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Stone's Conservative MP Sir Bill Cash wants HS2 to be cancelled to benefit the Health service

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The Ham

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The latest BBC article suggesting that HS2 should be cancelled:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-52151351

HS2 QED? Not so fast!
Just two months ago the government seemed to have secured the future of High-Speed Rail.

But now our region's longest-serving MP is signalling his determination to renew his campaign for it to be axed after all.

Stone's Conservative MP Sir Bill Cash warns: "If the government wants to benefit the health service... it would be better to keep this kind of money in the accounts."

Yet again failing to understand how government funds such things, in that that there's two types of government money. Investment (think Mortgages) and spending (think credit card).

However, even putting that aside, the arrival misses the point that the lockdown is only a short term thing. However if it were to cause then clearly shouldn't there be calls for all road schemes to also be cancelled. From the article:

Repeating that earlier journey north from Birmingham on the M6, I saw what a difference the "lock-down" is making.

At times all three carriageways were devoid of traffic as far as the eye could see.
 
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If anything, the extra financial measures to help the country through the pandemic has kind of exposed the "national credit card" argument as a myth even for most Tories.
 

DynamicSpirit

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If anything, the extra financial measures to help the country through the pandemic has kind of exposed the "national credit card" argument as a myth even for most Tories.

Not really. The Government is spending and is likely to massively increase the national debt because it appears to be the least bad way to get through a short term emergency. That's not at all the same thing as repeatedly spending more than you earn routinely every year. It's a bit like, if you get a burst pipe and it floods your kitchen, it may well be sensible as an emergency measure to borrow money and go into debt in order to replace your kitchen. That doesn't mean that borrowing money every year even when there is no emergency is a good idea.

In the end we are - in common with many other countries - going to come out of this with a massively bigger Government debt. And that will have to be somehow resolved if it's not to weigh down the economy and future Government spending going forward.
 

corfield

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Quite - indeed, the opposite is the case, not having run up every credit card to the max on a new tv every year means when you do need that plumber and chippy - although it is debt, you have some capacity for it.

What this crisis and the response to it means, is effectively austerity for another 10 years. By a different name of course, but the recent Budget is effectively toilet paper now and things like HS2 will be back in focus.

The argument for keeping HS2 will be how effective it is as generating jobs etc in the short-medium term - in comparison to other things.
 

Chester1

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Quite - indeed, the opposite is the case, not having run up every credit card to the max on a new tv every year means when you do need that plumber and chippy - although it is debt, you have some capacity for it.

What this crisis and the response to it means, is effectively austerity for another 10 years. By a different name of course, but the recent Budget is effectively toilet paper now and things like HS2 will be back in focus.

The argument for keeping HS2 will be how effective it is as generating jobs etc in the short-medium term - in comparison to other things.

I don't think the Tories or the public have the stomach for more cuts. Its not clear what effect this crisis will have on long term tax collection. The Bank of England has created £200bn which should cover the one off costs and mean we pay for the pandemic through a year of high inflation. When the coalition took over the government was borrowing 27% of what it spent (compared with 2% last year). This years borrowing will be extremely high but its indirectly funded by the Bank of England through quantative easing. I don't think April 2021 to April 2022 tax revenue will be anything close to 25% below last year. If its a case of £30 to £40bn shortfall then they will start to increase some taxes, and divert some planned increases elsewhere to the NHS.

In terms of HS2, its really unlikely the government is going to cancel it, pay a multi billion pound bill for nothing and stop billions of construction spending over the next year. Its one of the few projects that is ready to start.
 

underbank

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Rather than austerity, I think we'll be seeing pretty huge tax/nic rises for everyone once all this is over. The general public clearly want a lot more spent on the NHS so they're all going to have to pay, including pensioners etc. There's a limit to how much more you can tax the middle earning workers who've borne the brunt of tax rises of the past decade or two, i.e. student loan repayments, nic inceases, workplace pension deductions, child benefit clawback etc. The lower earners and pensioners have done pretty well from being shielded and I think it's now time they put their hands in their pockets too.
 

