What people say in public and what they do are often very different. I've recently watched a film about the Ufton Nervet derailment. It mentions that Finland put seatbelts in three carriages to see how much they were used. 70% of people think that seatbelts are a good idea but only 1% bothered to use them.No it won't.
The public love the restrictions and want them to continue.
I keep asking - why on earth would the government want to maintain restrictions? What would be the benefit of paying out furlough costs and restricting income for the public purse ad infinitum? It's a daft concept.
Wasn't that when the new varient nonsense started? Hands up if you know anyone that has had Covid twice? By which I mean actually felt ill twice not just had two positive test results.Up until October, I actually think Johnson was doing alright, in that he did genuinely seemed to be trying to find a good balance between Covid-19 restrictions and allowing people and the economy to operate somewhat normally. He was clearly listening to what the scientific advisors said, but he was not slavishly following what they saying.
Since November he has essentially played scant regard to non Covid considerations. He seems to be following only what the scientific advisors say and ignoring everything else.
So the solution is: don't get tested. Zero positive tests, problem goes awayWorth noting that our testing is on a different scale to many other countries. For example Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are often held up as examples as how to handle Covid.
Taiwan has done 374k tests in total since the start. We do that in ~12 hours.
South Korea has cumulatively done 6.3 million tests. We are cumulatively on 80 million tests.
Japan was on Jan 8th at a total of 5.3 million tests. We were cumulatively on 57 million tests on the same day.
It seems, the more you look, the more you find.
Does there have to be a reason? They are in total command of the lives of the entire population and they want to keep it that way! Its the same reason for any authoritarian regime keeping hold of power - simply because they like having power and want to keep it!
If the plan which has been leaked to the Daily Mail this morning is anything to go by, hospitality will reopen in early May, with rules broadly similar to the old Tier 2. Then in June the rules will be relaxed so that they are like the old Tier 1. Then in July the rules will be relaxed further so that there are very few restrictions, if any, still remaining in place.
The effect on the hospitality industry will depend to a large extent on whether the public has any confidence that the timetable announced by the government is going to be stuck to. In other words, if they believe that pubs, restaurants and other venues will be open from late June/early July with few restrictions, then you will see an increase in advance bookings, which will increase business confidence.
I do think that the government must stick to whatever timetable they announce next week, regardless of the inevitable onslaught of doom laden forecasts from SAGE scientists and the pro lockdown brigade in general.
Also, I can't help but think that the dates announced next week will give Boris Johnson some leeway to bring the reopening dates forward if the various statistics are better than expected. He may say that the dates in the roadmap are the earliest that this or that can happen, but he is not legally obliged to stick to them.
The BBC are now reporting that "researchers" want the Government to add the following symptoms as those that should trigger a Covid test.
I can't help but wonder if this is a deliberate attempt to keep cases high. Get more people taking tests = more postivies results (even if false positive) = more reason to keep restrictions going.
- Fatigue
- Headache
- Sore throat
- Diarrhea
I mean the above along with the existing symptoms practically means that if you are not feeling 100% then you must have Covid.
No, but we're getting there.Again, this thinking is daft. We aren't China.
Again, this thinking is daft. We aren't China.
Word I am getting around friends is more and more companies are realising some of their staff do sweet **** all at home. Varies widely between companies but certainly companies don't seem as collectively keen on WFH as they were in the summer.
We are not China because the public would not countenance the imposition of these measures.Again, this thinking is daft. We aren't China.
What’s peoples thoughts on 1,000 cases a day before lockdown ends? How will that work when they are wanting to test everybody?
Yes agreed. Fortunately we only have a few days to go until things become genuinely clearer...Seems to me that a lot of these leaks coming out are either different factions of cabinet fighting it out in their favoured papers or the other usual suspect: float policies through the morning papers to see what causes a backlash....
Will be interesting to see of the furlough scheme is extended in any way on the 22nd, Boris as you would expect dodged the question last week at PMQ
......
By the end of April if many restrictions are still in place but deaths and hospital admissions are very low, which is likely going by current trajectories and the vaccine rollout could exceed expectations and have groups 5-9 with a first dose and 1-4 getting second doses if supply is maintained, independent candidates and anyone standing on an anti-restrictions platform can gain plenty of traction.
The vaccination programme will not exceed expectations.
We are very unlikely to even make 2 million doses this week.
Right on cue - I've just seen yesterday's figures and they indicate we're probably still on course to do 2 million this week.The vaccination programme will not exceed expectations.
We are very unlikely to even make 2 million doses this week.
