Proposals for "Northern arc": linking north Oxfordshire (Banbury) with Northampton and Peterborough

[A0wen]

It would really help me and no doubt thousands of others if there was a line from Luton to Milton Keynes.

I can absolutely see the merit in this - what I can't for the life of me see is how it could be done !

As someone who knows far more about these things than I even begin to claim to - is there even a remotely viable option ? By which I mean one which doesn't give HS2 a run for its money in the cost stakes and doesn't fundamentally screw up the MML or WCML timetabling.

I think that was considered as an option for EWR, at least from Bletchley, but discarded partly because of the difficulty of continuing eastwards to the ECML and Cambridge and because it was too far south to be the optimum Oxford-MK-Cambridge route. It looks relatively easy to diverge off the MML at Sundon (grade separation needed though) and follow the M1 to join the Bedford-Bletchley line at Ridgmont. It always struck me as a sensible section but obviously out of line with EWR's objectives - but perhaps something this Arc study ought to be considering?

Wasn't there also a not insignificant matter of where you went after Luton, bearing in mind the MML and both stations (Town and Parkway) are at the bottom of a very steep hill ? Add in the fact the MML's capacity constrained with its current Thameslink and EMR demands ?

That's in addition to the key aim of EWR being connection of Oxford - MK - Cambridge.

 

[Bald Rick]

I can absolutely see the merit in this - what I can't for the life of me see is how it could be done !

As someone who knows far more about these things than I even begin to claim to - is there even a remotely viable option ? By which I mean one which doesn't give HS2 a run for its money in the cost stakes and doesn't fundamentally screw up the MML or WCML timetabling.

I don’t think it’s been looked at recently.

Quick look at the map suggests to me that’s one opton would be come off the MML north of Flitwick, skirt just south of Center Parcs (with a station open Monday’s and Fridays only ), joining Bedford - Bletchley just east of Ridgmont. About 4 miles of new railway, plus a big flyover at Flitwick, probably about £250m. Services could be extensions of the Luton terminators so few capacity issues there. What they’d do at the Bletchley end I don’t know.

 

[A0wen]

I don’t think it’s been looked at recently.

Quick look at the map suggests to me that’s one opton would be come off the MML north of Flitwick, skirt just south of Center Parcs (with a station open Monday’s and Fridays only ), joining Bedford - Bletchley just east of Ridgmont. About 4 miles of new railway, plus a big flyover at Flitwick, probably about £250m. Services could be extensions of the Luton terminators so few capacity issues there. What they’d do at the Bletchley end I don’t know.

I think the Bletchley end is a problem - given nobody's yet managed to work a way to send the current Marston Vale terminators up to MKC, that's before you deal with the small matter of the terminating bay at MK being a little on the short side for a Thameslink 700......

 

[Tobbes]

I think the Bletchley end is a problem - given nobody's yet managed to work a way to send the current Marston Vale terminators up to MKC, that's before you deal with the small matter of the terminating bay at MK being a little on the short side for a Thameslink 700......

Yes, would you build a E-N chord at Bletchley to access the WCML, @Bald Rick?

 

[Starmill]

What about a half-hourly Thameslink bus service Luton - Dunstable - Leighton Buzzard? The current services provided by Arriva aren't bad but they're less frequent, don't seem to run in the evenings and have no railway integration. You could open a virtual railway station at Dunstable and operate Thameslink branded buses, and improve the waiting areas at Leighton Buzzard and Luton. There's already been public money spent on the busway infrastructure to enable part of that route too. The bus could continue via the A4146 to Milton Keynes Central Station at peak times.

 

[A0wen]

What about a half-hourly Thameslink bus service Luton - Dunstable - Leighton Buzzard? The current services provided by Arriva aren't bad but they're less frequent, don't seem to run in the evenings and have no railway integration. You could open a virtual railway station at Dunstable and operate Thameslink branded buses, and improve the waiting areas at Leighton Buzzard and Luton. There's already been public money spent on the busway infrastructure to enable part of that route too. The bus could continue via the A4146 to Milton Keynes Central Station at peak times.

