Boris to resign? (Speculation) And who should replace him?

[37424]

Cameron repeatedly stated that he'd implement whichever result of the referendum transpired, but then buggered off at great speed when he lost. I think it says a lot about our politics that nobody believed him at the time he made his promise to stick around, and nobody was surprised when he buggered off afterwards, but why do we let these people get away with saying these things?

I still think it was the right thing to do, he didn't expect to loose and i'm not sure any politician would have said before the referendum well i will quit if it goes against me.

 

[najaB]

Cameron repeatedly stated that he'd implement whichever result of the referendum transpired, but then buggered off at great speed when he lost.

I don't remember now and would need to check - did he say that he would implement the result, or that the (or his) Government would do so?

 

[jfollows]

I don't remember now and would need to check - did he say that he would implement the result, or that the (or his) Government would do so?

"EU referendum: David Cameron says he will stay as Prime Minister regardless of result", The Independent, Saturday 18 June 2016 (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...stay-prime-minister-result-poll-a7088811.html)

The PM said he was the best person to negotiate any post-referendum deal

Jon Stone@joncstone

Saturday 18 June 2016 11:16

David Cameron has said he will remain at Downing Street regardless of the result of the EU referendum.

The Prime Minister told The Times Magazine that he was the best person to lead negotiations after a Leave vote on account of his "strong relationships" with other EU countries.

He added that he felt responsible for the referendum because it was a policy that he had included in the Conservative manifesto.

“I just get on with the job. I have a very clear mandate from the British people to serve as Prime Minister in a Conservative Government, delivering a referendum,” he said.

Asked whether he could stay in his post in the event of Brexit, he replied: “Yes. I think it's very important that the individual careers of individual politicians don't get caught up in this question.

“It won't be a verdict on me, whatever the outcome is. It's a verdict on the question, but I do care a lot about the question.”

Mr Cameron spent much of last year after the general election jetting back and forth between Brussels and London to negotiate changes to Britain’s membership of the EU.

Though he did not come back with the full changes he had promised, he won the backing and sympathy of some major EU powers.

Whether the PM would stay on after a vote is still a vexed question, however.

Some Conservative MPs have reportedly been plotting to remove Mr Cameron in the event of a Brexit or even a narrow win for Remain.

The issue is further complicated by George Osborne’s announcement in the last week that any post-Brexit budget would raise the basic rate of income tax by 2 per cent of implement swingeing cuts to the NHS and schools.

Fifty-seven Tory MPs responded to the announcement by saying they would not back such a budget from their own Chancellor. A failure to pass a budget would count as a vote of no confidence in the government and Mr Cameron.

The European Union referendum is on 23 June. The deadline to register to vote has already passed. Polls show the Leave campaign opening up a lead.

At the time I said to myself "he's lying, and everyone knows that he's lying". I don't think I am exceptionally clever for thinking that at the time, realistic and cynical perhaps. He was probably lying to himself, and he felt he had to say it anyway to increase his chance of "winning". But I didn't see him getting called out on the point much at the time.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

In the early stages of this I would have agreed however Labour seems to have gone down the 'lockdown with end' avenue. Based on the behavior of the northern Mayors* and Drakeford in Wales (and I am Welsh) they fill me with absolute dread. I even have a cynical feeling they want to induce as much economic and sociological damage as possible for political reasons.

Edit- * must not forget the erstwhile mayor of London!

I would go with Javid or Sunak. Gove - there's something about him...

I have to agree, its weird to see the left so hellbent on lockdowns. Partly, its because I don't think the left appreciate that "the economy" exists in real terms, rather they seem to see it as "bankers exchanging money". Sure, sacrificing money in favour of saving lives is an honourable cause, but its nowhere near as simple as that.

I too would of liked to have seen a national government. The only trouble is the SNP would want to join and unfortuantley, having so many seats in Scotland they would have a right to ask. However, could we really trust the SNP being part of a government they seek to undermine ? I certainly couldn't. But the downside would be the rehtoric that would come from their side of the benches such as "a national government with no representation in Scotland". It's a pity.

