22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Nicholas Lewis]

I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the measures that is a marker for when a certain group of restrictions is eased is the number of people immunised (first dose and/or second dose). Herd immunity, and therefore protection for the most vulnerable who are unable to have a vaccine, will rely on high levels of vaccine uptake. That is happening now, but could potentially wane as the programme moves to the younger, less vulnerable sections of society. He could, for example, say that hospitality won’t be allowed to open until (say) 30 million people have had both doses. “Jabs for Pubs” for example.

That would be another deviation from the vaccination mission which was at the outset to reduce to mortality rates and relieve pressure on the NHS by administering 1st dose to cohorts 1-4. They've achieved that although its difficult to tell still whether that's down to NPI or the vaccine. The problem is the only outcome they mentioned from this campaign was it would reduce deaths by 88% in that group at what point wasn't stated conveniently and the data certainly isn't underpinning it yet.

Anyhow all i want next week is a restatement of what there goal is here ie is it zero covid or some level of tolerance that is deemed to be containable by the NHS. Each level of relaxation needs to set out what impact it brings on R number, case levels etc and what the associated thresholds that need to be satisfied and for how long before we can move to the next level ie cases below x for x days et al.

Im not interested in dates on Monday not even speculation for what might be I want it managed dynamically on a daily basis not some fixed interval period. People will say business can't operate like that well they will just have to on this occasion this is a one off situation and as long we are headed to better times then then they will have the certainty to plan for that.

 

[Bald Rick]

That would be another deviation from the vaccination mission which was at the outset to reduce to mortality rates and relieve pressure on the NHS by administering 1st dose to cohorts 1-4

Strictly speaking, that was the first priority of the vaccination programme, not the only priority. In any event I would suggest that achieving herd immunity to protect the most vulnerable (ie those unable to have a vaccine) is simply another way of reducing mortality.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Strictly speaking, that was the first priority of the vaccination programme, not the only priority. In any event I would suggest that achieving herd immunity to protect the most vulnerable (ie those unable to have a vaccine) is simply another way of reducing mortality.

Accepted but it was paraded as a way of liberating us from these restrictions and maybe that was just another example of them getting over enthusiastic initially but too many elderly people I know have willing engaged with the programme as they saw it as a way of getting back to normality. The risk with mission creep and no benefits accruing in terms of relaxation is the lower age groups may not be so willing to turn up and then we won't achieve the level of penetration thats needed.

 

[DorkingMain]

Main points of interest for me:

- Being able to go to pubs / restaurants
- Being able to go on holiday within the UK
- Being allowed to visit friends in their homes (Rule of 6 etc)

While the situation last summer was by no means perfect, it felt like a significant return to normality for me. I don't really go to large events very often, though I am sympathetic to the damage done by social distancing. And wearing a mask is not a particular bother to me anymore - I wear it all the time at work and I've pretty much got used to it at this point.

 

[Kite159]

I have a feeling that both lockdown sceptics and pro-lockdown people will be disappointed on Monday with what Boris says.

Whatever happens, both groups won't be happy.

No doubt Sir Kier will be on his little soapbox saying it's too soon to relax and he wants even harsher restrictions

 

[initiation]

People will say business can't operate like that well they will just have to on this occasion this is a one off situation and as long we are headed to better times then then they will have the certainty to plan for that.

While I agree with some points of your post this is not really true is it, it is not a one off occasion - they've had extreme uncertainty since for 6+ months since the teirs were introduced, multiple changes in tiers, 'circuit breaker' lockdown, Christmas gatherings cancelled etc... And that follows 3+ months were many businesses were not legally allowed to operate at all.

Better times have been promised many times but have not yet come - 3 weeks to flatten the curve, beaten in 12 weeks, nomality by September, then November, then Christmas, then Easter and now Summer.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

While I agree with some points of your post this is not really true is it, it is not a one off occasion - they've had extreme uncertainty since for 6+ months since the teirs were introduced, multiple changes in tiers, 'circuit breaker' lockdown, Christmas gatherings cancelled etc... And that follows 3+ months were many businesses were not legally allowed to operate at all.

