Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

[Jorge Da Silva]

Grant Shapps has said on Sky News: https://news.sky.com/video/hs2-just-give-us-the-facts-says-transport-secretary-11790403

In summary he said they have come in and started from a blank sheet of paper and then asked the panel reviewing the project to give them the facts, where are they up to? How much will it cost to complete the project? is there still a business case? and then they will be in a much better position to say whether they should or should not proceed.

 

[Mojo]

2. It goes through his constituency.

To be fair, HS2 will only be in tunnel whilst it passes through the Uxbridge & South Ruislip constituency, but arguably those who’s houses are on top of the tunnel get a worse deal than those who are nearby the line in the open section, as those who are forced to sell subsoil rights are not guaranteed to get any compensation aside from a £50 for selling the soil rights and £250 for legal fees, whereas those between 120 metres and 300 metres of the line at surface level receive payments of between £22,500 and £7,500 dependent on the distance and rateable value of their house.

Having said that, his constituents certainly have been adversely affected by bad traffic, numerous road closures, closures of public facilities such as the golf course, noise, and diversions/closures of public footpaths.

 

[PR1Berske]

Good lord, if this gets cancelled we're going to become an even greater laughing stock.

Not necessarily. If a project becomes too expensive, or too unfocused, a responsible government is right to re-examine the need for it.

 

[PR1Berske]

Another surrender to the NIMBY / special interest mafia.

Or maybe another chance to consider whether £55bn is the right amount of money for dubious benefits? Government is always criticised for wasting money, this is a chance for them to stop before it's too late.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or maybe another chance to consider whether £55bn is the right amount of money for dubious benefits? Government is always criticised for wasting money, this is a chance for them to stop before it's too late.

How else do you propose to solve the south WCML capacity issue? Please give costed and worked examples.

 

[PR1Berske]

I struggle to see how it won't be cancelled or drastically scaled back from this.
Boris Johnson has always been very Anti-HS2. It would make him look extremely hypocritical if he then went on to push it through. Although he is a politician and probably use to that, I think this is perhaps one step too far. This announcement scares me a lot because the local commuter capacity HS2 will release in the Birmingham area is urgently needed.

HS2 won't improve the Birmingham area.

 

[PR1Berske]

Instead of the usual anti Johnson bluster perhaps people should come up with a reason for the Government not to review the expenditure of billions of taxpayers money, surely it's nothing but good practice regardless of who happens to hold the reins

Exactly.

Governments are often criticised for wasting money. Now some on here are critical of them for reviewing a large budget!

 

[PR1Berske]

How else do you propose to solve the south WCML capacity issue? Please give costed and worked examples.

No, it's up to you to justify £55bn on HS2, not on the rest of us to create a new scheme from scratch.

There are also numerous threads to do this already.

 

[Ianno87]

HS2 won't improve the Birmingham area.

Whuh?

A new main line railway into central Birmingham and 7-platform terminus opposite the Bullring/Moor Street isn't an improvement in your head?

 

[DH1Commuter]

Chances of the money saved being used to fund public transport improvements elsewhere if HS2 is cancelled? Minimal.

I predict a major road-building campaign if the review finds for cancellation.

 

[sharpley]

HS2 won't improve the Birmingham area.

It will do little for the East Midlands either, with the East Midlands Hub Station being located on the outskirts of Nottingham. Any time saved on the HS2 journey will be lost in actually getting to the station in the first place.

 

[Roast Veg]

It will do a lot for anybody who doesn't already live on top of Nottingham or Derby stations, as railheading to Toton will be far more preferable.

 

[Aictos]

HS2 won't improve the Birmingham area.

I beg to differ as it has been explained multiple times but since you insist on being so ignorant about the benefits to local areas as well, let me explain as I understand it how HS2 will improve the Birmingham area as a former resident.

At Birmingham New Street, Virgin Train has the xx:24 terminator from London Euston which sits in a platform until it forms the xx:50 to London Euston now that's 26 minutes in total.

26 minutes in total so that's on average 4 local services that could use the platform that is freed up by not having a Virgin Trains hog the platform for that length of time, 4 local services which instead of being spread over numerous platforms would have a cascading effect in that the former platforms they used to use would now be available for more local services.

Now by removing the 2tph that Virgin Trains terminates at Birmingham New Street and that comes to 52 minutes in every hour that platforms aren't being hogged by a VT which seeing how busy New Street can be and which needs every bit of capacity it can get, that freed up capacity can be used for more regional and local services.

Now try to explain how HS2 wouldn't improve the Birmingham area....

 

[diffident]

Whuh?

A new main line railway into central Birmingham and 7-platform terminus opposite the Bullring/Moor Street isn't an improvement in your head?

