Coronavirus precautions: Has the world gone mad?

[Enthusiast]

So only around 500 bus journeys needed then?

But of course the plague carrier could be on the first bus you get on - or the 10,000th - or not on any bus you join at all. In just the same way, 500/1 shots occasionally win horseraces (well, perhaps not 500/1 - I've never seen a horse quoted at 500/1 - but let's say 100/1). But very few people back them for obvious reasons. There is simply no proper assessment of risk in all of this. In particular the second part of the risk assessment - the impact - seems scarcely to feature at all.

 

[Djgr]

I had a look at the stats yesterday. The 7-day rolling average for cases is falling, but for deaths it has flatlined. In "per million" terms only Sweden and USA are worse. That concerns me a bit.

Yes but statistics like the above are a little misleading. The virus isn't spread evenly across the population. It might be 1 in 2000 overall but maybe in your little bit of the UK it could be 1 in 500 or less.

or of course 1 in 10000

 

[Djgr]

The tail of the virus is indeed long and ‘sticky’. What we’re not hearing anymore, in the UK, is those horror stories from April of otherwise fairly healthy 30-somethings becoming very ill and needing ICU treatment. Is that because the media have moved on, or is the tail concentrated almost entirely in the very elderly, and those with co-morbidities who remain in hospital for reasons unrelated to Covid, despite testing positive along the way?

The figure I watch most closely is that for new hospitalisations, where there is also a disappointing stickiness around the 350-500 per day level, though it’s not taking-off.

And you can expect cases, hospitalizations, deaths to flatline as the lockdown is eased. The overall approach is to live with the virus whilst keeping these manageable.

But we need an economy. If we have 10 million people lounging around on sofas or hiding under their beds we will have NO economy in a year's time and we shall ALL be dead.

 

[Enthusiast]

But we need an economy. If we have 10 million people lounging around on sofas or hiding under their beds we will have NO economy in a year's time and we shall ALL be dead.

Absolutely spot on. At present those people can go to the beach or the country, have a roam round Lakeside (or their local equivalent - before Intu goes skint) and go to the betting shop. From Saturday they will also be able to go to a pub or restaurant and to the cinema, get their hair cut. But they cannot go to work. Their children can do all of the same (except the betting shop) but they cannot go to school. The taxpayer is paying 80% of the adults' wages up to August, then 60% up to October. Despite the PM's rhetoric many of the children will be unlikely to return to school in September and their teachers have been on 100% pay throughout. Some of them haven't done a stroke as this head teacher attests:

Suspended head Pauline Wood defends comments about teachers

A headteacher has hit out about her suspension for suggesting during an interview on local radio that some of her teachers were “sat at home doing nothing”. Pauline Wood is being investigated for potentially bringing her Sunderland school into disrepute during an interview with BBC radio about...

schoolsweek.co.uk

(she's now been suspended for answering honestly a question she was asked on the radio).

We have a PM promising to spend billions of pound refurbishing schools when it is unclear whether or when their pupils will return and we have a government presiding over all this insanity. It's a far bigger worry for me than catching the virus ever was.

 

[Class 33]

Oh dear. Last Sunday's total Coronavirus deaths was just 15. Was expecting it to be definitely lower than that this Sunday. But it's been reported that the HOSPITAL deaths since yesterday are 23, so total deaths will probably be at least 60 something. Not good. Getting concerned now.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Oh dear. Last Sunday's total Coronavirus deaths was just 15. Was expecting it to be definitely lower than that this Sunday. But it's been reported that the HOSPITAL deaths since yesterday are 23, so total deaths will probably be at least 60 something. Not good. Getting concerned now.

Deaths lag cases by 3-4 weeks, so they're a bit of a slow/lagged measure of things.

 

[MikeWM]

But it's been reported that the HOSPITAL deaths since yesterday are 23

Remember that it isn't 'deaths since yesterday'. It is 'deaths that have been recently registered that have just been collated'. Very few of the deaths announced on any specific day actually occurred in the previous 24 hours. That introduces a *lot* of noise into the statistics, even more than would be expected naturally.

