Post Covid Passenger Rebound

[Bald Rick]

There’s something odd about the numbers for that week. The current numbers fron the same source are at 70% for the past week. Revenue has been consistent for the last three weeks.

However, by comparison , I would say LNER is doing really well getting passengers back and thier trains have bene really well loaded.

try the 0700 off York, and compare to Pre Covid. The Yorkshire business market has disappeared, and that paid a lot of the bills.

 

[yorksrob]

The problem is, unless the treasury gives the industry the freedom to provide the offers that are likely to attract passengers back, they'll never know what potential there is in the current market.

 

[A0wen]

As I have said for years, raise some advance fares, add a bit on to off-peak fares and massively reduce peak fares. Let’s also stop calling them Anytime fares when they are open fares rebranded - and never originally intended for that purpose. That nonsense was introduced with privatisation. They are peak fares. Most people use them on a day return basis.

This chicken was always going to come home to roost as it was a rip off. The question now is how imaginative the bean counters and marketing people are at setting the new rules of the game. So far, so bad.

Bit in bold - but the term "anytime" is far easier for Joe Public to understand than "open". A shop can be "open" i.e. you can use it, but how do you know which train is "open" - whereas Anytime is clear and simple, you can travel at "Any Time".

 

[modernrail]

I would say it ought to be replaced with a proper national railcard scheme instead.

With what qualifying criteria? If available to everybody, is that not just pointless admin cost and should just be the ‘fare’.

I could get on board with a National Rail loyalty scheme, where you get the discount on all fares once you have hit x spending per month or something like that. At the moment you get nothing for being a loyal railway customer over just being a discretionary user.

 

[A0wen]

I would say it ought to be replaced with a proper national railcard scheme instead.

Why ?

Basically all you're doing is subsidising more and more people's travel and unless that increases the number of people travelling to offset that subsidy actually makes the financial position worse not better.

With what qualifying criteria? If available to everybody, is that not just pointless admin cost and should just be the ‘fare’.

I could get on board with a National Rail loyalty scheme, where you get the discount on all fares once you have hit x spending per month or something like that. At the moment you get nothing for being a loyal railway customer over just being a discretionary user.

BIB - you don't get anything for being a "loyal" council tax payer or a "loyal" TV licence fee payer. You don't get loyalty schemes on budget airlines. Why should the rail industry offer such a scheme - except to benefit you personally of course ?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I hate to say this as I use it but I would bin the Network Railcard as part of moving things around. I am not sure why it has even been offered, the off peak fare should be the off peak fare and only the South East has them. It seems to be a card available with the only qualifying requirement being ability to get on a train which doesn’t really fit with the general purpose of railcards which is to help particular user groups.

Railcards are a loyalty scheme plus a means of applying a "tourist tax". I'm convinced SBB for instance think of a reasonable fare, double it and then offer the Halbtax to discount it back

 

[A0wen]

Adding anything onto *any* fares is a non starter if we don't want to push even more people into cars IMO. Rail already can't compete with the cost of fuel here on a railcard discounted return for just me travelling, other than Thameslink only fares to London.

So what ? You make a decision on the best way for you to travel and your circumstances won't be the same as others.

And the fact is there *is* a fare which you've stated is competitive, it's just that you presumably don't like travelling on their trains for some personal reason.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You don't get loyalty schemes on budget airlines.

Actually, easyJet does have one. It's offered only discretionally, but because of having done two flights a week for 2 years plus having put several grand's worth of Scout trips through my account I'm a member of it. It doesn't offer much, the only really useful thing it does is waiving of the change fee for flight changes (which has to be done via the call centre), but it does exist.

 

[modernrail]

Bit in bold - but the term "anytime" is far easier for Joe Public to understand than "open". A shop can be "open" i.e. you can use it, but how do you know which train is "open" - whereas Anytime is clear and simple, you can travel at "Any Time".

Yeah but open fares were never intended to be day return fares were there. That was the egregious slight of hand that took place after privatisation that has plagued the railways ever since. As I say, the chicken is now roosting. Companies will tell people to go virtual for early meetings a lot of the time and people like me who run their own business have never been willing to suck that cost up. As it happens I quite like the habit I have got into of more often than not travelling the day before and staying with friends, but it would lovely to have the flexibility to get…. Ssssh don’t say this too loud… a peak time train, without being well and truly fleeced for the pleasure of trying to get on with some work.