Indeed, it will be a massive improvement for that segment of the city centre, which is in quite the need of redevelopment.

 

[Beemax]

I suggest we leave the half-demolished buildings as they are as a memorial to Boris and a metaphor for the Country

 

[Tobbes]

It is sensible for projects to be periodically reveiwed, especially if there have been large cost increases; this is what responsible stewards of public (or indeed shareholders' funds do).

This doesn't strike me as that, but instead a political fig leaf to allow the Government to either scrap or scale back the scheme, or to plough ahead with it having found cost savings or some other window dressing that makes the whole thing more palatable.

My hunch is that the capacity argument on WCML South means that Phase 1 survives intact (lots of Tory commuter seats would not welcome the failure to transform capacity into Euston). Phase 2a integrated into NPR/HS3/nom du jour can be repackaged, allowing the dropping of the East Midlands route in exchange for MML electrification. Given that Johnson has also christened himself "Minister for the Union", he could do a lot worse than getting the review to recommend an HSR all the way to the Central Belt, too...

 

[hwl]

To be fair, HS2 will only be in tunnel whilst it passes through the Uxbridge & South Ruislip constituency, but arguably those who’s houses are on top of the tunnel get a worse deal than those who are nearby the line in the open section, as those who are forced to sell subsoil rights are not guaranteed to get any compensation aside from a £50 for selling the soil rights and £250 for legal fees, whereas those between 120 metres and 300 metres of the line at surface level receive payments of between £22,500 and £7,500 dependent on the distance and rateable value of their house.

Having said that, his constituents certainly have been adversely affected by bad traffic, numerous road closures, closures of public facilities such as the golf course, noise, and diversions/closures of public footpaths.

It was the traffic etc that I was referring to.

 

[Andrew*Debbie]

Dropping to 125 is probably not a great idea,

Of course not. It would be ironic if HS2 ends up running at 125 or 140.

 

[Geezertronic]

HS2 won't improve the Birmingham area.

Yes it will, I live in Birmingham btw

 

[underbank]

Personally, I think parliamentary reviews of huge projects like this are essential. You can't just give the go ahead on 10/20 year projects and ignore them. The managers and consultants involved need to be properly monitored and managed. We've seen what can happen on the Crossrail project when apparently no one is properly managing/monitoring it from above. No use having enquiries and parliamentary reviews afterwards once it's delayed and over-budget - far better to keep control before and during the project. The world outside the project also changes over 10/20 years, so the project will need to be modified as it goes along - you can't just go headlong into building something planned 20 years ago when transport needs are different by the time it's finished.

 

[Tobbes]

Yes it will, I live in Birmingham btw

In fact, it already has, given the investment and the businesses moving to Birmingham on the basis of HS2 connectivity.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

I am anti-HS2 in its current form. There are reasons:
- Failure to have a single station in Birmingham. As part of HS2 construction, I dare say they should have built the cross-Birmingham tunnels for Cross City stuff so as to create capacity at New Street and do the associated works for HS2 trains to arrive there.
- Failure to make it so that trains could actually go beyond Leeds because the trains will arrive perpendicular to the legacy network.
- Failure to make Sheffield a proper part of the network by using ludicrous diverts and looping routing round Chesterfield.
- Construction in phases meaning trains will go onto the network near Lichfield and then be clogged up by legacy freight etc. in the Stafford and Colwich areas.
- Failure to be anywhere near as aggressive in building a real network that has High Speed tracks at least over part of the East Coast Main Line, even if only as far as Peterborough.

We needed an ambitious, decent High Speed network that linked many parts of the country together and also ensured good TransPennine and cross-Midlands links. We weren't going to get it and the price tag was woeful for what would come. Hopefully the thing isn't 'scrapped' but its current route is totally torn up and something much better, even if for ~£120bn or so is made.

 

[diffident]

In fact, it already has, given the investment and the businesses moving to Birmingham on the basis of HS2 connectivity.

Quite, and how many of those (HSBC being a prime example) will simply move straight back out again if HS2 is abandoned? What then becomes of the Eastside re-development project which all hangs on having the HS2 station built and the metro extended down there??

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The review TOR are fine.
What I don't get (also for the Williams review), is why we have a Department of Transport that isn't already on top of these weighty issues.
The suspicion must be that they have already decided the solution and want a fig-leaf of "independent review" to justify it.
Go-ahead with reduced scope/spec is my prediction, possibly with an NPR offer built in (for the 2030s).

 

[och aye]

The BBC article states 7 Billion has already been spent so its not just hundreds of millions.

It could be worse i.e. Berlin Airport!

 

[Geezertronic]

In fact, it already has, given the investment and the businesses moving to Birmingham on the basis of HS2 connectivity.