Better times have been promised many times but have not yet come - 3 weeks to flatten the curve, beaten in 12 weeks, nomality by September, then November, then Christmas, then Easter and now Summer.

To clarify if govt specify dates they will take the long view to give themselves air cover just case things don't playout as they forecast. My proposition is they should manage it dynamically on a daily basis then we can take the benefit when the requirements are fulfilled. As i see it vaccine or not seasonal effects will soon become dominate moderator and cases will drop rapidly and thus relaxation opportunities will be possible earlier than a cautious fixed timetable. I get business have had a torrid time but my take is they will want to open as soon as they can even if start is a bit fractious as supply chains get rebooted.

 

[Carlisle]

Christmas gatherings cancelled etc...

Several Governments appeared to essentially mislead their populations into entering full lockdowns in late autumn as crucial to offering a near normal Christmas period

 

[londonteacher]

Whitehall officials have drawn up a timetable to help work out internal plans to roll out the government's planned mass COVID testing regime.

This suggests a desire to reopen rapidly in the weeks after schools readmit most children next month.

The blueprint suggests that students in higher education and further education could be back in mid-April, and non-essential shops will reopen at the same time.
Then, in late April, hospitality venues, hotels, leisure facilities and some sporting venues will open their doors.

Entertainment venues and sporting facilities would follow in early May.

The blueprint was included in Whitehall documents in recent days.

Revealed: Whitehall plans for rapid reopening of shops, pubs and restaurants

That's quite good - two months to reopen fully. Not as quick as some would hope but is in line with the recent vaccination of when the 9 groups would be complete and looks hopeful.

 

[Bayum]

I was hoping some form of return to work proper for those shielding and had their vaccines. Great.

Definitely hoping for some form of gym reopening.

 

[Mintona]

Schools will reopen on 8th March. Rates will rise. Schools will be closed again after the Easter Holidays. Everything else postponed until it is under control.

April 2022 for pubs and restaurants to reopen.
April 2023 for removal of social distancing and face coverings.
April 2024 for restriction free international travel.

 

[bengley]

Schools will reopen on 8th March. Rates will rise. Schools will be closed again after the Easter Holidays. Everything else postponed until it is under control.

April 2022 for pubs and restaurants to reopen.
April 2023 for removal of social distancing and face coverings.
April 2024 for restriction free international travel.

That's all a bit optimistic isn't it?

 

[Huntergreed]

Schools will reopen on 8th March. Rates will rise. Schools will be closed again after the Easter Holidays. Everything else postponed until it is under control.

April 2022 for pubs and restaurants to reopen.
April 2023 for removal of social distancing and face coverings.
April 2024 for restriction free international travel.

I can only hope this is hyperbolic, this is extreme pessimism!!

Things are looking good, unless the government foolishly opt for ZERO-COVID (which I don’t think they will).

 

[SouthEastBuses]

When the first restrictions get eased or lifted will we finally be back to Stay Alert, Control the virus, Save lives?

 

[Class 33]

I'm feeling a bit more optimistic today. Infection rates, cases, hospital admissions, numbers in hospital, deaths are all absolutely plumetting week on week. The CRG and business leaders are putting more pressure on Johnson to get all restrictions lifted soon. There will also be a vote in parliament on 29th March as to whether the Coronavirus restrictions should be extended beyond the end of March. And all the stats will be much better by then. So I think even if Johnson announces on Monday that social distancing and face mask wearing restrictions will still continue for the forseeable future or at least the Autumn or whatever, I am feeling that these restrictions could still end up finally being scrapped by sometime in July.

 

[ChrisC]

I'm feeling a bit more optimistic today. Infection rates, cases, hospital admissions, numbers in hospital, deaths are all absolutely plumetting week on week. The CRG and business leaders are putting more pressure on Johnson to get all restrictions lifted soon. There will also be a vote in parliament on 29th March as to whether the Coronavirus restrictions should be extended beyond the end of March. And all the stats will be much better by then. So I think even if Johnson announces on Monday that social distancing and face mask wearing restrictions will still continue for the forseeable future or at least the Autumn or whatever, I am feeling that these restrictions could still end up finally being scrapped by sometime in July.

