Virgin West Coast Open Access Application

[Muenchener]

My take on the application is that this is part of a strategy to remain as a TOC post the commencement of the WCP. It is unlikely this application would have been made if they were part of the winning WCP bid.

There maybe further OA submissions in the coming months as the strategy evolves.

Clearly; Virgin Trains have a desire to remain in the industry.

 

[MDB1images]

The cynic in me days it's a typical Virgin/Stagecoach reaction to when something doesn't go the way they planned.

However.....
If free paths are found,
If new trains can be built in time,
If new staff can be found, and trained in time.
If the Airline style pre purchased only ticketing works.
If it doesn't effect the business plans of whoever operates the services after Virgin......then it might be systems go.

Lots of ifs, suppose one more If would be how serious long term would they be to this especially as they wouldn't be the dominant operator.
Interesting times.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What's notable is that they seem to be stating that they won't go airline-style in disruption (i.e. tell you to go away), they will allow standing if there is a cancellation, but with a full refund for anyone who does have to stand.

This is likely to be a very popular policy provided it is reasonably reliable.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pd...trains-open-access-application-2019-06-10.pdf

Here is the application

The proposed service pattern between London Euston and Liverpool Lime Street is as follows (subject to timetable development & path validation with Network Rail):
Down Direction - 13 trains (forming an hourly service)
First service 06:36 from London Euston, last service from London Euston 21:36. Our aspiration is for a sub-2h 30m journey time, including station calls. No services from London Euston in the evening peak period.
Up Direction – 11 trains (forming an hourly service)
First service 08:13 from Liverpool Lime Street, last service from Liverpool Lime Street 20:13. Our aspiration is for a sub-2h 30m journey time, including station calls.”

Virgin Trains Ltd is in discussions with various rolling stock leasing agents regarding the use of optimal rolling stock with the capacity and capability (e.g.125mph operations) required to operate services on the West Coast Main-line and its periphery routes.

 

[700007]

Is this simply an attempt by Virgin to stay in the West Coast market by any means now? I feel like this is an 'attack' on London Northwestern Railway, who have seen huge success with the Trent Valley services, and their launch of direct London to Liverpool trains last month with advances of £12 one way. It is also a future attack on the future West Coast Partnership operator, using knowledge that they have learnt during their 20 years of operating the same franchise - it can be deduced that London to Liverpool may be one of the most money lucrative and profitable markets they currently operate on and acts as a cash cow to the franchise.

I don't know where they will fit the paths in and what stock they will use that is tilting, 125 mph. Could it be redundant Hull Trains 180s that will be overhauled (possibly with tilting functions if they're willing to pay for this and it works out to be cheaper than new) and maintained by Alstom? However raises the issue of diesel under the wires which I imagine would incur a heavier track access charge if I understand it correctly (please correct if I am wrong). Only existing stock I can think of that would work but even then needs some work.

My two cents on this, the impression I am reading is a mixture of things. They're clearly desperate to stay on the West Coast mainline. They're smart for using knowledge they have accumulated for 20 years to plan and achieve this. They're also smart in trying to appeal to irregular 'I am off to the other side of the country to see my nan this Bank Holiday' sort of customer who adores airline style travelling and is more likely a car driver. They're however coming across as heavily unrealistic with their expectations that they will be enforcing reservations on literally every train and could lose out on walk up customers particularly on quiet trains. Also unrealistic they haven't any stock at all to do this officially speaking.

This will be an interesting and clearly political development, potentially a very expensive one but I wait with an open mind to see what the outcome of this is.

 

[Bletchleyite]

could lose out on walk up customers particularly on quiet trains

That might well depend on what happens with the fares review. If a move is made to single-fare pricing, people who think they might use those services will simply buy a single outward and buy their return half when they know what train they're going to use if there's a seat free then.

 

[transmanche]

Is this simply an attempt by Virgin to stay in the West Coast market by any means now?

I notice that OAA has been made by Virgin Trains Ltd (a dormant company) and not West Coast Trains Ltd (the current ICWC franchisee).

However, both companies are subsidiaries of Virgin Rail Holdings Ltd, the current Virgin 51%/Stagecoach 49% vehicle rather than the new Stagecoach 50%/SNCF 30%/Virgin 20% vehicle bidding for the West Coast Partnership.

 

[StaffsWCML]

I will be pleased if they maintain some presence and potentially give competition to which ever operator ends up running the WCML. There should be proper competition on our networks, and I hope it would drive up standards instead of us having to settle for 2nd best all the time.

Having experience the garbage served up by their supposed competitors, Virgin offer a very decent service on the WCML. I would be surprised if First or MTR could deliver such a competent service.

People say it is just a 'change of branding' but that is no true, better management and brand ethos sets them apart from much of the dross we have on our railways.