 

[adc82140]

And at this low level the noise becomes very much amplified.

 

[Djgr]

Oh dear. Last Sunday's total Coronavirus deaths was just 15. Was expecting it to be definitely lower than that this Sunday. But it's been reported that the HOSPITAL deaths since yesterday are 23, so total deaths will probably be at least 60 something. Not good. Getting concerned now.

.
The magic number you are looking for is 25. Seriously don't play Covid daily Bingo. For a whole host of reasons you CANNOT pick up trends from looking at one day alone.

Looking at rolling averages is better.

Be positive. 25 is almost the same as 0.

 

[adc82140]

When deaths were in the 600s, plus or minus 10 was nothing. It's just down at these levels it's noticeable.

In addition, don't forget that any death where CV is confirmed or suspected counts, even if the primary cause of death is something completely different. For example if you happen to be Covid positive, and get run over by a bus, officially the Covid killed you.

 

[MikeWM]

Suspecting a case of COVID is now remarkably easy. According to the CDC, the list of symptoms has been expanded to:

• Fever or chills
• Cough
• Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
• Fatigue
• Muscle or body aches
• Headache
• New loss of taste or smell
• Sore throat
• Congestion or runny nose
• Nausea or vomiting
• Diarrhea

On that basis, I must have suspected COVID multiple times every week.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Getting back to thread title and whether the world has gone mad...

Coronavirus: New guidance for weddings in England https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53217342

The thing that stands out most about these ridiculous guidelines is this:

Hands should be washed before and after the exchanging of rings

We’re in 2020, not 1920! Given that the majority of couples now live together before marriage, and likely slept in the same bed the night before the ceremony, it’s absolute lunacy to worry about hands being clean on exchange of rings.
If this were in a script for a potential movie about a dystopian future, it would be rejected
‘Look mate, I know this movie is a work of fiction, but come on, nobody is going to believe that. You’re stretching credibility too far now’

 

[Enthusiast]

...and likely slept in the same bed the night before the ceremony,

No no no, skimpot. All of the weddings I have attended where bride and groom have been together before their nuptials have seen them spent the night before in separate premises. Even in these enlightened times some traditions still have to be observed.

But they were probably sleeping in the same bed the night before that, so I get your point. More madness.

 

[adc82140]

It's from the same playbook as "have a one way system round the grill" at a BBQ. Written by some utterly out of touch old duffer within the government somewhere.

 

[Class 33]

.
The magic number you are looking for is 25. Seriously don't play Covid daily Bingo. For a whole host of reasons you CANNOT pick up trends from looking at one day alone.

Looking at rolling averages is better.

Be positive. 25 is almost the same as 0.

That was surprising. 23 hospital deaths, but only 25 deaths in all settings. Once it was announced that there was 23 hospital deaths, I was expecting the total deaths to certainly be over 60 something today. For instance on one day recently it was something like 77 hospital deaths, but the total deaths in all settings was something like 186, so the total deaths was quite a bit higher than the hospital deaths. So really surprised today that the total deaths in all settings is just 2 more than the hospital deaths.

I agree 25 deaths is pretty near to zero. And is a far far cry from the horrendous days back in April when daily deaths were in the 800's and 900's. We've come a long way since then. But once we've got the daily Coronavirus deaths to be consistently sub 50 - which hopefully shouldn't be too far away now, then it is definitely time to scrap social distancing so that we can start getting the economy back to normal again(though a number of bars, cafes, restaurants, etc have already had to close down permanently because of this). It will be beyond ludicrous and insane if say in 4 months time we've got consistently very low Coronavirus daily deaths, and we've still got this social distancing nonsense still going on, "social distancing" and "socially distanced" still mentioned umpteen times on the news, and all these ads on the TV and radio saying things like "We know things are difficult for everyone right now.", "We are living in extraordinary times." and "We're all in this together." We can't continue with social distancing for too much longer! We may not completely irradicate Coronavirus from the UK, but let's get the total daily deaths down to really low levels, so we can finally scrap social distancing.