A national government makes sense post-pandemic anyway. The Labour Party looks set to follow the Tories' "levelling-up" agenda-so collaberation between the two rather than two competing visions on the same agenda seems more logical. Plus, it would help cordinate a pan-Union effort against growing Scottish nationalism, instead of leaving the fate of the Union to Boris Johnson (bad idea). Labour could, in theory, force the Tories' hands in accepting a Brexit deal, so at least we could avoid a no-deal and the Tories could conveniently "blame" Labour.

I wonder if Labour's harsh stance on lockdowns will damage their recent rise in the polls.

 

[najaB]

Plus, it would help cordinate a pan-Union effort against growing Scottish nationalism, instead of leaving the fate of the Union to Boris Johnson (bad idea).

The rise in support for independence (to the point where it's now the majority position) has been driven almost exclusively by Boris and his government's actions wrt to Brexit and the handling of the Covid-19 epidemic, rather than a rise in nationalist sentiment north of the border. I was very strongly "No" in the 2014 referendum and still believe that, were things anywhere close to normal, Scotland would be better off as part of the UK. But given the direction that the English are taking the country, I'm starting to question if it's time to make a change.

By analogy, I quite like this Titanic boat but I'm not comfortable with the bridge crew's attitude towards icebergs.

Opinion polling on Scottish independence - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Sad Sprinter]

The rise in support for independence (to the point where it's now the majority position) has been driven almost exclusively by Boris and his government's actions wrt to Brexit and the handling of the Covid-19 epidemic, rather than a rise in nationalist sentiment north of the border. I was very strongly "No" in the 2014 referendum and still believe that, were things anywhere close to normal, Scotland would be better off as part of the UK. But given the direction that the English are taking the country, I'm starting to question if it's time to make a change.

By analogy, I quite like this Titanic boat but I'm not comfortable with the bridge crew's attitude towards icebergs.

Opinion polling on Scottish independence - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ah-but if your going to jump off the Titanic remember the water is freezing cold.

Besides, its not just the English, its the Welsh too. They voted for Brexit and for Boris in the last election. The COVID response in England and Scotland has been more or less the same. The only difference is Sturgeon has appeared to be in more control of it than Boris-but had Scotland left in 2014, Sturgeon would have much more on her hands as she tries to save the Scottish economy as well. I seriously doubt she would have received the lustre she has now.

 

[yorksrob]

The rise in support for independence (to the point where it's now the majority position) has been driven almost exclusively by Boris and his government's actions wrt to Brexit and the handling of the Covid-19 epidemic, rather than a rise in nationalist sentiment north of the border. I was very strongly "No" in the 2014 referendum and still believe that, were things anywhere close to normal, Scotland would be better off as part of the UK. But given the direction that the English are taking the country, I'm starting to question if it's time to make a change.

By analogy, I quite like this Titanic boat but I'm not comfortable with the bridge crew's attitude towards icebergs.

Opinion polling on Scottish independence - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Granted on Brexit, but COVID ? The nationalists seem to be taking Scotland in the same direction as Boris, only quicker.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I reckon the longer this fiasco continues - the shorter BJ's tenure as PM becomes. You don't have to be clued up on politics to sense that Boris is sailing in a complete s**t storm at present - he is between a rock & a hard place with everything he does, everything he doesn't do and anything he says. I'm not overly a huge fan of the bloke, but I think anyone on this forum would agree he is doing a job which most certainly must be affecting his physical & mental health by now. He has been eating, breathing, s**ting Covid since March and has probably not had much downtime with his partner or son either. My guess is that he will continue to fight on and stand down once Covid is finally behind us - maybe sometime next year (2021). As I've said on another thread, the rebuilding of the economy needs to be done by a fresh pair of hands and a fresh mind - all the present cabinet members seem to be in 'burn-out' mode. Matt Hancock is looking really tired and flustered now - as I've said before, I suspect we will be the first to step down from office.

CJ

 

[najaB]

Granted on Brexit, but COVID ? The nationalists seem to be taking Scotland in the same direction as Boris, only quicker.

