• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Welsh government to reverse bus deregulation

Status
Not open for further replies.

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,880
Location
Nottingham
We run the risk here of disappearing down the usual rabbit hole and, as always, we have had the par exemplar of Zurich thrown into the mix. As if Brexit hasn't highlighted the differences enough (and I don't want a debate on that), there is a completely different ethos in Europe. They are prepared to SPEND public money on creating a cogent connected public transport network whilst, in the UK, the Tories have pursued a policy of hollowing out the state. We are spending less, even in London.

Also, you look at how social policies are constructed in many European municipal areas in terms of sustainable development etc. We just don't do that - there is a god given right (it seems) to not only drive your tin box around and then to abandon it as close to your house as possible. Culturally, we are very different and sadly, our politicians (with a few exceptions) will not upset the voters by a) spending more money (or at least not when there are more "deserving" causes) and b) constrain some aspects of car use if only by levelling out the playing field.

FFS, we've not seen a fuel duty increase in the budget since 2011 because we don't wish to penalise "hard pressed families" aka voters yet bus fares have had to increase as wages and pensions increased for staff AND BSOG has been reduced PLUS twirly pass remuneration has been slashed WITH other legislative requirements also being introduced.

To be absolutely honest, the UK bus industry provides a decent product DESPITE government policy and the relative lack of funding.

Therefore, the idea that somehow, the Welsh Government, Andy Burnham or anyone can suddenly provide a London style network without the funding is tantamount to alchemy!
Some parts of the bus industry do pretty well despite the framework they have to operate under. And the anti-competitive behaviour isn't because they are evil but because they have to do that to survive and prosper under deregulation.

Some form of franchising is of course a pre-requisite if government at whatever level wishes to pump money into the bus industry as a quick and relatively cheap way of reducing congestion and improving local transport, as Ken Livingstone did at the time of the congestion charge. Try and do that under deregulation and some operator or other would be consulting the lawyers about unfair competition.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Mwanesh

Member
Joined
14 May 2016
Messages
792
Honestly are we going to trust the people at Cardiff Bay after the M4 fiasco. I personally dont think so.
 
Last edited:

TheGrandWazoo

Veteran Member
Joined
18 Feb 2013
Messages
20,028
Location
Somerset with international travel (e.g. across th
A lot more than I trust the largely disreputable small companies that make up most of Wales's bus industry that isn't Arriva, Cardiff Bus and Newport Bus.

Ignoring Stagecoach and First, that’s a tad unfair. There are the well publicised Padarn and Express frauds and the GHA collapse but a lot of good smaller firms. In the days of Clayton Jones and others, you had plenty of small operators of questionable quality but as the market has matured, the operators are generally decent and no worse than elsewhere in the U.K.
 

TheGrandWazoo

Veteran Member
Joined
18 Feb 2013
Messages
20,028
Location
Somerset with international travel (e.g. across th
New Zealand is an even more extreme case than the UK in terms of car dependence, land use and general Anglo-Saxon culture, yet they managed to get rid of bus deregulation and introduce an integrated fare system. Even in Switzerland car culture exists and they can pretty much drive anywhere they want. They have much lower fuel duty there as well. There are always excuses why Britain has to be worse than everywhere else, such as population density and suburban development, yet when you actually do proper comparisons the excuses really are just excuses.

I think you’re missing the point. There is no singular reason why we can’t emulate those nations but we choose not to.

Why is that?
 

RT4038

Established Member
Joined
22 Feb 2014
Messages
4,225
Also true, however what you don't want to be doing is penalising people for having to use two modes/operators - this is the massive issue with having multiple operators with their own fares systems. The Dutch system doesn't - you pay a flat "starting rate", then a per-kilometre fare set by each operator. While that wouldn't be my preference, it is certainly a workable option that fixes the cross-operator "penalty for changing" issue while still allowing operators to compete with different per-km fares if they wish.

