached its statutory duties under the relevant provisions of Regulation 1370/2007[1], in connection with the procurement of the new East Midlands rail franchise.

Stagecoach East Midlands Trains Limited was disqualified from the procurement of that franchise and the DfT announced on 10 April 2019 that it intended to award the franchise to Abellio after the expiry of a voluntary 10 working day standstill period. That standstill period has subsequently been extended but is due to end at midnight today.
 
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Japan0913

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by the way,
Can the XC franchiser also use the HS2 route from Birmingham to York?
Can EMR franchises also use the HS2 route from Midland to York?

WC Partnership franchiser only use both WC Mainline and HS2?

Is it OK to mix about 200 mph of trains and about 140 mph of trains?

Will at least EMR and XC need a vehicle with the same ability as WCP?

Is there a problem that WCP monopolizes HS2?
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Both these franchises will be specified and relet, probably more than once, before HS2 Phase 2 opens, so we don't know what the DfT will come up with by then (2033).
But more importantly, there are no connections between HS2 and the classic routes in Birmingham or Derby/Nottingham.
There will be new HS2-specific services between London/Birmingham-East Midlands/Leeds/York and then onto classic lines further north.
But I would say that there is much uncertainly about the future, with the franchise system under review and HS2 Phase 2 itself not certain to be built.

WCP is defined at the moment as West Coast from Euston via both the classic lines and (when it opens) HS2 Phase 1 (2026).
Plans for the future of the Midland route and the East Coast route after HS2 Phase 2 opens (2033) are not known.
Another big decision for Phase 2 is whether the Edinburgh service will run via the West Coast, or stay on the East Coast.
There's a long way to go yet before all this is decided.
The go-ahead for HS2 Phase 1 has not been given yet, and Phase 2 still has to get parliamentary approval.
 

coppercapped

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FirstGroup/Trenitalia and MTR/Guangshen/RENFE.

Stagecoach/Virgin/SNCF, in my opinion the best option, have been disqualified due to the recent pensions debacle with the DfT (although it looks increasingly likely a judicial review is coming). I fail to see any advantages with the two other bidders.
Things have moved on since this post!

Yesterday (31st May) The Times reported that First Group has capitulated to investors’ demands and proposed breaking itself up with plans to turn itself into an exclusively American business, concentrating on its yellow school bus and university and airport shuttles. It strongly signalled that it would run down its rail interests in the UK, probably keeping GWR and TPE until the end of their franchises. However, the SWR operation is in real financial trouble, and it looks as if First and MTR may write off their bonds, and pull out, just like Stagecoach/Virgin did with VTEC.

So, this leads to interesting speculation on the consequences for the West Coast Partnership franchise. As you posted, there were three short-listed bidders:
  1. First Trenitalia West Coast Rail Ltd, a joint venture between FirstGroup (70%) and Italian state operator Trenitalia (30%) — presumably now to withdraw, unless Trenitalia takes it over 100%;
  2. MTR West Coast Partnership Ltd, a joint venture of Hong Kong’s MTR Corp, Guangshen Railway Co and RENFE — will MTR be excluded by the DfT if it hands back the keys at SWR?
  3. West Coast Partnership Ltd, a joint venture between Stagecoach (50%), Virgin (30%) and SNCF (20%) — already excluded by the DfT, with a law suit now underway;
I can foresee a position where the DfT might, at best, have one Chinese/Spanish bidder left for the West Coast franchise and the new HS2 trains being procured for it by the DfT. There won't be any British involvement in the TOC.

Somehow, I think the government might find it a hard sell for the new HS2 line, paid for by British taxpayers, to be run entirely by foreign companies, after a non-competitive bid.

(See also the "Will FirstGroup leave the UK in the near future?" thread).
 
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Japan0913

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In the current HS2 plan,
As you can shorten only about one hour,
I think it is desirable to raise the existing budget.

Save time with HS2

Edinburgh 45 minutes
Glasgow 54 minutes
Newcastle 33 minutes
York 30 minutes
Leeds 52 minutes
Sheffield 46 minutes
East Midlands Hub 51 min
Preston 44 minutes
Liverpool 32 minutes
Manchester 68 minutes
Birmingham 49 minutes

The DfT's latest revised estimates of journey times for some major destinations once the line has been built as far as Leeds and Manchester, set out in the January 2012 document High Speed Rail: by Wikipedia.
 
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LNW-GW Joint

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First Group can't say much about its WCP bid while it is being evaluated (and close to award, apparently).
I would have thought they would wait and see who Dft awards the contract to, and if it is First/Trenitalia they will seek to negotiate acceptable terms.
They might walk away at this point, or offer the majority share or whole bid to Trenitalia (who seem to be keen on UK contracts just now).
Rolling stock procurement is separate from the TOC, as we know.
Who knows how the Stagecoach challenge will turn out, or if it will delay the award.
Then there's the new PM/SoS/cabinet to declare its policy on HS2.
Plenty of scope for further delay...
 

