England's new three-tier lockdown system

[Bletchleyite]

Why just Croydon? I thought it was the whole of London.

It is.

 

[yorksrob]

Why just Croydon? I thought it was the whole of London.

That Wimpy bar must get rowdy

 

[Chester1]

I think this is akin to trying to push back an incoming tide. We need to accept that people just aren't complying with these sorts of measures. Allow people to meet up in pubs and no matter how "Covid secure" they claim to be people are going to mix, especially where alcohol is involved. Close the pubs and people will simply meet in homes, and even if we decide to make it illegal with the risk of harsh fines there simply aren't the police resources to enforce it, plus it introduces snitching which leaves a long-term negative legacy which we could do without. Even during the last lockdown this mixing was clearly happening, which may well have contributed to it taking quite a time for infection rates to drop down.

Especially now this has been going on for so long, people are going to be people, and there's probably not a lot that can be done about that.

Today the Guardian wrote an article on the "sex ban" i.e. that unless a couple are in a support bubble its illegal to meet together indoors in a home in tiers 2 and 3. At no point did it mention the blindingly obvious... Very few people are going to abstain to avoid breaking the law, especially not for a 0.1% chance of getting a £200 fixed penalty fine that is the legal equivalent of a speeding ticket!

I am not sure if our political and media class are actually that out of touch or whether they are just pretending that most people are following the restrictions!

 

[Richard Scott]

The problem is that they have blood on their hands as a result. Their cack-handedness is literally killing people.

Crikey, if you're going to do such a bad job, you might as well beef up the NHS and unleash the floodgates, as if we think immunity is short then that way it might die out itself! (I don't want this done, but it'd be better than a half-job).

No as much as I dislike the current politicians this is over the top. Whatever they do people will die, sorry but that's how it is. Majority are I'll or have some kind of health condition. Some unfortunate healthy people will die but that happens with many illnesses. You can't blame the politicians for that, whatever they do some will die. May argue back in March they made mistakes but do did many countries.

 

[takno]

Today the Guardian wrote an article on the "sex ban" i.e. that unless a couple are in a support bubble its illegal to meet together indoors in a home in tiers 2 and 3. At no point did it mention the blindingly obvious... Very few people are going to abstain to avoid breaking the law, especially not for a 0.1% chance of getting a £200 fixed penalty fine that is the legal equivalent of a speeding ticket!

I am not sure if our political and media class are actually that out of touch or whether they are just pretending that most people are following the restrictions!

The trouble is that there will be fair few people sticking with it. You might think they're mugs, and I might agree, but they are still having their lives messed up out of a misplaced sense of respect for the law.

In any case, I don't think it's sensible to have piles of legislation on the books which most people casually disregard. We already have loads of drug laws that have less impact on actual behaviour than the health warnings on cigarette labels. Why make the same mess of sex?

 

[Domh245]

Today the Guardian wrote an article on the "sex ban" i.e. that unless a couple are in a support bubble its illegal to meet together indoors in a home in tiers 2 and 3. At no point did it mention the blindingly obvious... Very few people are going to abstain to avoid breaking the law, especially not for a 0.1% chance of getting a £200 fixed penalty fine that is the legal equivalent of a speeding ticket!

Even for those who intend to follow the guidelines, it's only indoors that is illegal. Steer clear of lay-bys is all I shall say!

 

[david1212]

A month or so ago one issue with local restrictions was the inconsistency. Now while Tier 1 & 2 are consistent Tier 3 is not. As more areas are added to Tier 3 the inconsistency will increase further. Then there is Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland doing there own thing. Why could all not virtually sit down and come up consistent restrictions even if it meant another Tier or even two ? To me it seems rather childish of our leaders.

Going back a couple of pages several posts were suggesting just letting people be sensible. That essentially was the situation for July and August except Leicester then from the end of July Manchester and some of the surrounding area. The guideline to keep 2m apart from everyone except members of your own household / bubble remained. Some people did this but significant numbers did not and for several hours time plus over a week or so mingled with members of numerous different households. Had all followed this guideline I wonder how much lower now the daily positive test and hospital admission numbers would have been.

 

[radamfi]

Then there is Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland doing there own thing. Why could all not virtually sit down and come up consistent restrictions even if it meant another Tier or even two ?

Ireland, France, Germany etc. are also doing their own thing. Scotland and Wales are countries in their own right. If they merely duplicate what England is doing, then there is no reason for separate governments. Ireland, France, Germany, Scotland, Wales and England are all European countries with separate governments doing their own thing.