They are by no means perfect but they are notably better than most.

 

[option]

The Supporting infrastructure for this will make it very difficult for it to make money 2 tph existing outside the national rail system would struggle to make money due to the high back office costs per train

I Don't know but until recently Heathrow express made a loss despite its high ticket prices and a service that was double the frequency of this one.

Your assuming that their cost base has to be the same as any other operator.
If they have no station staff & use their own e-tickets only, they could cut quite a few costs out.
If they use rolling stock that's same/very similar as to what is already maintained in the area, then those costs might be reduced.
They could be planning to lease directly from a manufacturer, again that might reduce costs.


HE actually make an operating profit, the loss for 2016 was due to changes to intangibles.

 

[david252]

A possible development on the WCML...

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/could-soon-two-fast-london-16407336

That would be an incredible boost for Tamworth as at present very few Virgin trains stop there only 3 in the morning and one late evening southbound and about 5 northbound in the evening

 

[Bletchleyite]

That would be an incredible boost for Tamworth as at present very few Virgin trains stop there only 3 in the morning and one late evening southbound and about 5 northbound in the evening

What's wrong with the LNR service other than the overcrowding that 8-car working should end?

 

[Esker-pades]

What's wrong with the LNR service other than the overcrowding that 8-car working should end?

LNWR services take longer. 1h37m compared to 1h07m/1h09m.

Personally, I find Pendolinos more comfortable than the 350s.

 

[ag51ruk]

The proposed timetable is strange - no arrivals in London before 1030, no departures in the evening peak won't win them much business travel. And what happens to the 2 trains per day that run north but not south? Perhaps the proposal is 5 coach trains, with 2 southbound trains doubled up.

Virgin may well have already got a price for additional tilting rolling stock as part of their WCP bid (if they had intended to improve any frequencies or replace Voyagers/strengthen other services pre HS2)

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

LNWR services take longer. 1h37m compared to 1h07m/1h09m.

Personally, I find Pendolinos more comfortable than the 350s.

Pendolinos are a huge upgrade from 350s and the Trent Valley stations don’t see enough of them or other quality fast services. This would be good for those stations if it is approved.

 

[Agent_Squash]

At last; Virgin embrace the true spirit of privatisation. The only downside - it's right after they've been messed up by franchising!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I'm surprised the 350/2 fleet hasn't come up yet - it will be spare by 2021 and is ideal for a Virgin experiment, before a tilting fleet could be built.
The previous VT Liverpool application was rejected more for procedural reasons than capacity.
Also, we don't know what the WCP franchise will deliver.
Virgin will be able to keep the ORR/NR pot boiling for a couple of years on this one.
Commercial disruption of the first order after being given the run-around by DfT.

 

[vlad]

My issue with it is simply that Virgin are by their nature a superb PR machine. I remember the last time when they thought First was taking Virgin's cash cow and travelling in first class we were subjected to the not so subtle Virgin-ism's in first class of miniatures of port being served with the cheese on the dinner service and ice creams being given out - all so we knew how wonderful Virgin was.

None of which is now available any more, so I can't help feeling they stopped doing that for a reason as well....

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm surprised the 350/2 fleet hasn't come up yet - it will be spare by 2021 and is ideal for a Virgin experiment, before a tilting fleet could be built.

For all they aren't bad units and would be even better with the seats swapped for 2+2, I doubt 350/2s really fit Virgin's image.

 

[700007]

For all they aren't bad units and would be even better with the seats swapped for 2+2, I doubt 350/2s really fit Virgin's image.

Agree whole heartedly with your point. Brilliant stuff if so as I love the Desiro range but Virgin is the type of company to go flat out using trains that are 'the next level up' and are purposely built intercity trains and look like it.

If they use the exact same train that is, and in this case, was being used by one of their primary competitors, West Midlands Trains, passengers (and of course enthusiasts too!) will ask questions what the distinction is between the two and why Virgin is trying to add glam to something more easily available on the same route for a competitive price with more flexibility?

Also doesn't help that in all its intents and purposes, at the end of the day the 350 is supposed to be a commuter and at a stretch regional train even if it does do long-distance intercity style work just by the nature of the timetable they operate on. But would still prefer one over most stock!