Japan0913

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I think that existing Westcoast franchises like the direct management of a country like LNER until the WCP bid is decided directly by the HS2 operator.

It is fine if you buy only vehicles from a Chinese company,
Relying management of the entire FC to Chinese companies will allow deep intervention by the Chinese government.
We Asians are very cautious and involved in China.

Just because China is far from Britain
If you are not alert and get a loan, you will be in high debt.
Please be careful.
 

The Ham

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But not the final go-ahead (which releases the money for the main construction).
That can still be withheld by the government.
Several of the contenders for PM say they would stop/delay/review HS2.

What will a review show?

Rail growth - was predicted to be ~50% at opening of Phase 1, is currently ~70% for those regions which benefit from phase 1

Spending on existing infrastructure enhancements (so not including HS2, maintenance or new trains) - has grown every year since 2009

Pacer withdrawal - due to happen at least 5 years before any part of HS2 open

Train lengths - in the last 5 years there was supposed to be >3,000 new coaches delivered whilst in the next 5 years (excluding TfW and EMT franchises) a further >2,000 new coaches due to be delivered.

For what other reason could they defer the project without proposing an alternative?
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Politics.
Signalling a wider policy change.
Aping Farage's party policy (whatever it is called this week), or the Greens.
Lack of money.
Lack of supporters.
Poor recent delivery by the rail "establishment" (electrification, new trains, timetables).
Switching investment from south to north (forgetting that the north needs all of HS2).

You know the arguments.
Every time I listen to Any Questions and somebody recommends cancelling HS2, there is a big cheer.
It all depends on the new PM and Chancellor's view, so the risks of cancellation are growing.
 

w1bbl3

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Things have moved on since this post!

However, the SWR operation is in real financial trouble, and it looks as if First and MTR may write off their bonds, and pull out, just like Stagecoach/Virgin did with VTEC.

So, this leads to interesting speculation on the consequences for the West Coast Partnership franchise. As you posted, there were three short-listed bidders:
  1. First Trenitalia West Coast Rail Ltd, a joint venture between FirstGroup (70%) and Italian state operator Trenitalia (30%) — presumably now to withdraw, unless Trenitalia takes it over 100%;
  2. MTR West Coast Partnership Ltd, a joint venture of Hong Kong’s MTR Corp, Guangshen Railway Co and RENFE — will MTR be excluded by the DfT if it hands back the keys at SWR?
  3. West Coast Partnership Ltd, a joint venture between Stagecoach (50%), Virgin (30%) and SNCF (20%) — already excluded by the DfT, with a law suit now underway;

If First and by extension MTR where to bail on SWR that would surely have consequences on the MTR West Coast partnership bid? is there a real possibility that DfT don't actually have a viable bid for WCR?
Awarding the franchise to a consortium where the lead partner pulls out is surely open to legal challenge by the other bidders, even if that don't actually want to win the competition.

The bigger issue here is IMHO how government are going to sort out rail franchising so it works for both the private bidders and the department.
 

Bletchleyite

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If First and by extension MTR where to bail on SWR that would surely have consequences on the MTR West Coast partnership bid? is there a real possibility that DfT don't actually have a viable bid for WCR?
Awarding the franchise to a consortium where the lead partner pulls out is surely open to legal challenge by the other bidders, even if that don't actually want to win the competition.

The bigger issue here is IMHO how government are going to sort out rail franchising so it works for both the private bidders and the department.

It will be interesting to see. Assuming we keep it, moving back to long franchises and "here's what money you're getting, what can you do for that?" type approaches might do well.
 

StaffsWCML

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I am not sure the government is in a position to award a franchise at present. If they do they are even bigger idiots that I first thought.

It was due in June, I expect at least a few months delay whilst the new government is decided and what colour.

That could potentially mean a general election. I presume Corbyn would want to immediate renationalise as much as possible.
 

Japan0913

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Japan0913

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HS2: the UK looks to China
5 DECEMBER 2015
https://www.railway-technology.com/features/featurehs2-the-uk-looks-to-china-4730716/
Although the legislative process for the UK's High-Speed 2 project is not yet complete, Chancellor George Osborne is already trying to woo Chinese investors. What does Asia’s economic powerhouse, which is keen to export its high-speed rail technology, have to offer the UK rail sector?

On a visit to China in September, British Chancellor George Osborne spoke of the growing bond between the two countries. Osborne wants to make China the UK’s second-largest trading partner by 2025, and one key part of this could be China’s involvement in High-Speed 2 (HS2).