Ianno87

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The latest BBC article suggesting that HS2 should be cancelled:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-52151351



Yet again failing to understand how government funds such things, in that that there's two types of government money. Investment (think Mortgages) and spending (think credit card).

However, even putting that aside, the arrival misses the point that the lockdown is only a short term thing. However if it were to cause then clearly shouldn't there be calls for all road schemes to also be cancelled. From the article:

Of course the roads are empty - it's a lockdown!!!
 

The Ham

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Of course the roads are empty - it's a lockdown!!!

Indeed, likewise the railways. If there's a longer term so in use of either is going to be the roads which are likely to see the largest drops in flows, purely because there's more to begin with.
 

JonathanH

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The lower earners and pensioners have done pretty well from being shielded and I think it's now time they put their hands in their pockets too.

The idea that you can take money for recovery from lower earners is absolutely not on. They are the ones who have either contributed to the response as key workers or been furloughed. If anything they need a further increase in their income to spend more in the economy.

Removing the triple lock on pensions is an obvious step and perhaps looking to take more tax from 'affluent' pensioners.

I am afraid it is middle and higher income people, especially those who have continued working and been at home who need to be 'taxed to the hilt' as a result of this crisis, perhaps through a one-off wealth tax in addition to increases in income tax.
 

The Ham

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Rather than austerity, I think we'll be seeing pretty huge tax/nic rises for everyone once all this is over. The general public clearly want a lot more spent on the NHS so they're all going to have to pay, including pensioners etc. There's a limit to how much more you can tax the middle earning workers who've borne the brunt of tax rises of the past decade or two, i.e. student loan repayments, nic inceases, workplace pension deductions, child benefit clawback etc. The lower earners and pensioners have done pretty well from being shielded and I think it's now time they put their hands in their pockets too.

Indeed, there's going to be a lot more "well of you fancy your chances where you have to pay for your own healthcare then feel free to go elsewhere.". When it comes to the thought of the rich moving overseas to avoid taxes.

Not least because the cost of flights are likely be much more expensive and so the cost of being a non-dom is likely to be much higher. Also such moves are likely to be done across most countries.

Also you're less likely to see people moving to (or at least wintering in) Spain and the Med to live in their later years, again due to the higher travel costs but also with the thought of "what happens if" being much more of a concern with regards to health.

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw changes to the tax system so that we saw a similar setup with state pensions as we currently see for child benefits, in that those who earn more than £50,000 will stay to see it being claimed back through higher taxes unless they defer the start of receiving the pension payments. (This would mean that they got paid more when they did start receiving it, but would reduce the number who got it whilst still earning a good wage, although don't feel too sorry for them as they would still benefit from not paying NI which would still leave them quite a bit better if each month).

Another thing which we could see is a change to the split between NI and tax so that a greater proportion was tax rather than NI which would have a minimal impact on most, but would equal more taxes on older people in society. Such a change could be limited to higher rate tax payer and/or partnered with a rising of the tax free allowance so that it results in less tax for those earning less than (say) £20,000 but for those earning more than £50,000 and not paying NI they would pay quite a lot more tax. This would counter the statements which come out about "what about the poor pensioners" (often used by those who are actually fairly well off as a cover for them not wanting to pay more tax) as they would be better off.
 

Neen Sollars

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Easier option. Demolish and grass over Heathrow as it really is a design shambles.

Build a new airport aligned with HS 2, or re-develop Birmingham airport which is already aligned.

The London lot can then justify the southern HS2 as it will take them less time to the new airport as existing Piccadilly line to Heathrow.

GG You don`t have to re-develop Bham Intl Airport it is already there. You just need to improve the facilities to handle the potential 30 million plus passenger capacity it can already take. The link to the HS2 railway station is already planned. But whether HS2 goes ahead after C19 remains to be seen.
 

