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Londoners will riot if squeeze on public transport gets any worse, TfL boss warns

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Mutant Lemming

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Its still less than its peak in the 40's

Nonsense - public transport may have carried more people but private cars were a fraction of what they are today and they account for well over half of journies outside of zone 1.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
What does it matter the ethnic origins; London is the premier global capital, with by far the largest number of tourist visitors in Europe, and a booming economy. They are all people and they need to move about the city. The rate of growth appears to be accelerating so the transport planning has to keep pace with that, but that is not an excuse to suggest it will lead to civil insurrection.
.

Call me selfish if you like but I don't like the idea of London turning in to a dangerous megalopolis like Sao Paulo or Mexico City. It is becoming a magnet for the disparate and the desperate from all over Europe and beyond. Even the official figures are miles out and don't account for the many illegals here.
 
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Olaf

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Call me selfish if you like but I don't like the idea of London turning in to a dangerous megalopolis like Sao Paulo or Mexico City. It is becoming a magnet for the disparate and the desperate from all over Europe and beyond. Even the official figures are miles out and don't account for the many illegals here.

It sounds like it may come as a surprise to you, but this is nothing new in the history of London, and it has always managed to survive.
 

AM9

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Nonsense - public transport may have carried more people but private cars were a fraction of what they are today and they account for well over half of journies outside of zone 1.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Call me selfish if you like but I don't like the idea of London turning in to a dangerous megalopolis like Sao Paulo or Mexico City. It is becoming a magnet for the disparate and the desperate from all over Europe and beyond. Even the official figures are miles out and don't account for the many illegals here.

Well it sounds like you have better infomation than everybody else so can you please share the figures (including numbers of illegals) with us all?
 

yorksrob

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It sounds like it may come as a surprise to you, but this is nothing new in the history of London, and it has always managed to survive.

And London has had many riots and rebellions down the centuries as well.

The low wages/high housing costs problem will have to be dealt with eventually.
 

Deerfold

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That is one ward, bordering the Government and administration districts along with a substantial rented/leased property market.

There are figures for St James's Ward, Westminster, London and the UK. They show that the number of British in London is much higher than 50%.
 
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Metrailway

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According to the 2011 Census, there were 8,173,941 living in Greater London, with 3,669,284 (44.9% of population) describing themselves as "White: English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British".

See table KS201ew.xls on the ONS website.

75.3% in London identify themselves using at least one of English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British identities only according to table-ks202ew.xls on the ONS website.
 
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Rapidash

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Nonsense - public transport may have carried more people but private cars were a fraction of what they are today and they account for well over half of journies outside of zone 1.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


I wasn't talking about rail journeys when talking about population, I was talking the actual population of London see this FT blog

It’s often said that London is “full up”. But is this true?

At 8.3m people – more than 13 per cent of the total British population – London is booming. Many fear the pressure this is putting on services, infrastructure and housing. Heathrow airport is struggling to keep up with demand.

But the population of London isn’t that big, in relative terms – it isn’t even at a historic high.

London reached its biggest size to date in 1939, when its population topped 8.6m people.

On current projections, the city is set to reach this level once more at the end of next year, 2014. The London mayor’s office now forecasts that London’s population will reach 10m by 2030.

It only began its current growth spurt in the 1990s – before that, London’s population had been falling since the Second World War.

Also includes some graphs with Evidence! (TM)
 

Tetchytyke

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It is becoming a magnet for the disparate and the desperate from all over Europe and beyond. Even the official figures are miles out and don't account for the many illegals here.

London always has been and always will be, right back to Roman times.

If you're someone who doesn't like people from many different cultures and backgrounds living near you, then London really isn't the city for you. It never was.

Though I'd be interested in your evidence for the claim that "the official figures are miles out". Nigel Farage-style nonsense about foreign languages spoken on the tube doesn't count.
 

Deerfold

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Then take it up with the author of the piece.

Wow, you're very sensitive. I thought it followed on from what you'd said - there was no criticism of you meant - I'm aware you didn't pick the period of comparison. I thought this entire thread was for discussion of the quoted article and unaware that some points had to be referred to the original author.
 