 

[A0wen]

The problem is, unless the treasury gives the industry the freedom a blank cheque to provide the offers that are likely to attract passengers back, they'll never know what potential there is in the current market.

There - fixed it for you.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yeah but open fares were never intended to be day return fares were there. That was the egregious slight of hand that took place after privatisation that has plagued the railways ever since. As I say, the chicken is now roosting. Companies will tell people to go virtual for early meetings a lot of the time and people like me who run their own business have never been willing to suck that cost up. As it happens I quite like the habit I have got into of more often than not travelling the day before and staying with friends, but it would lovely to have the flexibility to get…. Ssssh don’t say this too loud… a peak time train, without being well and truly fleeced for the pleasure of trying to get on with some work.

Anytime replaced Standard (ish, I know First is still there). They used to be Standard Open Return and Standard Day Return, and are now Anytime Return and Anytime Day Return. The word "open" got dropped, but it was a bit misleading anyway as the validity isn't "open", it's one month, so "Anytime One Month Return" would probably be more useful if you wanted to stick it back in.

 

[A0wen]

Yeah but open fares were never intended to be day return fares were there. That was the egregious slight of hand that took place after privatisation that has plagued the railways ever since. As I say, the chicken is now roosting. Companies will tell people to go virtual for early meetings a lot of the time and people like me who run their own business have never been willing to suck that cost up. As it happens I quite like the habit I have got into of more often than not travelling the day before and staying with friends, but it would lovely to have the flexibility to get…. Ssssh don’t say this too loud… a peak time train, without being well and truly fleeced for the pleasure of trying to get on with some work.

The point is a "peak" fare is a "peak" fare for a reason - it's that you are looking to travel at the busiest time on the busiest trains. Funnily enough BR used to charge "peak" fares as well. So it's not some modern construct of the nasty privatised railway. So let's put the tinfoil hats away shall we ?

 

[yorksrob]

With what qualifying criteria? If available to everybody, is that not just pointless admin cost and should just be the ‘fare’.

I could get on board with a National Rail loyalty scheme, where you get the discount on all fares once you have hit x spending per month or something like that. At the moment you get nothing for being a loyal railway customer over just being a discretionary user.

Why ?

Basically all you're doing is subsidising more and more people's travel and unless that increases the number of people travelling to offset that subsidy actually makes the financial position worse not better.



BIB - you don't get anything for being a "loyal" council tax payer or a "loyal" TV licence fee payer. You don't get loyalty schemes on budget airlines. Why should the rail industry offer such a scheme - except to benefit you personally of course ?

It would be available to all, but could be discounted for residents with the current railcard eligibility. It would raise revenue in two ways:

• The cost of the card itself would provide an expanded revenue stream to the railway.
• It would act as a "sunk cost" and encourage holders to make the most of it by purchasing train travel as much as possible.

In terms of the point about increasing the number of people travelling, why do we increase the ability of people to travel by any mode (for example by expanding the road network). Because travel enables society and the economy to function.

 

[A0wen]

Anytime replaced Standard (ish, I know First is still there). They used to be Standard Open Return and Standard Day Return, and are now Anytime Return and Anytime Day Return. The word "open" got dropped, but it was a bit misleading anyway as the validity isn't "open", it's one month, so "Anytime One Month Return" would probably be more useful if you wanted to stick it back in.

But it comes back to what makes sense to Joe Public, particularly as so many more are 'self serving' and buying tickets on line.

So terminology has to be clear to the customer - in days of yore, it didn't really matter because the person in the ticket office would tell them how much it would be having asked about their journey. Frankly if you were selling all tickets via a ticket office you could call it the pink with yellow spot ticket, because the terminology doesn't need to make sense. When you're selling on public facing platforms that's not the case - and in that sense Anytime as a term makes far more sense than Open.

It would be available to all, but could be discounted for residents with the current railcard eligibility. It would raise revenue in two ways:

• The cost of the card itself would provide an expanded revenue stream to the railway.
• It would act as a "sunk cost" and encourage holders to make the most of it by purchasing train travel as much as possible.

