Yet more freight to use HS1 (which was never included in any of the models):
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/...view/more-freight-to-run-on-high-speed-1.html
This means that although HS1 maybe underused in passenger numbers compared with the model it is now being used fairly heavily (for a passenger only line) for freight. As such, although models of usage are not always overly accurate, there are also some things which are not predicted which results in it being used more than expected.
Therefore, even if (and I doubt it very much based on passenger growth since 2009) passenger growth doesn't reach the levels in the model we could well see freight being carried which would be an unexpected benefit.
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/...view/more-freight-to-run-on-high-speed-1.html
DB Schenker Rail (UK) introduced additional freight services on High Speed 1 from January 13, carrying automotive components and refrigerated containers of perishable foodstuffs from Spain to London via the Channel Tunnel.
DB Schenker Rail (UK) has a track access contract with HS1 for an initial six months, and both parties intend this to continue. DB Schenker Rail (UK) already operates twice-weekly return services to and from Poland.
'This is a big step up for freight on HS1, and is an area in which we continue to grow', said HS1 Ltd Chief Executive Nicola Shaw. The contract 'demonstrates the value of the high speed network in the UK', with the ability to provide a seamless service to the shippers using standard European wagons which are too large for the rest of the UK national network.
This means that although HS1 maybe underused in passenger numbers compared with the model it is now being used fairly heavily (for a passenger only line) for freight. As such, although models of usage are not always overly accurate, there are also some things which are not predicted which results in it being used more than expected.
Therefore, even if (and I doubt it very much based on passenger growth since 2009) passenger growth doesn't reach the levels in the model we could well see freight being carried which would be an unexpected benefit.