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starrymarkb

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And London has had many riots and rebellions down the centuries as well.

The low wages/high housing costs problem will have to be dealt with eventually.

Agree, something is going to force a correction and I suspect it won't be a big wage rise.

My Cousin and her bloke (QC and Stockbroker respectivly) paid £750k for a 1970s detached in Wanstead - elsewhere it would probably be £100-200k! (they want to knock it down and replace it with a modern monstrosity with desirable address. Part of me hopes the correction will come soon)
 
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jon0844

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What's the betting that we see some people hit hard, such as those who were encouraged to buy property in the late 1990s and early 2000s, while the speculators who buy the properties that sit empty will somehow manage to sell up and move their money elsewhere 'just in time'?

House prices are insane. The conversions people are doing to make properties smaller by adding bedrooms, or dividing up into different flats/houses, is also creating horrible properties that people only live in because they can't afford anywhere better. New builds are bordering on criminal in terms of how small they are - but sell for the same reasons.

People should of course refuse to buy or rent these places, but that won't happen when there's such demand.

I don't know what can be done, or when it might be done, but something needs to be done. No Government wants to tackle it though. At most we get talk of building new homes, and councils put under pressure to build more - and that means we get more and more tiny properties and conversions that everyone knows are **** but it helps alleviate a problem so everyone (or those in a position to do something) turns a blind eye. Most likely because a lot of these people have nice properties of their own, and maybe have plans to also make money by investing in conversions and new builds and get on the gravy train.
 

Robertj21a

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Either properties will be priced out of the general market (as is already happening in some areas) or businesses will find they can't recruit suitable staff - which will encourage some of them to move the business out to a more reasonably priced location.

It's happened before, it's not rocket science.
 

radamfi

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Until 10-20 years ago, cities in the UK were places that people wanted to move out of and all the major conurbations lost populations for many decades. From 1951 to 1991, Greater London's population dropped from 8.1 to 6.9 million.

So it is a relatively recent fashion to move into cities again. London is not the only one 'suffering' from this urban renaissance. Manchester's population increased a fair bit between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. The Greater Manchester Built Up Area overtook the West Midlands Built Up Area in population in 2011:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._populous_built-up_areas_in_England_and_Wales

(Note the ceremonial county of West Midlands still has more people than Greater Manchester)

So, who knows, this relatively recent explosion in big city population may not continue for as long as people seem to think it will. It might just be a fad.

It is also worth mentioning that the vast majority of the UK population do not live in London or even the wider South East. That majority aren't all unemployed. They may even have a better quality of life, despite not earning as much as their metropolitan counterparts. So if you feel like London is making you want to riot, move out. Even if you feel hard done by because you resent having to move from London to Stoke-on-Trent, you are still one of the luckiest people in the world, able to live in a wealthy western country. A privilege denied to most of the world's citizens.

There are millions in the South East with vast equity in their properties who could simply cash that in for a mortgage free life in the rest of the UK, or even better, take advantage of the EU's freedom of movement, move to central/eastern Europe and never need to work again.
 

Busaholic

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Can we stick to facts here? It was never intended that bus companies buy the NB4L. Oh and the hop on/off facility does happen............try the 11 or 24 route for example. Oh and passengers seem to love them:roll:

If you feel unable or unwilling to join in the debate caused by Sir Peter's words, that's fine by me, but I'll stick to facts too here and now, at least as I interpret them.

When the NB4L was being developed there was no mention of who would be the actual purchasers of the vehicles, only that TfL would guarantee a minimum number that would be required on contracts with this specification. As all London bus contracts (bar the handful of Routemasters on 'heritage' services) are worked by private operators who have to provide their own buses to TfL specification, it was a reasonable assumption that this state of affairs would prevail with the NB4L, as I am sure would have happened if the private operators (Stagecoach, Arriva and Go-Ahead, etc) had agreed to play ball. When it became clear they weren't interested in owning vehicles that would be a hugely-depreciating liability after London service, TfL had to rapidly introduce Plan B to save the Mayor's face = buy the buses themselves and pretend this had been the intention all along, thus incurring huge additional costs for TfL upfront.

