Northern Pacer Withdrawals - Info?

[61653 HTAFC]

Having been on the 170 training course 5 months ago, coupling of either a 142 or 144 to a 170 is a definite no, will never happen, either in service or ECS. When first introduced you could couple up to a 158 without question any other 15x required permission from maintenance, this is now relaxed and any 15x can couple to a 170.

If a situation arises where a 170 fails in an awkward location and the nearest or only available unit is a 142 or 144, I'd expect permission would be granted for it in that situation. I can think of one occasion in the past where a Pacer rescued a Turbostar, and that involved units from different TOCs.

 

[Jozhua]

If a situation arises where a 170 fails in an awkward location and the nearest or only available unit is a 142 or 144, I'd expect permission would be granted for it in that situation. I can think of one occasion in the past where a Pacer rescued a Turbostar, and that involved units from different TOCs.

Probably more likely to work the other way round

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Probably more likely to work the other way round

One would certainly expect so!

 

[Bertie the bus]

At today's press launch of the 195s the Northern representative was asked a straight yes/no will all the Pacers be withdrawn by the end of the year question. The answer was they will start getting withdrawn with the introduction of the new trains.

Despite all the assertions that Pacers have to be, and will be, gone by the end of the year I think we can take that as confirmation they won't.

 

[darloscott]

At today's press launch of the 195s the Northern representative was asked a straight yes/no will all the Pacers be withdrawn by the end of the year question. The answer was they will start getting withdrawn with the introduction of the new trains.

Despite all the assertions that Pacers have to be, and will be, gone by the end of the year I think we can take that as confirmation they won't.

I don't see any way they can be to be honest... though I certainly don't think we will be at the same level we are today by end of December...

 

[Jozhua]

I don't see any way they can be to be honest... though I certainly don't think we will be at the same level we are today by end of December...

Probably end up with more

Wouldn't be surprised if Graylings last act as transporr minister is to cancel the 195 and 331 fleet.

 

[Paul_10]

At today's press launch of the 195s the Northern representative was asked a straight yes/no will all the Pacers be withdrawn by the end of the year question. The answer was they will start getting withdrawn with the introduction of the new trains.

Despite all the assertions that Pacers have to be, and will be, gone by the end of the year I think we can take that as confirmation they won't.

Despite that, I think there could be a strong possibility of some pacers being withdrawn next week, especially if the new trains bed in well. If none get withdrawn quite soon, you think will they ever be withdrawn!

Any Northern insiders got any information when the first batch of pacers will go off lease?

 

[Mogster]

From Oxford Road to Wigan Wallgate we had a 4 car set this evening. I see at least a 2 car set every day. The things are in serious heavy use still, there doesn’t seem to be any sign of them being left idle. Northern just don’t seem to have anything else to use.

I find it very hard to believe they’ll be all gone by December.

 

[Chester1]

From Oxford Road to Wigan Wallgate we had a 4 car set this evening. I see at least a 2 car set every day. The things are in serious heavy use still, there doesn’t seem to be any sign of them being left idle. Northern just don’t seem to have anything else to use.

I find it very hard to believe they’ll be all gone by December.

There is no sign of them being left idle because the new units haven't entered service yet. Northern have just announced the first 9 class 195 units will enter service on Monday with monthly batches over the next year. This seems to indicate they are will try to catch up with the original timetable by introducing units in larger batches. Another 5 X 5 batches would approximately catch up for January 1st. Getting 9 out of 61 X 195s into service in one go will be a big step forward, especially if 3 coach sets. Pacer withdrawal will be determined by the roll out. 769 delays could probably be dealt with by derogations for 153s for use with compliant units and shuffling them and 150s around to fit what can work specific lines.

If the introduction goes well then Northern will want to cut leasing costs quickly and TfW might get the 8 units rumoured.

 

[driver_m]

Is a 3 car 195 a direct replacement for 2 pacers or just one? Only asking because now that 124 is on Edge Hill, that’s going to be a sizeable chunk of units that can be withdrawn once they can get them in service and covering their daily diagrams. There aren’t many 2 car sets being sent through Edge Hill, but there are plenty of the 3 car variants coming through.