Don't forget there's already the Stagecoach 99 which started life as the VT99 Virgin Rail-link from MK to Luton Airport and ran with Virgin branded coaches.

I suspect the coach via the M1 is quicker than the bus to Leighton Buzzard plus onward train.

 

[Starmill]

Don't forget there's already the Stagecoach 99 which started life as the VT99 Virgin Rail-link from MK to Luton Airport and ran with Virgin branded coaches.

I suspect the coach via the M1 is quicker than the bus to Leighton Buzzard plus onward train.

Presumably yes but given there's already a comprehensive service that basically does that...

 

[Bald Rick]

Yes, would you build a E-N chord at Bletchley to access the WCML, @Bald Rick?

No idea!

I think a better express bus service would be the better option.

 

[mr_jrt]

I mean, the obvious no-expense-spared option would have been reinstating Luton-Dunstable-Leighton Buzzard, then up the WCML to MK...

...I'll get my coat.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

I mean, the obvious no-expense-spared option would have been reinstating Luton-Dunstable-Leighton Buzzard, then up the WCML to MK...

...I'll get my coat.

There was a campaign to re-open that at one point as a heritage railway (or rather, there was a chap who harassed Network Rail, ORR and South Bedfordshire Council about turning it into a railway).

 

[Starmill]

I mean, the obvious no-expense-spared option would have been reinstating Luton-Dunstable-Leighton Buzzard, then up the WCML to MK...

...I'll get my coat.

Would you shut down the busway?

 

[BanburyBlue]

Perhaps not - but equally when I talk to people I know socially I don't think anyone has ever been making trips to Banbury.

A few, with specific business interests have gone to Peterboro, but wouldn't have used the train even if it existed, because it was usually part of a day involving journeys to other places as well.

I keep coming back to the point that successful rail reopenings have been with journeys where currently there is a well used bus service. Northampton, Daventry or Towcester to Banbury fails on that straight out.

Northampton to Peterborough does exist, though I don't know how many people make it end to end. Certainly the Corby to Peterborough part is less well used.

I tend to think it may be the other way around. I live in Banbury and I know a lot of people who travel to Northampton. Don’t forget, with Banbury right on the Northamptonshire border, there are a lot of people who live in the area around Banbury who would go to Northampton as their county town (hospital, courts, county council etc). Indeed, we used to go shopping in Northampton quite a lot. I’m not surprised people in Northampton don’t have a need to to Banbury - after all, it’s 4 times the size.

 

[A0wen]

I tend to think it may be the other way around. I live in Banbury and I know a lot of people who travel to Northampton. Don’t forget, with Banbury right on the Northamptonshire border, there are a lot of people who live in the area around Banbury who would go to Northampton as their county town (hospital, courts, county council etc). Indeed, we used to go shopping in Northampton quite a lot. I’m not surprised people in Northampton don’t have a need to to Banbury - after all, it’s 4 times the size.

They don't for things like hospital, you're not referred on county lines. If you're in Brackley or one of the villages in West Northants you're more likely to be referred to John Radcliffe at Oxford or even MK than Northampton General.

On school allocations, again these aren't limited by county boundaries and, particularly secondary, will often cross county boundaries with children attending schools in Bucks or Oxon despite living in Northants.

Most people only have limited dealings with the County Council and rarely face to face. Even fewer will be attending court.

Few people are shopping in Northampton now, particularly as it has lost House of Fraser, M&S, BHS among others. One of the two shopping 'arcades' is likely to close due to lack if demand for retail units.

This whole 'but Northampton's a county town' thing is a nonsense. Similar nonsense was being peddled on, IIRC, the Wisbech thread where it was being claimed Wisbech needs a link to Cambridge as the county town and the same about Spalding for Lincoln, yet the reality is both of these look to Peterborough which is closer and can meet most people's needs.

 

[BanburyBlue]

They don't for things like hospital, you're not referred on county lines. If you're in Brackley or one of the villages in West Northants you're more likely to be referred to John Radcliffe at Oxford or even MK than Northampton General.