As regards the hop on/off element of these buses, I was waiting to be challenged by someone. When Boris was doing all his proseletizing for the 'new Routemaster' it was all on the back of the open rear entrance/exit enabling passengers to hop on and off at will, just like in the days up to 2005.There would be the return of the reassuring presence of a conductor seven days a week, except in the evenings when the rear door would be kepr closed in between stops. When the 24 became the first route to be fully converted to the type, it was on this basis, except that from day one the 'conductors' were told to remain on the platform at all times and only allow entry and exit when they deemed safe to do so, for public safety reasons and also because of the increasing accident litigation. This became exacerbated very shortly afterwards when a serious injury occurred to a passenger and word went out that, despite what Johnson had promised, this was an unrealisable fantasy.

The second NB4L route had already been chosen (the 11) and duly went ahead, seven days a week, but shortly afterwards the 24 lost its weekend 'conductor' operation and the next route (the 9) was only M-F in conductor mode. Now we have the situation where route after route (the 390, 148, 453 and,shortly, the 8) have NO conductors and no open platform at all on any time of day or day of the week, so what has it all been about? As for passengers liking them, this is subjective and I quite like the look, particularly the curvaceous rear end, but a lot of people find them oppressive inside, particularly upstairs, with windows far too small and way too hot in the summer: with the two staircases and the wheelchair space the downstairs is lamentably lacking in seats and what they do have are bizarrely spaced. There are other threads on the buses section of this forum with plenty of comments along these lines.

It's hard to conclude the NB4L has been anything than one man's vanity project that will cost Londoners dear in future years when he is long gone to Uxbridge or pastures more tempting still.
 

Robertj21a

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Any reason for excluding the 38 ? - it was, after all, the original route that tested out the concept and has now become 100% operated by them.
 

ivanhoe

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The single bus fare using Oyster PAYG has gone up from 90p in late 2007 to £1.45 now.

There are many of us in the Provence's who would vote for any party that offered 1.45 bus fares. Most of us are used to fares in the region of £2 per journey. Certainly the case in Loughborough for PAYG. London has a great transport system in comparison to the rest of the country.
 

Busaholic

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Any reason for excluding the 38 ? - it was, after all, the original route that tested out the concept and has now become 100% operated by them.

The reason I left it out was that its pattern of operation has become almost schizophrenic and you can draw a conclusion to suit any argument with it. I suppose it is being used as a testbed still, but not quite sure of what.
 

ScotGG

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There are many of us in the Provence's who would vote for any party that offered 1.45 bus fares. Most of us are used to fares in the region of £2 per journey. Certainly the case in Loughborough for PAYG. London has a great transport system in comparison to the rest of the country.

Campaign for devolution and local power is my suggestion. You're not going to get very much from Westminster. A strong local government with actual power would invigorate the electorate, and be far more likely to implement such a policy. How would they fund it? By having local tax, spending & borrowing powers as cities do across the developed world, and by not being forced to spend money on things the locals don't want but Westminster dictates.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
What's the betting that we see some people hit hard, such as those who were encouraged to buy property in the late 1990s and early 2000s, while the speculators who buy the properties that sit empty will somehow manage to sell up and move their money elsewhere 'just in time'?

House prices are insane. The conversions people are doing to make properties smaller by adding bedrooms, or dividing up into different flats/houses, is also creating horrible properties that people only live in because they can't afford anywhere better. New builds are bordering on criminal in terms of how small they are - but sell for the same reasons.

People should of course refuse to buy or rent these places, but that won't happen when there's such demand.

I don't know what can be done, or when it might be done, but something needs to be done. No Government wants to tackle it though. At most we get talk of building new homes, and councils put under pressure to build more - and that means we get more and more tiny properties and conversions that everyone knows are **** but it helps alleviate a problem so everyone (or those in a position to do something) turns a blind eye. Most likely because a lot of these people have nice properties of their own, and maybe have plans to also make money by investing in conversions and new builds and get on the gravy train.

A great deal of MPs own at least two homes. Many (around a third) are into buy to let. They have vested interests in keeping rents and prices high and immigration up to sustain demand.