Chinese firms have been urged to bid for seven contracts worth £11.8bn in total covering the first phase of the mammoth project, a new high-speed rail (HSR) line that is set to run between London and Birmingham, as well as other infrastructure projects in the north of England.

"We are truly entering a golden era of cooperation between our two countries and it’s crucial that businesses and communities from across the UK feel the full benefit of forging closer economic links with China," said the Chancellor.

The forging of links can be seen in Chinese investment in energy projects, and Osborne now wants to add rail to the chain.

Dr John Disney, a senior lecturer at the Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University, who has also worked as a consultant to the Department for Transport, says: "The government has already announced Chinese investment in the UK nuclear power industry, which is a signal that they are convinced that the Chinese are worthy partners."

Dr Michael Synnott, senior teaching fellow in strategy and international business at the University of Warwick, agrees. "When it comes to infrastructure, it looks like the UK Government is saying that China is the way forward," he says.

China’s appeal
But why is this the case? After Osborne’s announcement, HS2 chief executive Simon Kirby said it was about bringing the "the best technology into the UK".

"Internationally, there are a number of big organisations who have been really successful in high-speed rail," Kirby added in an October interview with the New Civil Engineer (NCE). "We are encouraging relationships between organisations that have delivered on this scale and UK suppliers.

"We are looking for a supply chain that a contractor can convince us is reliable and innovative."

China certainly has the experience of building HSR on a large scale. It has the world’s largest HSR network with over 16,000km of track as of December 2014, all of which has been built since the 200km/h Qinhuangdao – Shenyang HSR line opened in 2003.

"China’s construction costs have been pegged by the World Bank at roughly $17m to $21m per kilometre, compared to $25m to $39m in Europe."
Then there is cost. In its domestic projects, China’s construction costs have been pegged by the World Bank at roughly $17m to $21m per kilometre, compared to $25m to $39m in Europe.

According to Lei Chen, head of the railway control and simulation group at the Birmingham Centre for Railway Research and Education, China’s high-speed lines go "across a large area of the country with significantly different weather, geotechnical conditions and operational environments".

"In my opinion, these railway projects highly promote Chinese railway equipment R&D, system integration capability, railway operation experience and railway engineer education," he explains. "I think collaborations in all these areas could benefit British railway projects such as HS2."

However, he is wary of suggesting that China is the "number one go-to country" for high-speed expertise, adding that "a positive global competition in Britain’s high-speed railway market will be beneficial to the British rail sector".

Whether or not this global competition for HS2 will materialise is as yet unknown, but Synnott says that China’s track record ensures it is best-positioned to deliver the specification of HS2, with speeds of up to 400 km/h under consideration.

"The story of Japan has been lost somewhat and been replaced by – not a mythology, because it’s all real – but this celebration of Chinese progress in HSR. The end result is they know how to build and run fast railways.

"We don’t seem to have the competency to carry through a project anything like HS2. That ability to carry through a big project seems to be a bit beyond us."

Ensuring the UK benefits
If Synnott is correct and Chinese expertise is drafted in to fill this gap, the key, according to Peter Campbell, senior policy manager at the Association for Consultancy and Engineering, is to ensure that the UK workforce benefits.

"The UK Government can and must stipulate as part of [any] deal that the UK’s workforce benefits from the skills developed as part of the investment," he explains.

"What we must do is to ensure we learn from areas of Chinese expertise and at the same time develop our own expertise so that this can be used for future projects."

Campbell’s view rings true with what Simon Kirby told the NCE: "We have some fantastic capability in this country, some great skills and this is a great opportunity.

"However we have not built a greenfield railway of this scale for about 120 years," he said, adding that the project is about "skills and jobs in this country".

The "great opportunity" that Kirby highlighted will also need to benefit UK firms from a business perspective, not just skills.

"It is important that UK SMEs [small and medium-sized enterprises] involved in the rail industry supply chain work together to blow their own trumpets," says Disney.

"I’m sure that they would welcome the opportunity to supply to a Chinese-owned rolling stock manufacturer if the latter won the contract to supply HS2 rolling stock.

"The UK has its own vast railway skills… and we need to ensure that the wealth of that railway expertise is fully utilised."

Warning signs: safety and disillusionment
For all the talk of skills and opportunities, not everyone has welcomed Osborne’s overtures to China with universal praise and applause.

The hybrid bill for phase one of HS2 has not yet been passed, and the timing of Osborne’s announcement has irked some.

Richard Houghton from anti-HS2 campaign group HS2 Action Alliance says: "We weren’t surprised, but we did feel they should stick to the process and allow the hybrid bill to pass law, and then start offering contracts.

"From a hard commercial point of view, it does rather muddy the waters somewhat in the fact that this initially was a British railway for the British regions, which was going to develop our skills."