 

[darloscott]

The initial tranche of 7 diagrams should (I think!) replace 4x 158 and 4x 156, so potentially 8 Pacers withdrawn there.

 

[Killingworth]

If I were managing the Northern fleet I'd have a number of priorities between now and 31st December.

1. Get as many new trains into service as possible, and ensure crews are fully trained to operate them.

2. Get in all the promised cascaded stock as soon as possible.

3. Get all the old units that are to be retained fully refurbished as soon as possible.

4. Hold on to any units to be cascaded for as long as possible.

5. Cover units away for refurbishment by fully utilising the oldest and most reliable units available for as long as possible.

6. Ensure no Pacers leave until 31st December unless totally satisfied that all planned services can be run with full length trains and there are reserves for planned maintenance
and a further contingency reserve for all the things that can go wrong.

I would not say in June that I'd never, in any circumstances, use a Pacer in 2020 on the basis that too many things could go wrong. However, privately I'd be moving heaven and earth to display a few of the most clapped out Pacers being withdrawn very soon! There must be a few that are very near the point when further repairs are no longer economic. The rest will be working very hard for their last 6 months.

 

[Chester1]

If I were managing the Northern fleet I'd have a number of priorities between now and 31st December.

1. Get as many new trains into service as possible, and ensure crews are fully trained to operate them.

2. Get in all the promised cascaded stock as soon as possible.

3. Get all the old units that are to be retained fully refurbished as soon as possible.

4. Hold on to any units to be cascaded for as long as possible.

5. Cover units away for refurbishment by fully utilising the oldest and most reliable units available for as long as possible.

6. Ensure no Pacers leave until 31st December unless totally satisfied that all planned services can be run with full length trains and there are reserves for planned maintenance
and a further contingency reserve for all the things that can go wrong.

I would not say in June that I'd never, in any circumstances, use a Pacer in 2020 on the basis that too many things could go wrong. However, privately I'd be moving heaven and earth to display a few of the most clapped out Pacers being withdrawn very soon! There must be a few that are very near the point when further repairs are no longer economic. The rest will be working very hard for their last 6 months.

The regular comments on this thread that they won't go highlight that the importance of very publicly getting rid of a batch! Hopefully in the next month or so.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

6. Ensure no Pacers leave until 31st December unless totally satisfied that all planned services can be run with full length trains and there are reserves for planned maintenance

Does your use of the word "ensure" mean that Angel Trains will have been fully made aware of such an operational scenario?

 

[Geeves]

Northern still have alot of units OOS around the country under various modification works not to mention all the day to day breakdowns so it would be madness to start withdrawing them straight away on the 1st of July. Another thing to think about is how many units have the 319s released only for us to be seeing constant short forms everywhere... still! It was also mentioned by another poster that Northern are not very confident about how the 195s will perform during the winter. Expect good old faithfuls to be coming out the sidings to rescue Northern from the sh*t again!

 

[Paul_10]

Northern still have alot of units OOS around the country under various modification works not to mention all the day to day breakdowns so it would be madness to start withdrawing them straight away on the 1st of July. Another thing to think about is how many units have the 319s released only for us to be seeing constant short forms everywhere... still! It was also mentioned by another poster that Northern are not very confident about how the 195s will perform during the winter. Expect good old faithfuls to be coming out the sidings to rescue Northern from the sh*t again!

I do expect a few will be withdrawn in early July if indeed all 9 diagrams are operated by new trains. As I say, there be a reason why it was planned to be a phased withdrawal of almost 2 years, clearly they are at least a year behind scheldue on that.

It will be interesting whether it be 142s or 144s that will retire first given that in the initial plan I think it was the 2 car 144s set to leave first.

 

[Killingworth]

Does your use of the word "ensure" mean that Angel Trains will have been fully made aware of such an operational scenario?

As I'm not managing the Northern fleet I can't say, but if I were I'd be having discrete conversations with them about the whole situation fairly frequently. In any case I'd guess Angel Trains will be very well aware of the position and will be checking with all their customers as a matter of routine. Neither side will wish to discuss every detail of every confidential conversation with the world at large.

 

[Chris217]

I wish nothing but good luck on the
success of 195s,but let's have them ALL in service before ANY Pacer withdrawals.
Anything less would be premature especially if things go wrong.
Having nothing to fall back on is not ideal if the worst ever happens.