This issue of fares involving changes of route/operators/modes is, in my opinion, the biggest potential gain from a regulated system. This country has swung from a de-regulated system (prior to 1930), to a regulated system (1930-86) and then back to a de-regulated system from 1986 (albeit with more controls than prior to 1930), each change with laudable ideals and goals, but these have each produced undesirable side effects which have become more apparent over the years.
Without laying any blame, because it is not at all helpful or relevant, the current deregulated bus companies have sought to protect their market (by issuing own operator multi-ride tickets) from 'first at the stop' tactics, have been discouraged by Competition rules from through ticketing, and more importantly have not wanted to take the kind of financial risk that the change to through/inter available ticketing brings. This is totally understandable, as in their experience, fares reductions have mostly yielded instant losses from existing passengers and a long hard slog to attract new or more frequent riders. We wouldn't risk it if it was our personal money!
In 1981/2 in London, the 'Fares Fair' additional subsidies enabled a radical change to the fare system, away from graduated stages to a zonal system. This could only be done by extra subsidies to pay for the reduction of the higher fares - when the extra subsidies were reduced the zonal fares rose but the structure reform was not rolled back.
If there is the extra subsidy to reform something which is virtually impossible in the current framework, through-route/operator/mode ticketing is it.
Re-regulation without extra money is unlikely to yield much benefit at all - the risk of fares reform will not be affordable - sure in some places it will be tried and probably result in service cutbacks as the revenue base is eroded. Just because the service is state controlled doesn't guarantee no reduction in services - look at the Conway Valley line etc. On the buses these cutbacks are more likely to hit the poorer areas which justify more frequent service, but politically eliminating rural and affluent area routes will be difficult. Exactly what happened in the latter part of the previous regulated era.
I am not sure I agree with harmonising fares in accordance with distance - this is exactly what happened in the latter part of the previous regulated era, resulting in the poorer areas with high load factors being charged higher fares to cross-subsidise routes with more affluent but fewer passengers (generally in rural areas). The routes that have low load factors / high costs should have higher fares.
One of the [desirable] effects of de-regulation has been to concentrate resources on urban and inter-urban services where passenger usage is greatest, and I wouldn't want to lose that for wider social engineering aims.
One thing for sure, as night follows day, is that a few years after the industry is re-regulated there will be calls for de-regulation, because after a while vested interest sets in. Each period of deregulation and regulation has brought desirable changes to the structure of the industry. Let the next change bring fares reform.
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
I think you’re missing the point. There is no singular reason why we can’t emulate those nations but we choose not to.

Why is that?

Why is the UK backward in so many ways, not just transport? A lot of it is probably down to ignorance - failure to look at what works outside the Anglosphere. Even in the transport planning industry there is little awareness of how integrated transport actually works.
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
In 1981/2 in London, the 'Fares Fair' additional subsidies enabled a radical change to the fare system, away from graduated stages to a zonal system. This could only be done by extra subsidies to pay for the reduction of the higher fares - when the extra subsidies were reduced the zonal fares rose but the structure reform was not rolled back.

This shows that you don't need low fares to have an integrated fare system. The fares can be adjusted up or down to whatever subsidy level is available.
 

TheGrandWazoo

Veteran Member
Joined
18 Feb 2013
Messages
20,028
Location
Somerset with international travel (e.g. across th
I keep missing the point, so it might be easier to spell out what the point is.
Trying to establish the root cause.

You rightly say there’s no reason we can’t emulate these nations so why don’t we?

If it’s not geographic or to do with the Anglosphere (you quoted New Zealand) then why are we as we are. Surely understand that and you can address the issues????
 

RT4038

Established Member
Joined
22 Feb 2014
Messages
4,225
This shows that you don't need low fares to have an integrated fare system. The fares can be adjusted up or down to whatever subsidy level is available.

This may be true, but at the time of the change to the system is the subsidy requirement. If at the time of the fare structure change there is a fares increase for some, this will result in protest. In the London scenario alluded to, the extra subsidy allowed the higher fares to be reduced to that of the lower fares, and then after an interval all of the fares then rose. Some would say that some of the public were duped, but the Transport Planners got away with it!
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
I am not sure I agree with harmonising fares in accordance with distance - this is exactly what happened in the latter part of the previous regulated era, resulting in the poorer areas with high load factors being charged higher fares to cross-subsidise routes with more affluent but fewer passengers (generally in rural areas). The routes that have low load factors / high costs should have higher fares.

