Covid restrictions to end on 19th July

[brad465]

I will imagine a lot of pubs and nightclubs near the Scottish border will have excellent trade as large numbers of Scots (especially the younger generation) are already planing trips to England to escape Sturgeons reign of tyrant measures.

If they don't mind spending an hour longer on the train, I'm sure us Geordies would give them a warm welcome!

(Until they start buying up all the cheap advances on the first trains of the day north...)

Maybe not. But watch the flood of people hit Newcastle, Manchester and Liverpool considering it is fairs forknight starting on the 19th. I am sure Nicola will be patrolling Glasgow central.

Yes I was going to say nightlife in the likes of Newcastle is among the top in the country normally, so if they were going to escape to anywhere, it's there. It would be interesting if Carlisle had good nightlife and/or other services not available in Scotland, because it would become a parallel Gretna Green

 

[NorthOxonian]

Yes I was going to say nightlife in the likes of Newcastle is among the top in the country normally, so if they were going to escape to anywhere, it's there. It would be interesting if Carlisle had good nightlife and/or other services not available in Scotland, because it would become a parallel Gretna Green

Carlisle did briefly play that role when pubs were open in England but not Scotland. But while it's a decent place for visiting pubs, if a little rough and ready, I'm not aware of any nightclubs there. And if they did exist I think you'd have to be brave to venture in!

That said, has anything been said about sporting events in Scotland? If they're behind closed doors at the start of next season I wonder if Carlisle United might start eating into Queen of the South's support?

 

[Failed Unit]

Carlisle did briefly play that role when pubs were open in England but not Scotland. But while it's a decent place for visiting pubs, if a little rough and ready, I'm not aware of any nightclubs there. And if they did exist I think you'd have to be brave to venture in!

That said, has anything been said about sporting events in Scotland? If they're behind closed doors at the start of next season I wonder if Carlisle United might start eating into Queen of the South's support?

2000 short term. But Celtic have already applied for an exception.

 

[NorthKent1989]

So restrictions have caused record alcohol deaths, doubled depression sufferer numbers, exacerbated domestic abuse, increased neglect of other ailments getting diagnosed and more. Today we can add stalking instances rising during lockdown, with more than 80,000 offences recorded last year, but police action struggling to keep up:

Stalking rises during Covid pandemic - police

Over 80,000 incidents are recorded in 2020 in England and Wales - but arrests struggle to keep up.

www.bbc.co.uk

These are the sorts of stories/issues that need to be raised hard and regularly should restrictions ever be reinstated.

Yep, totally agree with you, yet all some are concerned about are cases of Covid and how death by Covid is now the only death that matters, the media has ignored this and are completely accountable to this shambles we’re in, and should be held responsible along with this useless government.

A complete removal of all restrictions will result in a wave of infections, hospitalisations and some deaths whenever it happens. That is the message that the public need to hear because it is going to happen at some point and happening in the summer when the hospitals are under less stress and are therefore more capable of dealing with it is the best time.

There will be a wave of infections no matter when restrictions are lifted, that’s life, Covid is here to stay, obsessing over Covid cases is getting beyond hysteria.

It's just Khan trying to do a Sturgeon.

Like most of Labour Khan is useless and wants to be seen to be doing something to oppose the government in lifting restrictions, let’s not forget Labour have backed the Tories to the hilt with restrictions.

 

[quantinghome]

A complete removal of all restrictions will result in a wave of infections, hospitalisations and some deaths whenever it happens. That is the message that the public need to hear because it is going to happen at some point and happening in the summer when the hospitals are under less stress and are therefore more capable of dealing with it is the best time.

Yes, all scenarios show a significant exit wave. But the speed at which restrictions are removed also has a big effect hospitalisations and deaths. That's now pretty clear from the government's messaging and yesterday's reports.

I get that most people posting in this thread want restrictions removed as quickly as possible. But you must surely know that's not where most people are at, that there is a whole range of public opinion on this and that this thread mostly reflects only one end of that range.

