Crossrail opening delayed (opening date not yet known)

[Class 170101]

Wonder how many people will do Stratford -> CW via Crossrail. Should be quicker than Jubilee line (especially if you are already on NR/Central line at stratford).

3ish mins to Whitechapel, then over the other side of the platform to CW in another 3 mins. Considering how annoying stratford station is to get around and the Class 345s have air con in summer, I think it will be pretty popular over Jubilee/DLR.

Jubilee Line will be a starter train at Stratford in the morning as where as the Crossrail trains coming from the west heading east will be busy already (at Whitechapel). The same reason as I noted above why The Liverpool Street High Level Starters will be busy in the evening peak with people thinking they can get a seat or a bigger piece of personal space.

In the evening one might head west to Whitechapel on emptyish arrivals from Abbey Wood before joining the crowded trains at Whitechapel to head east but given that there will be more trains at Stratford to choose from to head east compared to Whitechapel I can't see much pressure relief for the Jubilee Line to be honest in either peak.

 

[Chris M]

Wonder how many people will do Stratford -> CW via Crossrail. Should be quicker than Jubilee line (especially if you are already on NR/Central line at stratford).

3ish mins to Whitechapel, then over the other side of the platform to CW in another 3 mins. Considering how annoying stratford station is to get around and the Class 345s have air con in summer, I think it will be pretty popular over Jubilee/DLR.

It will in part depend on where in the CW area people are travelling to - the south side of the main estate axis the Jubilee line will continue to win I think, north of that Crossrail will be preferred while those to the west, or heading towards Lewisham will continue to prefer the DLR.

 

[ijmad]

Jubilee Line will be a starter train at Stratford in the morning as where as the Crossrail trains coming from the west heading east will be busy already (at Whitechapel). The same reason as I noted above why The Liverpool Street High Level Starters will be busy in the evening peak with people thinking they can get a seat or a bigger piece of personal space.

The Jubilee Line beyond Canary Wharf in the mornings is pretty quiet a the moment so I suspect it'll cope with the extra flows.

Personally I want to see what happens to Canada Water - it's regularly suffering from dangerous levels of overcrowding in the morning peaks now, to the extent that some Northbound Overgrounds are skipping it, and announcements are being made about avoiding it. A huge number of passengers alighting at CW just want to go one stop east to Canary Wharf. However it seems very unlikely we'll see many passengers willing to stay on the Overground to Whitechapel, unless their offices are much nearer the Crossrail station than the Jubilee. The Lizzie line should capture anyone from the southeastern Overground branches who wants to commute up to the Olympic Park, but there aren't that many of us. I suppose it will take some passengers off the Jubilee Line from central London so there is some hope for extra space on the trains.

Interestingly I note there will be three different direct routes from Bond Street to Stratford when we add in the Elizabeth Line. A good future pub quiz question as excluding the shared sections between the Met/H&C/Circle that doesn't happen anywhere else I don't think!

 

[greatkingrat]

Euston - Stockwell? Only two lines but essentially three seperate routes if you count via CX and via Bank as separate.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It's better than nothing, but isn't going to be as effective as running more core trains on the Shenfield branch in the peak direction (which is the opposite direction to the peak direction on the less busy branch via Canary Wharf, meaning they can both see a peak increase if necessary without being at the expense of the other).

Are you suggestion you run extra peak train from Shenfield and to Abbey Wood in the mornings and vice versa in the evenings, but not in the opposite directions? I don't think that will work very well - unless you are able to teleport trains to Shenfield once they've reached Abbey Wood

 

[TommyL4]

Are you suggestion you run extra peak train from Shenfield and to Abbey Wood in the mornings and vice versa in the evenings, but not in the opposite directions? I don't think that will work very well - unless you are able to teleport trains to Shenfield once they've reached Abbey Wood

In the long run, indeed. But for like an hour or so, sticking to asymmetrical service patterns is feasible as long as some extra stabling space exists on both ends, and the service can be then gradually adjusted during the off-peak period.

 

[si404]

Are you suggestion you run extra peak train from Shenfield and to Abbey Wood in the mornings and vice versa in the evenings, but not in the opposite directions? I don't think that will work very well - unless you are able to teleport trains to Shenfield once they've reached Abbey Wood

I did specifically point out that issue before I'd even described that proposal.

Ideally you'd just up each branch by 4tph each way, which gives the same service levels on the branches but doesn't trap stock, though this would be the obvious intermediate stage if they get the line up to 28tph but not 32tph - put the extra trains where they'd be most used.

In the long run, indeed. But for like an hour or so, sticking to asymmetrical service patterns is feasible as long as some extra stabling space exists on both ends, and the service can be then gradually adjusted during the off-peak period.