The difference is that, while you might not agree that the strategy is the best one, it has at least been consistent and appears to be driven by honest intent, rather than political expediency.

 

[yorksrob]

The difference is that, while you might not agree that the strategy is the best one, it has at least been consistent and appears to be driven by honest intent, rather than political expediency.

Better to be wrong with confidence I suppose.

 

[37424]

The difference is that, while you might not agree that the strategy is the best one, it has at least been consistent and appears to be driven by honest intent, rather than political expediency.

Indeed but in an actual Referendum the Nationalists are going to have to come back to questions, about Currency, about rejoining the EU and the prospects of an EU Border between England and Scotland if they did. In fact I do wonder that if Boris were to get a deal with the EU and obviously that option isn't looking great at the moment, if after a few years would the majority of Scots actually be that keen to rejoin the EU?

 

[edwin_m]

Well yes, I wouldn't disagree with that, if Johnson were to leave with No Deal and then quit then I think that would be a major dereliction of Duty in my view, but to his merry band of Hard Brexiteers he would no doubt be a hero, where as I think he should have to stand trial for crimes against the state in that situation. On the other hand if he got a Trade Deal he could leave and say I got the UK out of the EU with a trade deal that doesn't closely tie us to the EU. I personally don't think he will go until close to the next election and may even fight that depending on how things go of which there are many variables at present.

Not only that, his lies during the referendum campaign are one of the main reasons we are saddled with Brexit in the first place. A ruinous policy talked up and inflicted on the population, for no reason I can see other than the personal aggrandizement of Boris Johnson. Having gained ultimate power not only is he unsurprisingly incompetent at wielding it, but he doesn't even seem to be enjoying it. It's as if he only ever did it to show he could. A bit like the politics of a school debating society.

I have to agree, its weird to see the left so hellbent on lockdowns. Partly, its because I don't think the left appreciate that "the economy" exists in real terms, rather they seem to see it as "bankers exchanging money". Sure, sacrificing money in favour of saving lives is an honourable cause, but its nowhere near as simple as that.

The right keeps going on about the economic impact of lockdown but they show no concern at all about the much more avoidable economic impact of Brexit. There's also an argument that more severe measures now, in combination with a properly-run track and trace, might bring infections down low enough for confidence to return and economic activity to resume.

I wonder if Labour's harsh stance on lockdowns will damage their recent rise in the polls.

Contrary to the view of those who post most of often about it on this forum, the polls I have seen suggest the public is in favour.

 

[najaB]

Indeed but in an actual Referendum the Nationalists are going to have to come back to questions, about Currency, about rejoining the EU and the prospects of an EU Border between England and Scotland if they did.

There is going to be a customs border either between Scotland and NI or Scotland and England (if we become independent). As to currency and re-joining the EU, a bad Brexit will damage the value of the pound, so the Euro may become more attractive - especially if a united Ireland is on the cards too.

In fact I do wonder that if Boris were to get a deal with the EU and obviously that option isn't looking great at the moment, if after a few years would the majority of Scots actually be that keen to rejoin the EU?

That would largely depend on the nature of the trading and political relationship between the UK and the EU. If it was (as promised) similar to that which exists between the EU and Norway then it would be difficult to make the case for re-joining. As it now seems inevitable that we will be on significantly worse terms than we previously were (it's pretty clear that we will be outside the customs union), then there will be a case to be made.

Contrary to the view of those who post most of often about it on this forum, the polls I have seen suggest the public is in favour.

I believe the public is in favour of a plan seen all the way through, whatever that plan is. Rather than what seems to be the "plan of the week" that we've been getting so far from Westminster.

 

[jfollows]

Not only that, his lies during the referendum campaign are one of the main reasons we are saddled with Brexit in the first place. A ruinous policy talked up and inflicted on the population, for no reason I can see other than the personal aggrandizement of Boris Johnson. Having gained ultimate power not only is he unsurprisingly incompetent at wielding it, but he doesn't even seem to be enjoying it. It's as if he only ever did it to show he could. A bit like the politics of a school debating society.