Same here. I’ve also been feeling a little bit more optimistic these last few days. Even the BBC 6 O’clock News didn’t leave me feeling quite so depressed yesterday.

A few weeks ago, especially when it became clear that at last something was going right with the very successful vaccination roll out and rates of infection beginning to fall quite quickly, I thought that we might see a big step towards normality around Easter. Lots of people seemed to be of the same mind including the majority on this forum. The CRG, business leaders and many conservative MPs were also wanting the same. Then we began to get all the doom and gloom with the goal posts seeming to be continually moved. All this talk from Boris and SAGE about being cautious and newspapers headlines of restrictions lasting right through until the autumn and even into next year. We were told not to book holidays even in the UK and that hospitality venues may not open again until late summer at the earliest.

With infection rates and numbers in hospital still being quite high in some parts of the Midlands and the North and rates there only falling slowly, I don’t think we will see everything nearly back to normal by Easter. What I do think will now happen is a gradual easing of restrictions from Easter onwards and then perhaps apart from some degree of social distancing and mask wearing everything reasonably back to normal by about June. After all the pessimism and doom and gloom of the last few weeks, when people were led to believe we were in this for the rest of the year and beyond, Boris will then be saying haven’t we done well by removing restrictions earlier than predicted.

 

[LAX54]

Schools will reopen on 8th March. Rates will rise. Schools will be closed again after the Easter Holidays. Everything else postponed until it is under control.

April 2022 for pubs and restaurants to reopen.
April 2023 for removal of social distancing and face coverings.
April 2024 for restriction free international travel.

Kill me now then!

 

[Bayum]

I'm feeling a bit more optimistic today. Infection rates, cases, hospital admissions, numbers in hospital, deaths are all absolutely plumetting week on week. The CRG and business leaders are putting more pressure on Johnson to get all restrictions lifted soon. There will also be a vote in parliament on 29th March as to whether the Coronavirus restrictions should be extended beyond the end of March. And all the stats will be much better by then. So I think even if Johnson announces on Monday that social distancing and face mask wearing restrictions will still continue for the forseeable future or at least the Autumn or whatever, I am feeling that these restrictions could still end up finally being scrapped by sometime in July.

You say plummeting - hasn’t this week been the smallest reduction from last week in cases so far?

 

[Bikeman78]

We were told not to book holidays even in the UK

This is the bit I don't understand. If the trip is refundable, why not go ahead and book? I've made some Premier Inn bookings. Even with the cheapest rate I can change the dates. I had a booking last Autumn which, thanks to different restrictions in Wales and England, I changed three times. On the last date, England was in lockdown so I got a full refund. Apart from anything else, hotels and holidays will be cheaper now. Once Boris "allows" people to start booking trips, the prices will go up.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Main points of interest for me:

- Being able to go to pubs / restaurants
- Being able to go on holiday within the UK
- Being allowed to visit friends in their homes (Rule of 6 etc)

While the situation last summer was by no means perfect, it felt like a significant return to normality for me. I don't really go to large events very often, though I am sympathetic to the damage done by social distancing. And wearing a mask is not a particular bother to me anymore - I wear it all the time at work and I've pretty much got used to it at this point.

Exactly the same for me, although I'd move your point 3 to point 1. I could cope with points 1 and 2 waiting a bit longer if point 3 was allowed.

Sadly I suspect that indoor household mixing will be one of the last things to go.

 

[alansheppard77]

Schools will reopen on 8th March. Rates will rise. Schools will be closed again after the Easter Holidays. Everything else postponed until it is under control.

April 2022 for pubs and restaurants to reopen.
April 2023 for removal of social distancing and face coverings.
April 2024 for restriction free international travel.

what a stupid statement,the country wouldnt survive that

 

[Ianno87]

what a stupid statement,the country wouldnt survive that

I would, however, expect international travel to basically be a write-off for this year at this stage; 2022 is my prediction for that.

 

[Bald Rick]

You say plummeting - hasn’t this week been the smallest reduction from last week in cases so far?

The rate of reduction has been pretty consistent for weeks now - week on week in the region of -25% for cases, hospital admissions and deaths. This is consistent with an R rate in the range 0.7-0.9 as estimated by the ONS.

