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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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Howardh

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First in line for trade deals with the US. Do we think the trade deals will be favourable to us or the massive bargaining power of the US?
Hope I'm wrong, infact considering what some think the damage will be to the economy I hope I'm wrong about all of it.
Haven't caught the full story, but heard on the news that "sector by sector" deals would be illegal under WTO rules?
 
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Howardh

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I agree. Absolutely nobody knows how the UK as a lone trading country will fare by next year, let alone in 10 years time. In 10 years we could be anything from a vassal 51st state to a European Zimbabwe!
We'll end up somewhere inbetween Zimbabwe and the USA.


Venezuela???
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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I agree. Absolutely nobody knows how the UK as a lone trading country will fare by next year, let alone in 10 years time. In 10 years we could be anything from a vassal 51st state to a European Zimbabwe!

An interesting observation, noting that when Zimbabwe achieved independence, one of their main priorities was to return farmlands to their historically-based peoples.

So, drawing comparisons, will the Celts be also given back ownership of our home-based farmlands...:rolleyes:
 

Bantamzen

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First in line for trade deals with the US. Do we think the trade deals will be favourable to us or the massive bargaining power of the US?

Hope I'm wrong, infact considering what some think the damage will be to the economy I hope I'm wrong about all of it.

The US administration have used this line before. But before people rush off to buy their USA flags to celebrate, Trump's administration isn't exactly known for being very accommodating to countries not prepared to be told by the US exactly what any deal should look like. And let us not forget that this latest instance has come from the National Security Adviser, so there are going to be military caveats for sure. Greenham Common anyone...???
 

Typhoon

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First in line for trade deals with the US. Do we think the trade deals will be favourable to us or the massive bargaining power of the US?
I would rather we were doing trade deals with countries or groups on a similar level to us so we were bargaining as equals then when we have built up a sound trading network, turn to the US. I think we also need to think about what we are likely to be able to export to them that we don't do now (because of the price differential that free trade brings) and what they are likely to export to us, and how this will affect our industries. Hopefully, this sort of planning has been going on, but ….
 

ainsworth74

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I would rather we were doing trade deals with countries or groups on a similar level to us so we were bargaining as equals then when we have built up a sound trading network, turn to the US. I think we also need to think about what we are likely to be able to export to them that we don't do now (because of the price differential that free trade brings) and what they are likely to export to us, and how this will affect our industries. Hopefully, this sort of planning has been going on, but ….

It's a shame we could be part of a economic block that is a similar size in economic terms to the United States or China. That would help us get a good deal as we'd be able to approach the table as equals rather than in a position of fundamental weakness. Shame that such thing isn't possible...
 

anme

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I would rather we were doing trade deals with countries or groups on a similar level to us so we were bargaining as equals then when we have built up a sound trading network, turn to the US. I think we also need to think about what we are likely to be able to export to them that we don't do now (because of the price differential that free trade brings) and what they are likely to export to us, and how this will affect our industries. Hopefully, this sort of planning has been going on, but ….

Could you name a few countries or blocks that we should target - that are "on a similar level to us so we were bargaining as equals"?
 
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DarloRich

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It's a shame we could be part of a economic block that is a similar size in economic terms to the United States or China. That would help us get a good deal as we'd be able to approach the table as equals rather than in a position of fundamental weakness. Shame that such thing isn't possible...

agreed - as if the USA is going to do us any favours! They are going to pull our pants down and bend us over and give us a jolly good spanking
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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agreed - as if the USA is going to do us any favours! They are going to pull our pants down and bend us over and give us a jolly good spanking

Do I sense some similarity to disciplinary procedures carried out by a housemaster at Eton, a place well known to certain elements in the top echelon of the Conservative Party in that statement above?
 

edwin_m

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The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.
Trump, or his ghost writer. The Art of the Deal.
 

AM9

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Do I sense some similarity to disciplinary procedures carried out by a housemaster at Eton, a place well known to certain elements in the top echelon of the Conservative Party in that statement above?
You seem to have a far more intimate knowledge of whatever went on there than me. :)
 

fowler9

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I would rather we were doing trade deals with countries or groups on a similar level to us so we were bargaining as equals then when we have built up a sound trading network, turn to the US. I think we also need to think about what we are likely to be able to export to them that we don't do now (because of the price differential that free trade brings) and what they are likely to export to us, and how this will affect our industries. Hopefully, this sort of planning has been going on, but ….
If only this could happen and with close neighbours. We could call it the union of Europe. That or we could start trading with Australia (Do we not already) whose former leader called us effing idiots for leaving the EU, or the US who want to bend us over a tree and do something medieval to us. Perhaps China who have just told us to geg out of what is going on in Hong Kong because it is none of our business. India who want freedom of movement to the UK for citizens in exchange for deal. The mind just boggles.