Indeed. You could probably do it for an hour and a half (depending on how much space there is at Plumstead sidings), which would be enough.

It would be relatively expensive in trains (one for each service), but people seem OK for there to be 3 or 4 trains used to provide the 4tph peak-direction-only Liverpool St High Level service, a service that quite a bit less than half the benefit.

 

[si404]

Jubilee Line will be a starter train at Stratford in the morning as where as the Crossrail trains coming from the west heading east will be busy already (at Whitechapel).

Sure, but 3 minutes standing on a busy train is tolerable - you'll be walking through crowds at cramped Stratford for that long. If you have a seat on the Liz, you'd probably stay on and use Whitechapel. It's about 5 minutes less on the train.

There's all sorts of different things, but I can see the via Whitechapel route being quite popular.

The Jubilee Line beyond Canary Wharf in the mornings is pretty quiet a the moment so I suspect it'll cope with the extra flows.

At the very least, via Whitechapel is something people will consider, and some will choose to use it instead of the Jubilee. Extra flows isn't what we're talking about really - it's whether a reduction will happen or not.

The same reason as I noted above why The Liverpool Street High Level Starters will be busy in the evening peak with people thinking they can get a seat or a bigger piece of personal space.

Except these trains aren't busy now in the evening peak, with people preferring to stand on the rammed Central line and change cross-platform onto TfL Rail and perhaps stand until they are further out of London.

 

[jellybaby]

Does that even exist anymore (Shenfield excepted, but they'd just use the fasts)? And, AFAICS, it's only Brentwood and Shenfield that have a cheaper fare to Liverpool Street NR than to other zone 1 stations (at peak times only).

Seasons tickets are very different.

Chadwell Heath to Liverpool Street is £1792. A zone 1-5 travelcard is £2468. Worth walking a stop or two for a lot of people.

 

[Taunton]

The Jubilee Line beyond Canary Wharf in the mornings is pretty quiet a the moment so I suspect it'll cope with the extra flows.

Most certainly not on the westbound - it's common to be unable to get in for multiple trains at Canning Town, and worse at North Greenwich.

The opposite direction in the evenings suffers from the reversal of about 1 in 4 at North Greenwich, leading to gross overcrowding on the next Stratford service and inability to get in at Canary Wharf, where there is what must be the best self-managed queueing at each door on the whole Underground. Unfortunately those in a North Greenwich train, which is sometimes advised en-route, are told to change at Canary Wharf for the following service, to do so on the same platform - whereupon they find they are joining a queue that will take a couple of trains to get them back to the front.

Crossrail can't come too soon to overcome all this. Unfortunately the huge Canary Wharf expansion at Wood Wharf, now reaching completion, with much of both commercial and residential already leased, was wholly predicated in its planning approvals on Crossrail providing more access, which is now not going to happen in time. Wood Wharf - finished right on time. Crossrail - not. The fibs perpetrated by the Crossrail team about on time completion until the last second are particularly aggravating to those who had committed to here. I wouldn't be surprised if eventually there is legal action over it.

Regarding the local service on the GEML, now TfL Rail, back in the 1960s with the larger 9-car 306 units, there were three trains per 10 minutes in the peak, with some clever skip-stopping which speeded journeys. Now, 50 years on, there are to be only two trains per 10 minutes all stopping everywhere. What a step back.

 

[Horizon22]

The Jubilee Line beyond Canary Wharf in the mornings is pretty quiet a the moment so I suspect it'll cope with the extra flows.

Most certainly not on the westbound - it's common to be unable to get in for multiple trains at Canning Town, and worse at North Greenwich.

As mentioned this really isn't the case although I presume you are actually talking about different directions.

Personally I want to see what happens to Canada Water - it's regularly suffering from dangerous levels of overcrowding in the morning peaks now, to the extent that some Northbound Overgrounds are skipping it, and announcements are being made about avoiding it. A huge number of passengers alighting at CW just want to go one stop east to Canary Wharf. However it seems very unlikely we'll see many passengers willing to stay on the Overground to Whitechapel, unless their offices are much nearer the Crossrail station than the Jubilee. The Lizzie line should capture anyone from the southeastern Overground branches who wants to commute up to the Olympic Park, but there aren't that many of us. I suppose it will take some passengers off the Jubilee Line from central London so there is some hope for extra space on the trains.

It is interesting to see this even in the off-peak on a LO service when half the train can spill out here trying to join an already busy eastbound Jubilee train. It's surprising / fascinating to see how well a station built brand new only 20 years now seems woefully under capacity. Southern services on the ELL to London Bridge are significantly quieter. I think recently there was also some uprorar as it's got political and a new development is planned around the area. As you say I doubt people are going to go several stops up to Whitechapel if they want to go East, but perhaps if they do West.

