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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

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nidave

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that HS2 will be full from day one, but will not serve many substantial urban areas, will serve others inadequately, and will in some cases lead to a worse service for the cities concerned

So if the trains are full from day 1 with the current proposed destinations how will adding more destinations help. Won't these people not be able to board a full service. Also these people who were taking up space on the trains going to places like Manchester, Birmingham etc.. A good number will move to hs2, therefore they will be able to have a better service with more space.
 
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class26

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So if the trains are full from day 1 with the current proposed destinations how will adding more destinations help. Won't these people not be able to board a full service. Also these people who were taking up space on the trains going to places like Manchester, Birmingham etc.. A good number will move to hs2, therefore they will be able to have a better service with more space.

............and of course if it is full from day 1 that means it has been confounded the doom mongers and we had better start planning for its successor NOW !
 

si404

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That depends on the signalling used, amongst a number of other factors, not just the line speed.
Indeed, I believe a major constraint on HS2 pathing is airflow issues only allowing 1 train between ventshafts in the bored tunnels between Old Oak and South Heath. Therefore lower speed means longer to clear the section between shafts and thus either higher costs to build more shafts or longer headways and less frequency! I'm sure 300km/h isn't a problem, but slower might be.

And, as the line's alignment is designed, lowering the minimum design standard is pointless as a cost-saving exercise as costs of redesigning will cancel out what small savings in cost might be achieved (especially as we've already done a round or two of value engineering looking at things like lower speed alignments in places). Where there might be a saving is rolling stock, but the plan was always to go with what already existed and then modify that for stuff like level boarding when it came to train spec setting, rather than ask for 400km/h just because that's the design speed. 300km/h will be fine, for now. By 2200 (which is closer to now than the WCML to Euston opening) they will probably running trains that can and do do more than 400km/h on the alignment.
 

MarkyT

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Indeed, I believe a major constraint on HS2 pathing is airflow issues only allowing 1 train between ventshafts in the bored tunnels between Old Oak and South Heath. Therefore lower speed means longer to clear the section between shafts and thus either higher costs to build more shafts or longer headways and less frequency! I'm sure 300km/h isn't a problem, but slower might be.

And, as the line's alignment is designed, lowering the minimum design standard is pointless as a cost-saving exercise as costs of redesigning will cancel out what small savings in cost might be achieved (especially as we've already done a round or two of value engineering looking at things like lower speed alignments in places). Where there might be a saving is rolling stock, but the plan was always to go with what already existed and then modify that for stuff like level boarding when it came to train spec setting, rather than ask for 400km/h just because that's the design speed. 300km/h will be fine, for now. By 2200 (which is closer to now than the WCML to Euston opening) they will probably running trains that can and do do more than 400km/h on the alignment.

Agreed deliberately descoping the alignment design speed to simply what track, train and signalling can achieve today economically would be ludicrous. Gentler curvature, in particular, will still be of benefit for wear and tear reduction regardless of the speed attained. Had Brunel caved in and built a much cheaper (say) 60mph limited GWR alignment in the 1840s, today's high-speed services would not have been possible, or the higher costs and complexities of heavier tilt trains would have been required in the 1990s, as on the WCML.
 

TrafficEng

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Also, HS2 will decrease fares
For those who think otherwise, here's some justification for this being the case:
<Snip>

If so, wouldn't it be the case that similar principles should apply to domestic services on HS1, with the additional benefit the line is shared with Eurostar and some freight services to help defray the capital (and maintenance) costs?

Ok, the volumes might be different, but if a passenger only spends half the time on a Javelin than they would on a classic route train then the principles you outlined regarding costs ought to apply. Thus resulting in cheaper fares on the HS1 route.

Does anyone have figures comparing HS1 fares to equivalent classic route fares?

