Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

[hwl]

And another self serving Tory leadership hopeful attempting to jump on the populist bandwagon in this respect. No doubt heavily influenced by the US air and petroleum industry funded climate change denying right wing think tank complex.

HS2 goes through her constituency and her voters aren't happy...

 

[Glenn1969]

I doubt she will make the Final 2. That is IMHO going to be 2 of Johnson, Gove, Hunt and Raab. I suppose I could be wrong though. How many of those four are pro HS2?

 

[6Gman]

I doubt she will make the Final 2. That is IMHO going to be 2 of Johnson, Gove, Hunt and Raab. I suppose I could be wrong though. How many of those four are pro HS2?

Johnson is a populist so will back whatever serves his purposes.

Gove & Hunt are more pragmatic and will probably accept the economic arguments in favour.

Raab - no idea.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

HS2 goes through her constituency and her voters aren't happy...

And yet some of her constituents near Northampton stand to gain significantly from improved services after HS2 takes fast WCML traffic away.

 

[hwl]

Johnson is a populist so will back whatever serves his purposes.

Gove & Hunt are more pragmatic and will probably accept the economic arguments in favour.

Raab - no idea.

Hunt came out as very pro HS2 last week

 

[Yindee8191]

Johnson is a populist so will back whatever serves his purposes.

Gove & Hunt are more pragmatic and will probably accept the economic arguments in favour.

Raab - no idea.

Johnson has come out pretty clearly in favour of scrapping HS2, with Hunt very clearly in support of it. Gove would probably see the benefits as you say. Raab is apparently on the fence about it, but after all the dithering that would happen I doubt he’d have time to scrap it even if he wanted to.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'd say Boris dithers and changes his mind so frequently that it's a complete unknown with him.

As for Raab: According to this Guardian article:

Other MPs are waiting to see the candidates’ position on another vital issue for many Conservatives: HS2. One MP said HS2 was proving a major issue with his colleagues whose constituencies were affected by the high-speed rail route and wanted firm pledges that it would be scrapped.

The MP said Raab was not planning to scrap the scheme and Johnson had “made all the right noises but then only promised a review”.

I think the real danger is that HS2 becomes a major issue amongst Tory MPs and activists (I would guess most Tory members are anti-HS2) and as a result candidates who might privately support HS2 end up promising to review or scrap it, just in order to get votes in the leadership election. If that happens, then HS2 could be in trouble.

 

[The Ham]

I'd say Boris dithers and changes his mind so frequently that it's a complete unknown with him.

As for Raab: According to this Guardian article:



I think the real danger is that HS2 becomes a major issue amongst Tory MPs and activists (I would guess most Tory members are anti-HS2) and as a result candidates who might privately support HS2 end up promising to review or scrap it, just in order to get votes in the leadership election. If that happens, then HS2 could be in trouble.

The problem is that such an approach could harm the Tories at the next election, in that it doesn't take much to have lots of images of full or nearly full trains and questions being asked about why the project to fix it hasn't gone ahead. The swing in marginal seats doesn't need to be by very much, so a relatively small number of rail users could swing it towards someone who will support HS2.

 

[Facing Back]

The problem is that such an approach could harm the Tories at the next election, in that it doesn't take much to have lots of images of full or nearly full trains and questions being asked about why the project to fix it hasn't gone ahead. The swing in marginal seats doesn't need to be by very much, so a relatively small number of rail users could swing it towards someone who will support HS2.

I'm not sure that its a general election issue as such.

I don't think Shires in the south who "don't benefit" and don't want it are going to desert the Conservatives in droves simply because of HS2. These tend not to be swing seats as a rule and the Tories can count on their vote - although Brexit might throw that into doubt....

Likewise, I don't think that labour constituencies in the North who do want it are going to switch to the Tories because they support HS2.

I know the support is a lot more nuanced than that - and I respect that many people here don't agree that there is support in the North for HS2.

I do really believe that it could have a serious influence on the Tory leadership election though - personally I think that's much more of a risk. Both getting the support of MPs to get to the last 2, then getting the vote of party members, many of whom live in non-HS2 receiving areas.