Have you not considered what the outcome will be if hospitalisations and deaths continue on their current upward trend or accelerate further when restrictions are removed all at once? If we get back to several hundred deaths a day there will be huge pressure on the government to act and reinstate some restrictions. Surely accepting a more gradual approach, no doubt through gritted teeth, would be a better strategy.

 

[big_rig]

Yes, all scenarios show a significant exit wave. But the speed at which restrictions are removed also has a big effect hospitalisations and deaths. That's now pretty clear from the government's messaging and yesterday's reports.

I get that most people posting in this thread want restrictions removed as quickly as possible. But you must surely know that's not where most people are at, that there is a whole range of public opinion on this and that this thread mostly reflects only one end of that range.

Have you not considered what the outcome will be if hospitalisations and deaths continue on their current upward trend or accelerate further when restrictions are removed all at once? If we get back to several hundred deaths a day there will be huge pressure on the government to act and reinstate some restrictions. Surely accepting a more gradual approach, no doubt through gritted teeth, would be a better strategy.

It. Is. Already. Gradual. Remember the 21st June being delayed? For a month? The intellectual dishonesty of pro-lockdowners is so frustrating.

Be honest and say that you want restrictions for another decade, because covid is going to be here forever. It is never going away. It is so easy to cut through the dishonesty - you want to extend restrictions ‘just a little longer’ but oh no then it’ll be winter…just a little longer after that…oh no another winter, more vaccines, blah blah more excuses.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Yes, all scenarios show a significant exit wave. But the speed at which restrictions are removed also has a big effect hospitalisations and deaths. That's now pretty clear from the government's messaging and yesterday's reports.

I get that most people posting in this thread want restrictions removed as quickly as possible. But you must surely know that's not where most people are at, that there is a whole range of public opinion on this and that this thread mostly reflects only one end of that range.

Have you not considered what the outcome will be if hospitalisations and deaths continue on their current upward trend or accelerate further when restrictions are removed all at once? If we get back to several hundred deaths a day there will be huge pressure on the government to act and reinstate some restrictions. Surely accepting a more gradual approach, no doubt through gritted teeth, would be a better strategy.

Firstly, I haven't stated what my preference is so don't start putting words into my mouth. I have stated a fact.

Secondly, you claim most people don't want restrictions to be lifted. Can you provide any evidence other than some nonsense online opinion poll to back that up? Many people will say things they think will make them look good. It doesn't mean they actually mean it. It is irrelevant what people think anyway. People think all sorts of things that shouldn't be made policy. What matters is what should happen.

Thirdly, making some claim based on nothing that several hundreds of people per day will die just shows you either have no grip on reality or you are just grasping at straws to find some reason for restrictions to remain.

 

[778]

If TFL are keeping mandatory masks after July 19th, does this include the concourses of the main London termini (eg Euston, Victoria etc)?

 

[Peter Mugridge]

If TFL are keeping mandatory masks after July 19th, does this include the concourses of the main London termini (eg Euston, Victoria etc)?

Those are Network Rail premises rather than TfL aren't they?

 

[kristiang85]

Surely accepting a more gradual approach, no doubt through gritted teeth, would be a better strategy.

This has been going on since February - 5 months. That is snails pace gradual.

I really doubt this Phase 4 is going to make any material difference to the trajectory - those who don't care for restrictions are already ignoring them in the main, and those who still want to be under restrictions will keep doing as they have been for the last few months. The rises are already tailing off, and Zoe (usually a reliable early indicator) is also showing some sort of peak has been reached. Hopefully it will gradually go down again.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Those are Network Rail premises rather than TfL aren't they?

And I was chatting to four NR staff on said concourse the other week and they all had exemption lanyards

 

[Dent]

Have you not considered what the outcome will be if hospitalisations and deaths continue on their current upward trend or accelerate further when restrictions are removed all at once? If we get back to several hundred deaths a day there will be huge pressure on the government to act and reinstate some restrictions. Surely accepting a more gradual approach, no doubt through gritted teeth, would be a better strategy.