Personally I'd expect the Government to want to recover the billions sunk into HS2 as quickly as possible with HS2 being marketed as a 'premium' service with fares increased to match. The removal of equivalent service capacity on the classic routes creates a captive market that has to pay the increased fares or else endure interminable journeys on the new stopping services we've been promised will populate the classic lines.
 

Purple Orange

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If so, wouldn't it be the case that similar principles should apply to domestic services on HS1, with the additional benefit the line is shared with Eurostar and some freight services to help defray the capital (and maintenance) costs?

Ok, the volumes might be different, but if a passenger only spends half the time on a Javelin than they would on a classic route train then the principles you outlined regarding costs ought to apply. Thus resulting in cheaper fares on the HS1 route.

Does anyone have figures comparing HS1 fares to equivalent classic route fares?

Personally I'd expect the Government to want to recover the billions sunk into HS2 as quickly as possible with HS2 being marketed as a 'premium' service with fares increased to match. The removal of equivalent service capacity on the classic routes creates a captive market that has to pay the increased fares or else endure interminable journeys on the new stopping services we've been promised will populate the classic lines.

The price of HS2 trains will surely be set in order to recover as much cost as possible as quickly as possible, but that does not mean fares will be higher. Higher fares may mean trains that are not full, but lower fares may mean a packed train from day 1. No doubt somebody in HS2 has been doing an analysis of price v volume to establish the optimum price points, which could be lower for an average ticket than it is today, but the train service is brining in the most revenue possible.
 

TrafficEng

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The price of HS2 trains will surely be set in order to recover as much cost as possible as quickly as possible, but that does not mean fares will be higher. Higher fares may mean trains that are not full, but lower fares may mean a packed train from day 1. No doubt somebody in HS2 has been doing an analysis of price v volume to establish the optimum price points, which could be lower for an average ticket than it is today, but the train service is brining in the most revenue possible.

Since posting I've been looking through other parts of this thread and see the subject of fare levels has been a matter of discussion before and appears somewhat controversial.

My take on the posts I've read is there is 'no evidence' that fares will be increased. Which presumably means there is no evidence they will be decreased either.

May be best to park the discussion there then.
 

MarkyT

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Since posting I've been looking through other parts of this thread and see the subject of fare levels has been a matter of discussion before and appears somewhat controversial.

My take on the posts I've read is there is 'no evidence' that fares will be increased. Which presumably means there is no evidence they will be decreased either.

May be best to park the discussion there then.
Fair enough. Current peak time walk-on flexible fares on WCML are already eyewatering, as are equivalent air fares. HS2 merely moves the 'same' fast trains to new infrastructure, so I'd expect fares to be very similar in real terms at similar times of the day. Yield management techniques will, I suspect, incentivise the unloading of some extremely good value tickets at less popular times simply due to the capacity available.
 

Meerkat

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HS2 fares will be yield managed. That is likely to make them initially cheaper in order to fill the significant capacity increase.
My concern is whether competition will be allowed, or whether franchise specs on WCML/Chiltern are fixed to prevent a slower cheaper alternative.
 

Ianno87

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HS2 fares will be yield managed. That is likely to make them initially cheaper in order to fill the significant capacity increase.
My concern is whether competition will be allowed, or whether franchise specs on WCML/Chiltern are fixed to prevent a slower cheaper alternative.

Doesn't stop Chiltern/LNWR today if such a thing were possible...
 

JonathanH

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Personally I'd expect the Government to want to recover the billions sunk into HS2 as quickly as possible with HS2 being marketed as a 'premium' service with fares increased to match. The removal of equivalent service capacity on the classic routes creates a captive market that has to pay the increased fares or else endure interminable journeys on the new stopping services we've been promised will populate the classic lines.

If fares are set higher, it leads to resentment of the investment. 'Why did you build HS2 to make our journeys on the old route that we were totally happy with slower?'

Ten years on from the domestìc services on HS1 starting, services between Tonbridge and Ashford or Bromley South and Medway are still slower than they were before HS1 opened and there aren't more of them.