 

[The Ham]

I'm not sure that its a general election issue as such.

I don't think Shires in the south who "don't benefit" and don't want it are going to desert the Conservatives in droves simply because of HS2. These tend not to be swing seats as a rule and the Tories can count on their vote - although Brexit might throw that into doubt....

Likewise, I don't think that labour constituencies in the North who do want it are going to switch to the Tories because they support HS2.

I know the support is a lot more nuanced than that - and I respect that many people here don't agree that there is support in the North for HS2.

I do really believe that it could have a serious influence on the Tory leadership election though - personally I think that's much more of a risk. Both getting the support of MPs to get to the last 2, then getting the vote of party members, many of whom live in non-HS2 receiving areas.

The thought was more that the marginal seats (the ones which tend to swing one way or the other) could, if they are in an area where they find that they can't use the trains so easily because HS2 hasn't gone ahead, influence the outcome of a general election.

Such swing seats could be won or lost on a few tens of people, so small changes in policy which impact individuals can make a big difference.

 

[Captain Bigwig]

The thought was more that the marginal seats (the ones which tend to swing one way or the other) could, if they are in an area where they find that they can't use the trains so easily because HS2 hasn't gone ahead, influence the outcome of a general election.

Such swing seats could be won or lost on a few tens of people, so small changes in policy which impact individuals can make a big difference.

Yes, but public transport always tends to be very low down voters' lists of priorities when it comes to elections. The only time I can think of where public transport may have swung a few seats is with Beeching in 1964, but even that probably didn't swing more than a handful. There are just bigger priorities for most people in general elections.

 

[jfowkes]

The problem is that such an approach could harm the Tories at the next election, in that it doesn't take much to have lots of images of full or nearly full trains and questions being asked about why the project to fix it hasn't gone ahead. The swing in marginal seats doesn't need to be by very much, so a relatively small number of rail users could swing it towards someone who will support HS2.

Not sure about this. The perception that the general public have is not "HS2 will fix overcrowding". The perception seems to be more like "HS2 is making overcrowding worse by taking money away from 'normal' trains".

This perception is why we're on page 90 of this thread.

 

[Facing Back]

Not sure about this. The perception that the general public have is not "HS2 will fix overcrowding". The perception seems to be more like "HS2 is making overcrowding worse by taking money away from 'normal' trains".

This perception is why we're on page 90 of this thread.

I was on a stag do in Newcastle at the weekend and 8 of us went on various trains.

As it invariably does, the conversation got around to HS2 - mainly because a bunch of the guys don't use the train and were impressed by how nice the trip up from Grantham was on LNER. But as far as that part of the "general public" was concerned, their main concern with it was a vanity project designed solely to make my weekly trip faster to London from Manchester.

When we had a 15 minute conversation on the capacity issue south of rugby, the difficulty (impossibility?) of tactical changes fixing that, and that if we agree we need a new track, lets build a modern one they were all very easily convinced. Explaining the difference between capital and operational/revenue spend after 6 pints of newcastle brown ale was more of a fine art but it wasn't all that hard to convince then.

 

[jfowkes]

Man, if I ever have a stag do I will demand at least an hour of demanding, full-on chat about public infrastructure policy. There will be powerpoints.

 

[Japan0913]

It may be impossible to open the entire HS2, still
The UK should establish a dedicated route to Manchester as soon as possible, and open existing routes.
The largest aorta in the United Kingdom,
London-Birmingham-Manchester should have enough budget to make it a world-class high-speed rail route.

 

[Facing Back]

Man, if I ever have a stag do I will demand at least an hour of demanding, full-on chat about public infrastructure policy. There will be powerpoints.

I'm a management consultant. Powerpoint was a distinct option.

 

[The Ham]

Not sure about this. The perception that the general public have is not "HS2 will fix overcrowding". The perception seems to be more like "HS2 is making overcrowding worse by taking money away from 'normal' trains".

This perception is why we're on page 90 of this thread.