Crossrail can't come too soon to overcome all this. Unfortunately the huge Canary Wharf expansion at Wood Wharf, now reaching completion, with much of both commercial and residential already leased, was wholly predicated in its planning approvals on Crossrail providing more access, which is now not going to happen in time. Wood Wharf - finished right on time. Crossrail - not.

Much like the vast numbers of people who have moved to new developments in Abbey Wood / Woolwich and are trundling in on already overcrowded SE services for a couple of years longer than they expected. In fact they've had a double whammy with the SE franchise delay and any new metro stock delayed.

 

[Class 170101]

Except these trains aren't busy now in the evening peak, with people preferring to stand on the rammed Central line and change cross-platform onto TfL Rail and perhaps stand until they are further out of London.

Seasons tickets are very different.

Chadwell Heath to Liverpool Street is£1792. A zone 1-5 travelcard is £2468. Worth walking a stop or two for a lot of people.

Except for this reason I think Liverpool Street starters will be busy they don't all use the Central Line or will divert to Crossrail. Some walk due to cost difference and to be honest walking to some of the surrounding areas its quicker to walk than use the tube. Others use the Circle and would probably prefer a starter than an already crowded train coming from Farringdon, Tottenham Court Road and Bond Street.

 

[PG]

Crossrail can't come too soon to overcome all this. Unfortunately the huge Canary Wharf expansion at Wood Wharf, now reaching completion, with much of both commercial and residential already leased, was wholly predicated in its planning approvals on Crossrail providing more access, which is now not going to happen in time. Wood Wharf - finished right on time. Crossrail - not. The fibs perpetrated by the Crossrail team about on time completion until the last second are particularly aggravating to those who had committed to here. I wouldn't be surprised if eventually there is legal action over it.

Does make you wonder that if the planning authorities had been aware earlier of the delay to Crossrail, if they would have been able to prevent lettings or occupation of premises at Wood Wharf?

 

[Taunton]

Does make you wonder that if the planning authorities had been aware earlier of the delay to Crossrail, if they would have been able to prevent lettings or occupation of premises at Wood Wharf?

There's no ability or powers for a planning authority (in this case jointly Tower Hamlets and The Mayor) to vary planning conditions retrospectively like this. Once the permission was given Canary Wharf Group, who own the whole thing, would have entered into all sorts of legal contracts to build and lease it.

CWG, of course, were also the partners with building the Crossrail station, and would have had LADs (construction compensation damages) in the contract against CWG not completing their part on time and delaying the Crossrail project. There would have been something in there as well about Crossrail keeping their side of the bargain. LADs work both ways. Incidentally, it's understood the current attitude at the Wharf is "never trust TfL again".

 

[si404]

I think Liverpool Street starters will be busy they don't all use the Central Line or will divert to Crossrail.

But as TfL Rail aren't busy now on the relevant section, why would the residual services become busy there when the destinations they serve also have direct services straight to/from the Crossrail core?

Chadwell Heath to Liverpool Street is £1792. A zone 1-5 travelcard is £2468. Worth walking a stop or two for a lot of people.

Is there a Chadwell Heath - Z1&2 season ticket? Jumping from a specific point to point to a zonal season is always going to mean a big uplift in prices - because it also means a big uplift in validity.

If the commute is going to be all you use it for (with other journeys rare) then it's absolutely worth walking a bit to avoid the extra cost, but "a lot of people" isn't that large a proportion currently using TfL Rail. And nothing is going to change that will tip more people towards going into Liverpool St terminus. I guess the reduced number of services to Liverpool Street HL might increase loadings per train, but they'd also put people off (being the bare minimum TUAG rate), lowering total take up.

I guess a lot depends on ticket validity - if the NR route via Whitechapel between Chadwell Heath and Liverpool Street is allowed on point-to-point seasons that would be very different to if it isn't wrt loadings on the residual services into Liverpool St terminus (if it is, then those saving money with a Liverpool St only ticket can board any train, rather than wait for the specific ones). If it isn't, any off-peak/counter-peak travel would require a change at Stratford, which would be annoying! (incidentally, will Liverpool St be a valid London Terminal for services routed via Abbey Wood? I'd imagine that Paddington LL would be for services on the GWML).

 

[Class 170101]

But as TfL Rail aren't busy now on the relevant section, why would the residual services become busy there when the destinations they serve also have direct services straight to/from the Crossrail core?