On school allocations, again these aren't limited by county boundaries and, particularly secondary, will often cross county boundaries with children attending schools in Bucks or Oxon despite living in Northants.

Most people only have limited dealings with the County Council and rarely face to face. Even fewer will be attending court.

Few people are shopping in Northampton now, particularly as it has lost House of Fraser, M&S, BHS among others. One of the two shopping 'arcades' is likely to close due to lack if demand for retail units.

Okay, probably used bad example. I think my point still stands though. As Northampton is so much larger than Banbury, there would be more reasons for people from Banbury, North Oxfordshire and South Northants to go to Northampton than other way around,

 

[A0wen]

Okay, probably used bad example. I think my point still stands though. As Northampton is so much larger than Banbury, there would be more reasons for people from Banbury, North Oxfordshire and South Northants to go to Northampton than other way around,

But if you're in Brackley it's just over 20 miles to Northampton, 20 miles to Milton Keynes, just over 20 miles to Oxford and 11 miles to Bicester.

Of those, Northampton is the weakest from a shopping point of view, probably comes 3rd, behind MK and Oxford on the availability of jobs and probably ties with Oxford and MK on a leisure perspective. Whilst I don't doubt some people travel between Brackley and Northampton, I don't believe it's the primary traffic flow and am sceptical it's the second.

I picked on Brackley because it is a small town and therefore is likely to have people travelling from it to access certain facilities, though the same will apply to its surrounding villages.

If you looked at Towcester, MK is a couple of miles further than Northampton yet more people travel from Towcester to MK than Northampton - again jobs being a prime reason, but also if you're accessing the national rail network, in the time the train takes to get from MK to Northampton, you can get from MK to Towcester.

 

[edwin_m]

But if you're in Brackley it's just over 20 miles to Northampton, 20 miles to Milton Keynes, just over 20 miles to Oxford and 11 miles to Bicester.

Of those, Northampton is the weakest from a shopping point of view, probably comes 3rd, behind MK and Oxford on the availability of jobs and probably ties with Oxford and MK on a leisure perspective. Whilst I don't doubt some people travel between Brackley and Northampton, I don't believe it's the primary traffic flow and am sceptical it's the second.

I picked on Brackley because it is a small town and therefore is likely to have people travelling from it to access certain facilities, though the same will apply to its surrounding villages.

If you looked at Towcester, MK is a couple of miles further than Northampton yet more people travel from Towcester to MK than Northampton - again jobs being a prime reason, but also if you're accessing the national rail network, in the time the train takes to get from MK to Northampton, you can get from MK to Towcester.

With this series of posts you're starting from the premise that everyone has access to a car and will continue to do so. For some people that's not true now and I don't think we can take that as a given any more when thinking a couple of decades ahead. It's likely that addressing climate change will require considerable reduction in road travel, not just the substitution of electric vehicles (which have more embodied carbon than an IC vehicle and still generate tyre particulates).

From that premise it's entirely right to consider whether new rail links is part of the solution to maintain a degree of mobility. In the sorts of semi-rural environment we are discussing here they will undoubtedly have to be integrated with feeder buses, and it may be that, after due consideration, buses can offer an adequate solution especially if there is less traffic on the roads. But essentially assuming that everyone has to have a car to enjoy mobility in these areas, which are still relatively densely populated despite not having major cities, is in my view taking the wrong place to start.

 

[BanburyBlue]

But if you're in Brackley it's just over 20 miles to Northampton, 20 miles to Milton Keynes, just over 20 miles to Oxford and 11 miles to Bicester.

Of those, Northampton is the weakest from a shopping point of view, probably comes 3rd, behind MK and Oxford on the availability of jobs and probably ties with Oxford and MK on a leisure perspective. Whilst I don't doubt some people travel between Brackley and Northampton, I don't believe it's the primary traffic flow and am sceptical it's the second.

I picked on Brackley because it is a small town and therefore is likely to have people travelling from it to access certain facilities, though the same will apply to its surrounding villages.