Quite, and how many of those (HSBC being a prime example) will simply move straight back out again if HS2 is abandoned? What then becomes of the Eastside re-development project which all hangs on having the HS2 station built and the metro extended down there??

Plus the National College for High Speed Rail (and its campus in Doncaster) which would surely be under threat

 

[Mag_seven]

It should have been reviewed ages ago; it is good project management practice, when circumstances change or the budget is breached. We are now effectively at a point of no return where to continue would use an inordinate amount of funding/resources for not a comparable benefit, but to stop would make us a complete laughing stock and will have wasted tens of millions. If not hundreds.

I agree with this - but for consistency there should be a similar review into Brexit.

 

[CentralTrainer]

Shapps could find out the costs tomorrow.

What he means by deciding at “the end of the year” - is in other words, after the General Election, which Shapps and his pals hope to win, will be after the Press and Pundit Establishment has forgotten about it. There will, no doubt, be claims that savings have been identified here and there that would not otherwise have been identified, and then the idea of scrapping the project will be quietly binned. And there are good reasons for that.

One, the extra capacity which HS2 provides is already badly needed. The problem which HS2 addresses - getting more freight off the already overcrowded motorway network, while giving more capacity for passenger trains on the West Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and East Coast Main Line - will not go away merely because its existence is inconvenient to Tory politicians and their lobby group pals.

Two, the project is already at an advanced stage, with significant amounts of demolition already undertaken around London’s Euston station, and site clearance well under way around the site of the Old Oak Common hub in West London.

Three, regeneration of the Old Oak Common area is dependent on HS2 going ahead: developers have been brought on board on that premise. If Shapps, or anyone else, cans the project, the Government will face more than cancellation charges.

Four, the West Coast Partnership - the franchise to replace Virgin Trains - was let on the basis of HS2 going ahead to at least Phase 1 of the project. Bidders have already been invited to tender for the first trains for the high speed route. So that’s going to be more bills to pay in the case of cancellation. And we’re not done yet.

Five, how would Shapps explain cancellation to the Mayors, and indeed the people, of Birmingham, Greater Manchester and Merseyside? But he won’t have to.

This is a pre-election stunt. It’s more Tory dishonesty. And it will convince no-one.

 

[diffident]

Shapps could find out the costs tomorrow.

What he means by deciding at “the end of the year” - is in other words, after the General Election, which Shapps and his pals hope to win, will be after the Press and Pundit Establishment has forgotten about it. There will, no doubt, be claims that savings have been identified here and there that would not otherwise have been identified, and then the idea of scrapping the project will be quietly binned. And there are good reasons for that.

One, the extra capacity which HS2 provides is already badly needed. The problem which HS2 addresses - getting more freight off the already overcrowded motorway network, while giving more capacity for passenger trains on the West Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and East Coast Main Line - will not go away merely because its existence is inconvenient to Tory politicians and their lobby group pals.

Two, the project is already at an advanced stage, with significant amounts of demolition already undertaken around London’s Euston station, and site clearance well under way around the site of the Old Oak Common hub in West London.

Three, regeneration of the Old Oak Common area is dependent on HS2 going ahead: developers have been brought on board on that premise. If Shapps, or anyone else, cans the project, the Government will face more than cancellation charges.

Four, the West Coast Partnership - the franchise to replace Virgin Trains - was let on the basis of HS2 going ahead to at least Phase 1 of the project. Bidders have already been invited to tender for the first trains for the high speed route. So that’s going to be more bills to pay in the case of cancellation. And we’re not done yet.

Five, how would Shapps explain cancellation to the Mayors, and indeed the people, of Birmingham, Greater Manchester and Merseyside? But he won’t have to.

This is a pre-election stunt. It’s more Tory dishonesty. And it will convince no-one.

I get all that, and those are five points very well made, but as someone with skin in the game on HS2, I'm still extremely concerned at such rhetoric coming from the highest levels of Government. Stunt or no stunt.

 

[Bantamzen]

What this all means is that HS2, and probably most other infrastructure projects currently in the pipe, will all have to wait to see if BoJoBot's Brexit strategy ends in crowing glory (unlikely), or bricks the economy for decades to come (likely). In the even of the former, BoJo can than announce that all is well in the garden & away HS2 goes, or in the case of the latter announce that other "priorities" exist and there will be more consultation & review, before the project is filed alongside others such as Manchester Piccadilly P15/16 under the section named "Hope they forget about it".

If, as many of us fear, Brexit ends in crashing out with no deal, the Treasury is going to need all the cash it can lay it's hands on. HS2 will not be the only victim of no deal, whatever emerges of a government in the fallout of it will need to throw the kitchen sink at trying to prop up the economy.