And the UK economy has become so entangled with housing and utterly dependent on it that any drop will decimate banks and the wider economy.

You can't blame councils though for not building. Thatcher banned them in the 80s, Labour continued that policy for 13 years and the coalition are exactly the same. Vested interests in restricting demand.

The thing is, increasing population and restricted demand have pushed up the housing benefit bill to £24 BILLION a year last year - up £3 billion since 2011. Not great when the country is borrowing £100 billion a year, but vested interests come first.
 
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HSTEd

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Any politician who suggests that house prices should fall or remain static (nominally, with depreciation by inflationary pressures) will automatically lose the next election.

People are all for cheaper housing until the homeowners realise this will depreciate the asset that they assumed would provide them with a substitute pension, freeing them from the drag of actually contributing to one.

And this is why the problem will never be solved.
 

Olaf

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And London has had many riots and rebellions down the centuries as well.

The low wages/high housing costs problem will have to be dealt with eventually.

Yes, it is called market forces and they always prevail.
 

yorksrob

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Yes, it is called market forces and they always prevail.

Waiting for the market fairies to wave their magic wands and make everything alright again isn't going to work in this case.

This is looking like a serious market failure and Government will be compelled to intervene one way or another.
 
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NSEFAN

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Olaf said:
Yes, it is called market forces and they always prevail.
These very market forces create the wasteful situation whereby expensive luxury flats remain empty, whilst affordable housing is almost nowhere to be seen. As a result, people are having to commute further and put extra strain on the transport network. Not exactly efficient, is it?
 

radamfi

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These very market forces create the wasteful situation whereby expensive luxury flats remain empty, whilst affordable housing is almost nowhere to be seen. As a result, people are having to commute further and put extra strain on the transport network. Not exactly efficient, is it?

In a normal housing slump, prices are held up somewhat by the fact that people still need to live somewhere. Where people have merely been parking their money in exclusive apartments, in the next downturn, that money could be taken out faster than it was put in, which could lead to a significant fall in prices.
 

Greenback

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Market forces simply cannot be trusted to solve problems. In fact, they will often exacerbate them, at least in the short term.
 

Antman

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If you feel unable or unwilling to join in the debate caused by Sir Peter's words, that's fine by me, but I'll stick to facts too here and now, at least as I interpret them.

When the NB4L was being developed there was no mention of who would be the actual purchasers of the vehicles, only that TfL would guarantee a minimum number that would be required on contracts with this specification. As all London bus contracts (bar the handful of Routemasters on 'heritage' services) are worked by private operators who have to provide their own buses to TfL specification, it was a reasonable assumption that this state of affairs would prevail with the NB4L, as I am sure would have happened if the private operators (Stagecoach, Arriva and Go-Ahead, etc) had agreed to play ball. When it became clear they weren't interested in owning vehicles that would be a hugely-depreciating liability after London service, TfL had to rapidly introduce Plan B to save the Mayor's face = buy the buses themselves and pretend this had been the intention all along, thus incurring huge additional costs for TfL upfront.

As regards the hop on/off element of these buses, I was waiting to be challenged by someone. When Boris was doing all his proseletizing for the 'new Routemaster' it was all on the back of the open rear entrance/exit enabling passengers to hop on and off at will, just like in the days up to 2005.There would be the return of the reassuring presence of a conductor seven days a week, except in the evenings when the rear door would be kepr closed in between stops. When the 24 became the first route to be fully converted to the type, it was on this basis, except that from day one the 'conductors' were told to remain on the platform at all times and only allow entry and exit when they deemed safe to do so, for public safety reasons and also because of the increasing accident litigation. This became exacerbated very shortly afterwards when a serious injury occurred to a passenger and word went out that, despite what Johnson had promised, this was an unrealisable fantasy.