My concern is whether competition will be allowed, or whether franchise specs on WCML/Chiltern are fixed to prevent a slower cheaper alternative.

The fact that the operator of fast trains on the WCML and HS2 is the same is clearly intended to ensure that the service on the fast lines on the WCML does not compete with the service on HS2.

As for Chiltern / the local operator on the WCML, I think that one of the problems of HS2 in people's minds is the fact that it challenges the current situation.

Should any future fast trains from Newcastle or Leeds to London on HS2 if the later phases don't get scrapped be run by the same operator as the WCML or ECML?
 

The Ham

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I had to sit down and study this post for some time to ascertain just how.many illogical points are made in it.

The point of lower speed is lower cost and higher capacity.

Your point about maintaining highest possible speeds to justify HS2 seeving Leeds and points north raises the question of whether it is the best way to serve places so far off its core route.

You impose this odd arbitrary criterion that any additional paths added to HS2 by increasing capacity must consist of captive services to Manchester and Birmingham. There is no reason whatsoever for that, except maybe you can get the highest absolute number of seats onto HS2 that way. Maybe if the trunk line was cheaper, we could afford a greater extent of captive line, and send more seats to other destinations.

It doesn't seem to worry you that HS2 will be full from day one, but will not serve many substantial urban areas, will serve others inadequately, and will in some cases lead to a worse service for the cities concerned.

I keep asking this question on this forum but no-one ever wants to answer it: donpeople who argue that HS2 must be built without any variation whatsoever from the current plan ever ask themselves why the project has so little support, even among people who want to see more people using rail, and why it has virtually no support outside areas which will have enhanced commuter services to Euston following it, and the handful of cities which will receive captive services to their city centres ? I find this particularly odd on a thread which is meant to be about why people are opposed to HS2. Nobody seems to want to address the actual.thread subject.

Another persistent feature on this thread is that anyone who questions any aspect of HS2 is immediately popped into the 'anti' category. HS2's proponents might perhaps want to reflect on the lack of support for the project and try to get people favourable to the idea of a new north-south line in principle on side.

Why do we need more capacity than double the existing, with then now retained in the existing WCML?

If we slow down the trains to get more capacity, other than the core stations where else will these extra service be able to serve? Given that the existing rail lines are very busy and is the main point of providing a new pair of lines.

It's unlikely that extra services to Scotland could run, or if so maybe one or two.

However if we're gaining 6 that still leaves 4.

Although that's only half the story as the London Leeds/York/Newcastle times won't be faster, so there's likely to be extra paths so as to not over provide capacity. Such could provide extra paths to be used to serve, where exactly?

Before you suggest other urban places which are currently served by WCML services, these will benefit by the majority of long distract services being removed from the WCML. Whilst those which remain will have fewer passengers on board, which then provides more space for those areas.

However if it is such a roaring success then there's going to be a good case for expanding the High Speed lines which we have. However in the meantime we need to create a line which tries to bring the widest number of benefits to as many people as possible. That is likely to look like something which doesn't do everything is trying to do well (Jake of all trades and master of none), however that doesn't mean that we shouldn't build it. What we should do though is to ensure that if we were to expand the network that there is consideration given to how this would work.

I would suggest that there's a lot of opposition from groups of people who fall into some of the following camps:
- those who want to pay as little tax as possible and don't like big infrastructure projects
- those who don't want rail (for many reasons, sometimes linked to the above)
- those who it impacts on that they are being required to move
- those who want to carry on flying and see that HS2 could limit the numbers doing so, which in turn is likely to reduce the number of services available to them
- those who want to stop the over development of the UK or other environmental reasons
- those who think that it will harm the existing rail network (remember that Beeching's idea was to cut the local lines and create a core intercity route to make it profitable)
- those that want better rail for the services which directly benefit them, which HS2 doesn't
- other reasons which I've not identified

On the supporting side there's quite a much shorter list.

