Fiona Onasanya: Recall petition successful & Labour hold seat after By-Election

[IanD]

Meanwhile an MP who happens to be white, male and right-wing is to face trial for forging expenses receipts, attracting no comment on this forum as far as I can see.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47320171

Feel free to start a thread about it rather than choosing to imply those in this thread are racist.

 

[AlterEgo]

Feel free to start a thread about it rather than choosing to imply those in this thread are racist.

Cracking reply.

 

[Busaholic]

Meanwhile an MP who happens to be white, male and right-wing is to face trial for forging expenses receipts, attracting no comment on this forum as far as I can see.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47320171

To be fair, there's very little one could say about it at this stage other than to record the matter.

 

[Lucan]

Meanwhile an MP who happens to be white, male and right-wing is to face trial for forging expenses receipts, attracting no comment on this forum as far as I can see.

Wow, playing the race card.

Don't worry, I will lay into anyone found guilty of falsifying their expenses. I saw the post about Davies but had decided to await more info before comment. But I've gone back to make a indisputable comment now, to keep you happy.

 

[Ken H]

Flynn will be paired so shouldn't make a difference.

Interesting you mention the Speaker: the people of Buckingham haven't had any representation for ten years, and can't change it because tradition is that peopke don't stsnd against the Speaker in a General Election.

Tories and labour dont. But Farage stood there for a GE

 

[A Challenge]

Tories and labour dont. But Farage stood there for a GE

The convention is he stands as 'the speaker seeking re-election', and the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. In 2010, the first time John Bercow stood for election as speaker that was the constituency with the most MPs standing in the country, though only the Greens and UKIP stood in 2015 and in 2017 there was an independent as well.

I believe (though couldn't be certain) the MPs in neighbouring constituencies will take on case work, though you're right they don't get to elect anyone (in theory they could vote out the speaker and then they'd get a new MP)

 

[PR1Berske]

By way of an update, the appeal was rejected today. The Speaker of the House of Commons has triggered the Recall process. Peterborough Council will now need to open a maximum of ten polling places for signatures to be signed. Ten percent of the current electorate must sign the petition to remove Fiona Onasanya from the

 

[thenorthern]

The Appeal has been rejected and the Speaker of the Commons has started the recall petition, since recall petitions were introduced in 2015 only one has happened in North Antrim with Ian Paisley Jr which didn't get enough signatures to proceed. The North Antrim situation was different though as he hadn't been convicted of a crime and it was a safe DUP seat whereby even a by-election was called the DUP would almost certainly have won again meaning that many constituents didn't see the point in signing the recall petition. In Peterborough though it's very different as its a very marginal seat where in 2017 Fiona Onasanya only won by 607 votes to gain the seat from the Conservative party.

 

[PR1Berske]

Result of the petition confirmed tonight:



Number of electors eligible to sign the petition 69,673
Number of electors who validly signed the petition 19,261
Percentage of electors who validly signed the petition 27.64%



The threshold is 10%, therefore Peterborough is accordingly vacated.

A by-election will be called in due course.

 

[Aictos]

Common sense has prevailed in Peterborough, question is who will be the next MP and which party?

 

[PR1Berske]

The full list of candidates for the Peterborough by-election, in ballot paper order.



Paul Bristow (Con)
Lisa Forbes (Lab)
Stephen Goldspink (English Democrats)
Mike Greene (The Brexit Party)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Pierre Kirk (UK European Union Party)
Andrew Moore (no description)
Patrick O'Flynn (SDP)
Dick Rodgers (The Common Good)
Tom Rogers (Christian People's Alliance)
Beki Sellick (Lib Dem)
Bobby Elmo Smith (no description)
Peter Ward (Renew)
Joseph Wells (Green)
John Whitby (UKIP)


"No description" means that the candidate has chosen not to stand as either the candidate of a Registered party, or under the description "independent".

