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Potters Bar and Brookmans Park Fare Observations

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drspa44

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Sorry if this should probably go in an existing thread, but I didn't want to hijack any discussions. I looked into how this affects the market for someone who travels from this area to London during weekday off-peak, returns on a different day and is happy to avoid zone 1 if the journey is cheaper. Previously, we were limited to SDS fares because there are no multi-day returns nor off peak rates for weekdays.

As part of updating http://faremap.ml, I noticed there was a lack of 'avoid zone 1' fares from Brookmans Park. I have generally found better deals opening up from BPK if I split at New Southgate/Arnos Grove. It is unfortunate how much split ticketing is a thing with BPK, due to the lack of 'avoiding zone 1' routes.

With Potters Bar, there are some off-peak fares that are *much* cheaper than the SDS ones they replace. For example, if you wanted to travel from PBR to Upminster at noon on a Friday, your options are:

SDS ANYTIME DAY S £10.60 VIA FINSBURY PK
SDS ANYTIME DAY S £13.50 ANY - PERMITTED
TFL Oyster / Contactless £7.30 Default route
TFL Oyster / Contactless £3.30 Avoiding Zones 1 and 2 via Harringay/Harringay Green Lanes and Barking

However, I suspect all of these are still more expensive than getting the 298 bus from PBR to Cockfosters and paying £1.50 to get to almost anywhere in Z1-6.
e.g. £3.00 for £1.50 bus + £1.50 ZCK to UPM.

So if you were happy to go the long way but did not want to get a bus, the Oyster introduction has made this journey more than 3x cheaper.

Looking at Potters Bar. The best saving by both % and by absolute amount were reductions from £20.10 to £6.20 in Chafford Hundred, Ockendon, Purfleet and Grays. I have created the full list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WlHoQITsovGcfeJ_DknN9F96bbQbkyCDBCwaMY1Kbjg/edit?usp=sharing
 
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JonathanH

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Now repeat your analysis with off peak day returns coming back in the evening peak or alternatively based on weekend fares.

Might be a very different story.

Oh, and don't forget that break of journey is allowed on the NR 'paper' fares.

Winners and losers as ever.
 

MikeWh

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Thanks for confirming it's not just me struggling to find alternative routes for Brookmans Park.
 

Hadders

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Now repeat your analysis with off peak day returns coming back in the evening peak or alternatively based on weekend fares.

Might be a very different story.

Oh, and don't forget that break of journey is allowed on the NR 'paper' fares.

Winners and losers as ever.

Yes indeed. I'll try and do an analysis of this later.

To be honest how many people actually travel from Potters Bar to Upminster on a weekday lunchtime compared to Potters Bar to Kings Cross at the weekend.
 

drspa44

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Now repeat your analysis with off peak day returns coming back in the evening peak or alternatively based on weekend fares.

Might be a very different story.

Oh, and don't forget that break of journey is allowed on the NR 'paper' fares.

Winners and losers as ever.
Actually the spreadsheet I produced compares the cheapest NR fare of any kind with the cheapest Oyster one, so it would have included super off peak singles. I think everyone has accepted that the new fares are not going to reduce prices for people wanting to return on the same day or break their journey.

For now there aren't any losers because no fares have been removed - 100% of journeys will be the same price or less and in some cases they will be 3 times less. Also many people will appreciate not having to queue up to buy a ticket and may even go for this if it costs more. I reckon this will increase railway use in Hertfordshire, which can only be a good thing. I appreciate the argument that this may be the first step and the second step is to take away cheaper fares for returns, but the second step has not happened yet and it won't happen if the public are against it.
 

Hadders

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Let's look at Brookmans Park to London which must be the most popular flow.

