First Group: General Discussion

[winston270twm]

Stagecoach is similarly down from 140p to 88p. All stocks are getting a battering.

I'd been drip feeding funds to add to my Stagecoach holding at 118p & 113p, but even those are way down now, the markets are in highly volatile panic mode. Even NX looks attractive at current rate circa 240p.

Any one deciding to invest now, would be best to drip feed funds, rather than buying big blocks, as they may well go lower before they return to more normal levels.

Quality, cash rich companies that pay a dividend will be the most attractive, any business that can't potentially weather this storm & sudden drop in revenue will get hit hard.

Oh yes, very true. However, I think it's only FGP that is now at its lowest ever point.

Yes FGP is the only one at it's lowest ever price & well under its 2013 rights issue price.

The current market turmoil, may well also delay any potential sale of even it's most valuable US assets. ​

 

[winston270twm]

First Group shares are currently down 56% to 33p, an all time low on panic selling / Covid-19 fears.

NX are down to 167p (-30%)
Stagecoach down to 78p (-12%)
Go-Ahead down to 798p (-21.5%)

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

First Group shares are currently down 56% to 33p, an all time low on panic selling / Covid-19 fears.

NX are down to 167p (-30%)
Stagecoach down to 78p (-12%)
Go-Ahead down to 798p (-21.5%)

Yes FGP is the only one at it's lowest ever price & well under its 2013 rights issue price.

The current market turmoil, may well also delay any potential sale of even it's most valuable US assets.

The first point was perhaps incidental given how the markets are currently collapsing.

However, the second point is most definitely material. However, the timescale on any sell off would be slightly protracted anyway so we will have to see how it's impacted.

 

[winston270twm]

The first point was perhaps incidental given how the markets are currently collapsing.

However, the second point is most definitely material. However, the timescale on any sell off would be slightly protracted anyway so we will have to see how it's impacted.

Stock Markets are always priced 6 months ahead of actual, I assume this morning will be down to this morning's media suggesting disruption could do on until spring 2021.

That said, the current situation could well serverly delay / derail any plans for First Group to sell its US arm or Greyhound.

It seems those hardest hit, have the biggest debts.

 

[oldman]

I wonder whether the likes of Coast Capital have bailed out, contributing to the sharpness of the fall. They aren't going to get the payout at the end of the year that was being talked about only last week. This type of investor is in it for quick returns.

 

[winston270twm]

I wonder whether the likes of Coast Capital have bailed out, contributing to the sharpness of the fall. They aren't going to get the payout at the end of the year that was being talked about only last week. This type of investor is in it for quick returns.

Doubt it, they wouldn't be able to offload 10% of First Group in a day. The markets are just in panic mode due to the uncertainty & few buyers around

 

[ivanhoe]

First Group shares are currently down 56% to 33p, an all time low on panic selling / Covid-19 fears.

NX are down to 167p (-30%)
Stagecoach down to 78p (-12%)
Go-Ahead down to 798p (-21.5%)

NX are not helped by their exposure in Spain with Alsa.

 

[winston270twm]

NX are not helped by their exposure in Spain with Alsa.

Maybe not, but if the UK ends up like Spain, Spain will re-open for business & normality before UK, same with NX exposure to US.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Maybe not, but if the UK ends up like Spain, Spain will re-open for business & normality before UK, same with NX exposure to US.

That’s IF. The market is reacting to the situation now. May explain why Stagecoach hasn’t been marked down by the same extent.

 

[winston270twm]

That’s IF. The market is reacting to the situation now. May explain why Stagecoach hasn’t been marked down by the same extent.

Yes, it is still 'IF'. But the biggest fallers appear to be those with the largest borrowings i.e. FGP & NX, Rotala are faring better only because their shares are thinly traded.

The market is reacting to now & pricing in what companies will be announcing in 6 months time with negative news from this period etc, etc

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Yes, it is still 'IF'. But the biggest fallers appear to be those with the largest borrowings i.e. FGP & NX, Rotala are faring better only because their shares are thinly traded.

The market is reacting to now & pricing in what companies will be announcing in 6 months time with negative news from this period etc, etc

If these were ordinary days, I'd agree. However, we're in exceptional times!

 

[Nickincornwall]

With the crash in Stock Market prices, First Group has reduced to a mere 76p. It's been more in the 110-120p until very recently.

Down to 30p today

 

[overthewater]

Surly in 6 months when everything is gotten over this the numbers will return to normal? for first that could be anywhere from 90p to £1.10.

 

[bussnapperwm]

Down to 30p today

Whilst people are selling, I've been buying shares in First. I've got my fingers crossed they go back up again after this panic ends.

 

[winston270twm]

Whilst people are selling, I've been buying shares in First. I've got my fingers crossed they go back up again after this panic ends.

I'd have gone with a safer option with less debt.

Surly in 6 months when everything is gotten over this the numbers will return to normal? for first that could be anywhere from 90p to £1.10.

I wouldn't bank of that at the moment, it depends how long this all goes on for & how big a hole it leaves in their accounts / ability to service their debts etc. ​

 

[Robertj21a]

Surly in 6 months when everything is gotten over this the numbers will return to normal? for first that could be anywhere from 90p to £1.10.