One of the [desirable] effects of de-regulation has been to concentrate resources on urban and inter-urban services where passenger usage is greatest, and I wouldn't want to lose that for wider social engineering aims.

Public transport is not just for captive passengers who have no choice. It is at least as important to provide a service that affluent people who have a car available will use. That means serving areas that are currently considered to be "not commercial". Switzerland is extremely wealthy compared to the UK, yet it has higher PT mode share.
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
Trying to establish the root cause.

You rightly say there’s no reason we can’t emulate these nations so why don’t we?

If it’s not geographic or to do with the Anglosphere (you quoted New Zealand) then why are we as we are. Surely understand that and you can address the issues????

If I knew the answer then others would also, and so this thread wouldn't exist as we would already be enjoying what others take for granted.
 

RT4038

Established Member
Joined
22 Feb 2014
Messages
4,225
Public transport is not just for captive passengers who have no choice. It is at least as important to provide a service that affluent people who have a car available will use. That means serving areas that are currently considered to be "not commercial". Switzerland is extremely wealthy compared to the UK, yet it has higher PT mode share.

I do not think it is 'at least as important' at the moment. We are not starting from where Switzerland is now. It would not be sensible for the poorer sections of the community to subsidise the more affluent at this stage. This is what we did in the latter part of the previous regulated regime. Maybe in Switzerland the affluent people do not mainly live dispersed in rural areas??
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
I do not think it is 'at least as important' at the moment. We are not starting from where Switzerland is now. It would not be sensible for the poorer sections of the community to subsidise the more affluent at this stage. This is what we did in the latter part of the previous regulated regime. Maybe in Switzerland the affluent people do not mainly live dispersed in rural areas??

Rural areas are a bit of a red herring. There are laws in Switzerland meaning that villages above a certain population have to be served. But the UK has historically had quite a comprehensive network of rural buses compared to many other European countries, and that is where a lot of the tendered subsidy used to go before the cuts during this decade. But providing a few buses a day will never provide much competition for the private car in any country, even Switzerland.

The key problem is that affluent people in urban and suburban areas (outside London) aren't using public transport much.
 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,880
Location
Nottingham
Trying to establish the root cause.

You rightly say there’s no reason we can’t emulate these nations so why don’t we?

If it’s not geographic or to do with the Anglosphere (you quoted New Zealand) then why are we as we are. Surely understand that and you can address the issues????
I suggest the root cause is the ideology of the Tory party in the 1980s which combined a zeal for privatisation and deregulation in general with an desire to concentrate all power at the nation state level which they coincidentally happened to control. Even in the USA where most things are private, buses are still state controlled and would be impossible for someone like Reagan or Trump to deregulate because each state and city has the power to resist things imposed at a federal level. Since then central government has largely ignored buses because they work reasonably well in London where they are visible, and outside London both the direct cost and the failure of the bus system to maximise benefits falls on local authorities that are largely powerless and that central government mostly doesn't care about. This may be changing somewhat as regional government starts to show some interest, as in Wales and Greater Manchester.

You question why one nation don't adopt any of the systems used by other nations with similar economies. I would question why none of the far larger number of comparable nations has chosen to follow the UK. As usual some people think everyone else is marching out of step.
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
I suggest the root cause is the ideology of the Tory party in the 1980s which combined a zeal for privatisation and deregulation in general with an desire to concentrate all power at the nation state level which they coincidentally happened to control.

This has been used on this forum as a key "excuse" why things can't change. The theory is that the 1980s disrupted things so much that there is no point doing anything, as the damage done is irreparable.
 

edwin_m

Veteran Member
Joined
21 Apr 2013
Messages
24,880
Location
Nottingham
This has been used on this forum as a key "excuse" why things can't change. The theory is that the 1980s disrupted things so much that there is no point doing anything, as the damage done is irreparable.
I don't know if you believe I think that but I certainly don't. In my view restoring some form of bus regulation and improving bus funding outside London is the best single thing that could be done to improve public transport in Britain, in terms of benefit per pound spent.
 