Apologies Typhoon. This isn't aimed at you. Just random thoughts.
 

Bantamzen

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As I expected, Phillip Hammond is moving towards wrecking the government's weak working majority, and starting the push towards blocking any attempt to force through a no deal scenario:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49336144

Former Chancellor Philip Hammond has accused the PM of trying to wreck the chance of a new Brexit deal, by making demands the EU could never accept.

In a Times article, Mr Hammond said a no-deal Brexit would be "a betrayal" of the 2016 referendum result.

He said Parliament would "make its voice heard", adding that a no deal "must not happen".

A No 10 source said the UK would leave on 31 October despite Mr Hammond's "best efforts to the contrary".

The source added that Mr Hammond, as chancellor, "did everything he could" to block preparations for leaving and had "undermined negotiations".


The former chancellor rejected this suggestion in a tweet, saying he wanted to deliver Brexit "and voted to do so three times".

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called for the EU to remove the Irish border backstop plan before the Brexit deadline of 31 October.

Many of those who voted against Theresa May's Brexit deal had concerns over the backstop - designed to guarantee there will not be a hard Irish border after Brexit - which, if implemented, would see Northern Ireland staying aligned to some rules of the EU single market.

Mr Hammond, in his first comments since stepping down last month, said the early signs that Mr Johnson could take the UK out of the EU with a deal in place were "not encouraging".

He wrote: "The pivot from demanding changes to the backstop to demanding its total removal is a pivot from a tough negotiating stance to a wrecking one.

"The unelected people who pull the strings of this government know that this is a demand the EU cannot, and will not, accede to."

BBC political correspondent Tom Barton said that remark was an apparent aim at the prime minister's closest adviser, Dominic Cummings - the former Vote Leave campaign director.

'Travesty of the truth'
Mr Hammond also warned that a no-deal Brexit would "break up the UK", saying the reality would be "a diminished and inward-looking little England".

It was a "travesty of the truth", he said, to pretend that Leave voters backed a no-deal Brexit in the 2016 referendum.

"Most people in this country want to see us leave in a smooth and orderly fashion that will not disrupt lives, cost jobs or diminish living standards, whether they voted Leave or Remain in 2016," he said.

"Parliament faithfully reflects the view of that majority and it will make its voice heard."

Mr Hammond's comments come as Downing Street said it expected a group of MPs to try to block a no-deal Brexit by attempting to pass legislation when Parliament returns next month.

The Daily Telegraph reports that Commons Speaker John Bercow told an audience at the Edinburgh Fringe festival that he "strongly" believes the House of Commons "must have its way".

He said he would "fight with every breath in my body" any attempt by the prime minister to suspend Parliament to force through a no deal against MPs' wishes.

On Tuesday, Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd urged Mr Johnson not to force through a suspension.

She told the BBC: "I remain a great admirer of Parliament and of parliamentary sovereignty and I will continue to argue for the executive of the government that I'm part of to work with Parliament, not against them."

Meanwhile, the Sun has revealed that Mr Hammond and 20 other senior Tory MPs have written to the prime minister to say his demand to scrap the Irish backstop "set the bar so high that there is no realistic probability of a deal being done".

The MPs said they were "alarmed by the 'Red Lines' you have drawn which, on the face of it appear to eliminate the chance of reaching agreement with the EU".

The group also demands that Mr Johnson declares he is firmly committed to leaving the EU with a deal and is ready to compromise to get one - pointing out those were assurances he gave during the leadership campaign "both publicly and privately".

Seven other former cabinet ministers are said to have signed the letter, including David Lidington, David Gauke, Rory Stewart and Greg Clark, all of who resigned before Mr Johnson took office.

I fully expect that when Parliament reconvenes there will be a rapid meltdown on Brexit, & BoJo will try to pull out all the stops to force a shutdown. What will happen from there is anyone's guess, but one thing for sure is don't expect anything like a functional government, it will be even more chaotic than it currently is!
 

cactustwirly

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Tbh, getting a suspension is foolish, as it undermines democracy, and I doubt the Queen would agree to one, she wants to stay out of politics and stay neutral.
 