If you looked at Towcester, MK is a couple of miles further than Northampton yet more people travel from Towcester to MK than Northampton - again jobs being a prime reason, but also if you're accessing the national rail network, in the time the train takes to get from MK to Northampton, you can get from MK to Towcester.

Totally agree with a lot of what you’ve said. We used to go to Northampton quite a lot for shopping. My wife loved the outdoor market (what’s that like these days?). These days we tend to head to MK. A lot of people go to Northampton for leisure (football, rugby, Sixfields, theatre etc), but accept these aren’t in the town centre. It is a major employment centre and does have the university.

 

[A0wen]

With this series of posts you're starting from the premise that everyone has access to a car and will continue to do so. For some people that's not true now and I don't think we can take that as a given any more when thinking a couple of decades ahead. It's likely that addressing climate change will require considerable reduction in road travel, not just the substitution of electric vehicles (which have more embodied carbon than an IC vehicle and still generate tyre particulates).

From that premise it's entirely right to consider whether new rail links is part of the solution to maintain a degree of mobility. In the sorts of semi-rural environment we are discussing here they will undoubtedly have to be integrated with feeder buses, and it may be that, after due consideration, buses can offer an adequate solution especially if there is less traffic on the roads. But essentially assuming that everyone has to have a car to enjoy mobility in these areas, which are still relatively densely populated despite not having major cities, is in my view taking the wrong place to start.

The reality is the car is here to stay. Electricity has to be generated whether to power a car, bus or train. And with diesel a half-empty diesel train emits far more emissions than if the passengers on that train were using a modern diesel hatchback. Same will be true of electricity.

And buses and trains need drivers, trains need infrastructure in terms if track - all of those are costs which have to be covered. The economics of operating different modes of transport don't change just because the source of their power changes. And therefore rural or semi rural lines will continue to be loss making and require heavy subsidies and will lack flexibility by virtue of the economies required to run them.

 

[A0wen]

There was a campaign to re-open that at one point as a heritage railway (or rather, there was a chap who harassed Network Rail, ORR and South Bedfordshire Council about turning it into a railway).

Actually I think it was about 1/2 a mile around Dunstable which was basically an industrial area........ For some strange reason he couldn't understand why so many if us were sceptical about the likely attraction to tourists....... Another theme peddled was Bedfordshire doesn't have a standard gauge Heritage Railway, conveniently ignoring the fact Beds isn't alone in that respect.

Back on topic though - improving connections between Luton and MK has merit, how that's best achieved is a different question.

 

[edwin_m]

The reality is the car is here to stay. Electricity has to be generated whether to power a car, bus or train. And with diesel a half-empty diesel train emits far more emissions than if the passengers on that train were using a modern diesel hatchback. Same will be true of electricity.

And buses and trains need drivers, trains need infrastructure in terms if track - all of those are costs which have to be covered. The economics of operating different modes of transport don't change just because the source of their power changes. And therefore rural or semi rural lines will continue to be loss making and require heavy subsidies and will lack flexibility by virtue of the economies required to run them.

Other points of view are available.

I agree with what you say about diesel cars versus trains, but it's less likely to be true with electric power because feeding it directly to an electric train is far more efficient than charging and discharging a battery.

I agree also there are costs to buses and trains. That's why the need for them on a particular route needs to be closely evaluated, rather than just attempting to close down the discussion by saying everyone will drive everywhere for the foreseeable future.

 

[Starmill]

I fail to understand why anyone who lives near Banbury would go shopping in Northampton rather than Birmingham.

 

[A0wen]

I fail to understand why anyone who lives near Banbury would go shopping in Northampton rather than Birmingham.

+1, though I'd add Oxford, Bicester or MK to that list, all of which are closer.

 

[Starmill]

Yes although you would probably still drive to Centre MK or Bicester Village regardless of how good the rail services became, whereas Birmingham city centre is already very well served by train.

 

[A0wen]

Other points of view are available.