Why ?

Anything is possible but we have no idea what state First Group will be in at the end of whatever period we are talking about. As one of the weakest transport PLCs, paying no dividend, it's difficult to see much of an attraction.

The very low price does, however, make it much cheaper for someone to acquire a sizeable quantity of shares in order to exert control over the Board.

 

[winston270twm]

Why ?

Anything is possible but we have no idea what state First Group will be in at the end of whatever period we are talking about. As one of the weakest transport PLCs, paying no dividend, it's difficult to see much of an attraction.

The very low price does, however, make it much cheaper for someone to acquire a sizeable quantity of shares in order to exert control over the Board.

Even NX, the one I would have considered the strongest is down another 38% currently to 81p.

 

[Nickincornwall]

Whilst people are selling, I've been buying shares in First. I've got my fingers crossed they go back up again after this panic ends.

AT the moment they are the lowest it is possible they will go up but the city seems to lack any confidence less even than the other bus groups.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

AT the moment they are the lowest it is possible they will go up but the city seems to lack any confidence less even than the other bus groups.

Not certain I follow the logic there.

Compared to its market cap this time one month ago....

• Go Ahead is now worth 21% of its value
• National Express is now worth 20% of its value
• First Group is now worth 21% of its value

Stagecoach is faring better being worth 40% of its value of one month ago.

 

[Nickincornwall]

Not certain I follow the logic there.

Compared to its market cap this time one month ago....

• Go Ahead is now worth 21% of its value
• National Express is now worth 20% of its value
• First Group is now worth 21% of its value

Stagecoach is faring better being worth 40% of its value of one month ago.

As an investor I paid387p for my go ahead shares

First group I paid 80p

The issue I think with first is as a group they have lost money for the last two years. In a group the entire group fortunes can bring down even the more profitable parts of a group. Look at Thomas Cook for a good example

 

[winston270twm]

As an investor I paid387p for my go ahead shares

First group I paid 80p

The issue I think with first is as a group they have lost money for the last two years. In a group the entire group fortunes can bring down even the more profitable parts of a group. Look at Thomas Cook for a good example

I also be interested to know how First Group stand with WCML, remember, is was the ECML, the credit crunch & following recession that brought NX Group to it's knee's in 2009.

 

[Robertj21a]

This massive reduction in bus and train passengers due to Coronavirus is going to have a major impact on the profitability of every UK operator. I fear that some big names are going to struggle to survive.

 

[overthewater]

Not if they get nationalised.

 

[freetoview33]

Not if they get nationalised.

Which is a very real possibility.

 

[winston270twm]

Not if they get nationalised.

Yes - and if they get Nationalized, there's no point buying any shares in them.

 

[317 forever]

Interesting too that whilst First Eastern Counties seem to be making a modest profit Go-Ahead owned local rival KonectBus are reporting losses of £500k

East Anglia is the only area Go-Ahead operate buses that were not parts of privatised companies or extensions of private operations. The West Midlands was another but this was sold in 2008.

 

[Cesarcollie]

East Anglia is the only area Go-Ahead operate buses that were not parts of privatised companies or extensions of private operations. The West Midlands was another but this was sold in 2008.

£500k? The accounts for y/e June 2019 have just been published on the Companies House website. The ‘enlarged’ Konectbus including Hedingham and Chambers ( you have to add them together as assets moved at a different time to staff) shows losses of nearer £1.4m..... Makes First look pretty good! And that’s without spending any money on repaints

 

[Volvodart]

Property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz shunts off £28m rail stake

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money...henguiz-shunts-28m-rail-stake.html?mrn_rm=rta

By BEN HARRINGTON FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY

PUBLISHED: 23:07, 21 March 2020 | UPDATED: 23:07, 21 March 2020

Property tycoon Robert Tchenguiz has sold his multi-million pound investment in transport firm FirstGroup after being squeezed by the stock market crash.

The sale marks the end of the flamboyant businessman’s activist campaign to shake up the bus and rail company.

Last year Tchenguiz built up a 6 per cent shareholding worth around £28million in FirstGroup – one of Britain’s largest passenger transport companies – through a series of complex deals.

He called for the company to split its US business from the group and reportedly threatened to push for an extraordinary general meeting.

However, during the recent stock market rout Tchenguiz sold his investment in FirstGroup, which operates the Great Western Railway, South Western Railway and the TransPennine Express.

City sources said Tchenguiz’s brokers had pressured him into selling off his stake in a similar way to how he was forced to sell his multi-million pound shareholdings in J Sainsbury and Mitchells & Butlers during the financial crisis a decade ago.

FirstGroup shares plunged from £1.30 in February to 38.2p on Friday.

In other news, the Telegraph are reporting that Firstgroup and Go-Ahead may not get the franchises ending next week extended because they cannot get bank guarantees because of their share price plunge.

 

[Goldfish62]

In other news, the Telegraph are reporting that Firstgroup and Go-Ahead may not get the franchises ending next week extended because they cannot get bank guarantees because of their share price plunge.

Which presumably means nationalisation by default.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Which presumably means nationalisation by default.

Ordinarily but in these days, the government may not insist on a PCG or bond. The government have enough to do with other matters and the GWR franchise is up next week.