Geezertronic

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They are all about as undemocratic as each other to be honest.

From what I understand, Hammond will try to usurp UK law, and Johnson would likely retaliate by proroguing parliament
 

Bantamzen

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Knew there was a reason I liked Phillip Hammond :lol:

I wouldn't go so far as to say 'like', more 'prefer over BoJo'. But to be fair I would prefer a bag of dead badgers to BoJo, so that bar isn't very high! ;)

No that's Bullsh*t Boris - "everything is going to be just fine but just in case, adopt the brace position". Unfortunately there aren't any emergency exits!

"This is Captain BoJo speaking. Everything is going to be just fine but just in case, adopt the brace position. Also please don't worry about the wings falling off, we are technically in a big tube & when I was at school we used to use big tubes to make rockets, and they flew OK. Oh and the smoke filling the cabin, well we are ignoring that for now, its probably Corbyn smoking something herbal...." ;):D
 

furnessvale

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If only this could happen and with close neighbours. We could call it the union of Europe. That or we could start trading with Australia (Do we not already) whose former leader called us effing idiots for leaving the EU, or the US who want to bend us over a tree and do something medieval to us. Perhaps China who have just told us to geg out of what is going on in Hong Kong because it is none of our business. India who want freedom of movement to the UK for citizens in exchange for deal. The mind just boggles.

Apologies Typhoon. This isn't aimed at you. Just random thoughts.
Or we could concentrate on trade and call it the EEC or even EFTA and forget all the political one size fits all nonsense!
 

anme

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They are all about as undemocratic as each other to be honest.

From what I understand, Hammond will try to usurp UK law, and Johnson would likely retaliate by proroguing parliament

Please explain what you mean by "usurp UK law".
 

Geezertronic

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Please explain what you mean by "usurp UK law".

My understanding is that is Law that the UK will leave the EU on October 31st and the only ways to change that is for either Parliament to change the Law, or the PM to request an extension to the EU. So if Hammond wants to change that, he would be (in my opinion) usurping UK law to do so. It's about as democratic as the PM proroguing parliament
 

edwin_m

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My understanding is that is Law that the UK will leave the EU on October 31st and the only ways to change that is for either Parliament to change the Law, or the PM to request an extension to the EU. So if Hammond wants to change that, he would be (in my opinion) usurping UK law to do so. It's about as democratic as the PM proroguing parliament
Parliament exists to make and amend laws. Parliament voted to revoke Article 50 because that was the only route to begin negotiations towards implementing the 2016 result, with the unfortunate but apparently unavoidable consequence of a default to no deal if a deal could not be agreed and ratified.

What is antidemocratic is to allow no-deal to happen when Parliament has since explicitly voted against it. If the goverment was democratic enough to put no-deal to the people they would probably reject it as well (and according to surveys would now reject Brexit entirely). Hammond is only trying to prevent Johnson usurping the role of Parliament and probably also the will of the people.
 

Geezertronic

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Parliament exists to make and amend laws. Parliament voted to revoke Article 50 because that was the only route to begin negotiations towards implementing the 2016 result, with the unfortunate but apparently unavoidable consequence of a default to no deal if a deal could not be agreed and ratified.

What is antidemocratic is to allow no-deal to happen when Parliament has since explicitly voted against it. If the goverment was democratic enough to put no-deal to the people they would probably reject it as well (and according to surveys would now reject Brexit entirely). Hammond is only trying to prevent Johnson usurping the role of Parliament and probably also the will of the people.

Nice typo :)

But Parliament voted against every deal put forward, regardless of how useless it was, so the default by Law as I understand it is to leave on 31st October. I realise there were stipulations regarding a deal for that to happen (and it might still happen, who knows), but going behind peoples backs particularly to the EU as Hammond apparently has does not help any negotiations especially given the fact that the EU do not want us to leave either.
 

jon0844

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Of course leaving isn't the end of it by a long chalk. There will be agreements and trade discussion, not to mention dodging the blame, for years if not decades.

As the government's policy of leaving is looking so disastrous, the natural figurehead for Remain would be the leader of the opposition. That ought to work out well...

Wait, there's an opposition? Who?!
 

EM2

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Who are the collaborators and who is the enemy?
To quote the late Sir Terry Pratchett in 'Jingo':
“It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.”
 
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