But, as you have smaller numbers in each category, the reduction in absolute numbers will get smaller each week, as those 25%s are of a reducing number each week.

Also there is variability in the daily numbers - particularly hospital occupancy - that need ironing out with a 7 day average. It is pretty consistent that hospital numbers stay constant for 3 days then fall rapidly for 4. I suspect it is to do with records of discharges.

 

[Class 33]

You say plummeting - hasn’t this week been the smallest reduction from last week in cases so far?

Well yes they've slowed down a bit this week. But chances are they'll pick up a bit again. But even if cases do rise again, then that won't matter too much now as the hospital numbers and deaths will continue to fall week on week. The most vulnerable people have already been vaccinated, and these vulnerable people previously accounted for 90% of hospitalisations and deaths. They won't be going into hospital or dieing from Coronavirus now.

 

[Watershed]

Sadly I suspect that indoor household mixing will be one of the last things to go.

Sadly, my prediction is the same in that respect.

It's noteworthy that in Northern Ireland it's a reasonable excuse to visit someone else in their house, as long as you do so with no more than 30 people in total. They also permit bubbles between any two households - there is no requirement for one household to be a single-adult household.

I'm sure a maximum even significantly below 30 (say, the rule of 6) would bring massive mental health and wellbeing benefits to the millions of people that are struggling right now. And so, if that rule is good enough for them, with no indication that it is stopping the case rates etc. from dropping as in the rest of the UK, why can it not be adopted in other parts of the UK?

We are just about the only part of Europe (apart from Ireland, which is like Wales on steroids in terms of its locktivism) where you cannot meet with one other household indoors. That basic level of social interaction is a crucial part of being human and remaining sane. I dread to think of the deleterious impact this is having on millions of lives.

The rate of reduction has been pretty consistent for weeks now - week on week in the region of -25% for cases, hospital admissions and deaths. This is consistent with an R rate in the range 0.7-0.9 as estimated by the ONS.

But, as you have smaller numbers in each category, the reduction in absolute numbers will get smaller each week, as those 25%s are of a reducing number each week.

Also there is variability in the daily numbers - particularly hospital occupancy - that need ironing out with a 7 day average. It is pretty consistent that hospital numbers stay constant for 3 days then fall rapidly for 4. I suspect it is to do with records of discharges.

Yes, due to the exponential nature of the growth and decline of infections, you get the worst of all worlds. Diseases start spreading ever faster, and once you start reducing cases, your 'progress' back to zero takes (in theory) an infinite length of time.

This is just one of many reasons why aspirations for zero Covid are, in the short to medium term, unrealistic and dangerous in their own right.

 

[Ianno87]

Sadly, my prediction is the same in that respect.

If indoors mixing were permitted, it would be a *huge* morale boost for so many right now (myself included)

 

[Kite159]

This is the bit I don't understand. If the trip is refundable, why not go ahead and book? I've made some Premier Inn bookings. Even with the cheapest rate I can change the dates. I had a booking last Autumn which, thanks to different restrictions in Wales and England, I changed three times. On the last date, England was in lockdown so I got a full refund. Apart from anything else, hotels and holidays will be cheaper now. Once Boris "allows" people to start booking trips, the prices will go up.

Agreed about booking hotels at flexible rates when they are cheaper.

Biggest issue for Easter/summer is probably those who transferred their booking from 2020 to 2021 as they were told they couldn't cancel in the hope they could get away this year.

 

[6862]

If indoors mixing were permitted, it would be a *huge* morale boost for so many right now (myself included)

For that very reason I suspect the government will keep it illegal for as long as possible/permanently.

 

[chris11256]

For that very reason I suspect the government will keep it illegal for as long as possible/permanently.

I fear the same, not permanently but I do suspect indoor household mixing won't be allowed at all for a long time. It's not an environment that the Government can control(social distancing/regulations and such) so they'll keep it banned for as long as possible.

 

[yorksrob]

I see from the breaking news that Northern Ireland has extended its lockdown to 1st April.

If I were a resident there, I would be incandescent.