Is there any evidence that the current suite of railcards *actually result* in increased revenue ?

In terms of the point about increasing the number of people travelling, why do we increase the ability of people to travel by any mode (for example by expanding the road network). Because travel enables society and the economy to function.

Depends why they are travelling - if they are travelling to or for work, then yes. If they are travelling to an event or to visit somewhere and actually pay for stuff when they get there, then maybe. If on the other hand you're simply subsidising a few people to travel off to the seaside on the cheap and the only thing they buy is a cup of tea and a portion of chips, then frankly it's actually costing the economy more than it's gaining.

 

[modernrail]

The point is a "peak" fare is a "peak" fare for a reason - it's that you are looking to travel at the busiest time on the busiest trains. Funnily enough BR used to charge "peak" fares as well. So it's not some modern construct of the nasty privatised railway. So let's put the tinfoil hats away shall we ?

And every post of mine above agrees there should be peak fares. Although things might have got weird. If current peak fares are putting people off we might have a situation where peak trains are not the busy ones through over-disincentivising people to use them in the new world. Does that mean people travelling to London from Leeds at the weekend because they are the busiest trains should now be charged £250? It seem to be so by your argument.

If we don’t want dynamic pricing, and I personally think that it is to be avoided because people have last minute needs the railway should be able to service without being shafted, then we need to look at where load is settling down, do the maths in a calm , open minded manner and see what may and may not work.

The DfT and Treasury should cut the operating companies some slack to have a play with this, preferably as a cohort rather than individually otherwise we will end up with even more fragmentation of approach.

 

[yorksrob]

Is there any evidence that the current suite of railcards *actually result* in increased revenue ?

Railfuture did the below study many years ago:

Railfuture | National Rail Card

Railfuture

www.railfuture.org.uk

I don't know of any done more recently, but since the central argument is based on human nature, I don't see that it would have changed since then.

Depends why they are travelling - if they are travelling to or for work, then yes. If they are travelling to an event or to visit somewhere and actually pay for stuff when they get there, then maybe. If on the other hand you're simply subsidising a few people to travel off to the seaside on the cheap and the only thing they buy is a cup of tea and a portion of chips, then frankly it's actually costing the economy more than it's gaining.

But the same is true of all transport, yet we don't use this argument against building new roads. In fact I believe increased transport opportunities/time savings are assumed to have a financial benefit generally, regardless of whether Vera is travelling to the coast for a cup of tea.

 

[TravelDream]

I have had the misfortune to use TFW's service on the Marches Line several Saturdays in the last few months. The trains are jam-packed from Manchester to Cardiff and are busy further on too. When I say jam-packed, I mean it. It's not that people are choosing to stand rather than sit next to somebody. There aisles and vestibules are full of people. If you have the misfortune of being on a two-unit train, it's even worse.
Revenue is probably down significantly as there is no way for the guard to get through the train. I've not had my ticket checked even once.

I've also taken the CrossCountry service between Birmingham and Cardiff on a couple of weekday afternoons. It's also been very busy with all seats taken and people standing for a fair amount of the journey. It tends to be a little bit quieter with enough seats for everyone by the time it gets to the border though. The schedule has been butchered so I am not sure what a true reflection of demand is.

South Wales Valley line services are definitely quieter during the morning and evening peak compared to 2019. It's really picking up though to what it was. There are now even standees within the Cardiff city area.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But it comes back to what makes sense to Joe Public, particularly as so many more are 'self serving' and buying tickets on line.

So terminology has to be clear to the customer - in days of yore, it didn't really matter because the person in the ticket office would tell them how much it would be having asked about their journey. Frankly if you were selling all tickets via a ticket office you could call it the pink with yellow spot ticket, because the terminology doesn't need to make sense. When you're selling on public facing platforms that's not the case - and in that sense Anytime as a term makes far more sense than Open.

I completely agree (for once).

It's interesting, though, that you mention the "pink with yellow spot" ticket. Sometimes branding does work in that sort of way, and it's very typically Francais to do that - SNCF loves nothing more than coming up with silly brand names, and when the Orange mobile phone company was French-owned (and not part of now-BT-owned EE) its tariffs were named after animals, not features of them. This does work to some extent - everyone knew what a Saver ticket was, and renaming them to Off Peak hasn't actually been helpful, not least because there are some which are valid at all times (8A and 3A restrictions).

