New 4-tier system for England

[Bantamzen]

If that global figure is accurate there's two things of note:

- if that's the figure then we'd be looking at a total number of deaths (assuming 100% are infected) of 133,000 to 200,000, so we've had between 1/3 and 1/2 of the total deaths we could expect (the USA has similar values). However once we get to about 2/3 of the deaths then the infection rate would start to fall dramatically. The problem is that estimates have the number of likely infections at less than 1/3.

- that's global average the UK average could be higher than this due to having a greater percentage of older people.

As I say that is currently the global rate, keeping in mind that different countries have different ways to measure infections vs mortalities, so its not clear cut yet. However we are ahead of the curve in terms of vaccinations and indeed treatments having been at the front of development of new treatments, so that figure could be very different for us. Its not a fixed point.

Also keep in mind that the key driver was, and still should be the effect on the NHS. Some people will die, just as some people will die from the myriad of other illness and events that keep us very mortal. As the vaccinations increase, so the fixation of one set of data or another should be reduced as the effects the the health service decrease.

 

[philosopher]

I don't think anyone is really "hoping" for a lockdown - I am sure we can all agree they are incredibly miserable and it certainly isn't fair to say someone is being a troll for having a different point of view on lockdowns even if it is the contrarian position on this forum.

It seems obvious that some places are going to need to move tiers very quickly - the rates in T2 in the area around T4 are growing very quickly

I absolutely hate where we are right now and it isn't just those opposed to restrictions who are struggling mentally but I am really struggling to see the alternatives right now - What would your plan be to get through the rest of Winter until we can get 10 - 15 million vaccinated? And just sticking your fingers in your ears and hoping it goes away isn't an option.

Boris can in effect implement a national lockdown by the back door, thus avoiding parliamentary scrutiny by putting everywhere except perhaps Cornwall and the Isle of Wight into Tier 4.

 

[DustyBin]

I suppose we don't know how many infections/deaths there'd be if we just went back to normal in theNew Year (a new normal though with odd restrictions here and there - but ones we could by and large tolerate). There would certainly be far fewer suicides - suicides are an issue even non COVID especially around Christmas time.

That’s the big unknown and, frustratingly, not open for discussion.

This is an interesting article discussing the potential dangers of what we are doing:

Covid’s metamorphosis: has lockdown made the virus more deadly?

‘Nothing makes sense in biology, except in the light of evolution,’ the splendidly named biologist Theodosius Dobzhansky wrote in 1973. It’s a good rule of thumb. Despite near-miraculous advances in medical science we remain biological beings, subject to biological laws. None is more central to...

www.spectator.co.uk

‘Nothing makes sense in biology, except in the light of evolution,’ the splendidly named biologist Theodosius Dobzhansky wrote in 1973. It’s a good rule of thumb. Despite near-miraculous advances in medical science we remain biological beings, subject to biological laws. None is more central to our understanding of disease than evolution. Yet this theory remains poorly understood and poorly utilised in medicine. And an evolutionary perspective raises important questions about the drastic action we have been taking to confront Covid-19.

Meanwhile, Germany is having a torrid time....

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

in.reuters.com

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany reported a record daily coronavirus death toll of 962 on Wednesday, a week after the start of a hard lockdown that has forced most stores as well as hair salons and other services to close.

The total death toll now stands at 27,968, data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases showed.

The previous daily death toll record was 952, reported on Dec. 16, the day the lockdown came into effect.

 

[jtuk]

Hopefully all of England gets put into lockdown(and I mean a proper lockdown like March) by Boxing day although it really should be with immediate effect regardless of Xmas, cases are out of control, signs the North West is starting to rise again and I do feel other parts could easily start to rise again. The numbers usually peak on a Wednesday/Thursday so we could hit over 40,000 cases by then.

High chance the death rate will start to rise also given the lag effect. Horrible situation and I'm having my doubts about how well this vaccine will be rolled out so I can't see things getting back to normal by Easter either.

Translation: Paul wants to murder the poor and destroy the economy by implementing a strategy that has worked wonderfully well everywhere it has been used

 

[Smidster]

I suppose we don't know how many infections/deaths there'd be if we just went back to normal in theNew Year (a new normal though with odd restrictions here and there - but ones we could by and large tolerate). There would certainly be far fewer suicides - suicides are an issue even non COVID especially around Christmas time.