RT4038

Established Member
Joined
22 Feb 2014
Messages
4,225
I suggest the root cause is the ideology of the Tory party in the 1980s which combined a zeal for privatisation and deregulation in general with an desire to concentrate all power at the nation state level which they coincidentally happened to control. Even in the USA where most things are private, buses are still state controlled and would be impossible for someone like Reagan or Trump to deregulate because each state and city has the power to resist things imposed at a federal level. Since then central government has largely ignored buses because they work reasonably well in London where they are visible, and outside London both the direct cost and the failure of the bus system to maximise benefits falls on local authorities that are largely powerless and that central government mostly doesn't care about. This may be changing somewhat as regional government starts to show some interest, as in Wales and Greater Manchester.

You question why one nation don't adopt any of the systems used by other nations with similar economies. I would question why none of the far larger number of comparable nations has chosen to follow the UK. As usual some people think everyone else is marching out of step.

I think the root cause goes much further back than the 1980s - many of the 'regulated' buses were hardly paragons of excellence, integration and European practice in the previous two decades either! Much of the network was crippled by staff and bus shortages, or have we forgotten those times?
I'm not sure that the average US bus system is ever so much better used than the de-regulated systems here, in spite of the usually lower fares and higher subsidies.
 

TheGrandWazoo

Veteran Member
Joined
18 Feb 2013
Messages
20,028
Location
Somerset with international travel (e.g. across th
If I knew the answer then others would also, and so this thread wouldn't exist as we would already be enjoying what others take for granted.
I think that is the point....there isn't a straightforward single answer.

The Swiss and most other European countries approach public funding in a range of different ways and with different priorities. Maybe it's because of their history, their political structures (not FPTP), the differing priorities? It is a complex question and not easily solved and there is not one answer

You often cite the Netherlands as an example of superb bus provision and public transport integration and you're not wrong. However, they went from a position where farebox revenue covered 70% of cost to only 30% of cost.

The UK just doesn't do that - the major parties aren't doing that or proposing to. The Tories brought the bus bill into being - why? A purely altruistic move? Or something akin to the "big society" or the license fee settlement - a further hollowing out of the state so they can move the responsibility away from central government? Labour, in fairness, are claiming that they will spend £1.3bn to reverse the cuts but that's only to get back to 2012 rather than any sort of structural improvement and that is dwarfed by the removal of tuition fees/reintroducing student grants etc at £11.2bn.

Perhaps we just don't see public transport as a true benefit in the UK? I haven't seen a Brexit bus with "let's fund our public transport network instead"
 

TheGrandWazoo

Veteran Member
Joined
18 Feb 2013
Messages
20,028
Location
Somerset with international travel (e.g. across th
I think the root cause goes much further back than the 1980s - many of the 'regulated' buses were hardly paragons of excellence, integration and European practice in the previous two decades either! Much of the network was crippled by staff and bus shortages, or have we forgotten those times?
I'm not sure that the average US bus system is ever so much better used than the de-regulated systems here, in spite of the usually lower fares and higher subsidies.

Ah... the glory days. Cross subsidisation and brown vinyl seated Nationals...
 

RT4038

Established Member
Joined
22 Feb 2014
Messages
4,225
The key problem is that affluent people in urban and suburban areas (outside London) aren't using public transport much.

And haven't done for the last 50+ years. This is no recent (or post de-regulation) phenomenon. They'll use trains for medium to long distance travel, but wouldn't be seen dead in a bus.
I would suggest this is more an indication of the social fabric of this country than purely something that the bus industry can solve. Maybe Swiss society is just not like this?
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,783
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Rural areas are a bit of a red herring. There are laws in Switzerland meaning that villages above a certain population have to be served. But the UK has historically had quite a comprehensive network of rural buses compared to many other European countries, and that is where a lot of the tendered subsidy used to go before the cuts during this decade. But providing a few buses a day will never provide much competition for the private car in any country, even Switzerland.