What are you on about restrictions being "removed all at once"? That claim is completely false.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Yes, all scenarios show a significant exit wave. But the speed at which restrictions are removed also has a big effect hospitalisations and deaths. That's now pretty clear from the government's messaging and yesterday's reports.

I get that most people posting in this thread want restrictions removed as quickly as possible. But you must surely know that's not where most people are at, that there is a whole range of public opinion on this and that this thread mostly reflects only one end of that range.

Have you not considered what the outcome will be if hospitalisations and deaths continue on their current upward trend or accelerate further when restrictions are removed all at once? If we get back to several hundred deaths a day there will be huge pressure on the government to act and reinstate some restrictions. Surely accepting a more gradual approach, no doubt through gritted teeth, would be a better strategy.

Oh for god sake! How gradual do you want this? Until there’s nothing left to reopen to? June 21st was delayed and now it seems freedom day isn’t freedom day at all this month as 2019 levels of normality won’t be restored at all, still masks in some places, draconian vaccine passports in Autumn even though there’s no need for them.

You’re moving the goalposts like the government, it’s become obvious you don’t want restrictions to end at all for what ever reason, even though these restrictions have done more harm than good!

Have you not considered the irreparable damage being done? Or does only Covid matter to you and to hell with everything else.

 

[DustyBin]

Surely accepting a more gradual approach, no doubt through gritted teeth, would be a better strategy.

Maybe we could have reopened in stages? Oh, wait a minute…

Seriously, this hasn’t exactly been rushed has it, surely even you can see that?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Oh for god sake! How gradual do you want this? Until there’s nothing left to reopen to? June 21st was delayed and now it seems freedom day isn’t freedom day at all this month as 2019 levels of normality won’t be restored at all, still masks in some places, draconian vaccine passports in Autumn even though there’s no need for them.

You’re moving the goalposts like the government, it’s become obvious you don’t want restrictions to end at all for what ever reason, even though these restrictions have done more harm than good!

Have you not considered the irreparable damage being done? Or does only Covid matter to you and to hell with everything else.

The problem is even irreversible BoJo has dialled back on that outcome now if things get out of hand so I would rather have stage 3 for another few months to get vaccination levels up rather than risk us even ending up back at stage 2 or worse. What people aren't getting here is it isn't hospitalisations or mortality, they will significantly moderated, its the blasted track and isolate system removing thousands of people from the workforce on a daily basis and the higher cases go the higher those having to self isolate will be which leech into every corner of society and start undermining its functioning.

 

[MattA7]

I wonder if the pro-restrictions types have ever stopped to consider the mental health implications of the restrictions. My mental health has suffered and continues to do so to the point I was urgently referred to local mental health services. Unfortunately a lot of people view mental health problems in a benign way they believe that because it’s not physical it’s isn’t dangerous but that is far from the truth. I have also had to postpone my education and career plans as a result of the restrictions not to mention not reporting physical health issues to my GP as it’s currently a bureaucratic nightmare getting a appointment.

At least those in England can get a sense of some light at the end of the tunnel for those in Scotland (and possibly Wales) not so much

 

[yorkie]

We all want 2019 normal.

You don't appear to.

Unfortunately the speed at which the delta variant is spreading means that even with the very high levels of vaccine efficacy we have achieved, a complete removal of restrictions and a return to normal social interaction will produce a big exit wave of hospital admissions and deaths.

How many deaths are you talking about roughly?

Clearly some railforum members believe that's a price worth paying to return to normal.

Can you please elaborate what the price is exactly?

And if we don't go back to normal for whatever length of time you advocate, is there no price there?

But we need to recognise that this forum is not representative of the general view of the country.

Most people on the country want to go back to normal.

The problem is even irreversible BoJo has dialled back on that outcome now if things get out of hand so I would rather have stage 3 for another few months to get vaccination levels up rather than risk us even ending up back at stage 2 or worse.

How high do vaccination levels need to be for you to accept normality?

What people aren't getting here is it isn't hospitalisations or mortality, they will significantly moderated, its the blasted track and isolate system removing thousands of people from the workforce on a daily basis and the higher cases go the higher those having to self isolate will be which leech into every corner of society and start undermining its functioning.