The Ham

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Quite agree--total misplaced waste of money . Maybe the present situation will re-align priorities for a whole lot of things .

Why is it a waste of money?

Maybe you can start by answering the question, do you think that we should invest in railways?

If so, are you aware of how much money is already being spent on enhancing the existing network? For instance how much had been spent on enhancements in the last decade? £3bn, £4bn, £9bn, £13bn, or all of these combined?

Screenshot_20200113-033521.png
That's about £30bn, which is all of the figures added together, it also shows that is spending continues at the current rate (£4bn per year) we'd spend about £80bn by 2040, which isn't much less than the spending on HS2 over a similar timeframe.

The current situation will certainly realign priorities, however it's much more likely to be at the expense of road projects than rail projects.

In the next 5 years we were due to spend something £27bn on road projects. Assuming that WFH has a small impact on road usage then much, if not all, of that could be deferred.

Even a year ago rail had grown between London and the region's which benefit from HS2 by an average of 49% (between 2009 and 2018), which is the rate which it was expected to grow by the opening of Phase 1. Therefore even if it takes 5 years to get back on track we'd still be on track.

Even then it is the fact that between London and the region's which were due to benefit from Phase 1 (West Midlands, North West and Scotland) growth was up by 70%. In which case rail growth could be down from that by 12% at opening of Phase 1 and still be on target.

However with more working from home it's likely to result in more long distance rail travel, as households are less likely to own more than one car. Resulting in an increase in occasional rail travel.
 

corfield

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Road wont suffer for any such reasons- if anything this has shown how essential car and road usage is to people’s lives and the economy - both to the people and decision makers.

Road will suffer because the projects are smaller and easier to cancel. Especially as so many are in the future.

HS2 has nothing really to do with rail investment as your post makes clear - we spend a fortune already. Already marginal cost benefit wise and politicised, it’s future depends on the impact of cancelling it and just how bad the govts general figures are.

Again, just as roads it could be deferred, even at total overall cost - look how “prudent” Brown near doubled the cost of the aircraft carriers.

Tax wise I doubt there will be very much - with so many having lost significant income, and that affecting all brackets - there will be zero appetite to pay more tax.

Cuts seem far more likely, everyone wants more NHS but this might focus minds on what that means, and I believe when given a choice, as politically it will be, people will choose their own pocket. No doubt there will be stories galore of how consultants and overtime payments meant some profitted, and the supply side too - harsh but it’ll happen.
 

class26

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GG You don`t have to re-develop Bham Intl Airport it is already there. You just need to improve the facilities to handle the potential 30 million plus passenger capacity it can already take. The link to the HS2 railway station is already planned. But whether HS2 goes ahead after C19 remains to be seen.

At the moment BHX terminal is on the opposite side of the railway to the HS2 exchange station but there are plans for a new terminal on the "correct" side of the railway and so much closer to the HS2 station.
 

The Ham

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Road wont suffer for any such reasons- if anything this has shown how essential car and road usage is to people’s lives and the economy - both to the people and decision makers.

Road will suffer because the projects are smaller and easier to cancel. Especially as so many are in the future.

HS2 has nothing really to do with rail investment as your post makes clear - we spend a fortune already. Already marginal cost benefit wise and politicised, it’s future depends on the impact of cancelling it and just how bad the govts general figures are.

Again, just as roads it could be deferred, even at total overall cost - look how “prudent” Brown near doubled the cost of the aircraft carriers.

Tax wise I doubt there will be very much - with so many having lost significant income, and that affecting all brackets - there will be zero appetite to pay more tax.

Cuts seem far more likely, everyone wants more NHS but this might focus minds on what that means, and I believe when given a choice, as politically it will be, people will choose their own pocket. No doubt there will be stories galore of how consultants and overtime payments meant some profitted, and the supply side too - harsh but it’ll happen.

Covid-19 & WFH is likely to have an impact on road usage for the next 5 years, given that 10% of all road traffic is directly related to schools then a drop of that much would allow the cancelling of probably the next 5 years of road projects.