However that's not the reality, as the graph shows:

View media item 3339
Even allowing for the Network Rail spending on Crossrail, which I believe is less than £3bn out of the circa £25bn spent since 2009, there's still a significant amount been spent on enhancements* to the existing network.

* Enhancements does not include maintenance, New Trains or HS2.

 

[Japan0913]

HS2 to link with Northern Powerhouse line.
7 JUN 2019 the times.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3772cfd8-88a3-11e9-80a7-7034275c0a1b

HS2 trains will be able to run across northern England under plans for a fully integrated high-speed network.

The government said yesterday that HS2, the new north-south line, would connect into a proposed east-west route across the Pennines, enabling trains to run directly between more cities.
It represents official confirmation that HS2 will be integrated with “Northern Powerhouse Rail” — the line proposed to link cities including Liverpool, Manchester, Bradford, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle and Hull.・・・・・・
（Below, paid articles）

Northern Powerhouse Rail（NPR）
https://transportforthenorth.com/northern-powerhouse-rail/


Is linear improvement to Newcastle?
The TPE franchise is completely swallowed.

 

[quantinghome]

Is linear improvement to Newcastle?

Can you explain what you are asking?

The TPE franchise is completely swallowed.

Again I'm not sure what you mean by this. Are you suggesting this is a good thing or a bad thing?

 

[Japan0913]

More detailed articles. guardian.

Northern firms throw weight behind HS2 and new east-west rail line
Businesses overwhelmingly support plans for two new high-speed lines, research finds

Thu 6 Jun 2019　
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...weight-behind-hs2-and-new-east-west-rail-line

The vast majority of businesses in the north of England want the government to continue with HS2 and to build a new east-west link from Liverpool to Hull, research suggests.

A total of 5,000 businesses of all sizes were asked for their view on the benefits to business of Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR), a £39bn transpennine rail line that would link to HS2, the hotly contested high-speed route from London to Leeds and Manchester via Birmingham.

Various Conservative party leadership contenders, including Boris Johnson, have pledged to scrap HS2 if they win. But northern businesses overwhelmingly support both HS2 and NPR, according to the findings set out in a report, Backing Northern Powerhouse Rail, by the law firm Addleshaw Goddard and the Northern Powerhouse Partnership thinktank.

The research found:

99% of firms believe NPR would raise productivity in the northern powerhouse zone.
85% believe NPR would increase inward investment.
75% say a commitment to deliver NPR would help them to make investment decisions.
62% would recruit from a wider geographic area.
43% would look to expand or relocate to encourage growth.
The government is considering a strategic outline business case for NPR. The line would increase the number of people able to reach four or more northern cities within an hour from 10,000 today to 1.3 million, according to its architects, Transport for the North (TfN).
TfN’s chairman, John Cridland, said: “Ambitions on this scale aren’t delivered overnight. We need the communities and businesses of the north to continue championing the critical need for such investment as the programme gains momentum.”

The rail minister, Andrew Jones, said the government should build both high-speed lines. “It’s brilliant to see widespread business support for NPR and a recognition of the importance of linking it to HS2. When it comes to NPR and HS2, it isn’t an either/or situation. The north needs both to increase capacity, transform connectivity and unlock economic potential.”

The government has announced proposed tweaks to the second phase of HS2, running from Birmingham to Leeds via the East Midlands, and from Crewe to Manchester. The refinements include additional rail infrastructure and junctions between planned NPR and HS2 routes.

The transport minister, Nusrat Ghani, said the proposals, now out for consultation, marked “another major milestone for HS2 … to ensure that the route offers the best value for taxpayers’ money as well as minimising disruption for residents and impacts on the environment.”

Two proposed junctions could allow the HS2 line into Manchester to be used as part of NPR and open up a new route between Manchester and Liverpool.

On Wednesday Liz Truss, the chief secretary to the Treasury, said her department was taking a serious look “for the first time” at whether HS2 could be delivered within its £56bn budget. She told the House of Lords economic affairs committee that the next prime minister would decide whether to go ahead with planned infrastructure projects, including HS2.