Then there's a whole load of people who don't care much either way.

As such the level of support is likely to be, or at least appear, much lower.

Many of those who support HS2 then try and explain why it's needed, why some of the arguments against are flawed and generally try and inform as to why if should gain more support.

Even if that more support is so that those who like driving don't have to share the roads with as many other people are now people then use rail.
 

MarkyT

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Here is the 2011 Andrew McNaughton document for HS2 about headway that the Piers Connor document references:
https://www.chiark.greenend.org.uk/~jdamery/tmp/hs2 minimum headway august2011 v3 1 final.pdf
...
7. Conclusions
On opening of the first section of the network, from London to the West Midlands, operating up to 14 train paths per hour in each direction is comfortably achievable, allowing for the limited number of trains operating
wholly or mainly on dedicated high speed infrastructure and for the build up of experience in the first years of operation. Upon opening of the sections of line to the Manchester and Leeds areas in 2032/3, operation with up to 18 train paths per hour in each direction would be reliably achievable without technical development provided the overall infrastructure system – speed and positioning of turnouts – is as currently proposed. However benefit should be taken from the early adoption of automatic train operation under driver supervision.

From a train control system perspective, more than 18 paths per hour, certainly up to 21 paths per hour could be timetabled. However, the network in 2032/3 would still have a significant proportion of trains using existing
classic railway for material sections of their journey. Whilst it would be possible to account for the reliability risk by introducing additional time in those trains before joining the high speed network, thus insulating it from day-to-day perturbation to a greater extent, this would have a detrimental effect on overall journey times from the destinations concerned. Therefore it is still considered prudent to develop the Y network on the basis of 18 trains per hour normally.

The technical development of ETCS Level 3 (“Moving Block”) train control system would have potential benefit for reduction in lineside infrastructure and hence maintenance workload and cost. However it would be of little practical benefit to signalling headway at the limiting points on the network at junctions. Therefore it is not considered.

Operation at 400kph would be possible at some point in the future without compromising the capacity of the route given assumptions on train braking based on already existing capability. The limiting capacity would continue to be signalling headway at converging junctions.

I do not believe that any additional practical capacity could be created by reducing the operational speed due to the phenomenon that although the braking distance expands with the square of the speed, that distance is covered more quickly as speed increases, so time interval separation, and thus headway frequency, scales far more linearly. The predominant factor is the converging junction speed constraint, and the ability of a train joining the mainline to accelerate to linespeed within a standard path. Clearly, if the mainline speed is a little lower then the speed difference to overcome is smaller, but I don't believe there is any moderate to high-speed intercity operation anywhere that achieves more than about 20tph, which is nearly what HS2 aims to achieve anyway. Any more than that would be operationally fragile, and unabe to recover easily from even the smallest perturbations. I don't really have a strong opinion on what the operational speed should be initially except that it must be achievable by all trains sharing the particular sections concerned to maximise capacity. That could differ on the various Phase 2 sections and compared with the Phase 1 / 2A trunk depending on what the intended traffic mix will be viz a viz Northern Powerhouse / Midlands Engine services that may share various parts of the infrastructure and what rolling stock such operators intend to acquire.
 

AndrewE

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HS2 fares will be yield managed. That is likely to make them initially cheaper in order to fill the significant capacity increase.
My concern is whether competition will be allowed, or whether franchise specs on WCML/Chiltern are fixed to prevent a slower cheaper alternative.
Doesn't stop Chiltern/LNWR today if such a thing were possible...
WCML doesn’t have loads of seats to fill
etc., etc.
There is no doubt that Virgin price-gouging has resulted in some lightly-loaded WCML trains when you would expect peak-hour services to be full-to-bursting (especially given the airline style yield-management that we were told that Franchised TOCs would bring.) In fact they don't give a toss about numbers of passengers transported, just maximum cash yield... Who'd have thought it?
So how well are we going to control the operator of HS2? Please don't say "The Regulator will manage it" because there is hardly one of them that has any credibility at all.
We need a publically-accountable operator with a public transport remit. Nothing else works, as we have found out to our cost.
 