 

[bramling]

The trouble is that there will be fair few people sticking with it. You might think they're mugs, and I might agree, but they are still having their lives messed up out of a misplaced sense of respect for the law.

In any case, I don't think it's sensible to have piles of legislation on the books which most people casually disregard. We already have loads of drug laws that have less impact on actual behaviour than the health warnings on cigarette labels. Why make the same mess of sex?

I’ve heard so many people say “we complied last time round but are not going to do so now”.

 

[Yew]

Today the Guardian wrote an article on the "sex ban" i.e. that unless a couple are in a support bubble its illegal to meet together indoors in a home in tiers 2 and 3. At no point did it mention the blindingly obvious... Very few people are going to abstain to avoid breaking the law, especially not for a 0.1% chance of getting a £200 fixed penalty fine that is the legal equivalent of a speeding ticket!

I am not sure if our political and media class are actually that out of touch or whether they are just pretending that most people are following the restrictions!

I'm sure that's nice for those in established relationships.

 

[Chester1]

I’ve heard so many people say “we complied last time round but are not going to do so now”.

Or worse, people saying they think restrictions should be tougher but who are not keeping to the current restrictions. That just gives the government a false sense of security.

First time round a lot of people were scared and no one really knew what we were dealing with. The NHS wasn't remotely prepared and while more could have been done it is in a much better position with PPE, ventilators etc. This time some under 60s without pre-existing conditions may be scared by media talking about long covid etc but most have realised that they are too low risk for it to be worth putting their life on hold indefinitely. There are also more people who have had it and have no incentive whatsoever to do more than keep within the law (if that) and help to normalise returning to normal behaviours. If you are young(ish) and healthy then aside from keeping away from vulnerable people the rational thing to do is get on with your life.

 

[Freightmaster]

Or worse, people saying they think restrictions should be tougher but who are not keeping to the current restrictions.

Mostly middle aged/older people who blame young 'Covidiots' for spreading the virus indiscriminately,
while blithely breaking the rules themselves on a daily basis because they are being 'careful'

It's a bit like drivers who constantly rant about the number of "idiot drivers" on the road while
being blissfully unaware that they are just as bad!






MARK

 

[Peter Sarf]

Why just Croydon? I thought it was the whole of London.

Sorry, its plenty of places, was being a bit self centred.

On a practical note - I wonder how long befor parts of the SE goes to tier-3.

No as much as I dislike the current politicians this is over the top. Whatever they do people will die, sorry but that's how it is. Majority are I'll or have some kind of health condition. Some unfortunate healthy people will die but that happens with many illnesses. You can't blame the politicians for that, whatever they do some will die. May argue back in March they made mistakes but do did many countries.

The whole point of the three tiers system is to provide a variable response to how likely the Covid-19 is going to bury the NHS in a particular area. The number of severe cases of Covid-19 is not going to vary much unless a vaccine appears. But it will just be spread over a longer time. The goal is to make sure all the severe cases can get access to hospital treatment so less die. BUT also there is a need to have enough hospital capacity left to deal with all the other ailments. There are a lot of outstanding operations for things like cancer. I think there is still a massive backlog even as we go into the part of the year (winter) where the NHS normally gets stretched. If Covid-19 is like almost all other viruses then it is going to run riot through the population from now until March next year. There is a very worrying time ahead even with the three tier system.

A month or so ago one issue with local restrictions was the inconsistency. Now while Tier 1 & 2 are consistent Tier 3 is not. As more areas are added to Tier 3 the inconsistency will increase further. Then there is Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland doing there own thing. Why could all not virtually sit down and come up consistent restrictions even if it meant another Tier or even two ? To me it seems rather childish of our leaders.

.........

I know and agree. But then it would be like expecting the UK to sit down and cooperate with Europe. We all want to be individuals !.

Mostly middle aged/older people who blame young 'Covidiots' for spreading the virus indiscriminately,
while blithely breaking the rules themselves on a daily basis because they are being 'careful'

It's a bit like drivers who constantly rant about the number of "idiot drivers" on the road while
being blissfully unaware that they are just as bad!

MARK

I wonder how true it is but the motoring analogy is definitely true.