There's two factors which will likely impact road use. Firstly the lockdown will force a LOT of people to try delivery/online for a lot more goods and services than they would have been willing to accept in the past. This will reduce the "need" for cars for a lot of shopping purposes. Combine that with the potential for shops to close some of their branches (almost certainly where there's more than one in a town or urban area) and redeploying those resources to delivery.

That is likely to have an impact on the viability of town centres and or retail parks. Which in turn is likely to impact on coffee drive thrus (especially combined with that people will have likely got used to more normal coffee, if not reduced their dependency, during lockdown).

Secondly WFH is likely to increase for many. Not least due to the fact that businesses have realised that even though they've taken a productivity hit they could cut their lease costs by having smaller buildings.

For instance an company with 100 people with 50% working from home 2 days a week could have a building which is 20% smaller than is currently the case. Add in another 25% who work from home 3 days a week and the building can be 1/3 the size. That's likely to be quite a string driving factor, given that much of the IT infrastructure had already been deployed and stress tested.

That still shows you to have 25% Worthing in the office full time, which could include new starters until they've demonstrated their work ethic, those who have shown that they can't be trusted to work from home and those for whom working from home brings no advantages or creates challenges (such as there being small children around and no dedicated work space).

For those who do WFH then there's going to be questions over the cost benefits of car ownership.

At a very simple level of it costs you £200 per month in car ownership and running costs (£100/ month on fuel and tyres isn't that difficult to achieve, nor is £100 servicing, £200 insurance, £100 VED, £30 breakdown cover and £770 in purchase costs each year, with many paying a lot more than that) then on a 20 working day month that's £10 per day. If that falls to a 12 working day month (as the other 8 are all working days but just from home) then the cost jumps to nearly £17 a day. If train fares are £13 a day then there would have to be quite a bit of other use for that car to justify the extra cost. Whilst £3.75 a day doesn't sound a lot, over a year of 3 day week it's an extra £540. That's at least 18 days of car hire at £30/day, which would probably cover most trips you wanted to make.

However the maths gets even worse of you're a could and you're both working from home two days a week and you can mostly do so on different days to reach other with the one going to the office mostly being able to drive and only 1 day a week where you regularly have to have one person use the train. As then the cost of running two cars over one would be very hard to justify.

Given that to get a 10% fall in road usage we'd need just 15% of all road users to WFH 2 days a week then that's relatively easy to achieve. In reality it would need to be less than that as people significantly reduce the above of face to face meetings they do. Even if you only did so for 1 meeting out of 4 that's going to have an impact on the overall traffic flows. Which in turn reduces the numbers needing to work from home to achieve the 10% drop in traffic.

However even then there's likely to be a bigger drop in peak hour traffic with people looking to do longer hours working from home (say you've got a 30 minute drive to work, those days you work from home you do a +1 hour working day) so that you can then work shorter days when in the office (maybe arriving at 10am) so as to shift your drive away from when the roads are at their busiest.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Bill Cash is hardly a disinterested observer.
His beef is that Staffordshire pays the price for a new line but doesn't get any benefit from it (especially if the Handsacre junction is not built).
Stone will also host the construction/maintenance depot with all the associated muck and disruption and loss of farming land (but also gets the jobs).
There's no bandwagon he won't jump on to keep the pressure on the government - climate change, environment, cost.
Having successfully destroyed our EU membership he's now determined to cripple the railway's future.
 

PTR 444

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Am I right in thinking that if you don’t build HS2, the money for it ceases to exist?
 

JonathanH

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Am I right in thinking that if you don’t build HS2, the money for it ceases to exist?

Yes, much of the funding comes from fare revenue. Unless you build a private hospital, the funding for it and cost of running it comes from tax revenues.
 

PTR 444

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Yes, much of the funding comes from fare revenue. Unless you build a private hospital, the funding for it and cost of running it comes from tax revenues.
So if that’s the case, why do people keep on insisting that cancelling it will free up money for other services like the NHS?