 

[PomWombat]

Is a 3 car 195 a direct replacement for 2 pacers or just one? Only asking because now that 124 is on Edge Hill, that’s going to be a sizeable chunk of units that can be withdrawn once they can get them in service and covering their daily diagrams. There aren’t many 2 car sets being sent through Edge Hill, but there are plenty of the 3 car variants coming through.

On the Harrogate line, 3-car class 170s have taken over the roles that used to be populated with 2x 2-car units - whether that was pacer, sprinter or a mix. They cope much better, in peak hours, and of course get short-formed much less.

They're better for sitting, and with doors at thirds, they seem to persuade standing customers to move down the aisle more. Or perhaps it offers better grab-handles than the 150s and 14X. The vestibules offer more standing room anyway.

Dwell times are better, and combined with the lack of short-forms, they're better at keeping to timetable - a 10 minute delay here means 2x as many people trying to board, which just pushed the old trains later still. There's still standing from Horsforth into Leeds, but there's room to take everyone at Headingley and Burley Park - which was not a given previously.

The 195s seem similar to the 170s in layout & capacity, so I hope you see similar benefits.

 

[sprinterguy]

2. Get in all the promised cascaded stock as soon as possible.

All of the cascaded stock has already arrived barring a couple of prospective 150s from GWR, which I'm unsure if they've ever been officially confirmed (150001/002 and a 150/2, I believe). Which does concern me as to how effectively 58 class 195s will directly or indirectly replace 102 Pacer units (None of the new 331s will replace Pacers), given that all that cascaded stock hasn't made the slightest dent in their numbers.

Northern no doubt have a better idea of how it's all going to work though, especially given that a 3-car 195 is equivalent to a pair of Pacers as noted above.

I wish nothing but good luck on the
success of 195s,but let's have them ALL in service before ANY Pacer withdrawals.
Anything less would be premature especially if things go wrong.
Having nothing to fall back on is not ideal if the worst ever happens.

I understand your reasoning, but I don't think I've ever seen the introduction of a new train fleet where all the outgoing trains were kept on lease until all of the new ones were in service. There's surely not the depot capacity to accommodate both fleets simultaneously, and it was never Northern's proposed strategy had the original withdrawal dates been adhered to.

There's even more onus on Northern's part to remove the Pacers from service as quickly as possible, now that we're approaching a year down the line from when the first Pacers were supposed to go off lease.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wish nothing but good luck on the success of 195s,but let's have them ALL in service before ANY Pacer withdrawals. Anything less would be premature especially if things go wrong. Having nothing to fall back on is not ideal if the worst ever happens.

Just to clarify matters, what if any, is the legal obligation for adherence to the stated final date of withdrawal from service of the Class 142 Pacer fleet and would the need for operational use of these units past that point be one that could be challenged in law?

 

[xotGD]

I have an irrational wish for this Pacer Withdrawal thread to reach 1000 posts before the first Pacer is withdrawn.

I'm expecting this to be fulfilled, based on the rate of progress.

 

[krus_aragon]

Just to clarify matters, what if any, is the legal obligation for adherence to the stated final date of withdrawal from service of the Class 142 Pacer fleet and would the need for operational use of these units past that point be one that could be challenged in law?

According to the Northern Franchise Agreement (page 145) the lease for all of Northern's 142 and 144 fleet expires on 31 December 2019. So in the first instance, a new (or revised) lease agreement would have to be sought.

The plan to start returning the Pacers from September 2018 onward had the proviso that "The Franchisee shall not return any rolling stock unit to the lessor or sub lease or hire it or otherwise take steps that render it unable to be used in the delivery of the Passenger Services until a date after any rolling stock unit that can be reasonably regarded as replacing it has been introduced into unrestricted use delivering the Passenger Services."

There's also a section stating:

The Franchisee shall maintain the composition of the Train Fleet during the Franchise Term, unless the Secretary of State otherwise agrees, such that there are no changes to the Train Fleet, including changes:
(a)
to the classes or types;
(b)
to the interior configurations; or
(c)
which may reduce the journey time capabilities,
of any rolling stock vehicles specified in the Train Fleet.

so there'd be need for agreement from the SoS to deviate from the current plan (i.e. keep the Pacers longer.)