Absolutely Mental Health is something we need to take much more seriously (and not just during a pandemic) but what we are seeing from Covid is on a different scale to those who commit suicide - though of course it is the biggest killer for males under 45.

Last year the number of suicides in England & Wales was 5,700 and right now the "excess death" count due to Covid is over 60,000. ONS stats also do not show any increase in suicides so far in 2020 though we don't know what will happen when the economic situation becomes clearer.

Not trying to "compare disease" but a little context is always good.

 

[Darandio]

I suppose we don't know how many infections/deaths there'd be if we just went back to normal in theNew Year (a new normal though with odd restrictions here and there - but ones we could by and large tolerate). There would certainly be far fewer suicides - suicides are an issue even non COVID especially around Christmas time.

Spring is noted to be the worst time for suicides and this time around that may well coincide with the latter end of a lengthy lockdown, that is particularly worrying.

 

[bramling]

I had a similar experience going to Southport on the train yesterday from Wigan.

When I got to the barriers at Southport, Merseyside Police had two officers stopping everyone off the train and they sent the two people on front of me back on the train.

I challenged the officer and explained it was guidance and not law. He eventually, after me explaining that 'should avoid' doesn't equate to 'must not', said that it might not be law but to think of the moral impact of spreading the virus from tier 3 to 2. I explained that his job was to uphold the law, not morals.

He let me carry on with my day

Very well done for doing this. It does seem we’re sliding towards a police state.

 

[DB]

Very well done for doing this. It does seem we’re sliding towards a police state.

Indeed, and the police clearly know that they are exceeding their authority but are doing it anyway because most people won't be sufficiently clued up to challenge them.

 

[duncanp]

Very well done for doing this. It does seem we’re sliding towards a police state.

Having had a look at the Tier 4 regulations (as opposed to the so called "guidance") there is nothing which explicitly prohibits someone living in a Tier 4 area from leaving the area in which they live for a purpose permitted under the legislation.

ie. You can leave your house in Tier 4 and travel to a neighbouring area in a lower tier for outoor exercise, or for shopping.

Whether you should leave your local area for a permitted purpose is a matter for debate.

It would be difficult, for example, to argue that someone living in Braintree (Essex) needs to travel to Hyde Park in Central London for outdoor exercise, although in doing so they would not be leaving a Tier 4 area.

 

[philosopher]

On BBC news this morning they were saying the current tier system is insufficient given this new strain and implying that there will be a higher tier 5.

 

[Yew]

On Sunday, a friend of my fathers drove from Euxton (Lancashire) to Southport (Merseyside) to drop off presents.
He was stopped on the Formby bypass by Merseyside Police and given 2 hours to drop off the presents and report to Chorley Police Station to prove that he had returned within the 2 hours or he would get a Fixed Penalty Notice.
(He accomplished this).

Is that anywhere in the rules?

 

[yorkie]

Is that anywhere in the rules?

No ; the police do as they please now.

 

[Envy123]

On BBC news this morning they were saying the current tier system is insufficient given this new strain and implying that there will be a higher tier 5.

What can be in a tier 5? I don't see how further restrictions would even work, considering essential workers in London could very well live outside London and the South East.

 

[6862]

What can be in a tier 5? I don't see how further restrictions would even work, considering essential workers in London could very well live outside London and the South East.

It might be a total ban on any interactions outside your household (i.e. a ban on meeting one person outdoors). Such a measure would be a powerful tool to induce the fear and despair the government so greatly want the population to feel.

 

[yorkie]

It could mean closing schools

If we were in some even more draconian country like Spain it would also mean wearing a mask at all times except in the home with no exceptions; it would also mean all children under 16 are confined to their homes with no exceptions. Our clueless rulers who listen to discredited and hysterical 'scientists' like the disgraced Professor, are pretty bonkers but they are not quite that bonkers! Not much comfort to know some countries are even crazier than we are though....

 

[Envy123]

It might be a total ban on any interactions outside your household (i.e. a ban on meeting one person outdoors). Such a measure would be a powerful tool to induce the fear and despair the government so greatly want the population to feel.

I fear this means not even being able to see suppliers and actually do work on special orders.

