We kept getting told that there are lightly loaded, yet whenever I've been on one or seen one they seem to have plenty of punters seemingly heading for the airport. And then let us not forget that the airport is planning somewhere around a 40% expansion in traffic, so add the potential to the 25%+ growth seen on the TPE airport services and that makes a lot more people. As I have said, the TOC is not going to give up this lucrative route. And Greater Manchester also benefits from growth there, so its there to stay
Do you honestly believe Manchester airport only serves Greater Manchester? People travel from all over the north of England and even Scotland to take flights from there. In the next few years they are expecting to handle up to 50 million passengers, even now they handle 30 million. Why does this airport's passenger base surprise so many members?
re the above two points - nobody is saying that there's *no* market to the Airport - it's just that some of us are trying to explain that the passenger numbers don't justify all of the services currently thrown at it (at a time when plenty of other lines have insufficient stock.
Thirty million passengers is a big number but there are under five million train passengers per annum - divide those by the number of trains serving the airport and you have thirtysomethibng passengers on each train - now, maybe we should all believe Manchester Airport Group's PR and assume their forecast of fifty million passengers, but even if the trains see a corresponding increase in passengers (i.e. not spreading the passengers amongst additional services like the proposed Bradford one), that forty percent increase still means there'd be spare seats if all nine trains per hour were single 153s - which means there are currently quite a lot of seats on a 5x26m 802.
Whichever way you want to use the numbers, there are going to be a lot of empty seats on Airport trains - maybe ninety percent of seats on an 802 are going to be spare - maybe if you buy into the spin, it'll only be eighty five percent of seats that are empty, but that feels a waste of resources when people are struggling to find a seat on other services (and can't even physically board some services).
Again, to avoid doubt, I'm not saying that's
no demand, I'm not saying that there are
no passengers, just that the passenger numbers don't justify the current service level (and therefore, it we are looking to thin out some services to deal with all of the congestion).
What is needed is a review of all services through Manchester. For example the Liverpool - Crewe is only there really because Northern can use EMUs throughout, is there really a need for it otherwise? That could easily be split again, making the Chat Moss section terminate at Victoria until the wires go further east, and the Styal Line section go back to being started at Piccadilly, and probably easier to make closer to a clock face service. One path through Castlefield released. And then there is the obsession with Southport being connected to the rest of the universe, this is one that could immediately be rerouted and / or combined with shorter east facing services through Manchester. Quite honestly Leeds doesn't need a Southport service (or to be honest a Chester one), so some rationalisation is possible there too. Now we have freed up two paths
That would be a step in the right direction (but would keep up the number of services on the Airport branch)
Well I've said it before someone needs to tell Manchester Airport Group (owned by the councils of Greater Manchester), because a lot of their expansion plains involve shipping punters in from afar, and in growing numbers on those airport trains. Tipping punters off at Victoria to make their own way across Manchester will kill this growing market stone dead
It's amazing that southerners manage to get to Airport, given the way that Stansted and Heathrow don't have long distance services from every village in a fifty mile radius (Gatwick and Luton are obviously on main lines but even so Luton Airport won't be getting any services from Leicester/ Derby/ Nottingham)
Even if it were quadrupled (plats 15/16) you still run into issues at the junctions at either end which are not grade separated
Good point - I'm really unconvinced that 15/16 are the priority that a lot of people think they are.
And if there are large numbers of people travelling long distance between Liverpool/Preston to Leeds/York/Newcastle etc., is there not scope to provide trains using the Bentham<>Leeds line instead to relieve congestion around Manchester?
Maybe we should be looking to double the service from West Yorkshire to Burnley/ Blackburn and the WCML at Preston (if the SELRAP suggestions of amazingly untapped demand from the Burnley area to Leeds etc
Agreed. The Liverpool-Crewe stopping service since the May 2018 through Manchester simply hasn't worked. As I understand the only reason it exists is Newton-Le-Willows required a direct service to Manchester Airport as part of the Train Service Requirements. It was a theoretical route devised by the DfT simply to tick a box rather than it being a service which could work in a sense.
Thirty three services from Manchester Airport to Manchester shall also call at Liverpool Lime
Street. Of these, eighteen shall also call at Deansgate and Newton-le-Willows and fifteen
shall also call at Warrington Central.
Dividing the west side via Victoria (potentially onto Stalybridge as it was pre-May 2018 I believe) and terminating south side into Piccadilly (as it was pre-May 2018) would increase its reliability and lessen impact on other 'fast' services to the Airport. Additionally, this would have the added benefit of releasing a much-needed path through Castlefield which should result in improved punctuality.
I agree with the suggestion - but you do highlight one of the big problems with the Northern franchise - the messy combination of hourly services that clog up Greater Manchester are mainly due to the franchise specification (as demanded by the various "stakeholders") rather than decisions directly made by Northern - get rid of Arriva if you want but you'll struggle to find someone else capable of getting a decent tune out of a franchise hamstrung by all of these requirements/ demands. But Northern can't make the changes unilaterally.
A rather bemusing comment given Network Rail have declared the corridor
through Manchester officially 'congested' - the only corridor in the UK to be called as such. A lot of the delays in
Liverpool,
Blackpool,
Preston,
Leeds,
Nottingham et al are arise because of delays through Manchester. Generally these delays exacerbate as the journey continues due to them being out of position. Not so much a 'need' but a solution that is clearly required.
I agree that something needs to be done - at the moment every corridor will get affected by a minor delay on the Airport branch - all of these hourly services will fall over and stock will be out of place, staff due their breaks, no resilience, it's very hard to bounce back when something goes wrong.
Look at what works, copy it, don't be afraid to inconvenience a small number of people in Middlesbrough who want direct trains to the Airport for their annual holiday if it means you can provide a more reliable service to the
significantly larger number of people in northern England who rely on the train for their daily commute.