One thing I would say is "irresponsible" people of all ages might well believe they wont get Covid-19 bad but some will have accidents and be reliant on the very NHS that we are trying to protect.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

This story highlights just how ridiculous this has all become

Coronavirus: 'Tier one ends at my garden wall'

The street split down the middle by the government's new coronavirus rules.

www.bbc.co.uk

The county boundary runs down the middle of Portland Road, meaning houses on one side have "tier one" restrictions, while the other side is "tier two".
It's caused some amusement among residents, but also much frustration due to the difficulty of living in a community with two sets of rules.

People on the Derbyshire side of the street, currently in tier one, can meet socially in groups of six indoors, while those on the other side are subject to more stringent restrictions - due to the fact Nottinghamshire became tier two this week.

Bev Plumb, landlady of the Jug and Glass Inn, which is in tier two, said she had already had customers contacting her to cancel bookings.
She said the fact people can meet in pubs just a short walk down the road is an issue, and questioned how she would be able to enforce the ban on households mixing.
"People are trying to do the right thing, trying not to break the law, but it does affect our business," she said.
"There shouldn't be a blanket approach for the whole of Nottinghamshire."

One lady comments that she will not see her granddaughter, even though they live on opposite sides of the same street, their homes are in different Tiers.

There’s no way I would comply in that situation

 

[Domh245]

This story highlights just how ridiculous this has all become

Coronavirus: 'Tier one ends at my garden wall'

The street split down the middle by the government's new coronavirus rules.

www.bbc.co.uk

One lady comments that she will not see her granddaughter, even though they live on opposite sides of the same street, their homes are in different Tiers.

There’s no way I would comply in that situation

Frankly anyone deciding that because they're on the wrong side of the street they have to slavishly follow the tier 2 regulations deserves it

 

[Peter Sarf]

This story highlights just how ridiculous this has all become

Coronavirus: 'Tier one ends at my garden wall'

The street split down the middle by the government's new coronavirus rules.

www.bbc.co.uk

One lady comments that she will not see her granddaughter, even though they live on opposite sides of the same street, their homes are in different Tiers.

There’s no way I would comply in that situation

It will come down to :-
Anyone who wants to be cautious will match or exceed the stricter of the two tiers.
Anyone who does not care wont bother.
How the virus does depends on how many people fall into each side of the above.

In generally it is a bit like people rushing out for a last party/drink before a tier kicks in. For me the imminent arrival of a stricter tier means its time to be careful asap.

I don't think enough has been done to help people understand the reasons for the tiers, masks, 2m rule etc etc.

The more interesting side for the media is the unpleasant side effects of the tiers - economic. The mental well being side seems to be taking a back seat btw ?. What we are trying to prevent will only get news worthy again when/if Covid-19 buries the NHS again.

 

[yorksrob]

It will come down to :-
Anyone who wants to be cautious will match or exceed the stricter of the two tiers.
Anyone who does not care wont bother.
How the virus does depends on how many people fall into each side of the above.

In generally it is a bit like people rushing out for a last party/drink before a tier kicks in. For me the imminent arrival of a stricter tier means its time to be careful asap.

I don't think enough has been done to help people understand the reasons for the tiers, masks, 2m rule etc etc.

The more interesting side for the media is the unpleasant side effects of the tiers - economic. The mental well being side seems to be taking a back seat btw ?. What we are trying to prevent will only get news worthy again when/if Covid-19 buries the NHS again.

Or the third option - people will take sensible precautions whilst getting on with their lives, although I realise that there are those for whom anyone not hunkering down in their bunker is irresponsible.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Or the third option - people will take sensible precautions whilst getting on with their lives, although I realise that there are those for whom anyone not hunkering down in their bunker is irresponsible.

Whaaat, a balanced approach .

Actually, without looking too closely, what you are saying appears to be the Swedish approach. No severe lockdown or fancy tiers just enough people being cautiously sensible. I see enough people in shops not wearing masks to wonder. With a bit of care and inconvenience how close to normal life can we get ?. It could be a choice of wear a mask and try to make space or watch the hospitality sector collapse.

 

[Richard Scott]

Whaaat, a balanced approach .

Actually, without looking too closely, what you are saying appears to be the Swedish approach. No severe lockdown or fancy tiers just enough people being cautiously sensible. I see enough people in shops not wearing masks to wonder. With a bit of care and inconvenience how close to normal life can we get ?. It could be a choice of wear a mask and try to make space or watch the hospitality sector collapse.

Sensible approach without masks, these do not seem to be working. Numbers have not dropped since they were made mandatory.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Sensible approach without masks, these do not seem to be working. Numbers have not dropped since they were made mandatory.

