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Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

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quantinghome

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Like it or not HS2 is incredibly unpopular with the electorate

As with many issues, people have their view. But at the end of the day it's about transport, which means it's never going to be a strong election issue outside the areas directly affected.

The fact that the major anti-HS2 groups have all but stopped campaigning, have no money and are unable to get more than a few people to their events is a powerful demonstration of this.
 
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ivanhoe

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At this moment, given yields on Government bonds, there's never been a better time to invest in infrastructure.Theres no shortage of takers for UK bonds to fund this project
The issue is one of politics. History shows us that investment in infrastructure is rarely unsuccessful. You can argue whether City A needs it more than City B but current plans are probably about right.
My only caveat to this is you also have to plan for local infrastructure improvements in the Cities that HS2 will touch.
 

quantinghome

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And in the case of Crossrail, big bonuses to the managers even though they have continually failed

Any idea what a tunneller's ring completion bonus is? I think you'd be surprised. Although to be fair that is a bonus for exceeding the target rate.
 

433N

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At this moment, given yields on Government bonds, there's never been a better time to invest in infrastructure.Theres no shortage of takers for UK bonds to fund this project
The issue is one of politics. History shows us that investment in infrastructure is rarely unsuccessful. You can argue whether City A needs it more than City B but current plans are probably about right.

At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself why our high speed rail is so far behind continental europe (ICE, TGV etc ... ).
How come it is a good idea there but not here ?
Isn't it time the hand-wringing stopped and we just got on with it.
 

superkev

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I live in the West Yorkshire conurbation and have only heard mention of an NPR stop in Bradford but not where it would be located
The cost of the tunneling required to build any station near the centre of Bradford would probably kill the idea. Probably at least 1.5 miles from the east direction and 2 plus miles from the south west. The plan I saw didn't even show a connection to the Aire valley lines or a route towards Manchester.
K
 

Camden

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If the finding is that good project management should have ensured a review and flagging up of budget risks some time ago, then it ought to be found out who was at fault for that, and therefore who is responsible for any unnecessary spend.

Any found unnecessary spend I would hope would be surchargeable to all those held responsible, whether that includes companies or individual ex-ministers, officials, ex-directors, etc.

Although recovering £7bn seems unlikely, and perhaps some of that would have been spent anyway, but if it recovers even anywhere in the millions it would be worth doing.
 
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Ah - the Brexit dividend in action.

That or kicking the can past an autumn election

That is what I am wondering if this like the airports commission is a convenient way to delay a controversial decision till after a General Election. Once a GE is out of the way the committee can deliver its repot and the Tories avoid the need to talk about during the campaign.
 

Morgsie

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I thought since Andrew Adonis's tenure as Transport Secretary there was a political consensus over HS2. I am concerned by this announcement given Shapps has not ruled out canning it, if ditched then it would be costly given contracts are in place and legislation. Boris is appealing to his base and this is a man that said he would lie in front of bulldozers at Heathrow given he is anti-expansion. Yes have a Review which looks at things and possibly down-scoping the project.

I live in Stoke and a concern I have is places like Stoke and Stockport's services downgraded.
 

433N

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Isn't it time the hand-wringing stopped and we just got on with it.

Not if it means we throw money down a bottomless pit - there must be a budget and it must be adhered to.

Is there evidence to suggest it will be ?
Why don't we ask Germany or France how they manage to fund theirs - oh, forgot, this is Britain and we are financial geniuses.

Just a reminder, the Bank of England can print money ... people might not pay so much for it, but hey, nothing has destroyed the value of the pound like the prospect of Brexit.

... and we might want big infrastructure projects to keep our economy going when it tanks in a couple of months.
 

6Gman

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Its clear that cancellation is going to be the result, window dressing to justify a decision already made.
There will be some suggestion about upgrading existing lines and Manchester/Leeds and most people in the UK will lap it up.
The money is needed elsewhere in the economy with tax breaks etc promised.

You cannot fund revenue spending (tax cuts) by cutting capital spending (infrastructure).
 

6Gman

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I used to think HS2 was a good idea, until I realised it was going to cost well in excess of £100 million,

And how did you calculate this figure?

{Just noticed you wrote £100 million - at which it would be a bargain ! Presumably you meant billion ?}
 
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6Gman

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Yes you can. They are both spending. Why would you not be able to?

Because you only spend capital once. Revenue spending is recurrent.

And capital expenditure produces an asset. Which, in the case of a railway, has an effectively indefinite lifespan during which it can earn income.
 
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The Ham

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Your passenger stats of WCML growth to and from Manchester might be easier to accept as proof of the need for extra capacity if you also showed the current capacity for each hour of the day. I suspect that many Virgin trains have plenty of capacity.

That information isn't in the public domain, however if we take the 11.2 million divided that by 360 days, 15 hours a day, 2 directions of travel and 5 trains an hour your have 200 passengers per train, on each and every train, making the trip between London and the North West.

However those services stop at other locations and early morning/late evening the number of services drop off a bit.

As such although that's an average load of ~35-43% that's just part of the picture, as there will also be those traveling shorter distances which will be on top of that. It also doesn't take into account any tidal flow in traffic (more arriving than departing in the morning peak and vice versa).

As such chances are there a good few services which see loadings of double that ( 70-86%).

The other problem is with doing that is that is what it looks like today, not what it looks like in 10 years time.

At 2.5% growth that could well be an average 55% loading just on the London Manchester passengers.

However last year there was 3.1% growth on Virgin services, if that continued for 10 years and it's approaching 60% full before you consider the local passenger flows or tidal flows or that the earlier/later services tend to be a bit quieter. At that point you'll see even more stations cut from the long distance services to facilitate it.
 