Well, if the government would cover my whole rent until March-May-whathaveyou, I can stay at home, no problem.

 

[Yew]

It could mean closing schools

It seems to be being suggested in the media, and if there's anything we know, is that Boris succumbs to media pressure...

Well, if the government would cover my whole rent until March-May-whathaveyou, I can stay at home, no problem.

Indeed, this situation where everything (apart from work) is banned is in no way sustainable from a social perspective.

 

[bramling]

It could mean closing schools

If we were in some even more draconian country like Spain it would also mean wearing a mask at all times except in the home with no exceptions; it would also mean all children under 16 are confined to their homes with no exceptions. Our bonkers 'scientists' like the disgraced Professor, and clueless rulers, are utterly bonkers but they are not quite THAT bonkers! Not much comfort to know some countries are even crazier than we are though....

Given how much focus there’s been from Boris and Gavin about keeping schools open, it’s probably a fairly safe bet this means they will be closed til Easter!

Other possibilities
* key workers only on transport (if attendance continues the way it’s going then service cuts and demand management is quite likely - my place seems to be back to having all the shielding people at home, and we have a number of confirmed Covid outbreaks in business-critical functions).
* masks outside - they’d better not even think about this one!
* more stringent restrictions on numbers inside essential shops (let’s all queue outside in the rain!)
* distance limits on how far one can travel to partake in exercise
* closing down some more workplaces

2 and 4 on the above list are difficult to enforce as they simply don’t have the resources, nor I suspect the police buy-in (notwithstanding some exceptions like North Yorkshire and West Mercia!).

My money’s on schools.

 

[Mag_seven]

On Sunday, a friend of my fathers drove from Euxton (Lancashire) to Southport (Merseyside) to drop off presents.
He was stopped on the Formby bypass by Merseyside Police and given 2 hours to drop off the presents and report to Chorley Police Station to prove that he had returned within the 2 hours or he would get a Fixed Penalty Notice.
(He accomplished this).

Is that anywhere in the rules?

Euxton is in Tier 3 and Southport in Tier 2 so the Tier 3 rules would have applied to the friend of @AntoniC's father specifically:

No person living in the Tier 3 area may participate in a gathering outside that area which—

(a)takes place outdoors in a place which satisfies the conditions in sub-paragraph (4) and consists of more than six people, or

(b)takes place in any other outdoor place and consists of two or more people.

(4) A place satisfies the conditions in this sub-paragraph if it is a public outdoor place other than a fairground or a funfair and—

(a)no payment is required by any member of the public to access that place, or

(b)the place falls within one of the following categories—

(i)outdoor sportsgrounds or sports facilities;

(ii)botanical gardens;

(iii)gardens or grounds of a castle, stately home, historic house or other heritage site.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers) (England) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk)

If we regard the act of delivering presents as a "gathering" then provided they delivered the presents in a public outdoor space and there were no more than 6 present at the "present delivering" then its not against the rules. Also the "present delivery" may take place indoors if the household being visited was a support bubble.

General exceptions in relation to gatherings​

4.—(1) These are the exceptions referred to in paragraphs 1, 2 and 3(5)(c).

Exception 1: same or linked households​

(2) Exception 1 is that all the people in the gathering—

(a)are members of the same household (or are treated as members of the same household in accordance with these Regulations), or

(b)are members of two households which are linked households in relation to each other.

 

[nedchester]

Euxton is in Tier 3 and Southport in Tier 2 so the Tier 3 rules would have applied to the friend of @AntoniC's father specifically:





The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers) (England) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk)

If we regard the act of delivering presents as a "gathering" then provided they delivered the presents in a public outdoor space and there were no more than 6 present at the "present delivering" then its not against the rules. Also the "present delivery" may take place indoors if the household being visited was a support bubble.

So basically no law was broken and there was no need for the police to be involved

 

[yorkie]

So basically no law was broken and there was no need for the police to be involved

In theory, yes, but the police have been found to be no longer enforcing the law; they enforce their own flawed interpretation of guidance, and basically whatever else they want. This is just the latest of many examples.

 

[DB]

So basically no law was broken and there was no need for the police to be involved

And what would they have done if he had failed to report to their police station? Probably nothing as they must know that this demand was itself completely unjustified and if they tried to take any further action they would be on extremely dodgy ground.