But much of this is trumped by the requirements of the RVAR and PRM-TSI. The Pacers don't meet these requirements (with the possible exception of 144012), so they'd need either a derogation from the SoS to be used as they are (as per the DDA 1995, section 47), or authorisation from the SoS to undertake the modifications, on top of permission to renew the lease on the trains. So it ends up being a political decision either way.

 

[Chester1]

Just to clarify matters, what if any, is the legal obligation for adherence to the stated final date of withdrawal from service of the Class 142 Pacer fleet and would the need for operational use of these units past that point be one that could be challenged in law?

The DfT would have to do agree a variation to the franchise agreement and sign a derogation. The Secretary of State very broad powers over derogations.

I have an irrational wish for this Pacer Withdrawal thread to reach 1000 posts before the first Pacer is withdrawn.

I'm expecting this to be fulfilled, based on the rate of progress.

With the first 9 new units entering service on Monday its likely that the first batch of pacers will go within the next month or so, probably being taken by TfW until the end of the year. If 1000 post mark is reached by then it will be due to people complaining after the official announcement of withdrawal is made!

 

[rich r]

I think it'd be far better to use the Pacers freed up by the introduction of 195s to double up some of the two-car units that regularly get full after three stations and can't pick up any more passengers on the rest of their route.

But then, I guess it's not as simple as that.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I think it'd be far better to use the Pacers freed up by the introduction of 195s to double up some of the two-car units that regularly get full after three stations and can't pick up any more passengers on the rest of their route.

But then, I guess it's not as simple as that.

All Northern diesel diagrams (peak, at least) should be booked 4-car. At least then you still have (cosy) 2-car and not a cancellation should one go tech. Mid-Cheshire should be 4-car and that can take Pacers. Buxton another with cascaded Sprinters.

 

[Chester1]

I think it'd be far better to use the Pacers freed up by the introduction of 195s to double up some of the two-car units that regularly get full after three stations and can't pick up any more passengers on the rest of their route.

But then, I guess it's not as simple as that.

Northern would have to pay the leases for both fleets and the franchise is rumoured to be losing a lot of money. There will always be an argument to keep old units due to peak overcrowding and at some point a line has to be drawn. If you add together the 195s, 769s and units away for refurbishment they have significantly more capacity than the pacer fleet. It makes sense to withdraw units on something like a one for one basis (in terms of numbers of coaches). TfW have been heavily linked to leasing 8 pacers until the end of the year to cover during PRM upgrade work and 9 x 195s would more than compensate for 8 pacers.

 

[Greybeard33]

9 x 195s would more than compensate for 8 pacers.

In point of fact it is 7*195/1s that are being introduced on 01 July, together with 2*331/1s (the latter on Leeds - Doncaster diagrams). See the respective threads.

 

[PHILIPE]

All of the cascaded stock has already arrived barring a couple of prospective 150s from GWR, which I'm unsure if they've ever been officially confirmed (150001/002 and a 150/2, I believe). Which does concern me as to how effectively 58 class 195s will directly or indirectly replace 102 Pacer units (None of the new 331s will replace Pacers), given that all that cascaded stock hasn't made the slightest dent in their numbers.

Northern no doubt have a better idea of how it's all going to work though, especially given that a 3-car 195 is equivalent to a pair of Pacers as noted above.

I understand your reasoning, but I don't think I've ever seen the introduction of a new train fleet where all the outgoing trains were kept on lease until all of the new ones were in service. There's surely not the depot capacity to accommodate both fleets simultaneously, and it was never Northern's proposed strategy had the original withdrawal dates been adhered to.

There's even more onus on Northern's part to remove the Pacers from service as quickly as possible, now that we're approaching a year down the line from when the first Pacers were supposed to go off lease.

The 150/2s from GWR are 202, 207 and 216 which are the Angel ones with 2+3 seating

 

[deltic08]

With the first 9 new units entering service on Monday its likely that the first batch of pacers will go within the next month or so, probably being taken by TfW until the end of the year. If 1000 post mark is reached by then it will be due to people complaining after the official announcement of withdrawal is made!

It is 7 diagrams on day one, not 9 units.