 

[Scrotnig]

That was surprising. 23 hospital deaths, but only 25 deaths in all settings. Once it was announced that there was 23 hospital deaths, I was expecting the total deaths to certainly be over 60 something today. For instance on one day recently it was something like 77 hospital deaths, but the total deaths in all settings was something like 186, so the total deaths was quite a bit higher than the hospital deaths. So really surprised today that the total deaths in all settings is just 2 more than the hospital deaths.

I agree 25 deaths is pretty near to zero. And is a far far cry from the horrendous days back in April when daily deaths were in the 800's and 900's. We've come a long way since then. But once we've got the daily Coronavirus deaths to be consistently sub 50 - which hopefully shouldn't be too far away now, then it is definitely time to scrap social distancing so that we can start getting the economy back to normal again(though a number of bars, cafes, restaurants, etc have already had to close down permanently because of this). It will be beyond ludicrous and insane if say in 4 months time we've got consistently very low Coronavirus daily deaths, and we've still got this social distancing nonsense still going on, "social distancing" and "socially distanced" still mentioned umpteen times on the news, and all these ads on the TV and radio saying things like "We know things are difficult for everyone right now.", "We are living in extraordinary times." and "We're all in this together." We can't continue with social distancing for too much longer! We may not completely irradicate Coronavirus from the UK, but let's get the total daily deaths down to really low levels, so we can finally scrap social distancing.

Whilst I don't disagree with, realistically we are a very long way from any of that happening. A year or more I'd say. Regardless of figures.

 

[BJames]

Completely agree - a bit of realism from both sides of society is needed here. Some people won

Suspecting a case of COVID is now remarkably easy. According to the CDC, the list of symptoms has been expanded to:



On that basis, I must have suspected COVID multiple times every week.

Same! For the last 5 months I've had suspected COVID then.

I walked past my local pub earlier to hear the pub landlord saying to a passerby that they would be having an extra member of staff on the doors to check temperatures as people enter. To me, we've got to get testing sorted and speed of it increased - we can't be hibernating for 14 days (potentially multiple times) each time we have a temperature (or a sore throat if the UK's list of symptoms expands to match the CDC's!). The world will never get moving again if that has to keep happening.

 

[HSTEd]

That was surprising. 23 hospital deaths, but only 25 deaths in all settings. Once it was announced that there was 23 hospital deaths, I was expecting the total deaths to certainly be over 60 something today. For instance on one day recently it was something like 77 hospital deaths, but the total deaths in all settings was something like 186, so the total deaths was quite a bit higher than the hospital deaths. So really surprised today that the total deaths in all settings is just 2 more than the hospital deaths.

The hospitals are empty, so care homes are sending anyone who might have COVID into them to get them out of the way and try and stop them from infecting everyone else.

They won't release restrictions because the virus still exists and we are basically back where we ere in February.
We're now stuck like this until the Government decides to accept the casualties from the virus.

 

[JonathanH]

We're now stuck like this until the Government decides to accept the casualties from the virus.

I don't think the government has the option to 'accept the casualties from the virus' because if they do, all those people who want to go abroad on holiday will find their 'air bridge' shut. It would also need the media to accept the casualties which they are very unlikely to do.

The 'casualties from the virus' are without doubt the main measure people are using to judge the government's performance.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't think the government has the option to 'accept the casualties from the virus' because if they do, all those people who want to go abroad on holiday will find their 'air bridge' shut. It would also need the media to accept the casualties which they are very unlikely to do.

What are the media going to do?
When the reality of what they have been signed up for sets in - the public wil turn against the lockdown.

And once the Government decides to accept the casualties it would be over in a handful of months..........

 

[talldave]

Completely agree - a bit of realism from both sides of society is needed here. Some people won

Same! For the last 5 months I've had suspected COVID then.

I walked past my local pub earlier to hear the pub landlord saying to a passerby that they would be having an extra member of staff on the doors to check temperatures as people enter. To me, we've got to get testing sorted and speed of it increased - we can't be hibernating for 14 days (potentially multiple times) each time we have a temperature (or a sore throat if the UK's list of symptoms expands to match the CDC's!). The world will never get moving again if that has to keep happening.