The residual services will be busy as there are fewer of them than there are now (16tph vs 4/6tph). Now some people that may walk towards Barbician may be persuaded to use Crossrail throughout but I doubt it will be all.

 

[samuelmorris]

Wonder how many people will do Stratford -> CW via Crossrail. Should be quicker than Jubilee line (especially if you are already on NR/Central line at stratford).

3ish mins to Whitechapel, then over the other side of the platform to CW in another 3 mins. Considering how annoying stratford station is to get around and the Class 345s have air con in summer, I think it will be pretty popular over Jubilee/DLR.

I'd consider trying it as an experiment, but bear in mind changing to the jubilee at Stratford means you can leave it an extra 2 minutes and board an empty train for a seat. Joining the Elizabeth line at Whitechapel in the morning will likely be heaving - better perhaps to do it the other way round, use the jubilee from Stratford in the morning, then the Elizabeth via Whitechapel in the evening.

 

[si404]

I'd consider trying it as an experiment, but bear in mind changing to the jubilee at Stratford means you can leave it an extra 2 minutes and board an empty train for a seat.

True, but if you have a seat on the Liz already, it's only 3 minutes standing on the next train (which will be less busy than the one you get off of). You'll probably be walking in the crush at Stratford for nearly that long.

And obviously if you'd happily wait 2 minutes for a seat, then you wouldn't care that the Jubilee will take longer than going via Whitechapel.

 

[samuelmorris]

True, but if you have a seat on the Liz already, it's only 3 minutes standing on the next train (which will be less busy than the one you get off of). You'll probably be walking in the crush at Stratford for nearly that long.

And obviously if you'd happily wait 2 minutes for a seat, then you wouldn't care that the Jubilee will take longer than going via Whitechapel.

Indeed, certainly for me coming from Brentwood I would bias my journeys to use Crossrail as far as possible before changing as I can reliably get a seat AM. PM seat loading remains to be seen but I wouldn't be surprised if it remains the case that it gets busier as you go further East until after Stratford.

On the other hand, for me it's also sometimes quicker to use GA services (which are already quieter than TfL even before their new fleet is introduced) and turn back at Shenfield. The increased frequency of stopping services only makes that more attractive as there is no longer the risk of a 10 minute wait at Shenfield negating the benefit if you time it wrong.

 

[Steddenm]

Was on a Slough to Pad TfL service the other day and the announcements welcomed you aboard the "Elizabeth Line service". Thought that was a bit odd. Another passenger said this was common on some trains.

 

[matt_world2004]

Was on a Slough to Pad TfL service the other day and the announcements welcomed you aboard the "Elizabeth Line service". Thought that was a bit odd. Another passenger said this was common on some trains.

Someone's programmed the pis wrong as there are recordings stating TfL rail.

 

[samuelmorris]

Someone's programmed the pis wrong as there are recordings stating TfL rail.

Yes we have the TfL Rail ones this side, even if they are shoddily recorded.

 

[kevin_roche]

The latest update on the delivery of Crossrail was given by Mark Wild to the TfL Board yesterday. I thought the verbal report by Mark Wild was quite positive and I have already added links to the recording of the meeting on the Class 345 progress thread.

A couple of other websites have also highlighted other aspects, Building notes the statements from Mark Wild about the amount of work still to be completed in integration of the various part of the system.

There are thousands of defects that still need to be fixed across the Crossrail network, the boss of the £18bn project has admitted.

Chief executive Mark Wild said that while most of the stations, portals and shafts were substantially complete, the project teams are now beginning the "inevitable" task of tackling issues with the work.

"The issue we have now is that we have several thousand defects, bugs and observations that do need to be cleared out," he said.

"To give one example of why this is so challenging: our CCTV system has 20,000 assets, our PA system has 17,000 assets – and they need to all work together in the event we need to evacuate one of our stations."

It seems strange to me that anyone is surprised by this. Every time you connect two things from different manufacturers that is always the unknown thing. It could work straight away or take weeks to debug.

New Civil Engineer is more positive and says:

“The central section remains on schedule to be substantially complete by the end of the first quarter this year, except for Bond Street and Whitechapel stations where work will continue until the end of 2020,” the minutes state. “Fit-out is nearing completion at many stations with all physical works very nearly complete in the tunnels, shafts and portals.”

The minutes add that “good progress” is being made with software, signalling and train system integration with “trial running” anticipation to begin this autumn.

The report adds: “After Trial Running, a final phase known as Trial Operations is required before the Elizabeth line can open for passenger service.

“Trial Operations involves people being invited onto trains and stations to test real-time service scenarios.”

Trial Operations is scheduled to last between nine to 12 months and will involve training for maintenance and training teams before handover is complete.