 

[MidlandsChap]

Interesting times. Potentially the first chance to see if there is any genuine interest in the Brexit party. Polls are one thing, but putting a cross in the box is another.

 

[Esker-pades]

15 candidates. Good grief.

 

[Kite159]

15 candidates. Good grief.

And I will predict at least half won't be getting their deposits back

 

[Esker-pades]

And I will predict at least half won't be getting their deposits back

I predict a maximum of 5 will have their deposits returned.

 

[Aictos]

Out of that lot, the only one I would back is the Labour candidate for the simple reason that at the 2015 GE unlike the sitting Conservative MP at the time she was actually quite proactive in the local community getting out and about canvassing asking locals what they wanted.

The sitting MP you never saw unless it was considered important enough

Am surprised at the Lib Dem’s as the usual candidate isn’t sitting this time, so interesting they’ve changed who they want.

I doubt that the European Party will do well as Peterborough IIRC voted strongly for Leave, that’s like turning up at a Corbyn rally and trying to get Pro Labour followers to vote Conservative!

Still at the end of it, it’s going to come between Conservative and Labour as it has done for generations as a swing seat.

 

[A Challenge]

I don't think there are any more than 6 that I could expect to get a deposit back, it may be as low as 4 even, so I think @FelixtheCat is correct.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Any thoughts about the likely winner? In these polarised times and in such a strongly Leave part of the country, there must be a strong chance of the Brexit party taking the seat. Possibly Labour may hold it, but I doubt anyone else stands any chance: My guess is that the Tories will probably lose votes in droves to the Brexit Party. Labour will get split two ways, with some Labour-Leave supporters swapping to Brexit, and some Labour-remain supporters swapping to the LibDems. And who wins will probably come down to how many voters Labour can keep. I would say that Labour's best chance is to keep hammering on the Brexit Party's most obvious weakness: Their lack of policies on anything other than the EU, and the likelihood that, if/when they do get some policies, they'll be pretty right-wing ones.

 

[edwin_m]

Any thoughts about the likely winner? In these polarised times and in such a strongly Leave part of the country, there must be a strong chance of the Brexit party taking the seat. Possibly Labour may hold it, but I doubt anyone else stands any chance: My guess is that the Tories will probably lose votes in droves to the Brexit Party. Labour will get split two ways, with some Labour-Leave supporters swapping to Brexit, and some Labour-remain supporters swapping to the LibDems. And who wins will probably come down to how many voters Labour can keep. I would say that Labour's best chance is to keep hammering on the Brexit Party's most obvious weakness: Their lack of policies on anything other than the EU, and the likelihood that, if/when they do get some policies, they'll be pretty right-wing ones.

That's essentially what worked for Labour in 2017 against the Tories - up to a point. But what was constructively ambiguous enough to be acceptable to reasonable numbers of Leavers and Remainers then probably isn't good enough for either today.

 

[PR1Berske]

The result of the by-election was confirmed early doors this morning:


Peterborough by-election, 2019
LABOUR Hold
Turnout: 48.3 (-18.4 compared to 2017 general election)

Lisa FORBES (Labour) 10,484 [30.9 -17.2]
Mike GREENE (Brexit) 9,801 [28.9 /]
Paul BRISTOW (Conservative) 7,243 [21.4 -25.5]
Beki SELLICK (Liberal Democrat) 4,159 [12.3 +8.9]
Joseph WELLS (Green) 1,035 [3.1 +1.3]
John WHITBY (UKIP) 400 [1.2 /]
Tom RODGERS (Christian Peoples Alliance) 162 [0.5 /]
Stephen GOLDSPINK (English Democrat) 153 [0.5 /]
Patrick O'FLYNN (SDP) 135 [0.4 /]
Alan HOPE (OMRLP) 112 [0.3 /]
Andrew MOORE (-) 101 [0.3 /]
Dick RODGERS (Common Good) 60 [0.2 /]
Peter WARD (Renew) 45 [0.1 /]
Pierre KIRK (UK EU) 25 [0.1 /]
Bobby SMITH (-) 5 [0.0 /]

 

[Typhoon]

Possibly Labour may hold it, but I doubt anyone else stands any chance: My guess is that the Tories will probably lose votes in droves to the Brexit Party. … And who wins will probably come down to how many voters Labour can keep.