This is true to an extent - but their usefulness for more than just a day trip to the local town is improved if you look to co-ordinate the timetables with other sparse-ish services. I can't imagine anywhere this could work better than using the Conwy Valley as a base for an enhanced Snowdonia service, for instance.

The key problem is that affluent people in urban and suburban areas (outside London) aren't using public transport much.

That's also true.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,783
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
I would suggest this is more an indication of the social fabric of this country than purely something that the bus industry can solve. Maybe Swiss society is just not like this?

Most countries aren't like this. It's a combination of Thatcher's gob and historically poor service - probably half of each.

What we do have, though, is a golden opportunity to change it. Post-millennials are increasingly shunning car ownership. Get them on board early and they may well not bother learning to drive at all. Or ignore them and Uber will get the custom instead.
 

RT4038

Established Member
Joined
22 Feb 2014
Messages
4,225
Ah... the glory days. Cross subsidisation and brown vinyl seated Nationals...

Or a green vinyl seat LH.... No bus and no crew available in Luton, Bristol, Dudley. And as for London Country and Alder Valley...... Stoppages here, restrictive practices there, who cared about the passengers? It is easily forgotten (or never known) - not all the fault of the operating industry. Government interference on wages and fares, no investment money, hopeless Industrial Relations at Leyland and other suppliers.
 

radamfi

Established Member
Joined
29 Oct 2009
Messages
9,267
I think the root cause goes much further back than the 1980s - many of the 'regulated' buses were hardly paragons of excellence, integration and European practice in the previous two decades either! Much of the network was crippled by staff and bus shortages, or have we forgotten those times?
I'm not sure that the average US bus system is ever so much better used than the de-regulated systems here, in spite of the usually lower fares and higher subsidies.

Whilst deregulation means integration is almost impossible, regulation does not guarantee integration. Even TfL is far from textbook integration and it took until 2016 for changing buses to be possible without penalty.

There were some promising nods towards integration in the early 80s in some of the PTE areas, and if they were allowed to implement franchising rather than deregulation, maybe things could have turned out differently.

And haven't done for the last 50+ years. This is no recent (or post de-regulation) phenomenon. They'll use trains for medium to long distance travel, but wouldn't be seen dead in a bus.
I would suggest this is more an indication of the social fabric of this country than purely something that the bus industry can solve. Maybe Swiss society is just not like this?

But in London, affluent people do use buses, whereas that was less the case before the TfL days. Without the middle class using buses, there is little point to them other than providing transport for an ever shrinking captive market.
 

TheGrandWazoo

Veteran Member
Joined
18 Feb 2013
Messages
20,028
Location
Somerset with international travel (e.g. across th
Most countries aren't like this. It's a combination of Thatcher's gob and historically poor service - probably half of each.

What we do have, though, is a golden opportunity to change it. Post-millennials are increasingly shunning car ownership. Get them on board early and they may well not bother learning to drive at all. Or ignore them and Uber will get the custom instead.

I don't even think you can blame Thatcher - our approach to railways has been much different to many other countries, let alone buses.

We have some other big challenges in how other social changes are affecting our demand for use alongside opportunities but you're right, getting younger people to be habitual public transport users (at least in urban areas) should be the aim.
 

Non Multi

Member
Joined
11 Dec 2017
Messages
1,117
I think the root cause goes much further back than the 1980s - many of the 'regulated' buses were hardly paragons of excellence, integration and European practice in the previous two decades either! Much of the network was crippled by staff and bus shortages, or have we forgotten those times?
I'm not sure that the average US bus system is ever so much better used than the de-regulated systems here, in spite of the usually lower fares and higher subsidies.
The NBC buses didn't turn up (not enough drivers) in the late '70s and the frustrated passengers gave up on buses entirely. Result: towns full of two car households. It was madness not to rewrite the timetables.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top