My other half walked out of an independent shop earlier today when the owner pulled out a temperature gizmo. The owner came running after her, begging her to go back in (third or fourth walk out of the day). It sounds like she's been on a course - where they undoubtedly sold her a temperature gizmo - and has lost the ability to think for herself. We can regain control by walking away.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

My other half walked out of an independent shop earlier today when the owner pulled out a temperature gizmo. The owner came running after her, begging her to go back in (third or fourth walk out of the day). It sounds like she's been on a course - where they undoubtedly sold her a temperature gizmo - and has lost the ability to think for herself. We can regain control by walking away.

What was the old mantra, if you wanted to be successful in retail? The customer is king (or queen)!
Any of the supermarket chains that is the first to unpeel those dreadful floor stickers, abandon one-way systems, take staff off policing the queues, and put them back on the tills, will get 100% of my weekly grocery spend.
The brain-washed and terrified can continue to frequent the other retailers, if they want to keep their social distancing blankets.
Perhaps the people at Morrisons will resurrect the old brand name they acquired when expanding from their Northern roots... and reposition themselves as Safeway once again

 

[Enthusiast]

That was surprising. 23 hospital deaths, but only 25 deaths in all settings. Once it was announced that there was 23 hospital deaths, I was expecting the total deaths to certainly be over 60 something today. For instance on one day recently it was something like 77 hospital deaths, but the total deaths in all settings was something like 186, so the total deaths was quite a bit higher than the hospital deaths. So really surprised today that the total deaths in all settings is just 2 more than the hospital deaths.

It's Monday.

 

[corfield]

When deaths were in the 600s, plus or minus 10 was nothing. It's just down at these levels it's noticeable.

In addition, don't forget that any death where CV is confirmed or suspected counts, even if the primary cause of death is something completely different. For example if you happen to be Covid positive, and get run over by a bus, officially the Covid killed you.

Died of covid vs died with covid.

It seems manifestly against the Govts interests to count in this manner as it makes them look worse? I’d cynically have expected them to make it hard to attribite a seath to Covid! Along the lines of requring agreement from both parents and a signed statement from lucifer!

 

[HSTEd]

It seems manifestly against the Govts interests to count in this manner as it makes them look worse? I’d cynically have expected them to make it hard to attribite a seath to Covid! Along the lines of requring agreement from both parents and a signed statement from lucifer!

It keeps the populace scared and in line though, which is what they want.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

It keeps the populace scared and in line though, which is what they want.

To control the virus or control the people, THAT is the question...

 

[scarby]

My other half walked out of an independent shop earlier today when the owner pulled out a temperature gizmo. The owner came running after her, begging her to go back in (third or fourth walk out of the day). It sounds like she's been on a course - where they undoubtedly sold her a temperature gizmo - and has lost the ability to think for herself. We can regain control by walking away.

I’m not leaving Sweden until there’s somewhere else to visit that is sane. As far as I am concerned Sweden‘s response means I’d rather much rather spend my money there.

And once the Government decides to accept the casualties it would be over in a handful of months..........

Exactly what’s happened in Sweden.

Now deaths and hospitalisations have been falling for 2 months, despite increased human activity, the media has stopped writing its anti-Sweden stories. It doesn’t fit their narrative. Summer in Sweden is looking good.

 

[corfield]

It keeps the populace scared and in line though, which is what they want.

Come on, that’s a bit conspiracist!

Given the flack they are getting, which is a fraction of the flack they will get, for the deaths - then minimising that would surely be their prime interest!

 

[HSTEd]

Come on, that’s a bit conspiracist!

Given the flack they are getting, which is a fraction of the flack they will get, for the deaths - then minimising that would surely be their prime interest!

We literally have SAGE minutes stating that the public must be made afraid so that they would obey.
Its there in black and white.

Its why they keep trumpeting it when young people without underlying conditions die of the disease.
Even though that is a tiny handful of people.

 

[adc82140]

The key word is also no "Known" underlying health condition as well.