The isolation of untested contacts needs to go, end of.

I wonder if the pro-restrictions types have ever stopped to consider the mental health implications of the restrictions.

Not really. They gave tedious excuses for this, such as it would be worse if restrictions weren't in place.

My mental health has suffered and continues to do so to the point I was urgently referred to local mental health services.

The standard excuse they give is mental health of young people can easily be repaired but the death of an elderly person is irreversible. But this really misses the point

Unfortunately a lot of people view mental health problems in a benign way they believe that because it’s not physical it’s isn’t dangerous but that is far from the truth. I have also had to postpone my education and career plans as a result of the restrictions not to mention not reporting physical health issues to my GP as it’s currently a bureaucratic nightmare getting a appointment.

They don't really care about this. They will huff and puff and make excuses

At least those in England can get a sense of some light at the end of the tunnel ...

Indeed.

Maybe we could have reopened in stages? Oh, wait a minute…

Seriously, this hasn’t exactly been rushed has it, surely even you can see that?

Stockholm syndrome prevents people seeing this.

What are you on about restrictions being "removed all at once"? That claim is completely false.

The pro restriction brigade are increasingly upset at losing the argument; they are becoming increasingly desperate and irrational.

If TFL are keeping mandatory masks after July 19th, does this include the concourses of the main London termini (eg Euston, Victoria etc)?

Nope and I don't see how their conditions are binding for a journey such as Farringdon to Blackfriars on GTR, for example.

 

[quantinghome]

It. Is. Already. Gradual. Remember the 21st June being delayed? For a month? The intellectual dishonesty of pro-lockdowners is so frustrating.

Be honest and say that you want restrictions for another decade, because covid is going to be here forever. It is never going away. It is so easy to cut through the dishonesty - you want to extend restrictions ‘just a little longer’ but oh no then it’ll be winter…just a little longer after that…oh no another winter, more vaccines, blah blah more excuses.

Are strawman arguments what this forum is now reduced to? Putting words in people's mouths, accusing forum members of 'intellectual dishonesty' simply for disagreeing with your viewpoint (assuming that comment was meant for me), deliberate misrepresentation?

I want restrictions gone this very instant. Now. At once. Immediately. Without Delay. I'm sick of them. But I recognise that will have significant downsides because we're not out of the woods yet, much as though I would like us to be. I can't simply wish the stark realities away, nor am I going to indulge myself in self-serving arguments that every choice is a bad as another so we may as well give up and let the virus do what it will.

Can we all please just take a breath and think what we're posting. Appreciate tempers run high on this issue but this thread is debasing what is usually an excellent discussion forum.

 

[yorkie]

Are strawman arguments what this forum is now reduced to? Putting words in people's mouths, accusing forum members of 'intellectual dishonesty' simply for disagreeing with your viewpoint (assuming that comment was meant for me), deliberate misrepresentation?

I want restrictions gone this very instant. Now. At once. Immediately. Without Delay. I'm sick of them. But I recognise that will have significant downsides because we're not out of the woods yet, much as though I would like us to be. I can't simply wish the stark realities away, nor am I going to indulge myself in self-serving arguments that every choice is a bad as another so we may as well give up and let the virus do what it will.

Can we all please just take a breath and think what we're posting. Appreciate tempers run high on this issue but this thread is debasing what is usually an excellent discussion forum.

I assume you are happy for @big_rig 's post to remain published; if not you would have not republished it and would instead have reported it.

I think if you are going to say we need to meet higher targets, you need to be clearer about what they are, if you're to be taken seriously; how high do vaccination levels need to be for you to accept normality? What if that's not achieved?

And what are you predicting exactly if we don't do as you desire?

 

[quantinghome]

Oh for god sake! How gradual do you want this? Until there’s nothing left to reopen to? June 21st was delayed and now it seems freedom day isn’t freedom day at all this month as 2019 levels of normality won’t be restored at all, still masks in some places, draconian vaccine passports in Autumn even though there’s no need for them.

You've no idea what I want or don't want.