In March a report from the left-leaning New Economics Foundation said 40% of the benefits of HS2 would go to London and that the £56bn budget would be better spent on upgrading the existing network and smaller-scale local projects.

 

[Aictos]

One would hope that both projects can be completed as they compliment each other and will deliver much needed capacity upgrades across the UK network.

 

[Japan0913]

Japan0913 said: ↑
Is linear improvement to Newcastle?

Can you explain what you are asking?
Japan0913 said: ↑
The TPE franchise is completely swallowed.
Again I'm not sure what you mean by this. Are you suggesting this is a good thing or a bad thing?

There are too many curves from Darlington to Newcastle.
Does NPR improve this?
This new plan completely overlaps with TPE's sales channel.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Early development is taking place on line speed improvements and track alterations for Sheffield and Leeds to Hull and Leeds to Newcastle. Probably on Sheffield Manchester too but I haven't heard much about that whereas the others I have. I sense the Hull line may prove the hardest.

 

[The Ham]

The 40% of benefits for London comes from the New Economics Foundation report, however if you read their report the 40% is based on the arrival/departure points.

As such 60% of travellers will be starting/ending their journeys not in London. Which even allowing for the 40% being at the other end of those London journeys that's 20% of all journeys will not have either a start/end point in London.

Given that the assumption is that there'll be 110 million passengers a year that's 22 million journeys, that's nearly the same as the current 25 million who currently travel between London and the West Midlands or the North West.

That's no small market.

 

[geoffk]

East West Rail is planned to be a conventional line which will have intermediate stations giving local people along the route access to it, something HS2 won't do directly even if it does improve the service on lines that are relatively close. In addition, EWR does something new by giving access across that region and therefore can be seen to people as something better since it can be seen as helping local people and not just people in big cities like London and Birmingham

Should there be an interchange station between HS2 and East-West rail? Would this reduce opposition to HS2 by those who say it's no direct benefit to them?

 

[6Gman]

Should there be an interchange station between HS2 and East-West rail? Would this reduce opposition to HS2 by those who say it's no direct benefit to them?

Yes (in my opinion).

No.

 

[camflyer]

Should there be an interchange station between HS2 and East-West rail? Would this reduce opposition to HS2 by those who say it's no direct benefit to them?

While it might sound good in theory, where would you suggest that the HS2/EWR interchange should be? Looking at the maps, the two lines cross near Bicester. Is there really the demand for a HS stop there? Maybe there should be another stop between Birmingham and Old Oak but I would suspect that better candidates could be found.

 

[geoffk]

While it might sound good in theory, where would you suggest that the HS2/EWR interchange should be? Looking at the maps, the two lines cross near Bicester. Is there really the demand for a HS stop there? Maybe there should be another stop between Birmingham and Old Oak but I would suspect that better candidates could be found.

Where the lines cross. This would give access to HS2 from Oxford, Milton Keynes (well Bletchley) and Bedford, and in the future maybe Cambridge.

 

[Polarbear]

I suspect there are a couple of reasons why a HS2/East-West rail interchange isn’t being built.

First, it would be expensive, certainly compared to the likely usage. You would need passing loops on the HS lines & given its location, HS2 trains would most likely not be able to use their full speed potential. Don’t forget that braking distances at the projected speeds for HS2 will be much greater than on the classic network, meaning that any intermediate call would chew up quite a bit of time on schedules, as well as capacity on the Birmingham-London section.

 

[coppercapped]

Where the lines cross. This would give access to HS2 from Oxford, Milton Keynes (well Bletchley) and Bedford, and in the future maybe Cambridge.

I don't see that much traffic for HS2 will go to or come from Oxford via a connection near Calvert.

Oxford already has two direct trains an hour calling at Birmingham International (and on to New Street) without the faff of changing trains. It also has, now, two direct trains to Paddington per hour taking less than an hour which will be faster after December this year and two to Marylebone taking between 62 and 70 minutes depending on the stopping pattern. Again, who wants the faff of changing considering any service calling at the hypothetical interchange station won't run more frequently than every 30 minutes. Before the next one arrives you could be halfway to London...