HSTEd

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When you can stack 14+ 400m double deck trains per hour, there is no real way a single main line axis can possibly saturate that.

And that's with intercity seat layouts.

So the line has to pull traffic from all three north-south main lines.
 

B&I

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Why do we need more capacity than double the existing, with then now retained in the existing WCML?

If we slow down the trains to get more capacity, other than the core stations where else will these extra service be able to serve? Given that the existing rail lines are very busy and is the main point of providing a new pair of lines.

It's unlikely that extra services to Scotland could run, or if so maybe one or two.

However if we're gaining 6 that still leaves 4.

Although that's only half the story as the London Leeds/York/Newcastle times won't be faster, so there's likely to be extra paths so as to not over provide capacity. Such could provide extra paths to be used to serve, where exactly?

Before you suggest other urban places which are currently served by WCML services, these will benefit by the majority of long distract services being removed from the WCML. Whilst those which remain will have fewer passengers on board, which then provides more space for those areas.

However if it is such a roaring success then there's going to be a good case for expanding the High Speed lines which we have. However in the meantime we need to create a line which tries to bring the widest number of benefits to as many people as possible. That is likely to look like something which doesn't do everything is trying to do well (Jake of all trades and master of none), however that doesn't mean that we shouldn't build it. What we should do though is to ensure that if we were to expand the network that there is consideration given to how this would work.

I would suggest that there's a lot of opposition from groups of people who fall into some of the following camps:
- those who want to pay as little tax as possible and don't like big infrastructure projects
- those who don't want rail (for many reasons, sometimes linked to the above)
- those who it impacts on that they are being required to move
- those who want to carry on flying and see that HS2 could limit the numbers doing so, which in turn is likely to reduce the number of services available to them
- those who want to stop the over development of the UK or other environmental reasons
- those who think that it will harm the existing rail network (remember that Beeching's idea was to cut the local lines and create a core intercity route to make it profitable)
- those that want better rail for the services which directly benefit them, which HS2 doesn't
- other reasons which I've not identified

On the supporting side there's quite a much shorter list.

Then there's a whole load of people who don't care much either way.

As such the level of support is likely to be, or at least appear, much lower.

Many of those who support HS2 then try and explain why it's needed, why some of the arguments against are flawed and generally try and inform as to why if should gain more support.

Even if that more support is so that those who like driving don't have to share the roads with as many other people are now people then use rail.


You're still not getting this. You're writing off everyone who doesn't agree with every aspect of HS2 as planned as being somewhere on a spectrum between neoliberal nutjobs and dungaree-clad railway nostaligsts. You cannot recognise that there are a fair number of people like me who support the principle of more rail capacity between north and south but don't agree with the way HS2 intends to provide it.

The fact that you cannot envisage what other services HS2 could provide if its capacity was greater sums up your worldview nicely.
 

B&I

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So if the trains are full from day 1 with the current proposed destinations how will adding more destinations help. Won't these people not be able to board a full service. Also these people who were taking up space on the trains going to places like Manchester, Birmingham etc.. A good number will move to hs2, therefore they will be able to have a better service with more space.


If you read what I've actually written, you will see that I am suggesting extra track capacity (albeit running at Lowe speeds) to serve more people (and more places) rather than building something very expensive and very full.

I don't know what "Also these people who were taking up space on the trains going to places like Manchester, Birmingham etc.. A good number will move to hs2, therefore they will be able to have a better service with more space" means.
 