Cancelling HS2 at this stage would be the worst thing to do because even though demand is much lower now with covid-19, that demand will eventually get back up to pre-virus levels. Getting on with HS2 now will mean you’ll have a railway that will be future proofed for when the passengers come, rather than being saturated right from day 1.
 

yorkie

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So if that’s the case, why do people keep on insisting that cancelling it will free up money for other services like the NHS?
Because they have an agenda and/or are not very bright?
 

Tom B

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The idea that you can take money for recovery from lower earners is absolutely not on. They are the ones who have either contributed to the response as key workers or been furloughed. If anything they need a further increase in their income to spend more in the economy.

Removing the triple lock on pensions is an obvious step and perhaps looking to take more tax from 'affluent' pensioners.

I am afraid it is middle and higher income people, especially those who have continued working and been at home who need to be 'taxed to the hilt' as a result of this crisis, perhaps through a one-off wealth tax in addition to increases in income tax.

Pensioners are politically important as they vote and are seen as saints in the eyes of the media - look at old Doris and Reginald who are in their 90s and live in a little granny flat (as opposed to Fred and Betty in their 70s who retired at 50 and are incredibly wealthy whilst getting lots of increases/perks).

Housing is one of the key disparities; if this can be sorted then much of the remainder will fall into place. I do suspect that there will be a shift towards working from home which may help reduce the pressure points (although this will not go down with the powerful landlord/home owner lot who see increased prices as A Good Thing).
 

The Ham

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Housing is one of the key disparities; if this can be sorted then much of the remainder will fall into place. I do suspect that there will be a shift towards working from home which may help reduce the pressure points (although this will not go down with the powerful landlord/home owner lot who see increased prices as A Good Thing).

Chances are there'll be a drop in house prices, as although there'll be as much demand there's likely to be a weeker economy. Meaning that many of the chains which were in place before this started will fall though (even if their income doesn't change there'll be many who'll be nervous that it will change and so will look for a way out).

Locally to me of house prices fell by 30% then it would put them back a decade. That level of fall would be hard on a lot of people who brought in the last 5 years and haven't been able to pay much back. It would also impact on rents, which is where it would be felt the most and where a lot of the cheaper sales would come from.

I've read reports of what are likely to be Airbnb properties coming onto the normal rental market due to the sudden loss of income. They are on for much below the typical rent as they are keen to minimise their losses and want any income that they can get.

With the lack of international travel in the short term, quite probably even the next 3 years (until a significant number of people have had Covid-19 it the vaccine for it), then there's a good chance that there's going to be av fair few that don't make it back onto the Airbnb site.

Likewise there's the possibility of people disinvesting in London property, again especially if there's difficulties in flying around quite so freely for the next 3 years.

Whilst the numbers of deaths have been, in comparison to the overall population, fairly low; it's worth noting that there's a lot of investment from overseas in London property. As such you may find that there's deaths from other countries which result in the sale of properties, add to that drops in value and there could be quite a few flats within Central London to for sale for a lot least than the price they were just a few months ago.

A correction in housing costs, would help the vast majority of those in society. In that there's a lot of people paying quite a lot for their housing, which means that everything else costs a lot as those people are the very people who need to be paid to provide the goods and services which the rest use. With lower building costs then pay can be lower which in turn means that his and services can be cheaper which offsets the reductions in pay.
 

Neen Sollars

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Because they have an agenda and/or are not very bright?