Current paper tickets to Kings Cross:
Anytime Day Return 15.00
Off Peak Day Return (no evening restrictions) 9.90
Super Off Peak Day Return 9.60
Weekend Super Off Peak Day Return 7.00

Contactless fares:
Peak 7.50
Off Peak 4.90

So a passenger travelling out in the morning peak and back in the evening peak pays £15 the same as an Anytime paper ticket
A passenger travelling out off peak and back off peak will pay £9.80 compared to £9.60 at present. Small difference but nothing to be too worried about
A passenger travelling out off peak but back in the evening peak will pay £12.40 compared to £9.90 at present. An increase of 25%
A weekend traveller will pay £9.80 compared to £7.00 at present. An increase of 40%

It gets even worse for railcard holders especially at weekends where the current railcard discounted fare is £4.60. Use contactless and you'll pay £7.00 - an increase of 52%

Will there be prominently displayed posters at the station advising passengers that contactless is more expensive for some off peak travel and all travel to London at weekends? Of course not, they'll be reassured by the local MP and SoS for Transport who'll tell them that Contactless will make their journeys cheaper.
 

drspa44

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Yes indeed. I'll try and do an analysis of this later.

To be honest how many people actually travel from Potters Bar to Upminster on a weekday lunchtime compared to Potters Bar to Kings Cross at the weekend.
Let's look at Brookmans Park to London which must be the most popular flow.

Current paper tickets to Kings Cross:
Anytime Day Return 15.00
Off Peak Day Return (no evening restrictions) 9.90
Super Off Peak Day Return 9.60
Weekend Super Off Peak Day Return 7.00

Contactless fares:
Peak 7.50
Off Peak 4.90

So a passenger travelling out in the morning peak and back in the evening peak pays £15 the same as an Anytime paper ticket
A passenger travelling out off peak and back off peak will pay £9.80 compared to £9.60 at present. Small difference but nothing to be too worried about
A passenger travelling out off peak but back in the evening peak will pay £12.40 compared to £9.90 at present. An increase of 25%
A weekend traveller will pay £9.80 compared to £7.00 at present. An increase of 40%

It gets even worse for railcard holders especially at weekends where the current railcard discounted fare is £4.60. Use contactless and you'll pay £7.00 - an increase of 52%

Will there be prominently displayed posters at the station advising passengers that contactless is more expensive for some off peak travel and all travel to London at weekends? Of course not, they'll be reassured by the local MP and SoS for Transport who'll tell them that Contactless will make their journeys cheaper.
When I visited Brookmans Park, I didn't even see posters saying that Oyster was not accepted, despite the yellow branding. I would not hold my breath for a poster on the pros and cons of using contactless. :)
 

Skimpot flyer

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Of course, a passenger travelling out in the morning peak but back before the evening peak will pay £12.40 compared to £15.00 at present. A saving of over 20%
 

James H

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To their credit, the GTR press release does say

Pay as you go generally offers the cheapest single fares. However, there are some occasions where a paper single or return ticket will be cheaper, and passengers are encouraged to check fare options before travelling.

The full range of paper tickets remains available so that customers can still benefit from discounts and offers that are not available with pay as you go, such as Great Northern’s GroupSave and ‘Kids for £2’ deals. At weekends, super off-peak paper tickets, where available, will mostly be cheaper than the pay as you go fare.

https://www.mynewsdesk.com/uk/govia...xtends-to-more-hertfordshire-stations-2911885
 

Hadders

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Failed Unit

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Not sure Brookmans Park has Carnets - but nothing to temp us away from the fare dodgers favourite ticket (in the view of GTR)
 

Skimpot flyer

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Will / do GTR revenue protection teams have the means to check whether someone’s contactless card has been ‘touched in’ ?
I have travelled on London Overground and seen inspectors checking contactless cards (as well as Oysters)
 

Ethano92

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Will / do GTR revenue protection teams have the means to check whether someone’s contactless card has been ‘touched in’ ?
I have travelled on London Overground and seen inspectors checking contactless cards (as well as Oysters)


Yes they do. I've had my card checked on Thameslink but only ever once. Took me an embarrassingly long while to figure out what the lady was asking for since I had never seen a ticket inspector on GTR in the suburban area and didn't know they existed:oops:
 

jon0844

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Let's look at Brookmans Park to London which must be the most popular flow.