B&I

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No, It will serve, London , Birmingham, Liverpool, Leeds, Newcastle, Glasgow and Edinburgh. I make that seven. Neither you or I know what will follow phase 2 but the Scots will almost certainly be clamouring for the line to extend into Scotland.
Which city do you refer to that will have less seats ?
The full benefits you speak of are by no means being overstated The reverse in fact. There really isn`t time on here to give anything like a full representation of the full benefits. Milton keynes for example. No HS2 trains will stop there but it will benefit hugely.
Northampton ditto
Cross Country also benefits. Bristol / Brum and th4e south west to Leeds / Newcastle / Scotland etc , etc
The list is a long one.

I am not going to waste any more of my Sunday afternoon typing in the numerous benefits as I suspect you will never be persuaded , Pity

I challenge you to outline how you think 100 billion could be spent differently to achieve the same benefits even if only capacity


Commuters north west of London will benefit, but I'm not sure that's going to help you sell the project to the millions across the country who question why nothing is built in this country which isn't designed to benefit the people of the south east.

The benefits to anywhere outside London, Manchester, Birmingham and Leeda will be marginal. Even the last 3 cities mentioned will not benefit that much because, instead of improving capacity generally for long distance services in and around those cities, we will have very expensive but very limited infrastructure designed only to link them to a couple of other places, meaning that HS2 will relieve relatively few classic lines. Places not on the classic lines will see fairly marginal improvements to journey times and no improvements to capacity. The city which will see reduced capacity is Liverpool - due to have 2 TPH to London fairly shortly, willhave 2 classic compatibles carrying fewer people than 2 11 car Pendolinos.

You might find me easier to persuade if you stopped pretending that HS2 as currently designed will benefit far more people than it actually will.

Glad to see that you accept that HS2 will actually cost £100 bn, which at least makes you.more honest than some of its proponents. A cheaper, higher capacity new line from north to south, and a start on fixing the many other capacity constraints in our network, is what I'd do with £100 bn.
 

JonathanH

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Even the last 3 cities mentioned will not benefit that much because, instead of improving capacity generally for long distance services in and around those cities, we will have very expensive but very limited infrastructure designed only to link them to a couple of other places, meaning that HS2 will relieve relatively few classic lines.

I don't see how you avoid this? Are you suggesting a need for stations on the route if HS2 on 'greenfield' sites? That really isn't what it is about.
 

B&I

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From respected analyst Piers Connor's excellent paper, 16 tph is a realistic figure for a railway like HS2, possibly with a bit of wiggle room for a little more if ATO is applied, which seems highly likely. 16tph is 75% of 21.33. 16.6 is 75% of 22.1.
http://www.railway-technical.com/books-papers--articles/high-speed-railway-capacity.pdf

Braking distance may scale non linearly, but technical and operational headway (in time and thus affecting frequency) does not grow proportional to that because the braking distance is covered in less time as speed increases. Taking it to extremes, a train travelling at infinite speed would be an infinite distance away immediately it passed a specified location allowing another to be dispatched immediately behind it! It should be noted that the main constraints on the headway are about limited junction turnout speed and ability to accelerate into standard paths from these rather than the plain line separation at speed itself.


Surely if speeds on the mainline are reduced, the problem of the turnout speed from the branches will reduce. And aren't the branches designed to enable trains to reach close to main line speed before joining the main line ?
 

B&I

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I don't see how you avoid this? Are you suggesting a need for stations on the route if HS2 on 'greenfield' sites? That really isn't what it is about.


I don't know where you get the stuff about greenfields from. I'm suggesting that, instead of building what is essentially a network incompatible with the rest of the network which connects 4 cities, we should build new capacity at the many points (including on the approaches to and around the centre of) several of our major cities where it is necessary. I accept that this includes a new line leading north west from London because of the constraints on the WCML. I don't think HS2 as planned best suits this purpose.
 

JonathanH

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I don't know where you get the stuff about greenfields from.

I thought you were implying a need for more stations on the HS2 route.

a network incompatible with the rest of the network which connects 4 cities,

Didn't they get rid of the idea of having captive rolling stock?