True colours shown Yorkie. You don`t have to be very bright to know you have to spend £75 billion (plus) on Phase 1 and 1a before you start generating fare revenue. And it will take years and years to get the outlay back, if you are lucky. Bill Cash has always been anti HS2, its a bit like Brexit, anti democratic forces are trying to say C19 pandemic means final Brexit deal should not happen. So its always going to happen that fervent anti HS2 campaigners will will ramp up their campaign. However I am sure whilst this pandemic will show Brexit was the right decision, I think the need for HS2 and its huge cost will have to be looked at again. For all its many faults the Liam Halligan (anti HS2) Despatches programme has a very valid point, the immediate, medium and long term need is to get longer trains, and hopefully a few more of them, to ferry commuters into the UK cities. The panicking passenger on the Despatches programme is saying "Its a two car only I have to get on!" then fights her way on to a rammed train. This is an unacceptable situation. It it were a 6 car train there is no drama. I watched a you tube feature of a 6 car pacer going for scrap at Kingsbury depot, if that had rolled into that station would the passenger have said "Oh no! its a 6 car pacer, I`m not getting on that!" I don`t think so.
 

Ianno87

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True colours shown Yorkie. You don`t have to be very bright to know you have to spend £75 billion (plus) on Phase 1 and 1a before you start generating fare revenue.

Please stop making up numbers. Both £ prices and whatever "1a" is.
 

nlogax

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As politicians go, Cash is the definitive baffled, angry dinosaur. We were reminded of that all through the Brexit process and lo and behold, here we are again. He's a walking, talking Daily Mail comments section.
 

The Ham

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True colours shown Yorkie. You don`t have to be very bright to know you have to spend £75 billion (plus) on Phase 1 and 1a before you start generating fare revenue. And it will take years and years to get the outlay back, if you are lucky. Bill Cash has always been anti HS2, its a bit like Brexit, anti democratic forces are trying to say C19 pandemic means final Brexit deal should not happen. So its always going to happen that fervent anti HS2 campaigners will will ramp up their campaign. However I am sure whilst this pandemic will show Brexit was the right decision, I think the need for HS2 and its huge cost will have to be looked at again. For all its many faults the Liam Halligan (anti HS2) Despatches programme has a very valid point, the immediate, medium and long term need is to get longer trains, and hopefully a few more of them, to ferry commuters into the UK cities. The panicking passenger on the Despatches programme is saying "Its a two car only I have to get on!" then fights her way on to a rammed train. This is an unacceptable situation. It it were a 6 car train there is no drama. I watched a you tube feature of a 6 car pacer going for scrap at Kingsbury depot, if that had rolled into that station would the passenger have said "Oh no! its a 6 car pacer, I`m not getting on that!" I don`t think so.

The fact that the government has failed to provide the right number trains has nothing to do with HS2.

However there's been a lot of new trains due for delivery during CP6 and they had been starting to make a difference, now whilst they haven't been doing as well as they could have and the delays with the 769's haven't helped either.

6 coach trains could be delivered by the time that phase 1 opens, however that's a separate campaign as to if HS2 should get the go ahead.

Likewise the restarting of the electrification program, and extending it further, so that fewer trains need to be run by the limited diesel fleet would also help. However again that could be delivered in advance of and separately to HS2.

On Brexit the only thing I've seen is the suggestion that the deadline of the end of this year be pushed back so that we can focus on Covid-19 and not have to worry about sorting out Brexit along with all the other things which will be pushed back due to Parliament not sitting.

Having said that there are moves afoot to bring the UK Government into the 21st Century with the suggestion of online voting and the like. These are even being supported by the Right Honourable Member for the 18th Century (Rees Mogg).
 

6Gman

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So if that’s the case, why do people keep on insisting that cancelling it will free up money for other services like the NHS?

Because they don't understand how government finance works. Or, they're deliberately misleading the public.

I'll let you ponder which might apply to a long-serving MP.
 

6Gman

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You don`t have to be very bright to know you have to spend £75 billion (plus) on Phase 1 and 1a before you start generating fare revenue. And it will take years and years to get the outlay back, if you are lucky.

And you don't have to be very bright to know that if you don't spend £xxbn on HS2 it doesn't mean you have £xxbn in your pocket to spend on the NHS !
 

hwl

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Because they don't understand how government finance works. Or, they're deliberately misleading the public.

I'll let you ponder which might apply to a long-serving MP.
Always a backbench MP...
 
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