They cannot be proven to have made a difference, yet the government are, in effect, implying that the virus spreads more readily in places where the very measure designed to slow the spread (wearing face-coverings) is actually being adhered to !!!
We need a ‘Sparticus’ movement, where people just state ‘I’m exempt’.

 

[Richard Scott]

They cannot be proven to have made a difference, yet the government are, in effect, implying that the virus spreads more readily in places where the very measure designed to slow the spread (wearing face-coverings) is actually being adhered to !!!
We need a ‘Sparticus’ movement, where people just state ‘I’m exempt’.

Agree but seems too many are of the thinking that masks are our saviours especially when politicians like Sturgeon seem to want to mandate them everywhere. People have been right royally led astray with the facts here, possibly as politicians weren't sure what they were talking about in the first place but, as usual, had to be seen to be doing something. Afraid I feel this is true of latest three tier system, where's the science/evidence?

 

[greyman42]

Why are some people shouting for the "circuit breaker" before the three tier system has had a chance to prove its effectiveness. Are they worried that it might work and so destroy their dreams of another national lockdown?

 

[317 forever]

It does seem to me that this three tier system is just the Government playing s real life video game. Put this area into Tier 2, then this into 3, when is this nonsense going to end. We've tried lockdown and restrictions, the virus doesn't go away. Original aim was to allow NHS to cope, that doesn't seem to be the aim now.

Furthermore, given that R is above 1 in all areas of England, it is only a matter of time before Tier 1 places have numbers matching current Tier 2 or even Tier 3 places.

 

[Richard Scott]

Furthermore, given that R is above 1 in all areas of England, it is only a matter of time before Tier 1 places have numbers matching current Tier 2 or even Tier 3 places.

In all areas? I've not looked at numbers but can't believe everywhere it's above 1. Having said that in areas where there's low infections R is pretty meaningless so potentially could be above 1 currently. Afraid too much emphasis placed on R value, bit of a case of so what if amongst loads of students, really is hospital admissions we should be worrying about.

 

[317 forever]

As we all know, Lancashire has agreed a government settlement to go to Tier 3 but Greater Manchester has not. Manchester has a different demographic and economy, partly because several Manchester towns run into eachother while most Lancashire towns are separated by rural areas. More hospitality and tourism could be affected in Manchester. I would not be surprised if the settlement offered to Manchester failed to reflect this.

I shall go further. Blackpool Council leader Lynn Williams is still inviting people to travel there and visit subject to us behaving safely.

Lancashire Tier 3 rules for visiting Blackpool, holidays and more

Can I still visit Blackpool and other parts of Lancashire under the Tier 3 lockdown, from inside or outside the county? - Lancashire's lockdown travel rules explained

www.lancs.live

From the above link I am quoting the following:-

"But in a press conference this afternoon, Councillor Lynn Williams, leader of Blackpool Council, said there is no "mandatory ban on travel" in and out of Lancashire.

In regards to Blackpool, Coun Williams said the seaside resort remains open - but "safely" so.

"Anyone in Lancashire can travel countywide," Coun Williams said.

"And if coming from out the area it is advisory not to."

When pressed on people visiting Blackpool, Coun Williams said there are no travel restrictions and that the guidance is "only advisory".

She said: "Our key resorts, the Pleasure Beach for example, will remain open. Our businesses have done an awful lot of work to make sure they are Covid-safe.

"Blackpool remains safely open. Not bars and pubs [that don't serve food], but in terms of everything else. People are able to come but will have to ensure that they abide by the measures our public health colleagues have stated and other restrictions, and travel within their own family, household unit."

Dr Sakthi Karunanithi, director of public health for Lancashire County Council, said the travel rules from Government is "guidance", rather than law."

 

[Peter Sarf]

In all areas? I've not looked at numbers but can't believe everywhere it's above 1. Having said that in areas where there's low infections R is pretty meaningless so potentially could be above 1 currently. Afraid too much emphasis placed on R value, bit of a case of so what if amongst loads of students, really is hospital admissions we should be worrying about.

Yes the number of hospital admissions does seem a good barometer of how Covid-19 is doing in each area (loose term probably best described as a hospitals catchment area). Even if it is not a good barometer it does tell us how stuffed the NHS is getting which is the real important concern. Trouble is any resulting action like stepping up a tier is too late to prevent a hospital being overrun.

The next best thing to measure is looking at number of positive test results as that is about 10 days ahead of the brown stuff hitting the NHS fan. The number of positive tests does have to be interpreted a bit BUT the big indicator is if you see a rise in positive results over one week then you know Covid-19 is getting the upper hand. The speed at which the positive results has risen has caused the alarm bells to ring in certain areas. I reckon they factored out students turning up as the three tier system seems to have come along after that effect but I am not sure. Remember also that comparing positive test results now to last March-May is useless as so few tests were done then.

I could ignore all the stats available and say that Covid-19 is on the up because we are heading into winter. Its common sense anyway. That could mean that by Christmas things will be worse than they were in the first peak March-May !. That is probably the real reason the three tier system was invented. It could also mean that all the precautions made very little difference because it was the good weather that slowed the spread of Covid-19. But I think the precautions had some effect - if not then we are truly stuffed. Tier-9 anybody ?.

 

[43066]

I’ve heard so many people say “we complied last time round but are not going to do so now”.

That’s pretty much what everyone in my social circle has agreed, even those who strictly observed the first lockdown. People have quite simply lost faith in the government and have stopped listening.

Whilever pubs and restaurants remain open I fully intend to continue making the most of them! And yes, that is going to involve socialising indoors with people outside my household.

 

[yorksrob]

Whaaat, a balanced approach .

Actually, without looking too closely, what you are saying appears to be the Swedish approach. No severe lockdown or fancy tiers just enough people being cautiously sensible. I see enough people in shops not wearing masks to wonder. With a bit of care and inconvenience how close to normal life can we get ?. It could be a choice of wear a mask and try to make space or watch the hospitality sector collapse.

I've been using the hospitality sector a lot and everyone has been wearing masks and making space.

 

[philosopher]

It will come down to :-
The more interesting side for the media is the unpleasant side effects of the tiers - economic. The mental well being side seems to be taking a back seat btw ?. What we are trying to prevent will only get news worthy again when/if Covid-19 buries the NHS again.

What makes me rather cynical about the whole lockdown approach is that mental well being side effects have largely been ignored. This I think is why so many people are flouting the rules as they need to protect their mental well being. In England at least the government’s approach seems to be about keeping as much open, even if it is probably not viable in exchange for ever stricter social gathering restrictions. The Scottish government are a bit better in this respect as they do seem to make a bit more of an effort in considering mental well being.

From a mental well being perspective what I would like the government to do for all three tiers:
1) Allow two households to meet-up indoors. This will allow people to maintain relationships over the winter. Meeting up outdoors in winter is always going to be a struggle.
2) Exempt those living alone and in house / flat shares from the work from home advice. Public sector bodies should be told to open up their offices to these individuals and private sector companies encouraged to do the same.

If the lockdown approach is to continue then to allow the two changes mentioned above it may be that in exchange licensed pubs and restaurants have to close. This may not be as bad as it seems as in tier two areas the current social restrictions probably means they are not viable anyway. At least if they forced to close they can claim some support from the government.

 

[takno]

What makes me rather cynical about the whole lockdown approach is that mental well being side effects have largely been ignored. This I think is why so many people are flouting the rules as they need to protect their mental well being. In England at least the government’s approach seems to be about keeping as much open, even if it is probably not viable in exchange for ever stricter social gathering restrictions. The Scottish government are a bit better in this respect as they do seem to make a bit more of an effort in considering mental well being.

From a mental well being perspective what I would like the government to do for all three tiers:
1) Allow two households to meet-up indoors. This will allow people to maintain relationships over the winter. Meeting up outdoors in winter is always going to be a struggle.
2) Exempt those living alone and in house / flat shares from the work from home advice. Public sector bodies should be told to open up their offices to these individuals and private sector companies encouraged to do the same.

If the lockdown approach is to continue then to allow the two changes mentioned above it may be that in exchange licensed pubs and restaurants have to close. This may not be as bad as it seems as in tier two areas the current social restrictions probably means they are not viable anyway. At least if they forced to close they can claim some support from the government.

In what sense has the Scottish government done better? Sturgeon periodically does a hand-wavy grimace thing whenever mental health gets mentioned before making it perfectly clear that while she of course cares deeply about the issue, it's absolutely secondary to her bizarre elimination fantasy and people will just have to suck it up for the moment. The rules have prevented any households meeting up in private residences for a while here, while the stay-at-home advice has been much more heavily-messaged throughout.