AntoniC

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Top Tip :
Governments normally call for reviews when they know they will get the answer they want.
I expect HS2 to go to Birmingham/Midlands and thats it.
 

The Ham

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Because you only spend capital once. Revenue spending is recurrent.

Indeed, it's why the "spend it on the NHS" is a poor suggestion.

If you give the NHS £100bn in one year they'll net be able to spend it and even if they did there'd be the issue of what to do the next year.

Therefore you spread it out, but over how long? 10 years, that's great if you need it during that time but after that it would need to make cuts to get back to the pre increase levels. What about 50 years, the increases wouldn't be so much so the cuts at the end wouldn't be that bad, but then you've increased there spend by <2% and so it's hardly worth doing.

However the payback is likely to be small, unlike infrastructure which puts a lot of money into the economy short term, which boosts spending, which boosts investment & jobs which generates more taxes. However it also makes it easier for business to work, which boosts income, and therefore jobs and investment which generates more taxes.
 

Bletchleyite

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Because you only spend capital once. Revenue spending is recurrent.

Indeed, but Government think short-term. That probably means you shouldn't cut capital projects to release funds for revenue purposes, but it doesn't mean you can't. Just like it's entirely possible for me to sell my car and blow the money on a drinking binge, but it wouldn't be very clever to do it.
 

LeeLivery

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You cannot fund revenue spending (tax cuts) by cutting capital spending (infrastructure).

We're in a post-truth world, however. It doesn't matter if that's fact, just as long as voters believe it to be so. If the Mail and Express tell people scrapping HS2 makes tax cuts affordable, sustainable even, they'll believe it and call the experts "biased".
 

6Gman

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Indeed, but Government think short-term. That probably means you shouldn't cut capital projects to release funds for revenue purposes, but it doesn't mean you can't. Just like it's entirely possible for me to sell my car and blow the money on a drinking binge, but it wouldn't be very clever to do it.

Fair point. But a terrible reflection on the current state of public administration at national level.
 

The Ham

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Top Tip :
Governments normally call for reviews when they know they will get the answer they want.
I expect HS2 to go to Birmingham/Midlands and thats it.

Whilst that is a strong contender for the outcome if I were opposed to HS2 I wouldn't get the champagne out just yet.

As although that maybe the best outcome they could expect, HS2 is unlikely to die so easily. Give it a few more years of rail growth and even more crowded trains (& extra capacity from phase 1 and maybe phase 2a will almost certainly boost it) and it is likely to be dusted off by someone and brought back.

With the opposition from the areas like Camden and the Chilterns gone (as they will have already been impacted) the rest would probably get an easier ride, especially with strong rail growth to support it and the ability for people to see how it's made their journey better (even if they don't use HS2 services)

It may well mean that it isn't fully open until (say) 2040 but don't rule it out so easily if that is the answer now.
 

AntoniC

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Whilst that is a strong contender for the outcome if I were opposed to HS2 I wouldn't get the champagne out just yet.

As although that maybe the best outcome they could expect, HS2 is unlikely to die so easily. Give it a few more years of rail growth and even more crowded trains (& extra capacity from phase 1 and maybe phase 2a will almost certainly boost it) and it is likely to be dusted off by someone and brought back.

With the opposition from the areas like Camden and the Chilterns gone (as they will have already been impacted) the rest would probably get an easier ride, especially with strong rail growth to support it and the ability for people to see how it's made their journey better (even if they don't use HS2 services)

It may well mean that it isn't fully open until (say) 2040 but don't rule it out so easily if that is the answer now.
I am a HS2 supporter - I made that comment on the basis of working for the Govt for the last 30 years - I want the whole thing built but I doubt it will happen.
 

The Ham

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I am a HS2 supporter - I made that comment on the basis of working for the Govt for the last 30 years - I want the whole thing built but I doubt it will happen.

I want suggesting that you were opposed to HS2, I just used your post as it was the last one which had made the suggestion that it would be scaled back to Birmingham / Crewe.
 

Randomer

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I suspect it will go ahead more or less as is. Exactly the same thing happened on Crossrail at a similar stage of the project. It was reviewed, cost savings were found through changing the programme, and it went ahead. I expect the 400kph design speed to be reduced, but only minor reductions to the operating speed, some rejigging of programme and reworking of the links to NPR. We could even see some elements of Phase 2b brought forward e.g. Leeds-Sheffield.

Isn't one of the reasons for Crossrail being delayed and suffering significant cost overruns because of some of the de-scoping of the programme resulting in issues now?

Also how does bringing forwards new lines without linking them to a larger high speed network bring benefits? Although the Leeds-Sheffield route is approaching current capacity in terms of trains per hour it is still significantly at less capacity in terms of train lengths and greater frequency with re-signalling.

This is by far the most likely outcome, with total cancellation a less likely second option. HS2 was always about Birmingham and further south commuters getting to London. Phase 2A and B were just sops to make it look like the 'benefits' were going to be felt in the north. There really isnt much of a passenger capacity issue north of Birmingham except at peak times.

Admittedly this might be the case in terms of WCML usage northwards, I genuinely don't know, but I can't agree that peak time overcrowding on the Birmingham - Leeds or Birmingham - Manchester routes isn't an issue (or for that matter off peak at weekends is fairly dreadful as well.) Now a lot of this is Crosscountry using far too small and low capacity trains but the benefit of separating out local commuters from those going longer distances using an alternative to XC is worthy of consideration.

Phase 2B will significantly cut journey times between Leeds and Birmingham and with properly developed timetables better journey times for the SW to NW in general. Likewise, it should increase the capacity on the Birmingham to Manchester route both with new services along with freeing up capacity on the WCML for services with more stops useful for more local journeys. From a personal view this might actually be the better long term benefit allowing a segregation of services into true intercity, regional express and local with better fare differentiation and frequencies.
 
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