There was a good article a few months ago in The Guardian to the effect that Boris's goal now is "to have been Prime Minister" which followed his previous target of "to become Prime Minister" and that, unfortunately, he's not any good at the bit in the middle, the bit of actually being Prime Minister. A view with which I concur, incidentally.

 

[nlogax]

There was a good article a few months ago in The Guardian to the effect that Boris's goal now is "to have been Prime Minister" which followed his previous target of "to become Prime Minister" and that, unfortunately, he's not any good at the bit in the middle, the bit of actually being Prime Minister. A view with which I concur, incidentally.

His ineptitude as PM was as predictable as the seasons.

Actually, no, probably more predictable than that. Seasons aren't so reliable these days.

 

[Busaholic]

... “to spend more time with family, weekly Telegraph column, and book deal".

But which family, or should that be a weekly affair too?

 

[jfollows]

His ineptitude as PM was as predictable as the seasons.

Actually, no, probably more predictable than that. Seasons aren't so reliable these days.

Max Hastings wrote "I have a hunch that Johnson will come to regret securing the prize for which he has struggled so long, because the experience of the premiership will lay bare his absolute unfitness for it." back in June 2019 (https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain).

Sorry for just quoting someone else, but I don't think I could have put it better otherwise myself, both then and now. The difference is that now more people agree with Max and with me!

 

[nlogax]

Sorry for just quoting someone else, but I don't think I could have put it better otherwise myself, both then and now. The difference is that now more people agree with Max and with me!

Hastings knows how Boris works (or doesn't!) better than almost anyone, and he absolutely nailed it there.

So many are to blame for Boris being where he is now, the great British tv-watching public included. If it wasn't for his multiple HIGNFY appearances which propelled his career into a more senior direction I don't think we'd be in our current mess. Admittedly it'd be an entirely different sort of mess as the result of some other incompetent numpty, but that's how our political system works now.

 

[37424]

There is going to be a customs border either between Scotland and NI or Scotland and England (if we become independent). As to currency and re-joining the EU, a bad Brexit will damage the value of the pound, so the Euro may become more attractive - especially if a united Ireland is on the cards too.


That would largely depend on the nature of the trading and political relationship between the UK and the EU. If it was (as promised) similar to that which exists between the EU and Norway then it would be difficult to make the case for re-joining. As it now seems inevitable that we will be on significantly worse terms than we previously were (it's pretty clear that we will be outside the customs union), then there will be a case to be made.

I believe the public is in favour of a plan seen all the way through, whatever that plan is. Rather than what seems to be the "plan of the week" that we've been getting so far from Westminster.

But an EU border between England and Scotland would be a significant change, and you wouldn't have the luxury of claiming a special case like the Ireland/NI border, I think the argument between a basic free trade deal and a Customs Union/Single Market trade deal has been lost and wouldn't be a big enough impact to sway voters to a significant degree obviously a No Deal would be a different kettle of fish but would make an rest of UK out/Scotland in even more difficult.

Coming back to point the next 3 months are critical for Boris both in terms of Brexit and Covid and your probably better waiting until January to get a better answer to the original question.

 

[najaB]

But an EU border between England and Scotland would be a significant change...

And a customs border between Scotland and NI is not?

 

[37424]

And a customs border between Scotland and NI is not?

Well I haven't got any figures but I would imagine both trade and travel between England and Scotland is far higher than NI not forgetting of course England/Scotland is a big land border NI isn't unless Boris builds his crazy bridge. Obviously the situation with NI is a difficult fudge with the UK out of the EU and single market.

 

[jfollows]

To come back to the original topic a bit, Boris's most significant failing is his cowardice and in particular his dislike of confrontation. This leads him to be unable to give out bad news in a straightforward way, it means that he over-promises and under-delivers, and that he appoints his cabinets members for their sycophancy rather than for their abilities. Good prime ministers appoint good people to be in their cabinets, knowing that they won't always agree with you but will be prepared to argue a different case, knowing that in the end the prime minister will weigh up the alternatives and make a decision. Boris avoids this in the worst possible way.

So he'll go, and it's indeed telling that nobody (especially Conservative MPs) expects him to fight the next election.