Current paper tickets to Kings Cross:
Anytime Day Return 15.00
Off Peak Day Return (no evening restrictions) 9.90
Super Off Peak Day Return 9.60
Weekend Super Off Peak Day Return 7.00

Contactless fares:
Peak 7.50
Off Peak 4.90

So a passenger travelling out in the morning peak and back in the evening peak pays £15 the same as an Anytime paper ticket
A passenger travelling out off peak and back off peak will pay £9.80 compared to £9.60 at present. Small difference but nothing to be too worried about
A passenger travelling out off peak but back in the evening peak will pay £12.40 compared to £9.90 at present. An increase of 25%
A weekend traveller will pay £9.80 compared to £7.00 at present. An increase of 40%

It gets even worse for railcard holders especially at weekends where the current railcard discounted fare is £4.60. Use contactless and you'll pay £7.00 - an increase of 52%

Will there be prominently displayed posters at the station advising passengers that contactless is more expensive for some off peak travel and all travel to London at weekends? Of course not, they'll be reassured by the local MP and SoS for Transport who'll tell them that Contactless will make their journeys cheaper.

In one story this week he makes reference to contactless 'Oyster' (his use of quotes) as if to link the two. Talk about a good way to confuse people who may think Oyster is coming to WGC when it isn't.

Plus, Hadley Wood is still the end of zone 6 so season ticket holders with a Z1-6 Travelcard on Oyster will use PAYG credit to go to Potters Bar I assume. Any idea how much this is?
 

MikeWh

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It gets even worse for railcard holders especially at weekends where the current railcard discounted fare is £4.60. Use contactless and you'll pay £7.00 - an increase of 52%
There are NO discounts for railcard holders using contactless, so they would pay £9.80 - an increase of over 100%.
Will / do GTR revenue protection teams have the means to check whether someone’s contactless card has been ‘touched in’ ?
No. Nothing is written to a contactless card. The RID (revenue inspection device) records that it has checked the card and sends that to the central system. The end of day processing will charge an incomplete journey if the card was not touched in at that time. Get 3 of those and the card is blacklisted.
 

Hadders

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There are NO discounts for railcard holders using contactless, so they would pay £9.80 - an increase of over 100%.

You are quite correct, my bad!

This is quite scandalous. I bet weekend travellers at Brookmans Park are happily tapping in with their Contactless cards in the mistaken belief that it’s cheaper. That was certainly my experience at Hertford East last weekend.
 

MikeWh

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As part of updating http://faremap.ml, I noticed there was a lack of 'avoid zone 1' fares from Brookmans Park. I have generally found better deals opening up from BPK if I split at New Southgate/Arnos Grove. It is unfortunate how much split ticketing is a thing with BPK, due to the lack of 'avoiding zone 1' routes.
Thanks for confirming it's not just me struggling to find alternative routes for Brookmans Park.
Bad news @drspa44: You'll need to re-read the Brookmans Park data. All the avoiding zone 1 fares, as well as avoiding Underground or not in zone 1 are now present. I only found this out this evening when the website predicted me being charged £7.30 rather than £4.90 for my return trip from Brookmans Park after changing Underground to National Rail at London Bridge.

The good news is that the readers at Brookmans Park are very clear about what can and can't be used.IMG_20190902_215929.jpg

Also, there is a poster explaining that if you've arrived on Oyster you should buy a paper ticket for your journey and then send a copy to TfL for a refund of the maximum fare.
 

drspa44

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Bad news @drspa44: You'll need to re-read the Brookmans Park data. All the avoiding zone 1 fares, as well as avoiding Underground or not in zone 1 are now present. I only found this out this evening when the website predicted me being charged £7.30 rather than £4.90 for my return trip from Brookmans Park after changing Underground to National Rail at London Bridge.

The good news is that the readers at Brookmans Park are very clear about what can and can't be used.View attachment 68108

Also, there is a poster explaining that if you've arrived on Oyster you should buy a paper ticket for your journey and then send a copy to TfL for a refund of the maximum fare.
It's good news for me, as some of the fares I was interested in are now the same price as from Potters Bar.