If the brand is strong, it'll work whether it describes the product or not. Coca-Cola is a brand that describes the product - it's a cola drink with coca plant extracts. But neither Fanta nor Sprite describes the product in any way, yet we all know what they are and what they taste like.

 

[Bald Rick]

The problem is, unless the treasury gives the industry the freedom to provide the offers that are likely to attract passengers back, they'll never know what potential there is in the current market.

the industry has some very clever people that have some very clever models that predict the impact of offers etc. They are pretty accurate, and the industry knows what the potential is.

 

[modernrail]

the industry has some very clever people that have some very clever models that predict the impact of offers etc. They are pretty accurate, and the industry knows what the potential is.

Maybe too clever for their own good? I would really appreciate the industry taking this moment to flatten and simplify fares. It should not be about the offers. It should be about the basic, predictable and simple offer.

I don’t mind a bit of demand pricing in advance fares so they go up towards the end of the allocation of seats for advance fares (which I think should be no more than half the train then you are on to standard pricing). But most of it should be simple standard fares with easy to book seating for long distance travel.

Currently these clever people seem to focus on creating absurd results. For instance advance fares that come up as cheapest but are just a few pence less than the relevant off peak flexible fare. That is clever, but it is also out of order and bloody annoying. Has happened to me every single time I have tried to book long distance recently. It is not a computer game and so stop setting it up like one clever people!

 

[A0wen]

Maybe too clever for their own good? I would really appreciate the industry taking this moment to flatten and simplify fares. It should not be about the offers. It should be about the basic, predictable and simple offer.

At the risk of being cynical - does "flatten and simplify" also mean reduce on the off chance ? Because that's probably the opposite of what needs to happen at the moment given the yawning revenue gap there seems to be.

 

[Bletchleyite]

At the risk of being cynical - does "flatten and simplify" also mean reduce on the off chance ? Because that's probably the opposite of what needs to happen at the moment given the yawning revenue gap there seems to be.

He was highlighting a valid point - the "10p Advance game" of TOCs setting Advances 10p below their competitor's needs to stop. It is not real competition nor market differentiation and it brings no benefits whatsoever.

Yes, you, Northern and TPE. And you, LNR and Avanti from MKC to Euston (the longer distance fares are genuine market differentiation).

 

[A0wen]

I completely agree (for once).

It's interesting, though, that you mention the "pink with yellow spot" ticket. Sometimes branding does work in that sort of way, and it's very typically Francais to do that - SNCF loves nothing more than coming up with silly brand names, and when the Orange mobile phone company was French-owned (and not part of now-BT-owned EE) its tariffs were named after animals, not features of them. This does work to some extent - everyone knew what a Saver ticket was, and renaming them to Off Peak hasn't actually been helpful, not least because there are some which are valid at all times (8A and 3A restrictions).

If the brand is strong, it'll work whether it describes the product or not. Coca-Cola is a brand that describes the product - it's a cola drink with coca plant extracts. But neither Fanta nor Sprite describes the product in any way, yet we all know what they are and what they taste like.

Bit in bold - but did they ? What did "Saver" actually mean ? Was it only valid on certain trains or at certain times ? It's another of those ambiguous terms which may be fine if you've got somebody explaining it to you, but less so if not. Whereas "Off Peak" is pretty well understood as most people understand what a "peak period" is - the only issue there is ensuring the "peak times" are clearly marked out somewhere on both the booking engines and the timetables and ideally are consistent across the network rather than having different rules at different places.

 

[JamesT]

On a purely anecdotal level in my office there are two people that commute by rail. Before the pandemic they would both have had season tickets and be in pretty much every day.
Now, one is in a couple of days a week and uses off-peak day returns. The other is in more often and travelling during the peak so they might have started using a season ticket again.

If that's in any way typical then I can easily see that off-peak travel is back up but peak has some way to go.

 

[yorksrob]

the industry has some very clever people that have some very clever models that predict the impact of offers etc. They are pretty accurate, and the industry knows what the potential is.