Using Chinese investment does not mean this won’t be the case; although it is something the government will have to be wary of if China accepts its invitation.

"The UK Government can and must stipulate as part of [any] deal that the UK’s workforce benefits from the skills developed as part of the investment."
As for other risks, Disney highlights the possibility that Chinese contractors will struggle to deal with the UK’s very different operating environment.

"The Chinese work on much faster timescales than the West, especially the UK," he says. "There is, therefore, the fear that they will become disillusioned about the slow progress of HS2 and may withdraw their support before the project reaches fruition."

Safety concerns and past incidents on China’s HSR network have also been highlighted. A collision between two high-speed trains in 2011 in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province resulted in 40 deaths and hundreds of injuries, with the World Bank noting the disaster was attributed to "inadequate testing of a new design of signalling equipment, which lacked proper fail-safe features".

Disney says the HS2 project should wary of this, as "railways in the UK are highly protective of their high safety standards".

China’s desire for HS2
Much of the debate around potential safety concerns is hypothetical, however. At the time of writing, no contracts with Chinese firms have been signed – and then there is the question of whether or not China will want to invest.

"If you look at the Chinese, as they have worked in Africa and other places, they are determined not to get involved with the politics of the host country," explains Synnott. "HS2 is not going to be built without a lot of fuss.

"I suspect there will be quite a lot of fighting in terms of protests. The Chinese might say ‘this could mess up our costs and our image’."

In addition, Zhao Jing, a transportation professor at Beijing Jiatong University, was quoted as saying by NBC News that he doubted that China’s HSR technology "has a bright future in Europe", adding that Europe might protect its market.

The crucial difference is that the UK seems more determined than ever to become China’s premier partner in the West. When all is said and done, that could be the clincher and enough to whet China’s appetite for HS2.

HOW CHINA'S RAILWAYS ARE LEADING TO HIGH-SPEED DEBT:
By Tom Mitchell and Xinning Liu.
AUG 19 2018
https://www.ozy.com/fast-forward/how-chinas-railways-are-leading-to-high-speed-debt/88791
Don't let China take over the UK economy ...
 

StaffsWCML

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All ifs buts and maybes.

With the change of government I can not really see how this bunch of incompetent idiots could make a decision yet.

Most of the Tories going for the leadership are anti HS2. Surely Grayling should be fired in any new cabinet.

There are also the legal cases. It would seem a bad choice to make awards now when nothing is certain.

Of course a Corbyn government could lead to complete renationalisation in the event of a GE.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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No news this morning.
Routine contract decisions might be made and announced while we wait for a new PM and cabinet, but this one is definitely not routine.

Boris looks to be leading the PM competition.
I think Chris Grayling is in his camp, and certainly of his outlook, so rumours of his departure might be premature.

"Nationalisation" is a long way off, and even Corbyn can't destroy private sector contracts overnight.
Besides, he doesn't yet understand what it means, and the Tories might yet change the system radically following Williams.
Awarding a WCP contract now begs all those questions down the track, not to mention being impacted by the status of HS2.
 

Jorge Da Silva

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No news this morning.
Routine contract decisions might be made and announced while we wait for a new PM and cabinet, but this one is definitely not routine.

Boris looks to be leading the PM competition.
I think Chris Grayling is in his camp, and certainly of his outlook, so rumours of his departure might be premature.

"Nationalisation" is a long way off, and even Corbyn can't destroy private sector contracts overnight.
Besides, he doesn't yet understand what it means, and the Tories might yet change the system radically following Williams.
Awarding a WCP contract now begs all those questions down the track, not to mention being impacted by the status of HS2.

Graylings Departure is probably very likely but not certain. A cabinet reshuffle will happen after the next PM is announced and takes office. Though I think the WC Franchise should be delayed until after the Williams Review

Grayling is with Team Boris
 

EE Andy b1

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So maybe not then, again!!:rolleyes:

Our fabulous Government and MPs seem to be in some sort of disarray at the moment for some reason, so nothing gets sorted, it's all a flawed process anyway!

Grayling, hanging on to Johnson, hoping to keep a job of some sort.:frown:

Let's wait for that Williams review and take the WCP back in house.:D

November now then. Sorry! :smile:
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Let's wait for that Williams review and take the WCP back in house.:D

How do you achieve the objective of the WCP franchise competition (DfT announcement when the competition started):
The new West Coast Partnership franchise will provide a strong private sector partner to work with the government, a partner who must combine experience of delivering both conventional and high speed railway operations, transforming customer service through the use of cutting-edge technology

by taking the franchise in-house?

The WCML is one thing, but HS2 is not in NR ownership and is not part of the Williams review.
The government intended to sell the commercial rights to run trains on HS2 to the private sector, like it has done on HS1.
 
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