I have updated http://faremap.ml to reflect the changes.

The information on the readers are clear, but I fear over a decade of muscle memory and association of the yellow logo with Oyster will mean people won't read it unless they have to. I suspect Brookmans Park don't get many non-English speaking tourists, but Luton will. I don't suppose anyone knows what message it returns if you try to tap an Oyster card?

The TfL tube and rail map now shows Brookmans Park with a small, easily-missed note about it being contactless-only. https://tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/images/london-rail-and-tube-services-map.gif
 

Paul Kelly

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Of course, a passenger travelling out in the morning peak but back before the evening peak will pay £12.40 compared to £15.00 at present. A saving of over 20%
In a similar vein, unless I've missed something, a passenger travelling out in the early morning peak, able to touch in before 06:30, and back before the evening peak will pay £9.80 compared to £15 - a saving of almost 35% over the Anytime Day Return - and, if this journey was made 5 days per week, a saving of 13.5% over a weekly season?
 

Hadders

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In a similar vein, unless I've missed something, a passenger travelling out in the early morning peak, able to touch in before 06:30, and back before the evening peak will pay £9.80 compared to £15 - a saving of almost 35% over the Anytime Day Return - and, if this journey was made 5 days per week, a saving of 13.5% over a weekly season?

Fair comment and benefits users of 4 trains, if you include the 06:35 and make the assumption that a passenger will tap in before 06:30 to get a cheaper fare. However bear in mind that this in no way makes up for the huge increases faced by leisure users, particularly at weekends.
 

JonathanH

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One observation from me that I wasn't sure about.

I was 'bashing' 717s yesterday evening between Potters Bar and Finsbury Park for 10 miles and touched out at Potters Bar a number of times to reach the £18.80 off-peak day cap (which isn't of itself great value relative to the £15.20 off-peak day travelcard unless you are going to make multiple trips to Potters Bar).

When I touched out at Redhill later, I was capped at £20.50 so Potters Bar is 'inside' the Redhill zone for capping purposes (and presumably the same applies for all the other 'zones'). I would not have been surprised if the cap had been set at (Zone 1-6 cap) plus (Potters Bar less Zone 1-6) plus (Redhill cap less Zone 1-6).
 

JonathanH

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Fair comment and benefits users of 4 trains, if you include the 06:35 and make the assumption that a passenger will tap in before 06:30 to get a cheaper fare. However bear in mind that this in no way makes up for the huge increases faced by leisure users, particularly at weekends.

I have wondered whether buying a cheap gold card, then travelling at the railcard discount off-peak fare before 06.30 out and after 19.00 back would work out as a really cheap fare for a daily commuter on some of these extended Oyster routes.
 

Hadders

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I have wondered whether buying a cheap gold card, then travelling at the railcard discount off-peak fare before 06.30 out and after 19.00 back would work out as a really cheap fare for a daily commuter on some of these extended Oyster routes.

It would certainly work for places like Potters Bar, Watford, Shenfield etc.
 

JonathanH

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It would certainly work for places like Potters Bar, Watford, Shenfield etc.

I do wonder how long this off-peak before 0630 thing will continue. If I was a pricing manager, I would be pushing really hard to make it 0530.
 
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MikeWh

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When I touched out at Redhill later, I was capped at £20.50 so Potters Bar is 'inside' the Redhill zone for capping purposes (and presumably the same applies for all the other 'zones'). I would not have been surprised if the cap had been set at (Zone 1-6 cap) plus (Potters Bar less Zone 1-6) plus (Redhill cap less Zone 1-6).
That's the way Oyster currently works, which is why further extensions are impossible before the back office goes live. Oyster believes that there are 14 concentric zones around London. Potters Bar is zone 11, Redhill zone 13.
 

Hadders

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I do wonder how long this off-peak before 0630 thing will continue. If I was a pricing manager, I would be pushing really hard to make it 0530.

On the other hand it's an easy way of spreading the peak loading out so not necessarily a bad thing.
 
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