Believe what you like, but public transport isn't going to be able to serve every village or hamlet. It never did in the past, which is why people retained their horse and cart despite the advent of both the train and the motor bus.

Whether you like it or not, the car is here to stay.

There are 70% more rail journeys made now than in 1950, yet rail's share of transport is about 10%. https://www.statista.com/statistics...-passenger-journeys-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

People's freedom to travel how they like is like democracy. That genie is out of the bottle, you're not going to put it back.

Yes although you would probably still drive to Centre MK or Bicester Village regardless of how good the rail services became, whereas Birmingham city centre is already very well served by train.

Not disputing that, but shopping by train limits how much you can buy, which is why it lacks attractiveness for anything other than "lightweight" shopping. Good luck taking an Ikea bookcase home on a train......

 

[AlbertBeale]

People's freedom to travel how they like is like democracy. That genie is out of the bottle, you're not going to put it back.

Hmm - I'm not sure which definition of democracy covers someone's "freedom" to consume more than their fair share of the planet's resources, and to damage the ecosystem for the rest of us. The current level of human population is such that everyone travelling "how they like" might - depending on what they decide they like, of course - be fatal for our species.

Hence - linking back to the topic(!) - I'm all for serious investigation of any possible public transport improvements, such as the new rail link being discussed in this thread.

And re "...public transport isn't going to be able to serve every village or hamlet...", well, the places being talked about here aren't villages or hamlets.

Not disputing that, but shopping by train limits how much you can buy, which is why it lacks attractiveness for anything other than "lightweight" shopping. Good luck taking an Ikea bookcase home on a train......

Been there - done that. And a table.

 

[A0wen]

Hmm - I'm not sure which definition of democracy covers someone's "freedom" to consume more than their fair share of the planet's resources, and to damage the ecosystem for the rest of us. The current level of human population is such that everyone travelling "how they like" might - depending on what they decide they like, of course - be fatal for our species.

Define "fair share" - and having done so, by most reasonable definitions you'll find UK public transport is still a disproportionate consumer - even more so when, as in the case of many trains and buses, they are operating below capacity.

Been there - done that. And a table.

For many people it isn't practical.

 

[telstarbox]

These are the latest Travel to Work Areas from the 2011 Census. These are defined as: "of the resident economically active population, at least 75% actually work in the area, and also, that of everyone working in the area, at least 75% actually live in the area."

The Northampton one includes Daventry and Towcester, but not Banbury: https://mapit.mysociety.org/area/163666.html

Banbury has its own area which includes Brackley: https://mapit.mysociety.org/area/163580.html

This means that Banbury has fairly small levels of out-commuting to Oxford or Northampton.

 

[edwin_m]

Define "fair share" - and having done so, by most reasonable definitions you'll find UK public transport is still a disproportionate consumer - even more so when, as in the case of many trains and buses, they are operating below capacity.

Not all are, perhaps you should get out of your car and try some?

Just because you aren't prepared to consider any alternative, that doesn't mean the same apply to everyone. Just saying everyone drives and will continue to drive is missing the point, that improving public transport is intended to give people an alternative. You say the use of a car is democracy, but surely democracy involves a choice?

 

[si404]

These are the latest Travel to Work Areas from the 2011 Census. These are defined as: "of the resident economically active population, at least 75% actually work in the area, and also, that of everyone working in the area, at least 75% actually live in the area."

This means that Banbury has fairly small levels of out-commuting to Oxford or Northampton.

Though this doesn't stop high quality rail corridors being built to serve them nor does it mean that there's not a load of rail traffic between them. Case in point - this TTWA, the 4th largest in the country (behind London, Birmingham and Manchester): https://mapit.mysociety.org/area/163685.html (and it could really do with more internal links that aren't just London radials)

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Not disputing that, but shopping by train limits how much you can buy, which is why it lacks attractiveness for anything other than "lightweight" shopping. Good luck taking an Ikea bookcase home on a train......

There's this whole home delivery thing, I'm told? Apparently a few people have tried it over the past few months. Maybe some of them post to this forum and can tell us how well it works.