315,797 additional vaccine doses registered in England yesterday (312,669 1st doses, 3,128 2nd doses)
32,070 in Scotland (1st doses only)
17,161 in Wales
It's certainly meeting expectations that are already very high: 30% of the adult population now has at least one dose and maybe influencing the plummeting death statistics and to a slightly lesser degree hospital admissions. Expectations won't just be about how many we vaccinate at a given speed, but the effects in the wider population, so from the 8 March the key Covid stats will be very interesting/insightful.The vaccination programme will not exceed expectations.
We are very unlikely to even make 2 million doses this week.
It appears I dropped a digit on the calc when I did - I had about ~215k in EnglandRight on cue - I've just seen yesterday's figures and they indicate we're probably still on course to do 2 million this week.
35B said:Strange how other countries manage very low rates with all those false positives.
Not only that, but performing such a high number of tests day in, day out as we do in this countryWorth noting that our testing is on a different scale to many other countries. For example Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are often held up as examples as how to handle Covid.
Taiwan has done 374k tests in total since the start. We do that in ~12 hours.
South Korea has cumulatively done 6.3 million tests. We are cumulatively on 80 million tests.
Japan was on Jan 8th at a total of 5.3 million tests. We were cumulatively on 57 million tests on the same day.
It seems, the more you look, the more you find.
I agree that this is the UK not China.. But who said we could never go down a similar road to China? What makes us so special in the West that we could never end up being led by an evil authoritarian regime? To think we are somehow so enlightened or progressive that this would never happen to us is arrogance in the extreme. Just because we have been fortunate to live in a country that has been free and democratic for centuries, doesn't mean that things won't change. I believe things are already changing for the worse. We're entering a dark era, along with much of the rest of Western Europe.
The UK is fairly unusual in that it has neither had a particularly authoritarian regime, nor been occupied by one, for many centuries. I think there is a strong element of exceptionalism - similar to what is often seen in the USA - in the idea that 'it couldn't happen here'. When one considers the enlightened societies where it *has* happened - within living memory - there are, unfortunately, no real grounds for that belief.
'The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance' (to give the correct quote, rather than the more usual and inaccurate version). I think we've forgotten how to be vigilant.
I don't think parliament have either?It should be remembered that we haven't yet had the chance to vote on the current authoritarian restrictions. If they were still in place by the time of the next general election, I would have expected an anti-authoritarian movement to have emerged.
Have to admit I'm missing what the issue is in that case - could you elaborate? I personally think he'll be up for fighting the next election.
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The UK is fairly unusual in that it has neither had a particularly authoritarian regime, nor been occupied by one, for many centuries. I think there is a strong element of exceptionalism - similar to what is often seen in the USA - in the idea that 'it couldn't happen here'. When one considers the enlightened societies where it *has* happened - within living memory - there are, unfortunately, no real grounds for that belief.
'The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance' (to give the correct quote, rather than the more usual and inaccurate version). I think we've forgotten how to be vigilant.
Indeed, even in Ancient Rome, the emergency powers required a new 'Dictator' every 6 months, to prevent the consolidation of power.I don't think parliament have either?
I mean things like masks and social distancing came in before Boris even agreed to let parliament vote on stuff retrospectively.
That means there is nothing in law about when it will end, what conditions would need to be met and so on. That's the really big problem here. If it was debated I would expect these questions to have been asked. As it was rushed through as an "emergency" they weren't, so there was no debate as to effectiveness, how long it might be required for an so on. I don't know if this stuff will come up when these emergency powers are due expire or whether all the laws made when they were in place now continue to exist, despite never having been debated in parliament.
I'm trying to think of any such regime that has come about as the programme of a government which has been led by someone whose whole career has been libertarian, and failing.Very well put. I fear that it is already too late for vigilance though. Many authoritarian regimes were established by democratic means initially and for the first few years of their reign appeared on the whole to be fairly harmless. I'm thinking of one in particular (you can probably guess, but there are many others), not drawing a comparison in terms of severity or level of evil, but rather making the point that evil regimes can arise from apparently innocuous beginings.
I don't think parliament have either?
I mean things like masks and social distancing came in before Boris even agreed to let parliament vote on stuff retrospectively.
That means there is nothing in law about when it will end, what conditions would need to be met and so on. That's the really big problem here. If it was debated I would expect these questions to have been asked. As it was rushed through as an "emergency" they weren't, so there was no debate as to effectiveness, how long it might be required for an so on. I don't know if this stuff will come up when these emergency powers are due expire or whether all the laws made when they were in place now continue to exist, despite never having been debated in parliament.