The second NB4L route had already been chosen (the 11) and duly went ahead, seven days a week, but shortly afterwards the 24 lost its weekend 'conductor' operation and the next route (the 9) was only M-F in conductor mode. Now we have the situation where route after route (the 390, 148, 453 and,shortly, the 8) have NO conductors and no open platform at all on any time of day or day of the week, so what has it all been about? As for passengers liking them, this is subjective and I quite like the look, particularly the curvaceous rear end, but a lot of people find them oppressive inside, particularly upstairs, with windows far too small and way too hot in the summer: with the two staircases and the wheelchair space the downstairs is lamentably lacking in seats and what they do have are bizarrely spaced. There are other threads on the buses section of this forum with plenty of comments along these lines.

It's hard to conclude the NB4L has been anything than one man's vanity project that will cost Londoners dear in future years when he is long gone to Uxbridge or pastures more tempting still.

Why would Stagecoach want to buy the NB4L? If they lose route 8 when it is next retendered what would they do with the buses? Surely it is far simpler for TfL to own them and they can reallocate them to whoever wins the tender?

The hop on/off facilty is great and as we all know traffic in the west end traffic can grind to a halt at the drop of a hat. I think it was always intended that the conductor would remain on the platform where they can answer questions and assist elerley and disabled people. Most people have oystercards so there is little need for the conductor to tour the bus.

I do think it is is ridiculous that routes like the 8 and 148 have no conductors and no open platform 24/7, it totally defeats the purpose of these buses.
 

slipdigby

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So it is a relatively recent fashion to move into cities again. London is not the only one 'suffering' from this urban renaissance. Manchester's population increased a fair bit between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. The Greater Manchester Built Up Area overtook the West Midlands Built Up Area in population in 2011:

<snip>

So, who knows, this relatively recent explosion in big city population may not continue for as long as people seem to think it will. It might just be a fad.

Mass inner-city depopulation was a very English (and US) trend. If anything the return of large high density populations to many of these urban cores is a return to the international norm rather than a reflection of any particular fad.

Also it is worth differentiating between the case of the city centres and the wider urban area. Much of the population and density of the wider area centred on Manchester is still at a historically low level. Large swathes of East Manchester and Salford for example still lie fallow. There is plenty of room for continued expansion (indeed, Abu Dubai United Group and the council recently announced a JV for 6,000 homes around Ancoats). This is not the case with London where significant housing and development pressures extend out well beyond the M25.

Best,
Slip
 

Busaholic

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Why would Stagecoach want to buy the NB4L? If they lose route 8 when it is next retendered what would they do with the buses? Surely it is far simpler for TfL to own them and they can reallocate them to whoever wins the tender?

The hop on/off facilty is great and as we all know traffic in the west end traffic can grind to a halt at the drop of a hat. I think it was always intended that the conductor would remain on the platform where they can answer questions and assist elerley and disabled people. Most people have oystercards so there is little need for the conductor to tour the bus.

I do think it is is ridiculous that routes like the 8 and 148 have no conductors and no open platform 24/7, it totally defeats the purpose of these buses.

I am in almost total agreement with you - unless these buses are used as originally intended there is no point to them. Of course Stagecoach wouldn't want them (and if any company were to make use of them post-London it would most likely be them). It all goes to show, imo, that too much power can reside in one person whomever that is and their actions can have llasting effects long after they've departed the stage, to be paid for by the taxpayer or passenger for many years to come. I'm not making a party political point: look at the disastrous PFI policies of the last Labour government and the impact on Underground services which are still being felt.
 

Greenback

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Mass inner-city depopulation was a very English (and US) trend. If anything the return of large high density populations to many of these urban cores is a return to the international norm rather than a reflection of any particular fad.

That's true, and it would not be a bad thing if the housing in the urban core was a mixture of affordable housing for all income levels and not just a preponderance of high end luxury flats and town houses.

The pressure on transport and other services in London is because of the simple fact that many of those that have to work in the central core can only afford to live quite a way outside.
 

radamfi

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Manchester's improved economic situation does show that you don't necessarily need to live and work in the SE to get on in life. Manchester is getting expensive in certain parts but you don't HAVE to live in those areas. There are still many areas with good transport links where housing is very cheap.

Improved transport links also don't necessarily make somewhere expensive. Look at Coventry or Gravesend (both with frequent, fast trains to London).
 
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