 

[Chester1]

If Grand Central's WCML service does not go ahead then there are 2tph of off peak only paths available on the WCML, using up all remaining capacity. It would make the timetable less reliable though. They would probably need a mini fleet of 8 units which would be expensive to order but more viable than Grand Central's original plan to order new tilting stock. Liverpool is a bigger market than Blackpool and there is a slightly bigger economy of scale to VT's plan. Alstom's facility next to the WCML near Widnes could potentially build new tilting stock and could certainly maintain a VT mini fleet. The off peak only fare revenue may be offset by not needing to pay any premiums to the DfT. I am a bit skeptical that it will pass the abstraction test but if it is allowed it could be financially viable.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

If Grand Central's WCML service does not go ahead then there are 2tph of off peak only paths available on the WCML, using up all remaining capacity. It would make the timetable less reliable though. They would probably need a mini fleet of 8 units which would be expensive to order but more viable than Grand Central's original plan to order new tilting stock. Liverpool is a bigger market than Blackpool and there is a slightly bigger economy of scale to VT's plan. Alstom's facility next to the WCML near Widnes could potentially build new tilting stock and could certainly maintain a VT mini fleet. The off peak only fare revenue may be offset by not needing to pay any premiums to the DfT. I am a bit skeptical that it will pass the abstraction test but if it is allowed it could be financially viable.

Great North Western Railway you mean? It has been approved and rolling stock should now not be an issue with some of the 91's available by the end of the year.

 

[Chester1]

Great North Western Railway you mean? It has been approved and rolling stock should now not be an issue with some of the 91's available by the end of the year.

It will be branded Grand Central now. They still haven't announced a deal yet with less than 6 months until the latest start date.

 

[LeylandLen]

BBC NWT reported that a Chinese company , Guangshen Railway,could run the new service with the new Virgin company.

Also , I seem to remember that another Open Access company applied to run a new WCML service from Blackpool,but Network
Rail stipulated it could only run as far as Queens Park (its on LO south of Wilsden Juntion) due to lack of paths towards Euston.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It will be branded Grand Central now. They still haven't announced a deal yet with less than 6 months until the latest start date.

GC is Arriva, no? Is there perhaps an opportunity there for Virgin to buy them up (given that DB seemingly want to sell some stuff at the moment) and use the units and paths for their new proposal instead?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

BBC NWT reported that a Chinese company could run, with Virgn, the new proposed Liverpool to Londonit could .
The name of the Chinese company began with a G, thats all I can remember.

Also , I seem to remember that another Open Access company applied to run a new WCML service from Blackpool,but Network
Rail stipulated it could only run as far as Queens Park (its on LO south of Wilsden Juntion) due to lack of paths towards Euston.

Might be the old application I.e. the 2015 one not the 2018 one.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

GC is Arriva, no? Is there perhaps an opportunity there for Virgin to buy them up (given that DB seemingly want to sell some stuff at the moment) and use the units and paths for their new proposal instead?

GC and GNWR are both Arriva (which is up for sale). Are you suggesting Virgin buy Arriva’s Grand Central?

 

[Bletchleyite]

GC and GNWR are both Arriva (which is up for sale). Are you suggesting Virgin buy Arriva’s Grand Central?

Yes, then use the paths and stock for this Liverpool service. Possibly close down the North East bit if it isn't making money, keep it if it is (and they can compete with LNER too )

 

[Aictos]

Agree whole heartedly with your point. Brilliant stuff if so as I love the Desiro range but Virgin is the type of company to go flat out using trains that are 'the next level up' and are purposely built intercity trains and look like it.

If they use the exact same train that is, and in this case, was being used by one of their primary competitors, West Midlands Trains, passengers (and of course enthusiasts too!) will ask questions what the distinction is between the two and why Virgin is trying to add glam to something more easily available on the same route for a competitive price with more flexibility?

Also doesn't help that in all its intents and purposes, at the end of the day the 350 is supposed to be a commuter and at a stretch regional train even if it does do long-distance intercity style work just by the nature of the timetable they operate on. But would still prefer one over most stock!

Yes but Virgin Trains could fit a more IC interior to the Class 350/2s that’s more suitable for their operations even to the extend of moving 1st to one end of the unit instead of the daft middle of the unit they are now.

Point of question though, do the Class 350s have any vehicle which doesn’t have any major equipment on?

If so, could the fleet be reformed into 5/6 carriage trains for the new operator?

 

[Japan0913]

BBC NWT reported that a Chinese company , Guangshen Railway,could run the new service with the new Virgin company.

Also , I seem to remember that another Open Access company applied to run a new WCML service from Blackpool,but Network
Rail stipulated it could only run as far as Queens Park (its on LO south of Wilsden Juntion) due to lack of paths towards Euston.

Might be the old application I.e. the 2015 one not the 2018 one.

Are you confirmed?
When Xi Jinping had already visited the UK in 2015, was it true that the rumor was promised to run a high-speed railway?

 

[MotCO]

I, too, am bemused by the fact that you have 13 trains going south, yet only 11 going north. At some stage, all the trains will be in London .

Seriously though, is this an early shot across the bows for any other operator thinking about making use of the capacity freed up once HS2 is running?