Spot on.

John Humphrys has just claimed (Today, Radio 4) that Labour held the seat but only just. Majority up by 76 on a decreased turn out.

Meaning for Brexit Party.?

 

[Aictos]

Excellent news for Peterborough as the Labour candidate was simply the best person for the job and should have been elected last time around instead of Onasanya!

 

[baz962]

I'm gutted for poor old Bob Smith , I would have voted for em.

 

[DarloRich]

Spot on.

John Humphrys has just claimed (Today, Radio 4) that Labour held the seat but only just. Majority up by 76 on a decreased turn out.

Meaning for Brexit Party.?

Meaning: they got very close despite lacking any of the party mechanisms that labour have to get out thier vote.

 

[Running Pete]

All of the main 4(wow) parties could claim they had a good night, equally you can find a way to say they all performed below expectation

 

[Kite159]

Blimey the people of Peterborough are trusting another Labour person after the last one ended up so well...

 

[Typhoon]

Meaning: they got very close despite lacking any of the party mechanisms that labour have to get out thier vote.

Yes, there is no party mechanism but it didn't stop them coming out top in the Euro elections - by some distance (https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/ne...ugh-european-election-results-brexit-16336221), double the Labour vote. I gather that they flooded the city with advertising material including a plane with a banner. Labour also had a disadvantage in that the last MP was imprisoned. I do concede that the boundaries of the city and the constituency may not be the same but there must be a suggestion that people are not quite willing to trust a Farage led party in Westminster. The last Euro elections UKIP swept the board, elected the first UKIP council in Thanet but the same area would not elect the party's highest profile figure to Parliament.

One swallow and all that, but they really will have to hope that another opportunity comes up soon, it is in a highly Brexit area and they sweep home. May be a high profile candidate next time?

 

[Typhoon]

All of the main 4(wow) parties could claim they had a good night, equally you can find a way to say they all performed below expectation

Good summary. Have you thought of a job as an election pundit. More succinct than most.

 

[Typhoon]

Blimey the people of Peterborough are trusting another Labour person after the last one ended up so well...

And one not without controversy: "The Labour candidate also found herself in the spotlight of the media in the run up to the by-election, as it was revealed that she had liked a Facebook video, which said Theresa May has a 'Zionist slave masters agenda'." (https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/local-news/lisa-forbes-labour-mp-peterborough-16391901)

 

[DarloRich]

Yes, there is no party mechanism but it didn't stop them coming out top in the Euro elections - by some distance (https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/ne...ugh-european-election-results-brexit-16336221), double the Labour vote. I gather that they flooded the city with advertising material including a plane with a banner. Labour also had a disadvantage in that the last MP was imprisoned. I do concede that the boundaries of the city and the constituency may not be the same but there must be a suggestion that people are not quite willing to trust a Farage led party in Westminster. The last Euro elections UKIP swept the board, elected the first UKIP council in Thanet but the same area would not elect the party's highest profile figure to Parliament.

One swallow and all that, but they really will have to hope that another opportunity comes up soon, it is in a highly Brexit area and they sweep home. May be a high profile candidate next time?

Labour have a fantastic local mechanism for campaigning. That is what will have win this by election. Brexit party with a supporting organisation simialr to a "normal" party might well have succeeded. At present they rely on the nige factor. Couple that with the dull party mechanisms seen elsewhere and they will be a formidable opposition ( until they nigel moves on to his next host)

Your conparison with the euro elections is not a good one. That was focused on a very narrow issue. Further Labour did not really campaign and absolutely did not deploy that party machinery to turn out the vote. They did for this by election.