I am suggesting that a 'freedom day' style rapid removal of restrictions, as you advocate, might backfire. I'm not saying this will happen, but there seems to a reasonable chance it might. Alternatively we might end up with a relatively small exit wave of less than 100 deaths per day which is done by the end of August and it's all over. Obviously I would prefer the latter option.

You’re moving the goalposts like the government, it’s become obvious you don’t want restrictions to end at all for what ever reason, even though these restrictions have done more harm than good!

I'm not moving goalposts. I don't have any goalposts. I'm not on the pitch. Do you think my opinion actually affects the outcome of this in any way?

Have you not considered the irreparable damage being done? Or does only Covid matter to you and to hell with everything else.

You've no idea what damage these 16 months has done to me or my family. Stop making assumptions about people's situations.

 

[bramling]

The problem is even irreversible BoJo has dialled back on that outcome now if things get out of hand so I would rather have stage 3 for another few months to get vaccination levels up rather than risk us even ending up back at stage 2 or worse. What people aren't getting here is it isn't hospitalisations or mortality, they will significantly moderated, its the blasted track and isolate system removing thousands of people from the workforce on a daily basis and the higher cases go the higher those having to self isolate will be which leech into every corner of society and start undermining its functioning.

“Irreversible” is a bit of a distraction, as under our political system no government / parliament can bind its successor - so there is no such thing.

The only way it can be irreversible if it becomes politically impossible, that is people will not accept it. Notwithstanding that the public mood has certainly shifted, I’d say we’re not at that point.

So it’s not irreversible, wasn’t ever going to be irreversible, and probably won’t ever be.

How feasible it is to dial back is another matter of course - further furlough is almost certainly non affordable.

 

[NorthKent1989]

The problem is even irreversible BoJo has dialled back on that outcome now if things get out of hand so I would rather have stage 3 for another few months to get vaccination levels up rather than risk us even ending up back at stage 2 or worse. What people aren't getting here is it isn't hospitalisations or mortality, they will significantly moderated, its the blasted track and isolate system removing thousands of people from the workforce on a daily basis and the higher cases go the higher those having to self isolate will be which leech into every corner of society and start undermining its functioning.

Over half the population are vaccinated now, what more do you want? Also stage 3 for another few months? Why? Covid is now a minor respiratory illness we must live with and some people’s mental health won’t last a few more months! How utterly ridiculous

 

[quantinghome]

I assume you are happy for @big_rig 's post to remain published; if not you would have not republished it and would instead have reported it.

Sure. I thought @big_rig's post was problematic for the reasons stated but as it didn't cross over into actual abuse I didn't feel the need to report it.

 

[35B]

I think if you are going to say we need to meet higher targets, you need to be clearer about what they are, if you're to be taken seriously; how high do vaccination levels need to be for you to accept normality? What if that's not achieved?

And what are you predicting exactly if we don't do as you desire?

Covid: Masks to remain compulsory on London transport

Face coverings must be worn despite restrictions easing in England on 19 July, London's mayor says.

www.bbc.co.uk

What nonsense; someone not wearing a flimsy mask puts no-one at risk.

But what happens on journeys such as:

• Harrow on the Hill to Amersham (Chiltern)
• Bushey to Harrow & Wealdstone (WMT)
• Upminster to West Ham (c2c)
• Kentish Town to Blackfriars (GTR)

TfL will not be able to require masks at any point in any of the above journeys, surely?

I doubt Sadiq Khan has the intelligence or knowledge to realise what he is trying to mandate.

Khan knows precisely what he’s doing. He’s taking the view of the many, especially in his selectorate (keep an eye on the possibility of a by election in east London if the MP loses their housing fraud trial), and marking a political difference Johnson. Andy “Stafford” Burnham is doing precisely the same.

They, and I think the government, recognise that a free for all will maximise the size of the exit wave, and cause problems as case numbers rise, people are forced to isolate, and the NHS comes under pressure (a pressure that’s already increasing due to both real cases and isolations). They see political opportunity in this, whereas Johnson is constrained by his MPs (very many of whom have been radicalised by the Brexit process and are succumbing to winner takes all politics) and therefore forced down the road of “freedom day” messaging whether or not justified.

