Rational Plan
Member
- Joined
- 3 Aug 2011
- Messages
- 235
Modern Rail has a focus on London again, though some of the schemes detailed are a bit out there and I think they were doing a bit of a Phil Space exercise. From reading it I get the impression that this most of this is what TFL would like to do, not necessarily what the train operators would want.
Basically all the Olympic work is finishing and the tube upgrade is coming in to the home straight. What to do next?
Thoughts turn to the impact of HS2. Crossrail takeover of the West Coast commuter routes will help, but ideally they'd like Crossrail 2. They might not get Crossrail 2 though at stage 1 of HS2.
So it looks like the DLR will be heading to Euston at the moment. It will be an express tunnel to keep station costs down and to stop it from getting too crowded by the time it reaches Bank. Stations would be City Thameslink, Holborn and Euston with a possibilty of curving back towards St Pancras International. One possible problem is Holborn. It's crowded and they are reluctant for the DLR end up paying for a massive upgrade there.
The DLR to Central London looks like it has priority compared to Dagenham, because of the passenger numbers and they would rather wait for the Royal Docks to be redeveloped first before they worry about Barking Riverside.
Tramlink is back on the agenda. First is the new trams for Central Croydon and then doubling the Wimbledon route. After that Crystal Palace to Bromley, Morden to Sutton and Tooting are all under examination.
London Overground has been a huge success, with passenger numbers up 50%. The opening of the New Stratford Mall has seen passenger numbers increase by 30% in Stratford (65% on Saturdays).
The head of LOROL argues that it is often better to start small and upgrade rather than pitch big. If you pitch for what you need to 20 years time you'll never get the money. If you start small and demonstrate success then subsequent phases will be funded. It's how DLR ended up being created and it's how London Overground will develop.
The next push is 5 carriages, it could happen as early as 2013/14. It's unlikely that 5 cars would go Euston Watford. They might not expand increase the length of the diesels on the Gospel Oak line as they don't want to undermine the BCA for introducing four car electrics.
It also looks at the case for extending the Bakerloo. TFL has a big push on this, but don't expect anything to happen until 2016 at least. The economic case for the extension is not strong under traditional tube only calculations.
Roughly, £1 billion will get you to Peckham, £1.6 billion to Canary Wharf, over £2 billion to Lewisham or Charlton and £3.5 to outer London.
The big question is no one has created a metric for valuing the release of train paths, if the extension took over a railway line.
I'm confused by the article as I thought the route via the Old Kent Road was favoured but it seems to imply Camberwell, Peckham then Lewisham. The problem with this is that going via Camberwell only has a BCA of 1.4:1 compared to 1.9:1 via the Old Kent Road. This is due to it's shorter length and faster journey times foe the outer section to Hayes.
The Pro's of the Bakerloo extension are regeneration, use of an underused tube line cross London, release of train paths into London Bridge.
The cons against are:
Affordability. Any cost overruns on the tube upgrade plan will impact the ability to fund this line. delays will mean that other projects may over take it.
Spending priorities. Crossrail 2 and Hs2 could suck up all the money for a long time. There are no strong lobby groups in favour of the Bakerloo extension.
The most congested routes in South East London are Bromley via Herne Hill and Croydon to London Bridge, not the Lewisham routes.
The economics of replacing one 12 carriage Networker with 2 to 3 tube trains for the same capacity.
Value of Money. The DFT usually wants a scheme to get a BCR of 2:1 for a new scheme.
Also there was a hint that thoughts of Crossrail 2 being an automated Metro a la Ligne 14 in Paris. That might suit TFL not sure how Network Rail would feel about it.
There is some interesting blurb on the Northern line upgrade and then we get to the bizarre schemes! More in part 2
Basically all the Olympic work is finishing and the tube upgrade is coming in to the home straight. What to do next?
Thoughts turn to the impact of HS2. Crossrail takeover of the West Coast commuter routes will help, but ideally they'd like Crossrail 2. They might not get Crossrail 2 though at stage 1 of HS2.
So it looks like the DLR will be heading to Euston at the moment. It will be an express tunnel to keep station costs down and to stop it from getting too crowded by the time it reaches Bank. Stations would be City Thameslink, Holborn and Euston with a possibilty of curving back towards St Pancras International. One possible problem is Holborn. It's crowded and they are reluctant for the DLR end up paying for a massive upgrade there.
The DLR to Central London looks like it has priority compared to Dagenham, because of the passenger numbers and they would rather wait for the Royal Docks to be redeveloped first before they worry about Barking Riverside.
Tramlink is back on the agenda. First is the new trams for Central Croydon and then doubling the Wimbledon route. After that Crystal Palace to Bromley, Morden to Sutton and Tooting are all under examination.
London Overground has been a huge success, with passenger numbers up 50%. The opening of the New Stratford Mall has seen passenger numbers increase by 30% in Stratford (65% on Saturdays).
The head of LOROL argues that it is often better to start small and upgrade rather than pitch big. If you pitch for what you need to 20 years time you'll never get the money. If you start small and demonstrate success then subsequent phases will be funded. It's how DLR ended up being created and it's how London Overground will develop.
The next push is 5 carriages, it could happen as early as 2013/14. It's unlikely that 5 cars would go Euston Watford. They might not expand increase the length of the diesels on the Gospel Oak line as they don't want to undermine the BCA for introducing four car electrics.
It also looks at the case for extending the Bakerloo. TFL has a big push on this, but don't expect anything to happen until 2016 at least. The economic case for the extension is not strong under traditional tube only calculations.
Roughly, £1 billion will get you to Peckham, £1.6 billion to Canary Wharf, over £2 billion to Lewisham or Charlton and £3.5 to outer London.
The big question is no one has created a metric for valuing the release of train paths, if the extension took over a railway line.
I'm confused by the article as I thought the route via the Old Kent Road was favoured but it seems to imply Camberwell, Peckham then Lewisham. The problem with this is that going via Camberwell only has a BCA of 1.4:1 compared to 1.9:1 via the Old Kent Road. This is due to it's shorter length and faster journey times foe the outer section to Hayes.
The Pro's of the Bakerloo extension are regeneration, use of an underused tube line cross London, release of train paths into London Bridge.
The cons against are:
Affordability. Any cost overruns on the tube upgrade plan will impact the ability to fund this line. delays will mean that other projects may over take it.
Spending priorities. Crossrail 2 and Hs2 could suck up all the money for a long time. There are no strong lobby groups in favour of the Bakerloo extension.
The most congested routes in South East London are Bromley via Herne Hill and Croydon to London Bridge, not the Lewisham routes.
The economics of replacing one 12 carriage Networker with 2 to 3 tube trains for the same capacity.
Value of Money. The DFT usually wants a scheme to get a BCR of 2:1 for a new scheme.
Also there was a hint that thoughts of Crossrail 2 being an automated Metro a la Ligne 14 in Paris. That might suit TFL not sure how Network Rail would feel about it.
There is some interesting blurb on the Northern line upgrade and then we get to the bizarre schemes! More in part 2
Last edited: