SWR Metro fleet permanent withdrawals

[Bigfoot]

Would it be at all feasible to have the spare 465s and 466s on the south western in the event the capacity was needed and they were the only stock available?

No.

 

[DelW]

I think WarrenTManager mentioned not that long ago that no other trains will be going off lease (455 I think he said) until 701s start coming into service.

In that case I'm looking forward to the 455s' Golden Jubilee celebrations

 

[Southern Dvr]

No.

They’ll be headed back from whence they came in due course is the latest I’ve heard on stored 465/466 units.

 

[Meerkat]

The big risk for SWR is that if the middle 3 days (Tuesday-Thursday) rush hour trains get anything close to pre pandemic loadings then SWR is going to struggle as it 200-300 coaches short of its franchise launch commitments.

Theoretically they shouldn't as some of those who were commuting will be full time (or near as) WFH and others doing different days from ****.
And if it gets to the stage that the trains are overcrowded on **** and half empty Mondays and Fridays then I dont think the taxpayer should be funding extra capacity - make the commuters adapt and work Mondays and Fridays.

 

[Goldfish62]

Theoretically they shouldn't as some of those who were commuting will be full time (or near as) WFH and others doing different days from ****.
And if it gets to the stage that the trains are overcrowded on **** and half empty Mondays and Fridays then I dont think the taxpayer should be funding extra capacity - make the commuters adapt and work Mondays and Fridays.

Plus I don't think employers will let it get to that position. If they're downsizing their accommodation to accommodate around the average number of staff that will attend work per day they don't want a situation where there's not enough room for everyone mid-week. They will force the issue. I think they'll also question what exactly is so special about Monday and Friday that staff have to work from home on those days. My suspicion is that a lot of people are bunking off early on Fridays to create their own unofficial long weekend every weekend.

When I worked full time I chose to work from home once or twice a week during mid-week. It spilt the week up.

 

[43096]

Theoretically they shouldn't as some of those who were commuting will be full time (or near as) WFH and others doing different days from ****.
And if it gets to the stage that the trains are overcrowded on **** and half empty Mondays and Fridays then I dont think the taxpayer should be funding extra capacity - make the commuters adapt and work Mondays and Fridays.

It’s never a good idea to think that you can force changes in customer behaviour. It tends to lead to them changing their ways as they’re disgruntled by poor service - so they’ll just WFH more rather than less.

 

[Southern Dvr]

It’s never a good idea to think that you can force changes in customer behaviour. It tends to lead to them changing their ways as they’re disgruntled by poor service - so they’ll just WFH more rather than less.

WFH is what the DfT wants. Providing a useful service is too expensive.

 

[JonathanH]

WFH is what the DfT wants.

Not sure that is true. They would like even loadings across the week though.

Providing a useful service is too expensive.

The DfT wants to find a position that is sustainable. Running the service that existed in March 2020 with fewer passengers is totally unrealistic.

 

[Southern Dvr]

DfT have and continue to reduce the amount of trains running, when you’re carting fleets off to scrap and looking at the service reductions we’re seeing proposed it just would not be in DfT interests to have the levels of demand that there was pre pandemic.

 

[WarrenTManager]

Plus I don't think employers will let it get to that position. If they're downsizing their accommodation to accommodate around the average number of staff that will attend work per day they don't want a situation where there's not enough room for everyone mid-week. They will force the issue. I think they'll also question what exactly is so special about Monday and Friday that staff have to work from home on those days. My suspicion is that a lot of people are bunking off early on Fridays to create their own unofficial long weekend every weekend.

When I worked full time I chose to work from home once or twice a week during mid-week. It spilt the week up.

Friday as POETS day existed in the 90s let alone now.

It was a lot harder day as when I was in the motor trade everyone wanted their cars earlier!

Pee off early tomorrow’s Saturday for those who haven’t had that in their work ‘banter’

 

[Pep and co]

Has 458504 moved from it's position on 12 road at Wimbledon? Would like to get a decent photo of it if possible.
Thanks in advance for any help

 

[Goldfish62]

DfT have and continue to reduce the amount of trains running, when you’re carting fleets off to scrap and looking at the service reductions we’re seeing proposed it just would not be in DfT interests to have the levels of demand that there was pre pandemic.

You've got it the wrong way around. The reason that fleets are being carted off for scrap and the DfT are implementing service reductions is precisely because there are not the levels of demands there were pre-pandemic.

 

[Southern Dvr]

You've got it the wrong way around. The reason that fleets are being carted off for scrap and the DfT are implementing service reductions is precisely because there are not the levels of demands there were pre-pandemic.

Because until last week we were still dealing with a pandemic. Apparently it’s all over now and back to normal.

If you build it they will come, if you knock it down they won’t.

 

[43096]

If you build it they will come, if you knock it down they won’t.

If you have a decent product to sell. The problem for the railway is that its core South East repeat business (i.e. commuters) had to use the service previously but in many cases don't now. That meant the service quality was poor for a high price. That's not a position of strength for getting customers back.

The alternative of working from home, with a several £k saving per year and spending probably 2hrs or more less travelling is a very attractive one.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

You've got it the wrong way around. The reason that fleets are being carted off for scrap and the DfT are implementing service reductions is precisely because there are not the levels of demands there were pre-pandemic.

For sure the high peak will be consigned history but there has been a rapid recovery in usage over the last few weeks according to latest DofT weekly data release from Wednesday although data doesn't distinguish between commuting and leisure we will have to await for ORR qtrly stats to find that out. Also on financial support to operators DofT updated data yesterday upto October and it shows financial support to SWR has dropped back considerably with only GA looking better on L&SE service groups. The risk here is premature scrapping of units denies the industry capacity to respond should things change. Oil prices are going in wrong direction already so people could be priced out of their cars.

 

[Towers]

If you have a decent product to sell. The problem for the railway is that its core South East repeat business (i.e. commuters) had to use the service previously but in many cases don't now. That meant the service quality was poor for a high price. That's not a position of strength for getting customers back.

The alternative of working from home, with a several £k saving per year and spending probably 2hrs or more less travelling is a very attractive one.

Indeed, many folk will simply have decided/realised that it isn't worth their while any more. The industry has made some moves to try and counter this, most notably flexible season tickets, but in other areas is still falling a very long way short - how many major station car parks have reduced their ridiculous prices, for example? These things need to be considered. It'll also be deeply regretable if the railway ends up expecting commuters to go back to travelling like sardines in packed trains when everybody knows that passenger numbers have dropped drastically, because they've got rid of large swathes of their fleets. That really won't be a good look, and people paying £££s for their travel will notice and ask questions!

 

[Snow1964]

It’s never a good idea to think that you can force changes in customer behaviour. It tends to lead to them changing their ways as they’re disgruntled by poor service - so they’ll just WFH more rather than less.

Have done some reading up to find what is happening and likely to happen. It seems you can split it by age (and wealth, although in broad terms that is reflective of age).

It seems most of the younger staff (20s and 30s) live closer to London, are more likely to have small apartment or house, and thus no dedicated room as a study at home, so expected to return to work. There are suggestions the newer employees can’t get correct training, mentoring etc if not in office. There are also suggestions getting promotions and pay rises will be hard if not visible.

A group, late 30s and early 40s in age often have small children, so working from home avoids chiildcare, but home isn’t conducive to concentrated work time at set hours. Mixed picture but if they think they are being overlooked at work are expected to drift back.

Late 40s and early 50s. Many of this group live further from London having bought family sized homes 10-20 years ago, these are your longer distance commuters often travelling 15-40 miles each day. This group seems to expect to travel just 1 or 2 days for meetings and to be seen. But are likely to do 2-4 days at home. It is suggested most office meets will avoid Monday or Friday.

Mid 50s to retirement. Those in this category who travel to London have probably seen 30+ years of commuting, and it seems in many cases would go part time or retire early rather than go back full time in office. It seems anyone who has travelled 30+ years to London is probably in a job that is well paid, and due to age will have decent amount of wealth (even if it tied up in their home, or old style pension).

It will be clear that if these predictions are correct then SWR has a problem, it’s longer distance commuter services from Basingstoke, Guildford etc will be difficult to fill, or at very least loadings could be uneven on different days of the week. On the other hand the inner suburban services (the ones where they have been scrapping trains) could return to normal much sooner. So if the HR and psychological predictions of work are correct, could be that more 450s will need to move from mainline fleet short term.

 

[HST43257]

Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask, but is there a SWR 455 Diagrams thread?

 

[swt_passenger]

Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask, but is there a SWR 455 Diagrams thread?

I’ve never seen one in years.

 

[73128]

Have done some reading up to find what is happening and likely to happen. It seems you can split it by age (and wealth, although in broad terms that is reflective of age).

It seems most of the younger staff (20s and 30s) live closer to London, are more likely to have small apartment or house, and thus no dedicated room as a study at home, so expected to return to work. There are suggestions the newer employees can’t get correct training, mentoring etc if not in office. There are also suggestions getting promotions and pay rises will be hard if not visible.

A group, late 30s and early 40s in age often have small children, so working from home avoids chiildcare, but home isn’t conducive to concentrated work time at set hours. Mixed picture but if they think they are being overlooked at work are expected to drift back.

Late 40s and early 50s. Many of this group live further from London having bought family sized homes 10-20 years ago, these are your longer distance commuters often travelling 15-40 miles each day. This group seems to expect to travel just 1 or 2 days for meetings and to be seen. But are likely to do 2-4 days at home. It is suggested most office meets will avoid Monday or Friday.

Mid 50s to retirement. Those in this category who travel to London have probably seen 30+ years of commuting, and it seems in many cases would go part time or retire early rather than go back full time in office. It seems anyone who has travelled 30+ years to London is probably in a job that is well paid, and due to age will have decent amount of wealth (even if it tied up in their home, or old style pension).

It will be clear that if these predictions are correct then SWR has a problem, it’s longer distance commuter services from Basingstoke, Guildford etc will be difficult to fill, or at very least loadings could be uneven on different days of the week. On the other hand the inner suburban services (the ones where they have been scrapping trains) could return to normal much sooner. So if the HR and psychological predictions of work are correct, could be that more 450s will need to move from mainline fleet short term.

Reflective of TfL ridership by SE ToC standards being pretty high for its mostly short distance travelling.

 

[JonathanH]

Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask, but is there a SWR 455 Diagrams thread?

They tend to follow a fairly standard pattern of interworking. You could fairly easily compile your own diagrams looking at a good day on RTT with the allocations shown there (although it might take a while).

 

[Juniper Driver]

So where is 5740 now?…Now moved from outside Wimbledon shed.

 

[WarrenTManager]

Has 458504 moved from it's position on 12 road at Wimbledon? Would like to get a decent photo of it if possible.
Thanks in advance for any help

So where is 5740 now?…Now moved from outside Wimbledon shed.

5740 went onto 11 road inside the shed on Saturday, now back in the usual spot.

8504 is still on 12 road

5859 and 5912 are going to Bournemouth for exam work on Wednesday, I would reckon they will be on the 5B39 path. I would then also bet on 5708 and 5734 having been completed and returning with the same driver on 5Y51.
Bournemouth cannot carry out all work arising as they don't have the competency* or materials for all jobs, so there might be a couple of bits to do but I would imaging 5708/34 to re-enter the fray in the not too distant future.

*it's not that they can't physically do it. You have to be signed off and witnessed by an assessor before doing a particular job for every different job and train. That doesn't mean the staff are literally incompetent, they are damn good!

 

[Box]

Was partly blocked by an up fast train going the other way, but looked like at least one 456 coach on a low loader at the country end of the depot late this afternoon?

 

[Class455]

Was partly blocked by an up fast train going the other way, but looked like at least one 456 coach on a low loader at the country end of the depot late this afternoon?

It was 456005

 

[Juniper Driver]

5740 went onto 11 road inside the shed on Saturday, now back in the usual spot.

Thanks!
Yup saw it yesterday in normal spot…Looks like the light clusters have been removed both ends…Looks a right state now.

 

[WarrenTManager]

6001 being prepped for a journey out of the depot by lorry

 

[theblackwatch]

It was 456005

Presumably gone to Newport?

 

[43096]

Presumably gone to Newport?

All the others (I think including one by road?) have gone to Long Marston.

 

[fodphil]

6001 being prepped for a journey out of the depot by lorry

When is it leaving?