 

[island]

It could mean closing schools

If we were in some even more draconian country like Spain it would also mean wearing a mask at all times except in the home with no exceptions; it would also mean all children under 16 are confined to their homes with no exceptions. Our clueless rulers who listen to discredited and hysterical 'scientists' like the disgraced Professor, are pretty bonkers but they are not quite that bonkers! Not much comfort to know some countries are even crazier than we are though....

Schools are already required to close under tier 4, although this is probably due to an error of drafting in the regulations.

https://twitter.com/adamwagner1/status/1341717402908823557?s=21

 

[nedchester]

And what would they have done if he had failed to report to their police station? Probably nothing as they must know that this demand was itself completely unjustified and if they tried to take any further action they would be on extremely dodgy ground.

That was my thought on the matter. I wouldn't have gone back to report to the police station nor would I have told them what I was doing.

 

[Ianno87]

It could mean closing schools

I'll admit to having a sleepless night the other night dreading my 4 year old not being able to go back to school in January, from seeing how much he's developed since September. It is clearly far, far better for him at school than stuck in the house all day.

 

[DB]

Schools are already required to close under tier 4, although this is probably due to an error of drafting in the regulations.

https://twitter.com/adamwagner1/status/1341717402908823557?s=21

How do they keep making these glaring cock-ups?

Given that the various possible scenarios are not difficult to predict, any half-competent government would have the legislation drafted and checked for all reasonably likely eventualities, then if they did need to use it they would have it ready rather than cobbling it together at the last minutes and making stupid mistakes,

That was my thought on the matter. I wouldn't have gone back to report to the police station nor would I have told them what I was doing.

Or if someone wanted to be awkward, they could attend the police station and ask to speak to a senior officer who could explain under what law the demand to attend the police station had been made...

 

[Cdd89]

Not much comfort to know some countries are even crazier than we are though....

In Yucatan, Mexico, where I have relocated to for the time being to spend time with family, masks are required everywhere when not in your home. Yes; even if you’re outdoors 50 metres from the nearest person. Yes; even if you’re in your car driving alone with the windows up. And yes; it is actively enforced. And no; I don’t think there are any exemptions.

They also (for a long time) implemented a total ban on any sale of alcohol anywhere.

That said, there are very few other restrictions, and no new lockdowns at all since the one in March.

 

[yorksrob]

There was a discussion on the radio earlier saying that there is an indication that the majority of the spread of the recent variant strain is amongst children. As schools are closed for 2 weeks over Christmas that should have an effect on slowing the spread but there are suggestions on the front page of today’s Telegraph that schools in tier 4 areas may delay reopening for the new term until late January.

I suppose that at least that might mean that the new strain isn't as resistant to the measure's we've been taking already as thought.

In Yucatan, Mexico, where I have relocated to for the time being to spend time with family, masks are required everywhere when not in your home. Yes; even if you’re outdoors 50 metres from the nearest person. Yes; even if you’re in your car driving alone with the windows up. And yes; it is actively enforced.

They also (for a long time) implemented a total ban on any sale of alcohol anywhere.

That said, there are very few other restrictions, and no new lockdowns at all since the one in March.

Crikey, I've been to the region and its on the warm side even without a face covering !

 

[UP13]

I'll admit to having a sleepless night the other night dreading my 4 year old not being able to go back to school in January, from seeing how much he's developed since September. It is clearly far, far better for him at school than stuck in the house all day.

My daughter was in reception for the first lockdown. She is shy and struggles to socialise and was finally starting to get in a good place and then lockdown. She went backwards. My wife and I are teachers so we could do the academic stuff at home but not the social stuff which is what she really needed.

My wife refused to allow her back when schools did reopen in June and I managed to convince her to let her go back two weeks before the end. Heartbreaking to see friendship circles form and cliques emerge with my daughter left out.

Not taking away from the significance of the virus but she really did lose out during lockdown. Her younger brother on the other hand did really well during lockdown as he finally got to spend a lot of time with his mum and dad and I managed to teach him phonics etc. Our 15 year old son was OK - yes he was at home but then again he didn't have the distractions he would at school.

 

[trainophile]

Of course, Twitter contributors are always truthful in what they report....with a notable contributor living in the White House...

One thread, several (British) people, sharing their personal experiences.