How does it only link four cities? Doesn't it have connections to the rest of the network?

build new capacity at the many points (including on the approaches to and around the centre of) several of our major cities where it is necessary

Does this add disproportionately to the cost?
 

The Ham

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You're still not getting this. You're writing off everyone who doesn't agree with every aspect of HS2 as planned as being somewhere on a spectrum between neoliberal nutjobs and dungaree-clad railway nostaligsts. You cannot recognise that there are a fair number of people like me who support the principle of more rail capacity between north and south but don't agree with the way HS2 intends to provide it.

The fact that you cannot envisage what other services HS2 could provide if its capacity was greater sums up your worldview nicely.

In not writing off people as nut jobs, I was explaining why it would appear that there's not a lot of support for HS2. I didn't give a view as to why they hold those views or even if those views were any more or less valid than those who support HS2. In fact there's probably some who support HS2 who are benefiting from the project (although not everyone, as some suggest).

I certainly don't think that HS2 as planned is perfect and I'm willing to listen to those who provide an argument as to why it should be changed. However, the problem is that whatever we do is likely to result in a compromise.

The compromise currently being put forward is that we opt for a lower frequency of services to facilitate the linking of the ECML to the network to ease capacity constraints on that without the need for additional works/lines.

The fact that we'll provide double the current capacity on HS2 due to the capacity of the trains allows us to do this.

If we need more capacity at a later date then we'll cross that bridge at that point in time, however that's not something that we should be overly concerned about just yet.

We could build HS2 so that it served more individual places, for instance we could make it serve Coventry, we could even make it serve Cardiff. However without knowing where you're suggesting, other than just vague "urban areas" then how can we evaluate your suggestion.

If you look back through this thread you'll come across the suggestion of smart timetabling, however the person suggesting it didn't provide an answer as to what that looked like and so there was no way of comparing this against what was proposed.

Going back to the suggestions above of Coventry and Cardiff both would likely increase costs (although the latter much more so), not least due to the need to buy more urban land with the developments on that land.

I've asked you explain where the HS2 services would go if not the core stations, I've even suggested that it's unlikely that we'd be able to prove then to many places away from the HS2 network. As such can you please explain where those extra, let's say 6 to start with, trains would serve?

Are you taking about extra stops on the HS2 network? Are you taking about more places beyond the HS2 lines?

Whilst it is possible to increase the capacity by going slower, that capacity has to be useful and has to be justified. For instance there's little point serving Banbury (population ~44,000) at its just too small to justify a train with 1,100 seats calling at it in a regular basis. As it's 2.8 million passengers a year would just about fit onto 4 HS2 trains a day. Even allowing for other passengers you'd not need much more than 1tph and that's assuming that those Banbury passengers all want to go where the HS2 services are going.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Commuters north west of London will benefit, but I'm not sure that's going to help you sell the project to the millions across the country who question why nothing is built in this country which isn't designed to benefit the people of the south east.

Since you seem to be implying that everything that is built benefits the people of the South East, I wonder if you could explain how the following recently built railway things are designed to benefit the people of the South East?
  • The Tweedbank line
  • Manchester-Liverpool/Blackpool electrification
  • Manchester Metrolink expansions
  • The Halton Curve
  • The Ebbw Vale line
  • Glasgow-Edinburgh electriification
  • The Liverpool Lime Street capacity improvements and 4-tracking towards Broad Green
  • Ilkestone station
  • The Alloa line
 

The Ham

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I don't know where you get the stuff about greenfields from. I'm suggesting that, instead of building what is essentially a network incompatible with the rest of the network which connects 4 cities, we should build new capacity at the many points (including on the approaches to and around the centre of) several of our major cities where it is necessary. I accept that this includes a new line leading north west from London because of the constraints on the WCML. I don't think HS2 as planned best suits this purpose.

How is HS2 not compatible with the rest of the network?