I think they must have that wrong. I thought Trial Running was 9 to 12 months and Trial Operations was a much shorter time.

 

[daikilo]

It seems strange to me that anyone is surprised by this. Every time you connect two things from different manufacturers that is always the unknown thing. It could work straight away or take weeks to debug.

In the industry I previously worked in, we spent £millions breaking down problems into manageable packages then, where there remained a real risk, doing simulations either in reduced scale or full. If this was not done then I agree that unpredicted "bugs" or even incompatibilities will occur. In my opinion it is inadmissible for an £18B project and will be likewise for HS2. And, it is almost never too late to risk manage.

 

[Snow1964]

The latest update on the delivery of Crossrail was given by Mark Wild to the TfL Board yesterday. I thought the verbal report by Mark Wild was quite positive and I have already added links to the recording of the meeting on the Class 345 progress thread.

I think they must have that wrong. I thought Trial Running was 9 to 12 months and Trial Operations was a much shorter time.

There is a YouTube video issued last week, where it refers to the trial running as a 16 train per hour service starting in the Autumn

So it seems term is being used for a full test service operating, trial operations must therefore be using a crowd of people to represent passengers

I would guess the trial Operations is test people given specific tasks (everything from falling on escalators to getting bags caught in doors etc) to see how the staff react.

 

[kevin_roche]

There is a YouTube video issued last week, where it refers to the trial running as a 16 train per hour service starting in the Autumn

So it seems term is being used for a full test service operating, trial operations must therefore be using a crowd of people to represent passengers

I would guess the trial Operations is test people given specific tasks (everything from falling on escalators to getting bags caught in doors etc) to see how the staff react.

Thanks I'll watch the video again when I get chance this evening.

 

[D365]

What are the odds on Crossrail becoming a "British" Berlin-Brandenburg.

Or have we already reached that stage?

 

[Esker-pades]

What are the odds on Crossrail becoming a "British" Berlin-Brandenburg.

Or have we already reached that stage?

I don't think so. I think that title may well be reserved for bits of HS2.

 

[Domeyhead]

I've got a lot of time for Bob Mortimer - sorry Mark Wild - since he took over Crossrail in 2019, so this is definitely not a criticism of him and his team since they took over, but looking at the latest (February 2020) station progress videos on YouTube some stations, especially Whitechapel, are still building sites, and most stations are still PPE zones, so how the heck could the previous Crossrail team maintain the charade (until they were "invited to stand down") that Crossrail was going to open in 2018 - or even 2019? It was impossible for them not to know this was never going to happen - and this also goes for TFL and Mayor of London - with each of them maintaining some kind of stand off waiting for the other to go public and take the flak - must have gone on for nearly a year, with project meetings simply updating RAG status reports and executives keeping their heads down. That is now all history. The problem is that the project directors and executives slimply slip away to new projects with severances paid up, and bonusses and pensions intact, when the wilful cover up is of such a scale that this should be seen as criminal negligence, or fraud. Is anybody pursuing the personnel concerned for how this happened? I would dearly like to hear that an investigative journalist is doorstepping the former Crossrail Management for explanations, because what I've seen on Youtube is an absolute criminal disgrace and many of the people responsible are actually even richer than if the project had been a success.

 

[ArchieWoodbine]

I'm not saying that this holds exactly true for Crossrail specifically, but there's a bit of blame for both sides really: those producing the progress reports and those setting & receiving them. As long as some work is being done, it can be easy to hide productive progress towards a single milestone if the KPI is badly set and the contractor goes after the low-hanging fruit first. I've seen this on other railway construction projects where there are vast quantities of particular items/materials involved.

Say, for instance, I was in charge of a construction site and I had a weekly KPI for tonnage of re-bar to be installed in preperation for a series of seperate concrete pours. The logical approach would be to complete each section 100% in-turn (to enable the pour) and then move onto the next area. However, say there's a technical issue that prevents me completing each of the installations beyond 95%.

But, I want to keep getting paid and reporting good progress so instead of flagging this and halting works, I press on with installing as much remaining rebar as I can prior to the resolution of the issue. To the outside observer I'm precisely on-plan for the tonnage of rebar I should be installing; it's only when you delve into the detail do you see that none of my installations are fully complete and I've been going after the low-hanging fuit to keep the numbers-up. At the end of the day, my 95% installed rebar is as good for a concrete pour as 0% complete - it's all or northing. Finally, the issue with the last 5% is resolved and it entails removing lots of the previously installed re-bar and starting again.

This is how delays go un-noticed and snowball into bigger issues on large construction sites, dealing with vast quantities, in an organisation with a very removed management team solely reliant on the information provided by others.