However he's also ensured that his cabinet of little ability doesn't contain a challenger, with the exception of Michael Gove, whom I don't like and don't trust but I think will get the job in the face of little opposition in due course.

 

[37424]

To come back to the original topic a bit, Boris's most significant failing is his cowardice and in particular his dislike of confrontation. This leads him to be unable to give out bad news in a straightforward way, it means that he over-promises and under-delivers, and that he appoints his cabinets members for their sycophancy rather than for their abilities. Good prime ministers appoint good people to be in their cabinets, knowing that they won't always agree with you but will be prepared to argue a different case, knowing that in the end the prime minister will weigh up the alternatives and make a decision. Boris avoids this in the worst possible way.

So he'll go, and it's indeed telling that nobody (especially Conservative MPs) expects him to fight the next election.

However he's also ensured that his cabinet of little ability doesn't contain a challenger, with the exception of Michael Gove, whom I don't like and don't trust but I think will get the job in the face of little opposition in due course.

I don't think Gove is particularly popular amongst most of the electorate bit of a vote loser, I think Sunak is the likely choice but maybe too right wing to win an election, but of course that does depend on who is leading the Labour party and how left wing their polices are.

 

[jfollows]

I don't think Gove is particularly popular amongst most of the electorate bit of a vote loser, I think Sunak is the likely choice but maybe too right wing to win an election, but of course that does depend on who is leading the Labour party and how left wing their polices are.

I think you're right about the electorate, but of course it's a tiny subset of the electorate which gets to choose the party leader, and 'electability' has never been uppermost in their considerations when doing so (Ian Duncan-Smith?).

Personally I don't see anything yet which tells me that Rishi Sunak is up to the job. He might be, but I think that Gove is, it needs a particular kind of ruthless determination which I've not seen in the former so far. Will that matter in due course, I don't know? Perhaps the number of enemies each of them has made will decide who gets through the process, which should favour Sunak to date.

 

[najaB]

Well I haven't got any figures but I would imagine both trade and travel between England and Scotland is far higher than NI...

Of course it is, but trade between Scotland and NI is not insignificant, nor is trade between Scotland and ROI. Both of which are going to be significantly affected by a customs border in the Irish Sea, as is trade between Scotland
and the EU. It is entirely feasible that the Scottish people may decide that a single border with England and Wales is less hassle than two customs borders.

 

[radamfi]

I've been looking at retiring to Ireland but the cost of living is much higher and you have a reduced range of shopping, both online and offline. You can use some British online retailers (at the moment, who knows from January) but shipping times and costs are higher. Being in the UK retailers have a much bigger market. Only bigger countries have a native Amazon. Even the Netherlands have to use Germany or UK Amazon. Would Scotland be like Ireland after independence? This may sounds like a trivial thing, but there are several trivial things that are easier in a big country. Currently, Scotland is my retirement choice.

 

[birchesgreen]

What kind of things do you think you will not be able to get in Ireland?

 

[radamfi]

What kind of things do you think you will not be able to get in Ireland?

I'm not saying you can't get them there, but the choice is reduced and the costs are higher, because the market is smaller.

 

[37424]

I think you're right about the electorate, but of course it's a tiny subset of the electorate which gets to choose the party leader, and 'electability' has never been uppermost in their considerations when doing so (Ian Duncan-Smith?).

Personally I don't see anything yet which tells me that Rishi Sunak is up to the job. He might be, but I think that Gove is, it needs a particular kind of ruthless determination which I've not seen in the former so far. Will that matter in due course, I don't know? Perhaps the number of enemies each of them has made will decide who gets through the process, which should favour Sunak to date.

Well perhaps true when they choose Duncan Smith but I think they did choose Boris because they saw him as an election winner, although a conservative dog as leader would have probably done quite well against Corbyn

 

[radamfi]

Another issue is broadcasting. In Ireland you can get live UK channels, but you can't get BBC iPlayer and probably most other UK catch up TV services, at least without a VPN. You can get RTE, but that's a very low budget organisation compared to the BBC so clearly cannot offer anything like the same range or standard of programming.