I'll give you that you can't run through trains at Manchester, which quite a few people would suggest is a failing of HS2. Especially given that we're wanting to build NPR .

However the train services will serve places like Glasgow and Edinburgh (amongst others), which are just a little way off the HS2 infrastructure.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I don't know where you get the stuff about greenfields from. I'm suggesting that, instead of building what is essentially a network incompatible with the rest of the network which connects 4 cities, we should build new capacity at the many points (including on the approaches to and around the centre of) several of our major cities where it is necessary. I accept that this includes a new line leading north west from London because of the constraints on the WCML. I don't think HS2 as planned best suits this purpose.

If you accept that this requires a new line leading NW from London, how do you propose to build this line more cheaply than HS2? Bear in mind that much of the high cost of the Southern part of HS2 comes from tunnelling out of London and building what amounts to a new underground station at Euston, which would be presumably be just as much required by any alternative new line. Also, HS2 almost entirely runs through open countryside between London and Birmingham - which is the cheapest and least disruptive place to build it. You seem to be suggesting you want a line that stops at more places. That presumably implies you'd need to route it through some towns instead - which is an awful lot more expensive than routing a railway through open countryside.

(Also I'm pretty sure HS2 is quite compatible with the rest of the network. If it wasn't, they wouldn't be proposing classic-compatible trains that can run off HS2 onto the conventional network).
 

B&I

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If you accept that this requires a new line leading NW from London, how do you propose to build this line more cheaply than HS2? Bear in mind that much of the high cost of the Southern part of HS2 comes from tunnelling out of London and building what amounts to a new underground station at Euston, which would be presumably be just as much required by any alternative new line. Also, HS2 almost entirely runs through open countryside between London and Birmingham - which is the cheapest and least disruptive place to build it. You seem to be suggesting you want a line that stops at more places. That presumably implies you'd need to route it through some towns instead - which is an awful lot more expensive than routing a railway through open countryside.

(Also I'm pretty sure HS2 is quite compatible with the rest of the network. If it wasn't, they wouldn't be proposing classic-compatible trains that can run off HS2 onto the conventional network).


You've answered your own questions. I'd be looking at another route into London involving less tunnelling eg along the M1 corridor. If I had to approach from the northwest, I'd try to avoid having to tunnel under quite so much of the 'open countryside'. Maybe pick somewhere where land was not quite so expensive. Also, I would probably rest content with a station at Old Oak Common rather than spending billions more heading to Euston (which I suspect will be little more pleasant for passengers in 2026 than it is now).

HS2 is not compatible with the existing network in the sense that it relies on UIC gauge trains to provide much of the capacity uplift promised, but the money is not available to build lines to this standard to more than a handful of destinations. Perhaps it would be if we weren't spending quite so much on a route designed to achieve unprecedented speeds far above what the trains are actually likely to run at.
 

B&I

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How is HS2 not compatible with the rest of the network?

I'll give you that you can't run through trains at Manchester, which quite a few people would suggest is a failing of HS2. Especially given that we're wanting to build NPR .

However the train services will serve places like Glasgow and Edinburgh (amongst others), which are just a little way off the HS2 infrastructure.


HS2 will make the services to Scotland from south of Crewe slightly faster. It will lead to journeys beginning north of Crewe being slowed down, because of the lack of tilt capability of the classic compatibles
 

B&I

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Since you seem to be implying that everything that is built benefits the people of the South East, I wonder if you could explain how the following recently built railway things are designed to benefit the people of the South East?
  • The Tweedbank line
  • Manchester-Liverpool/Blackpool electrification
  • Manchester Metrolink expansions
  • The Halton Curve
  • The Ebbw Vale line
  • Glasgow-Edinburgh electriification
  • The Liverpool Lime Street capacity improvements and 4-tracking towards Broad Green
  • Ilkestone station
  • The Alloa line


I wonder what fraction of the overall cost of HS1, or Crossrail, the combined cost of all those projects would represent.
 
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