TravelDream
Member
- Joined
- 7 Aug 2016
- Messages
- 675
We have three ballots around here.
Two for the Welsh parliament and one for the pointless Police and Crime 'Commissioner'.
I've had a fair bit through the door from almost every party running. Some a lot more amateur than others. I don't think many read them to be honest and they end up straight in the bin.
I sent my postal ballot off at the start of the week.
The shy Tory effect was once real, but it isn't today. In 2019 the polls were about right, in 2017 there was a serious shy Labour vote as Labour outperformed their numbers by 6-7 points, and in 2015 the polls were all over the place with some right and some wrong showing Labour doing better than they actually did.
On minor parties, it's actually the opposite of what you say
Generally on election day, the minor parties fall back a little from their poll numbers and the main two benefit from that. I don't think anti-lockdown parties are going to do well at all.
Two for the Welsh parliament and one for the pointless Police and Crime 'Commissioner'.
I've had a fair bit through the door from almost every party running. Some a lot more amateur than others. I don't think many read them to be honest and they end up straight in the bin.
I sent my postal ballot off at the start of the week.
I do wonder how much of a "shy-Tory" effect will apply to next week's elections, but not in terms of underestimating Tory support, but underestimating support for anyone who isn't Tory or Labour, or more specifically, is against all the restrictions. I doubt support for anti-restrictions groups will blow the whole thing away, if there's such a thing, but we may see levels like 10% more than expected going elsewhere can cause surprising results in places.
The shy Tory effect was once real, but it isn't today. In 2019 the polls were about right, in 2017 there was a serious shy Labour vote as Labour outperformed their numbers by 6-7 points, and in 2015 the polls were all over the place with some right and some wrong showing Labour doing better than they actually did.
On minor parties, it's actually the opposite of what you say
Generally on election day, the minor parties fall back a little from their poll numbers and the main two benefit from that. I don't think anti-lockdown parties are going to do well at all.