The pity is that relaxation is the right policy, but comes with costs and risks that he has no political credibility left to cope with.

 

[NorthKent1989]

You've no idea what I want or don't want.

I am suggesting that a 'freedom day' style rapid removal of restrictions, as you advocate, might backfire. I'm not saying this will happen, but there seems to a reasonable chance it might. Alternatively we might end up with a relatively small exit wave of less than 100 deaths per day which is over by the end of August and it's all over. Obviously I would prefer the latter option.


I'm not moving goalposts. I don't have any goalposts. I'm not on the pitch. Do you think my opinion actually affects the outcome of this in any way?


You've no idea what damage these 16 months has done to me or my family. Stop making assumptions about people's situations.

You’ve been perfectly clear on what you want, you’re the one who keeps saying “a few more weeks until….” Then another deadline has passed and again you say “a few more weeks because cases….”

As for opinions being listened to, we’ll let’s put it this way your views and views if others of a similar mindset have been listened too far more than that of others and pro lockdowners have the media as their mouthpiece.

You don’t seem that affected by the restrictions or else you wouldn’t keep supporting them.

 

[35B]

Over half the population are vaccinated now, what more do you want? Also stage 3 for another few months? Why? Covid is now a minor respiratory illness we must live with and some people’s mental health won’t last a few more months! How utterly ridiculous

It isn’t minor, and there are plenty of people whose mental and physical health is challenged by this change. Hysterical demands do your cause no favours, and reinforce the impression that all you care about is the effect on yourself.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Are strawman arguments what this forum is now reduced to? Putting words in people's mouths, accusing forum members of 'intellectual dishonesty' simply for disagreeing with your viewpoint (assuming that comment was meant for me), deliberate misrepresentation?

I want restrictions gone this very instant. Now. At once. Immediately. Without Delay. I'm sick of them. But I recognise that will have significant downsides because we're not out of the woods yet, much as though I would like us to be. I can't simply wish the stark realities away, nor am I going to indulge myself in self-serving arguments that every choice is a bad as another so we may as well give up and let the virus do what it will.

Can we all please just take a breath and think what we're posting. Appreciate tempers run high on this issue but this thread is debasing what is usually an excellent discussion forum.

Not out the woods yet? How so?

 

[quantinghome]

You don’t seem that affected by the restrictions or else you wouldn’t keep supporting them.

Stop. Making. Assumptions. About. How. People. Are. Being. Affected.

Seriously.

 

[bramling]

Khan knows precisely what he’s doing. He’s taking the view of the many, especially in his selectorate (keep an eye on the possibility of a by election in east London if the MP loses their housing fraud trial), and marking a political difference Johnson. Andy “Stafford” Burnham is doing precisely the same.

They, and I think the government, recognise that a free for all will maximise the size of the exit wave, and cause problems as case numbers rise, people are forced to isolate, and the NHS comes under pressure (a pressure that’s already increasing due to both real cases and isolations). They see political opportunity in this, whereas Johnson is constrained by his MPs (very many of whom have been radicalised by the Brexit process and are succumbing to winner takes all politics) and therefore forced down the road of “freedom day” messaging whether or not justified.

The pity is that relaxation is the right policy, but comes with costs and risks that he has no political credibility left to cope with.

Johnson is taking a gamble for sure, and if it goes wrong (there *is* for sure an element of risk with lots of young people still unvaccinated), then things will certainly get difficult politically.

However given mask use on the Underground has dropped quite considerably in recent weeks, I’d say Khan is a bit out of step with London. There is very little social distancing in London now.

It’s all a little academic though, as if masks worked well then we wouldn’t be where we have been this year.

 

[Horizon22]

Keeping the windows open underground to bring in all the harmful particles from the tunnels.

Ironically the masks might actually be of some use against the tunnel pollutants

Wearing a mask on the Underground probably does genuinely have some health benefits outside of just Covid considering how dirty the air can get.