So clever that LNER, which apparently has more freedom to create offers under DOR than TOC's on management contracts from the DfT, is doing better than all of its DfT straightjacketed rivals ?

 

[modernrail]

At the risk of being cynical - does "flatten and simplify" also mean reduce on the off chance ? Because that's probably the opposite of what needs to happen at the moment given the yawning revenue gap there seems to be.

It means making things simple for a new world.

As somebody who spends thousands a year on the product, I would love it to be as simple as,

Long and Medium Distance

Advance - available until half the train is sold out. Probably the cheapest fares go up from where they are now except on the very least popular trains. If you want a massive bargain you will need to go at a time that allows the magic to happen. Max Advance fare is 70% of equivalent peak or off peak fare for that train. That will stop the ridiculous and out of order game playing that the clever people seem to love.

Advance change to T&Cs - if you miss your train, because there are a 1000 good reasons why you might, you pay the difference in fare between what you paid at the peak/off peak fare for that train.

Off-peak - I am not sure there should be saver and super saver or whatever it is now. Just off-peak. No returns, just singles.

Peak - will it ever be needed again on long distance? Who knows for now. Let’s say there will be some sort of peak though. No returns, just singles. No more than 150% of the off-peak fare.

Season tickets - you can have a 3, 4 , 5 or 7 day a week ticket. They are all pro rata so they give you a saving over singles/day returns.

Offers - rare, if ever. Why do we need offers, the clever people should be able to get the advance fares to do the job of filling the really unpopular seats. For the rest of the trains, reserve capacity for people paying proper fares.

Network Railcard - bin.

Metro services - no advance, no returns, just single off peak and peak fares. Season ticket as above.

Put all that through modelling scenario software tell it what revenue you want from the route and scenario test where you need to set the fixed fares. Let’s see where it comes out. Ideally, set the all the above in regulation so that it is, simple, no game playing.

Your advance fares are your variable to allow you to play around dynamically to hit revenue target on a day to day basis.

Open access - pays its way and has to accept above peak and off peak. Can do what it likes on advance except for the 70% cap which it just keep to.

Now I will prepare to hear a 1000 reasons why that simplicity is on mo way possible in the age of clever people and computers.

 

[Ken H]

On a purely anecdotal level in my office there are two people that commute by rail. Before the pandemic they would both have had season tickets and be in pretty much every day.
Now, one is in a couple of days a week and uses off-peak day returns. The other is in more often and travelling during the peak so they might have started using a season ticket again.

If that's in any way typical then I can easily see that off-peak travel is back up but peak has some way to go.

Of course in days you are in, you can so the first hour at home then get a later cheaper train in. Maybe even work on the train. Kerching!!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

So clever that LNER, which apparently has more freedom to create offers under DOR than TOC's on management contracts from the DfT, is doing better than all of its DfT straightjacketed rivals ?

There still receiving a subsidy every month according to Dep of Transport data sets on spending albeit latest data is only upto Jan 22 so covid restrictions were still crimping demand then.

First MTR SWR was the outlier needing a subsidy of £70m+ a period for Dec 21 and Jan 22 clearly reflecting the loss of season ticket income.

 

[chris_in_salop]

But should we really be encouraging more leisure travel? Leisure demand is often wildly unpredictable. Moreover it doesn't pay its way. Since capacity is finite, surely the railway should be reserved for essential travel, not moving assorted hedonists and layabouts around the country. Doubtless this market could be better served by buses and coaches instead.

 

[modernrail]

There still receiving a subsidy every month according to Dep of Transport data sets on spending albeit latest data is only upto Jan 22 so covid restrictions were still crimping demand then.

First MTR SWR was the outlier needing a subsidy of £70m+ a period for Dec 21 and Jan 22 clearly reflecting the loss of season ticket income.

As I suspected. It’s SWR that is going to be the biggest loser here. It’s whole catchment has changed its patterns more than anywhere else and it’s population in its outer area must be getting older now in any case because it’s too bloody expensive for most people to move out to. Even the metro stuff is mostly through affluent land and so will suffer big time. I reckon the rest of the network in the SE has such a mixed catchment with plenty of young people who don’t have cars it will hold to pretty well.